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Sobie: Proceedings of Annual Meetings 2012 SOBIE: PROCEEDINGS OF ANNUAL MEETINGS Compiled and Edited by: Dr. Vivek Bhargava Alcorn State University Editorial Assistant: Praveen Ponnaganti Alcorn State University Proceedings of the Society of Business, Industry and Economics (SOBIE) Annual Meetings April 17 – 20, 2012 Destin, Florida PAPERS A Data Mining Model or an Effective Trading System…………………………………………...4 Ahmed Gomaa,Daniel Sputa and Rex Dumdum Performance of HBCUs on the CPA Examination for the Year 2010………………………….. 12 Forrest Thompson and Clifford Marshall Florida’s Poverty at a Glance…………………………………………………………………….24 Fesseha Gebremikael, Teshome Gabre and Les Hurley The Measurement of Channel Operations Results by a Comparison with Expectations………. 32 Dr. Kenneth W. H. Day Foreign and Domestic Students: Uncertainty Avoidance versus the Stereotype………………...41 Alan Wright and Doris Wright 401(k) Participation and Contribution Levels: The Influence of Stock Market Performance…...49 Joseph A. Newman and Peng Dang Cloud Computing: The Perfect Storm…………………………………………………………...63 Danny Halterman, Teresa Huffman, Rod Sizemore and Quintin Williams Sustaining Lean Tool Initiatives with A3 Management Techniques…………………………….90 Daniel Halterman Classroom Antics: Fun with a Purpose…………………………………………………………..98 David E. Deviney, John Crawford and Kevin L. Elder Issues of War, Health and Politics: A Case Study on the 1944 U.S. Presidential Election…….104 R. Bryan Kennedy, Susan D. Herring, Eddy Burks, Lisa Rich, Linda Shonesy and Teresa Wanbaugh Availability of Employee Assistance Program (EAP) Services………………………………..109 SOBIE 2012 Page 1 R. Bryan Kennedy, Susan D. Herring, Eddy Burks, Lisa Rich, Linda Shonesy and Teresa Wanbaugh State of the Art Business Intelligence Curriculum……………………………………………..118 Kevin Lee Elder, John Dyer and Ronald J. MacKinnon A Meta-Analytic Review of the Consequences of Servant Leadership………………………...130 D. Scott Kiker and Mary B. Kiker Online Stockbrokers: A Comparison of Fees and Services……………………………………144 Raymond M. Johnson and Joseph A. Newman The Evolving Role of the Physician Executive………………………………………………...151 Sam D. Cappel, Avinash Waikar and Anthony Greico Teaching College MicroEconomics: Online Vs. Traditional Classroom Instruction…………..155 Shawn Carter, Cynthia McCarty and Doris Bennett Market Breakdown of the Declining Marginal Reaction of ADR Issuers……………………...166 C. Alan Blaylock Information, Prediction Market, and NCAA Basketball Attendance: The Big East Conference……………………………………………………………………………………...177 Rodney J. Paul, Andrew P. Weinbach and Jon Plaut Georgia-Pacific: Water, Carbon & Waste……………………………………………………...190 Rachael Cragle and M. Kenneth Holt Implementation of and Relative Satisfaction with GASB Statement No. 34…………………..195 Dr. Michael Bennett Amspaugh The Banking Boom: A Comprehensive Study on Bank Failure in the State of Arizona from 2009-2011……………………………………………………………………………………....222 Kimberly L. Franklin and Stephen K. Lacewell Student Perceptions of Credibility and Enhancing the Integrity of Online Business Courses: A Case Study……………………………………………………………………………………...250 Michael P. Watters, Paul J. “Jep” Robertson and Renae K. Clark Adventures in Teaching Sports Marketing ......………………………………………………...266 P J Forrest Sensitivity of Stock Market Return, Oil Prices, and Exchange Rates to TED Spread.........…...270 Akash Dania and Clyde Posey SOBIE 2012 Page 2 Regionalism with Consumption Externalities………………………………………..........…...282 Manabendra Dasgupta and Seung Dong Lee ABSTRACTS SOBIE 2012 Service Learning in an Information Systems Course…………………………….291 Elder, Rutner & MacKinnon Overnight and Weekend Gold Returns…………………………………………………………292 Laurence E. Blose Best Practices for On-line Course Delivery…………………………………………………….293 Alice Batch and Nina Goza Preventing Academic Dishonesty………………………………………………………………294 Kevin Mason, Alice Batch and Nina Goza Academic Honor Code and Student Cheating: A Comparison of In-Class and Online Student Attitudes……………………………………………………………………………………...…295 Genie Black Student versus Faculty Perceptions of Factors that Impact Cheating in the Classroom……......296 Genie Black A Case of Fraud: Phoenix House……………………………………………………………….297 Charles J. Russo, Lasse Mertins and Charles L. Martin Jr. Would Sox Like Provisions for Municipal Governments Have Prevented the Jefferson County Bankruptcy? ................................................................................................................................298 Cynthia Sneed and John Sneed Does Investing in Pharmaceutical Sector Provide Diversification Benefits? .............................300 Akash Dania, Clyde Posey SOBIE 2012 Page 3 A Data Mining Model or an Effective Trading System Ahmed Gomaa, Marywood University Daniel Sputa, Marywood University Rex Dumdum, Marywood University Abstract This research identifies the weight and threshold of financial statement ratios for predicting the future stock direction. The predictions are on a quarterly basis. The paper takes a contrarian strategy position. The investors may use the results during the fundamental analysis phase of an investment. Several Data mining models are used to identify the most relevant variables, with strongest predictability. The results suggested that the Association rule model have a 71.43% accurate predictability on the stock direction looking at a handful number of variables. We placed our analysis on the published financial statement for five previous years of 100 companies listed in the S&P 500 index. Introduction During the investment decision process, investors attempt to predict the stock price direction. Several analysis methods are used including fundamental analysis (Bushee, 1997), technical analysis (Robert Davis Edwards, 2007) and behavioral analysis (Subrahmanyam, 2008) to reach a decision that is most likely correct. During this analysis process, investors select different variables to look at. The variable selection process is usually a based on the investor experience and strategy. For instance, Marywood University in Scranton, Pennsylvania, runs The Pacer Investment Fund. The fund is “an innovative answer to the ongoing challenge of translating academic learning into real-world success.” Selected graduate students, under the supervision of department chair, invest real money into the stocks and manage the overall performance of the portfolio. Graduate students receive suggestions for investments from undergraduate students who prepare investment proposals for potential investment in companies traded in stock markets. The Pacer Investment Team tried to invest to the valued stocks with long term profitability, thus mostly follow contrarian strategy (Chan, 1988). The Pacer Investment fund decisions start with fundamental analysis, where yearly financial statements of each company are discussed; variety of ratios calculated and then decided if the company is in good financial health. The following step is to look at the technical analysis and discuss the stock price development over time, investigating the possibilities that a certain stock price grow in short and long term time period. Lastly, the team of managers discusses potential market changes based on economic, political, cultural, social, and any other factors that influence the investors’ decisions, thus incorporating behavioral analysis to the final decision. SOBIE 2012 Page 4 Therefore it is crucial, that each stage in the decision is based on correct and valid data and assumptions. Research Problem The challenge in the fundamental analysis phase is identifying the importance of each variable in influencing the stock price direction. In addition, it is a challenge for the investors to determine the threshold each variable should attain to predict if the price of the stock will go in a certain direction with a known level of predictability. The goal of this paper is to identify the most important variables that affect the stock price direction during the fundamental analysis phase and to determine the associated threshold of each identified variable. In this paper we focus on the contrarian investment strategy to assure a stable growth of the fund with controlled risks. Related Work Investigating previous researches on contrarian strategies, many authors describe the strategy by building portfolios of variety of companies based on some variables, and tested their performance over the time. However, none of those papers really explain the reasons for using certain variables in constructing their portfolios. For example, (Chan, 1988), builds portfolios and measures the performance based on Beta and Market Risk Premium, (Josef Lakonishok, 1994) builds portfolios and measures the performance based on Earning/Price Ratio, Book/market Value of Equity, Cash Flow/Price and Growth rates. Another example, (Robert J. Hill, 2010) builds portfolios and measures the performance based on Market Returns, beta, CAPM. However, no clear evidence was found to explain why those particular variables have been selected. Therefore our goal is to determine what variables to consider when analyzing financial statements to achieve our objective. In order to investigate the dependency of variables on the stock prices, many data mining models may be considered including as Naïve Bayes (Greiner, 2001) Decision Trees (Quinlan, 1987), Neural Networks (K I Diamantaras, 1996), Association Rules (Ramakrishnan Srikant, 1996), and Logistic Regression (David W. Hosmer, 2000) among others. Methodology We placed our analysis on the published financial statements for
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