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Briefing Residential Sales Savills World Research Hong Kong Briefi ng Residential sales August 2017 Image: Plantation Road, The Peak SUMMARY Buoyant market sentiment has propelled luxury prices to historical highs. Luxury sales volumes rebounded While there are some parallels over the second quarter as the Hang between today and 1997, the chances "Luxury sales volumes Seng rose and real interest rates of a similar crash in property values remained low. remains unlikely without an external rebounded in Q2 on the back shock of the kind which precipitated of a rising stock market and The few luxury launches available crises in both 1997 and 2008. in the primary market gathered pace. low real interest rates. With In today's market there are some the impact of new restrictive Both townhouse and luxury obvious similarities to pre-crisis 1997 apartment prices continued to rise to with record prices and low levels measures receding and supply reach new heights. of affordability. Despite this we are unlikely to see a market crash but a remaining tight, luxury prices Looking ahead, luxury prices cyclical peak looks to be within sight. look set to head north over the are expected to rise further this year remainder of 2017." even as the current rally begins to look rather frayed. Simon Smith, Savills Research savills.com.hk/research 01 Briefi ng | Hong Kong residential sales July 2017 Overview GRAPH 1 Luxury volumes rebounded on the Luxury apartment price indices by district on Hong back of a booming stock market, Kong Island, Q1/2003–Q2/2017 which saw the Hang Seng Index rising from 24,000 in early April to Mid-Levels Pokfulam The Peak Happy Valley/Jardines Lookout Southside/Shouson Hill 500 27,000 in mid-July. The low interest rate environment remains, and local 450 banks continue to offer attractive 400 mortgage packages even as the 350 US Fed has raised interest rates 300 four times since the end of 2015. 250 Luxury transaction volumes on Hong 200 Kong Island and in Kowloon / New Q1/2003 = 100 Territories reached 202 and 269 in 150 Q2/2017 respectively, a 44% and 100 55% QoQ increase. 50 0 While the number of luxury primary Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 launches in Q2 were fewer than 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 during recent quarters, the projects Source: Savills Research & Consultancy which are on the market saw increased sales momentum. On GRAPH 2 Hong Kong Island, after selling a Luxury transaction volumes by district on Hong batch of six units for HK$758.8 Kong Island, Q1/2012–Q2/2017 million in Q1/2017, Altamira in Mid-Levels West saw another four Happy Valley / Jardine's Lookout Mid-Levels The Peak Pokfulam Southside 300 units sold in June and July for over HK$120 million each. 250 Across the harbour, the launch of 200 Parc Inverness in Kowloon Tong towards the end of April received 150 an overwhelming response with 79 of the 96 fi rst launch units sold 100 within a day, and a total of 90 units No. of transactions sold within two weeks of launch for an average price of HK$24,180 50 per sq ft saleable. The developers 0 subsequently launched the remaining Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 44 apartments and 5 houses for 12 13 14 15 16 17 tender. Source: EPRC, Savills Research & Consultancy The townhouse market was not as GRAPH 3 active, but we still saw transactions Townhouse price indices by district, Q1/2003– in both the primary and secondary Q2/2017 markets: Mount Nicholson remained the highlight of the luxury primary Peak Southside market with another house sold 600 for HK$663.88 million (HK$82,809 per sq ft saleable) while a house in 500 Shouson Peak was sold fi rst hand for HK$376.888 million (HK$88,952 400 per sq ft saleable). Though there were not many new launches of 300 houses, there were two separate Q1/2003 = 100 house / site transactions recorded in 200 Kowloon Tong over the quarter; 12 Stafford Road (HK$220 million) and 100 6 Cambridge Road (HK$152 million). 0 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Spurred on by the buoyant 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 market sentiment and rebounding Source: Savills Research & Consultancy savills.com.hk/research 02 Briefi ng | Hong Kong residential sales August 2017 transaction volumes in both the GRAPH 4 primary and secondary markets, Kowloon and the New Territories luxury residential Hong Kong Island and Kowloon / apartment price indices by district, Q1/2003–Q2/2017 NT apartment prices all continued to rise in Q2, registering 6% to 7% Kowloon Station Ho Man Tin Kowloon Tong Sha Tin/Tai Po Sai Kung/Clear Water Bay growth over the fi rst half of 2017. 450 400 The widening price gap between primary and secondary luxury 350 products, which in some areas 300 can be as high as 50%, should lure some purchasers back to 250 the secondary market to look for 200 ‘bargains’ over the coming months. Q1/2003 = 100 The only problem for them will be to 150 fi nd a willing seller, a diffi cult task in 100 today’s market given rising prices and escalating transaction costs. 50 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Looking ahead, with luxury prices Source: Savills Research & Consultancy at historical highs, we suspect that after a multi-year rally the market GRAPH 5 is beginning to near its peak. The Luxury transaction volumes by district in Kowloon vast difference between primary and secondary pricing may induce some and the New Territories, Q1/2012–Q2/2017 further catch-up in prices in some Tsim Sha Tsui Ho Man Tin Kowloon Tong Shatin/ Tai Po Sai Kung traditional luxury enclaves over the 450 next few months, however, pushing 400 average values up further in the short term. 350 300 250 200 150 No. of transactions 100 50 0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 12 13 14 15 16 17 Source: EPRC, Savills Research & Consultancy TABLE 1 Luxury residential price changes Sector Q2/2017 Q1/2017 2016 2015 Townhouses 2.6% +4.2% +5.5% +8.3% Hong Kong Island luxury apartments 2.6% +4.3% +6.9% +9.3% Kowloon luxury apartments 0.7% +4.8% +9.5% +5.3% New Territories luxury apartments 2.4% +3.8% +6.6% +6.2% Source: Savills Research & Consultancy savills.com.hk/research 03 Briefi ng | Hong Kong residential sales August 2017 2017 vs 1997 - Are conditions right for another market crash? Hong Kong recently marked the GRAPH 6 20th Anniversary of the 1997 Average supply levels will start to rise Handover of the territory from Britain to China and thoughts Residential supply (all classes), 1987-2021E also turned to the Asian Financial Class A Class B Class C Class D Class E All Classes Crisis which unfolded in the same 45,000 1987-1996 40,000 2007-2016 year. What began in Thailand Average Supply: 29,894 Average Supply: 10,925 with the collapse of the Thai 35,000 Baht soon spread to elsewhere 30,000 in the region, including Hong Kong. A speculative attack on the 25,000 Hong Kong Dollar peg resulted 20,000 in higher overnight interest 15,000 rates and a falling stock market. It was ultimately a war which 10,000 the government won but other 5,000 factors compounded uncertainty 0 in the property markets including tighter lending conditions, higher interest rates and a pledge Source: Savills Research & Consultancy by the new administration to GRAPH 7 dramatically increase the supply of residential apartments. At a The price-to-income ratio is fl attening time when prices were at record No. of sales agreements vs price to income ratio, 1996–Q1/2017 highs, affordability at record lows No. of primary sales agreement (LHS) No. of secondary sales agreement (LHS) Price/household income (RHS) and speculation was rife, greed 160,000 25 quickly turned to fear and offi ce, residential and retail prices fell 140,000 20 71%, 60% and 52% respectively 120,000 from 1997 to 2003. 100,000 15 The question today is whether 80,000 conditions mirror 1997 and we 10 60,000 are faced with an imminent No. of transactions property crash of a similar 40,000 5 magnitude. Some data certainly 20,000 harks back to the mid-90s; record high prices, poor affordability 0 0 (measured by the ratio of average prices to household incomes) and the prospect of higher supply Source: Lands Department, Rating and Valuation Department, Savills Research & Consultancy levels alongside elevated interest GRAPH 8 rates over the next few years. So will we see a property price High housing prices aren't supported by volumes correction of a similar scale to Total no. of sales agreements vs price index, 1996–Q1/2017 the 1997 to 2003 period? Despite Transaction volume (LHS) Inflation Adjusted Residential Property Price Index (RHS) the parallels, other areas of the 180 350 market still look quite robust; 160 real interest rates remain in 300 negative territory, gearing levels 140 250 are conservative, supply levels 120 1999=100 will remain constrained for 100 200 many years, liquidity is plentiful and even the banks have been 80 150 hardened to better resist any Units Thousands 60 100 future credit crisis.
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