Wo rkSpring 2021. Because business is about people
Why did debt become a dirty word?
Rush Limbaugh, Fox News and the day Obama tried to cancel Christmas
Five fundamental questions for the HR profession
From the seven dwarves to Beyoncé – a history of the workplace in song
Wo rk. Because business is about people
When the prime minister recently predicted commuters would return to offices in “a few short months”, his dismissal of a permanent shift to remote working would have chimed with many. Among them, no doubt, was David Solomon, CEO of Goldman Sachs, who has controversially described it as an aberration for a company that has an “innovative, collaborative apprenticeship culture”. Others, however, would have taken an entirely different view, notably those with long commutes and an impressive home office set-up. Such different attitudes to remote work, and indeed the wider issue of personal choice over how, when and where we work, is just one of the issues HR teams will have to navigate as we start to think about what the working world might look like after the pandemic. In our special feature starting on page 44, we take a look at some of the questions that the profession needs to consider, from whether employers are ready to embrace more flexible working patterns, to the impact of the pandemic on the rise of the machines.
Claire Warren, editor [email protected]
Features in detail p4 Perspectives: distilled management thinking p6 15 minutes with… Rajarshi Banerjee p12 Debt: how much is too much? p14 A history of work in song p26 Matt Atkinson on the power of purpose p28 Media and the advent of fake news p32 Interview: Unicef UK’s Claire Fox p40 Five essential questions for HR p44 Debrief: business research, reports and insight p62 Further reading p72 The off-piste guide to acronyms p74
03 FEATURES IN DETAIL
Does debt A history of Q&A: Matt Media: facts really matter? work in song Atkinson and faux news p14 p26 p28 p32
Such is the profligacy ‘I was looking for a job, Matt Atkinson has a One thing we can all with which the UK and then I found a job, dream: that one day, agree on is that these days government has loaded up and heaven knows I’m businesses will be judged it’s harder for us to agree on debt since the outset of miserable now’ crooned as much on what they do on anything. The partisan the coronavirus crisis, it Morrissey dolefully on a for society as on their divide in the west is no borrowed £1bn a day in song that captures the profits. The chief longer an argument about 2020. It’s a huge sum that prevailing presentation customer officer at the opinions, it’s about facts begs the question: just of work in popular music. Co-op, which is owned – is climate change a what is debt, and where Occasionally the gloom by its members, believes scientific reality or a does it come from? In fact, lifts – Disney’s seven that “trust, ethics and global conspiracy, for the concept of credit is so dwarfs sound chirpy transparency will instance. One of the ancient, says Andrew enough as they sing ‘heigh become increasingly fiercest debates is whether Saunders, it may pre-date ho’ – but such buoyancy important currencies in the media merely reflects the introduction of is, Work. discovers, business success”. The this growing divide, or physical money itself. exceptional. More typical group is performing well has helped to engineer it. Monarchies borrowed is Bob Dylan’s Maggie’s – growing its share of the Talking to authors Peter from bankers to finance Farm, an angry, eloquent British grocery market – Pomerantsev and Simon wars; by the 1960s, indictment of working while still doing good Kuper, Paul Simpson Dodd
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04 Unicef UK’s What’s next? Debrief p62-71 Claire Fox Five questions for HR Corporate ethics Business leaders may have p40p44 taken a pay cut during the pandemic, but few have agreed to lose their bonus. As the world’s largest On 23 March last year when Boris Johnson announced Management vaccine buyer, Unicef will the country was going into the first national lockdown, Supervisors who display play a central role in the few of us could have anticipated quite how long the emotional intelligence help distribution of Covid pandemic would be with us for, or the lasting impact it create an environment where vaccines and is currently would have on workplaces across the country. After a employees learn new skills. preparing to deliver two year in which a significant chunk of the population has Inclusion billion of them to low and been able to work from home, while others have worked Women in the boardroom may lead to inaccurate perceptions middle-income countries. on the frontlines, faced furlough or lost their jobs, Work. about workplace equality. Unicef UK staff won’t looks at the essential questions HR professionals must Healthcare directly deliver them but address as we consider what working life will be like The National Health Service their fundraising efforts after we emerge from the coronavirus crisis. needs a governance overhaul. are vital. Helping staff Will we be able to say goodbye to the 9-5? Mental health understand their piece in Burnout has a much greater this jigsaw is all in a day’s A year is a long time out of the office for habit-loving humans. impact on work stress than the work for the UK’s chief The question is whether it will be long enough to encourage other way around. employers to embrace more flexible working practices. operating officer, Claire Cybersecurity Fox, as is ensuring that Are the robots coming faster now? When staff assume company work doesn’t negatively Automation and digitisation appear to have accelerated as measures to combat phishing employers rush to respond to the pandemic. What we don’t know attacks are effective they may impact their wellbeing. become less vigilant. That means identifying yet is what impact that will ultimately have on jobs. which tasks are not a Appreciation Has the pandemic set equality back? In the age of the email, hand priority has been as There’s evidence revealing the negative effects of the crisis on written thank you notes are important a part of specific groups of staff, but the good news is many businesses surprisingly well received. her pandemic capacity have recognised the issue and seem willing to tackle it. Performance planning as deciding what Is now the time to split HR? CEOs at companies that really must be done. “In a consistently perform may It’s not a new question, but with HR’s growing remit is now the pay a high price for failure. way, the pandemic has time to revisit it? We asked two experts for their thoughts. provided quite a good Planning lesson,” she tells Jo Have we relied on staff goodwill for too long? Before another crisis hits we Faragher. “Organisations Many employees have been called upon to go above and beyond should discuss how workers would be supported. haven’t been good enough over the last year, but they won’t be prepared to do it forever. at prioritising and Skills Remote workers who display stopping things.” five special skills have a greater chance of being successful. Jo Faragher is a freelance Evidence-based HR writer and editor We need to be clear about what specialising in HR employee engagement means. and employment Executive representation The impact of female leaders may depend on cultural norms. Workplace technology Smartphone usage is not a good predictor of anxiety, stress or depression. Financial transparency Companies that are open and honest about their finances have better relationships between managers and staff.
05 PERSPECTIVES
MANAGEMENT THINKING DISTILLED
Q&A SARAH JAFFE Even the best job is about making money
would say that almost any worker Why we need to can be affected by this myth, but that it is inculcated most strongly think like a scientist in feminised caring professions and creative professions. THERE ARE A NUMBER of neurological conditions that leave How did we get to this point? a person convinced something is The short answer is that the shift true when it is not. Anton syndrome, from an industrial economy to where sufferers believe they can see an economy driven by services despite clear evidence they are blind, means there is more work that is one such example. requires you to smile on the job, Fortunately, few people ever to like it or at least to perform experience it but, as Adam Grant, MORE AND MORE of us are happiness for the customer. The author of Think Again, told the US’s making sacrifices in the name of destruction of labour unions and Sunday Today programme, it a job we enjoy but, says Sarah Jaffe, other institutions of working- captures something all of us have author of Work Won’t Love You class solidarity has produced an experienced – moments when we Back, it’s all one big con. We’ve been economy full of individualised are unaware of where our abilities
tricked into believing that certain workers seeking fulfilment, who fall short: “I like to think of it as the es work isn’t really work at all. are told the way to achieve that is ‘I’m not biased bias’, which is the
to work hard and compete with tendency to recognise flaws in other ok Imag
Why won’t work love you back? others to get to the top. At the top, people’s thinking, but assume that Bo Ultimately, we work because we presumably, our reward is better, we ourselves are immune to them.” es need to pay the bills, and we have more lovable work, which still The most successful people, from these jobs not because bosses are translates into ‘more work’. entrepreneurs to politicians, think benevolent ‘job creators’, but like a scientist, questioning their because they are profiting from Is there a way out of this? own beliefs and embracing being our work. Even the nicest boss, This is a political problem, not wrong, says Grant. Trouble is, r Hurley; Internet Archiv
the most fulfilling job, exists so a personal one. More people research shows that the smarter te people can make money, not to having discussions about how you are the more you might struggle Pe make us happy. we’d like the workplace to look to update your thinking. “I see far and what we might do to get too many people in the world who NS Group;
Who is most affected by the myth there is going to be necessary. listen to opinions that make them SW of the labour of love? The workers I profiled have all feel good, instead of ideas that In the book I follow two threads, taken action on the job, changed make them think hard,” he says, caring work and creative work, to their working conditions and, in adding that we all need to get into
see how the narrative of loving some cases, the laws, to improve the habit of reconsidering. That : Amanda Jaffe; your work spread from a narrow their situation. The pandemic doesn’t mean we always have to es expectation to one that affects has reminded us that we can change our minds, but if many, many workers. The other change a lot about the workplace “knowledge is power, knowing rren. Pictur
day I drove by a billboard for incredibly quickly – maybe we what you don’t know is wisdom”. Wa Amazon warehouse jobs that said can figure out how to do that
something along the lines of ‘find intentionally, rather than only Adam Grant is a professor at the Wharton s: Claire a job delivering smiles’. So I in response to a crisis. School of the University of Pennsylvania rd Wo
06 PERSPECTIVES
G K I N P O L I N A T T
Should employers use
Old norms hold software to monitor staff? business back Surveillance has come under the spotlight since the start of the pandemic-induced shift to remote working. Research shows BUSINESS, says Judy Samuelson, one in fi ve organisations are using or planning to introduce is the most infl uential institution of software tools to monitor the work of home-based employees. our day. If we are to make progress But is it a good idea, and does it improve productivity? on intractable problems, from climate change to inequality, we need the talent, investment, problem-solving skills and global reach of the business community. EXPERTS’ VIEW “Our vision of business is crowded with stories of greed laced with TIM RINGO JONATHAN RENNIE short-term thinking,” she says. “Yet Author, Partner, as we step into the ecosystem of Solving the Productivity Puzzle TLT business today, we experience profound change in attitudes and Before the pandemic, the global economy was It would be wrong to dismiss monitoring as a new kind of business vision.” already in the midst of the longest period of a tactic that is only used by unscrupulous Despite this, old norms, from how declining people productivity in recorded organisations to chain people to their desks, or economic history. A key factor in this has been to try and catch them out and build a case fi nance is taught in the classroom the rise of ‘presenteeism’ which, research against them. It can be a legitimate business to the incentives and rewards that shows, leads to suboptimal mental health, practice and, in some industries, like fi nancial focus the minds of executives on the lack of sleep and poor fi nancial wellbeing. services, it is required by the regulator. share price, are holding us back and Data shows that presenteeism has need to be broken down. transferred to the home office. Now that more people are working remotely, it’s natural for businesses to want to use some In The Six New Rules of Business, Employers may be permitted by law to use form of monitoring to measure performance Samuelson outlines the shifts in employee monitoring and tracking software and productivity. It could also be used as an attitudes and mindsets that she to check up on workers, but just because they indicator of wellbeing – to ensure people are believes are already in play against can does not mean they should. This forced not suff ering, for example, from a lack of home working should be an opportunity to engagement with their job, perhaps as a result a backdrop of internet-powered break the cycle of increasing presenteeism by of mental health issues. Likewise, if an transparency, a more powerful giving people more fl exibility and autonomy employer can see that someone is consistently worker voice, the decline in the on when and how work gets done. Recent working late, this could be a red fl ag. Employee importance of capital and the studies reveal giving people more autonomy monitoring could indicate where more clarity complexity of global supply chains. greatly reduces stress levels and improves or support from the employer is needed. wellbeing. People should be measured on These include: intangibles drive output, not on time tied to the PC screen. Employment and data protection laws must value, not the balance sheet (but be considered. There’s an implied legal duty can’t be measured in traditional One emerging area of employee tracking that on businesses to maintain staff trust and ways); purpose over profits; and could be a trend for the better is measuring confi dence. Firms must act in a proportionate stress levels at work. Several organisations are and justified manner; inform employees of culture is king (competition for experimenting with wearables that measure their intention to monitor; be mindful of talent and a focus on innovation take and detect rising cortisone on the skin. The discrimination; and use safeguards to prevent precedence over capital markets). devices can predict harmful stress levels up to abuse or over-monitoring.A thorough data an hour before they occur and allow an protection impact assessment is also employee to step back from the brink by recommended to help identify any potential Judy Samuelson is founder of The Aspen participating in stress decelerating activities issues, and is mandatory under the GDPR if Institute’s Business and Society Program such as mindfulness and meditation. the processing of data is high risk.
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Susan Yo ung PERSPECTIVES
The great dispersion TOMAS CHAMORRO-PREMUZIC won’t be good for all ENGAGEMENT DOESN’T GUARANTEE SUCCESS
THE MOST ENDURING OUR INDUSTRY HAS spent the compare diff erent groups on overall feature of the pandemic will be to last decade obsessing over employee scores we are measuring not just accelerate existing trends, and that, engagement scores, resulting in the how they feel today, but how they says Scott Galloway, will include stigmatisation of the unmotivated feel in general, and the easiest way to the trend that “encapsulates the worker. Before the Covid crisis, infl ate your scores would be to hire greatest reshuffling of stakeholder a primary concern for knowledge happy and easy-to-please employees, value in recent history”. workers was whether they could which would sadly not result in any Similar to previous macro trends, fi nd meaning and purpose at work, performance gains. like globalisation and digitisation, a demoralising experience leading This would likely not result in the the ‘great dispersion’ offers to feelings of guilt and existential innovation, change and progress enormous fi nancial opportunities. anxiety in those who could fi nd that are so badly needed by “Amazon dispersed retail to desktop, neither spiritual fulfilment nor organisations either, given these to mobile, to voice. Netflix dispersed psychological attachment. are usually fuelled by high doses of DVDs to our mailbox, then to every While it’s certainly preferable for dissatisfaction. Indeed, it is often screen,” Galloway writes on his blog. managers to have engaged contrarian, diffi cult “The pandemic is causing dispersion teams, the science “Despite the focus on and non-conformist in even larger industries.” suggests this is a far from engagement over the personalities that But while some businesses, such straightforward issue. last decade, levels become change agents, as home exercise company Peloton, The correlation between have remained low” precisely because they Zoom and, of course, Amazon, have engagement and are not satisfied had a good pandemic, we live in performance, for instance, rarely with the status quo. Every a “winner-takes-all economy” and exceeds 0.40, meaning there is just important accomplishment in our the restaurant, travel, hospitality a 16 per cent overlap between history is the result of profoundly and live entertainment industries, employees’ levels of enthusiasm and dissatisfi ed humans, who would for instance, have “scrambled to their productivity. In other words, probably have scored quite low on escape obliteration”, he says. performance is driven by many employee engagement. Previous paradigm shifts have other factors, including talent, Contrary to popular belief, and “catalysed massive prosperity, but expertise and, of course, extrinsic the populist positive psychology little progress”. This time we must incentives (both carrots and sticks). revolution, organisations are not be more conscious of the potential At least half of the variance in in the business of making people downsides, including weakening engagement scores is explained by happy. Nor should they be. Despite ties of community and cooperation. employees’ personalities. If I’m the focus on engagement over the “The pandemic has given us a naturally grumpy and negative, my last decade, levels have remained preview of our dispersed future,” baseline engagement score may be dismally low. Perhaps if we stop says Galloway. “Today we have fi ve (out of 10), but if I tend to be increasing people’s expectations social distancing – tomorrow the optimistic and easy going it will about what they can get from work, distancing will be structural.” likely be more like eight. The we may start to see an increase in implications are clear: when we their satisfaction – and performance.
Scott Galloway is professor of marketing at NYU Stern and author of Post Corona Tomas Chamorro-Premuzic is a psychologist, author and entrepreneur
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Zoksang; TED PERSPECTIVES
MICHAEL COSTELLO POOR MENTAL HEALTH MAY BE THE PRICE HIGH PERFORMERS PAY FOR SUCCESS
HE WAS THE all-in employee: So what do we need in place to ability to engage with ‘self care’. married to the desk, laptop and protect the wellbeing of our high Blinded by a huge fi nancial carrot mobile phone 24/7. Never switching performers, especially against the and working 80-hour weeks, many off, he enjoyed a fast-paced lifestyle backdrop of an ongoing global crisis? suff ered from FOMO, unable to leading to declining mental health Birkbeck University suggests we recharge and invest time with loved and ultimately breakdown. Yet tune in for shifts in behaviour and ones because of the all-in culture. before this he exceeded his emotions, as well as physical signs One coachee even told me: “The superior’s wildest dreams. In this of burnout, such as anxiety, negative sleep goals we set have worked. I can case, that high performer is former attitudes, tiredness, feeling hungry now sleep for fi ve hours instead of number 10 Downing Street press and headaches. Not easy, of course, six and complete more work!” That’s secretary Alastair Campbell, but it’s given many high performers conceal certainly not what I advocated! a familiar story across Britain’s their true thoughts and feelings. Such behaviour can often be businesses – brilliant staff Alongside observing these shifts in driven by unwritten expectation of repeatedly promoted but at the cost behaviour, perhaps we also need to perfection from senior leaders. Some of family relationships and their of the directors I’ve spoken to have mental health. “One coachee told me: experienced ‘imposter syndrome’ In my slightly sweary conversation ‘The sleep goals have following a promotion, but would with Campbell (him, not me) for a worked.I can sleep for never dream of openly sharing their recent podcast, he described how he five hours instead of six anxieties with their team for fear exhibited mood swings, crashes and and complete more work’” of looking weak. For real culture signs of burnout at work for years. change to take place, leaders like Yet decades later, colleagues pay more attention to what we do this need to speak openly about expressed surprise at just how bad not hear. If employees rarely discuss their fears and ensure wellbeing is his mental health had become – interests outside of work, mention an integral part of performance “I would never have known” (this little about their social or support management and mentoring from Ed Miliband) or “Was it really network, and rarely bring up discussions (learning how to switch that bad?” (Tony Blair). anything about home life, it might off themselves would also help). Perhaps these leaders saw what well be a good time to check in. There’s nothing wrong with was convenient to them at the time, Bupa recently reported that six promoting people for hard work, playing along with the performance. in 10 business leaders are turning to loyalty and dedication, but greater Or perhaps it was just too hard for unhealthy coping mechanisms. Yet, emphasis needs to be placed on them to go there, to address the even when high performers do working smart, recharging the elephant in the room. Today, leaders recognise they are experiencing batteries and managing working who pledge allegiance to their wellbeing challenges, they can boundaries – skills that do not come organisational values have to ‘go struggle to help themselves. My automatically to employees. It’s time there’ but the reality is, while they coaching experience in Silicon to embrace collective organisational may be more willing to address the Valley confirmed to me that they wellbeing and shatter the image of issue, often they do not know how. are certainly not promoted on their the solitary workplace superhero.
Michael Costello is a business psychologist. He is director of Workplace Evolution and records its podcast
11 15 minutes with... Rajarshi Banerjee The medical entrepreneur on following the science, investor diversity and the world’s largest long Covid study
On... the value of outsiders I founded Perspectum largely overwhelmed. ‘Scio’ [the Latin root I’m the only child of immigrant because I wanted to get our of the English word science] means parents who came here to study. technology into the healthcare ‘I know’. But we don’t know much My dad studied engineering, and system. If I had stayed in academia, about this virus, so you want to my mum was groundbreaking as that wouldn’t have happened – predict before you know – shut an Asian woman studying there wouldn’t have been the your borders, for example, before computer science in the early 1970s. funding or the right culture. Now there is evidence of inbound When I went to medical school I Perspectum is applying that tech transmission. Following the science was a bit of an outsider.I loved it to run the world’s largest study just means you can never be ahead and made some lifelong friends, but into long Covid, and the test we of the pandemic. it was a culture shock. It was super use (COVERSCAN) has just competitive and everyone wanted been granted exceptional use On... investors to follow the same track, but do it authorisation by the MHRA I believe in diversity in the investor faster. There weren’t many of the in the UK. pool. Yes you want a couple of things I liked to do for fun, like ruthless capitalists to keep you taking a bottle of Fanta to the park On… life as a CEO focused and make sure there is and just kicking a ball about. But It can be quite scary because you a return. But you also need some the kind of kid who desperately are responsible for the people who nurturing types to help you wants to get into the first team at work for you. Some of them are in manage growth, especially in cricket probably isn’t going to be their first jobs outside academia a company that has a young the person who invents basketball. and they’ve come here from abroad. management team and a first-time It’s a different mindset. Right now they may not even be CEO. And you want some people able to go back to their mother who believe firmly in societal good On... being an entrepreneur country [because of the pandemic]. – there’s this idea that only public I didn’t actually want to be an But, on the other hand, when they companies need to think about it, entrepreneur. After 10 years’ hard do cool stuff there is reflected pride but the boards of private firms work as an NHS hospital doctor I – when COVERSCAN got should focus on it too. wanted to get a consultant’s job, authorisation tears of joy were which usually means you have to shed. Look at the firms that have On … ambitions for the future do a PhD. I chose to study cardiac got exceptional use authorisation I want this company to be
imaging because it seemed fairly recently – Pfizer, AstraZeneca, self-sustaining and I want our lin Stout
easy, but it turned out I was good at Moderna – and then little old technology to be delivered in a Co it. We built a really strong research Perspectum with only 180 people. regular pipeline. The field we are in rtrait:
team and got some patents. The is ever growing. That means in 20 Po novelty was that we applied the On… following the science years’ time we will have gone from s.
same technology we were using on From the start of the pandemic the saying ‘isn’t it sad that we don’t under the heart to other organs like the government has said it would have scans for pancreatic cancer’ liver and pancreas: instead of ‘follow the science’. And yet here to being able to detect a tumour of ew Sa needing an invasive needle biopsy, we are, fourth or fifth largest any kind before it is symptomatic. we could use MRI scans and AI economy in the world, and our There will be much less fiddling software to assess their condition. health service has faced being about with needles and guesswork. Interview: Andr
12 Rajarshi Banerjee Rajarshi Banerjee founded his medical imaging technology business Perspectum Diagnostics in 2012. The company’s first product, LiverMultiScan, uses innovative patented technology to diagnose liver disease via non-invasive MRI scans. Based in Oxford, it employs around 180 people and in April last year closed a $36m funding round led by the Blue Venture Fund and HealthQuest Capital. 20 21 “Someday, and that day may never come, I will call upon you to do a service for me” Don Corleone es etty Imag /G os id Kitt Dav : 17 ; p16- es p14-15: Mondadori/Getty Imag xxxxc
22 Nigerian military leader Sani Abacha ruled with an iron grip and presided over a regime accused of gross human rights abuses. During his presidency, from 1993 until his death in 1998, Abacha is believed to have stolen and laundered up to $5 billion. In Frank Bayh and Steff Rosenberger-Ochs’s What If The Were Unicorns series, the artists offer a visual representation of the world’s tyrants as crying innocents and question what might have been.
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23 The coronavirus pandemic has prompted many governments to rewrite the fiscal rules to support their beleaguered populations. But, as Andrew Saunders discovers, debt has been helping make the world go round for centuries – and a little bit can have a positive impact
ow much debt is too much? This peren- leads the pack at 266 per cent of GDP, followed by nial question has been pondered by Greece at 205 per cent and Italy a few places behind at monarchs, ministers and monetarists 162 per cent. The genie is out of the bottle and, for now Hdown the ages, and has been thrown once at least, the last thing anyone is thinking about is how again into razor-sharp relief in the last year by the to get it back in. extraordinary – and extraordinarily rapid – economic “There is a magic money tree, whether you like it response to coronavirus around the world. or not,” says Vicky Pryce, board member at economic Where once prudence, even a degree of austerity, think tank the Centre for Economics and Business were the watchwords of treasuries across the globe, Research. “And for me the most fascinating thing is since March last year (when the pandemic was that it exists for as long as people continue to believe declared) unprecedented largesse has suddenly in it. The moment you start to think ‘we need to cut become the order of the day. Restraint seems to have back’ that mood can change very quickly.” gone out of the window, replaced by the urgent But how worried should we be – are those numbers attempt if not to spend our way out of the crisis, then really as scary as they seem? “The right way to frame at least to use huge piles of cash to cushion the that question is to ask ‘what’s the alternative?’ Where associated social and economic blows. would we be if we had not borrowed?” says Erik In the UK this has turned politics upside down, Britton, founder of Fathom Consulting and former with a Conservative government borrowing sums Bank of England macroeconomist. He believes that even Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour party would have that without calling on that additional debt, things trembled to imagine – around £1bn a day last would have become very bad, very quickly. “What is year, accruing a total deficit for 2020 of £355bn, or already the biggest recession of all time would have 17 per cent of GDP, the highest since the end of turned into the biggest depression of all time. UK World War II. unemployment would be at the seven or eight million Around the world there is a similar picture – debt mark and rising, and GDP would be down by 20 per has been the number one weapon of choice to meet cent and falling. That cycle would continue until it the crisis. According to the International Monetary ended in revolution. Fund (IMF), an astounding $12trn was added to the “So what we’re really asking is, is it worth global burden of public debt in the first nine months of increasing the government debt ratio by say 30 per the pandemic alone. That’s $12trn. Think about that cent of GDP to avoid that situation? Absolutely it is – if number for a moment.A 12 with 12 noughts after it. the alternative is revolution or even world war, then Equivalent to the entire GDP of all 19 Eurozone everyone is better off as a result.” countries, or 14.3 per cent of the economic output of It’s all rather ironic – or, more optimistically, the entire globe, if you prefer. Enough to buy Apple – a measure of human progress – given that the national the world’s most valuable company – six times over. debt arose in the first place not to stave off the Or every house in the UK, plus every business in the possibility of war, but rather to pay for several that FTSE 100, and still leave a couple of trillion in the did happen. The idea dates back to the reign of bank for emergencies. William III, who offered the first ever formal sale It all amounts to a hasty and comprehensive of sovereign (national) debt, borrowing about rewrite of the economic ‘rules’ on debt. Twenty odd £1m from a syndicate of city merchants to pay for years ago, remember, then Labour chancellor Gordon a new navy following defeat by the French in the Brown set a 40 per cent ‘debt to GDP limit’ that was Nine Years’ War. Monarchs had borrowed from considered pretty racy by many. When the Eurozone bankers and wealthy aristocrats before of course, was established around the same time, one of the but such arrangements could be tricky to negotiate joining requirements was a debt to GDP ratio of no and/or politically inconvenient. There was no need more than 60 per cent. for the king to worry about treading on the toes of But the latest ONS figures show the public sector’s mere merchants and traders, or – God forbid – net debt amounts to £2.1trn, equivalent to 100.8 per bumping into any of them. The new idea turned out cent of GDP – a level not seen since the early 1960s. to be one of the great financial innovations of all The international average ratio is about the same, time, culminating in the foundation of the Bank although the most indebted nations have much higher of England in 1694, which helped finance the figures. According to IMF projections for 2020, Japan Napoleonic Wars.
18 debt
Easy access to debt proved so fantastically Zilch, he says, makes its money from a per convenient that other rulers quickly followed William’s transaction fee to the retailer – there’s no interest example. Four hundred years later we have the $100trn charged to the customer and people use it because it global bond market, trading everything from national offers a better deal than a credit card. It’s the first UK debt and corporate loans to credit card and mortgage buy-now-pay-later provider to be fully regulated by books. Central banks operating a vast programme of the FCA, and closed a $30m series B funding round quantitative easing (the introduction of new money late last year. “Our model is completely the opposite into the money supply) have also helped to keep interest [of credit cards],” says Belamant. “We want you to rates at record lows in recent years, making debt look repay on time, every time. We never want to over lend. even more attractive by keeping the repayments Sixty-five per cent of our customers don’t have a credit correspondingly affordable. card, because they are tired of being ripped off.” “The curiosity is that we have record levels of So for nation states and consumers alike, the government borrowing in almost every economy but, at prevailing consensus on debt seems to be that it’s the same time, ridiculously low yields [interest a vital lubricant that keeps the commercial machinery rates] on government bonds,” says David moving and smooths the otherwise lumpy course Smith, veteran economics editor of The Times. of progress. So long as you can afford the “That’s a reflection of the fact that the markets payments, it’s all good. “An economy is don’t expect short-term interest rates to go up movement and flow, it’s transactions, any time soon. But the central banks have also things happening. What we worry about been doing an enormous amount of is keeping that flow going, because quantitative easing. That’s a huge anything that stops it kills the economy,” market distortion and essentially free says Britton. money for the government.” But this simple transactional view It’s also instructive that for 100 years papers over the deep-rooted anxiety or so from the 1760s to the 1860s – a period about debt that lurks beneath. For that includes the economic explosion of much of human history, a debt has the industrial revolution – the UK’s been an unwelcome or even dangerous national debt remained well above the obligation, with the potential to grant 100 per cent of GDP that is sparking so creditors absolute power over those much concern today, peaking at more who owe them something. Failure to than 235 per cent in the 1820s. In fact, there pay a debt in Sumer in 3,000BC, for have only been two half-century periods example, could result in a life of slavery not where it has remained consistently below 100 only for the debtor, but his family and per cent of GDP: the years before World War I servants too. Unpaid debts could even be and those from the early 1960s to the modern, inherited, condemning multiple generations to pre-pandemic era. the same fate. Where kings and princes first tread, commoners The Romans went one better – meting out violent eventually follow. Since the dawn of the credit card and sometimes mortal punishments for unpaid debts. (the US BankAmericard was first introduced in 1958, Those who wished to avoid such a grisly end and did followed in the UK by the Barclaycard in 1966 and not have friends in high places could ‘volunteer’ for Access in 1972) debt has become increasingly debt bondage instead. This was just debt slavery by democratised. Now in the smartphone era, with a another name but, according to the bloodthirsty plethora of apps offering multiple forms of credit with mores of the times, was seen as a relatively progressive just a few swipes, it’s easier than ever for the average and lenient alternative. person to get into debt. Morality has also always been closely, if somewhat The fastest growing sector is currently ‘buy now uneasily, linked to debt. Paying what one owes is pay later’. Providers such as Klarna and Clearpay have widely regarded as a benchmark of character and drawn criticism from MPs and regulators alike for trustworthiness, even if many of us struggle to live up offering ‘lifestyle’ debt to the social media generation. to it. Honouring debt is also baked into many of the But, says Philip Belamant, founder and CEO of fast- world’s major religions but, at the same time, those es growing buy-now-pay-later start-up Zilch, just who profit unduly from the debts of others have been because the model is novel, doesn’t mean it’s all bad: reviled. Just think of Jesus turning over the tables of “The traditional credit card model is based on the moneylenders, and the malevolent Shylock who Getty Imag
y/ overlending – lending you money that you can’t afford demands a pound of flesh as security on a loan in le
ze to repay all at once, but that you can afford to repay Shakespeare’s Merchant of Venice. Or the dim view Da
r over a period of time. Because otherwise there is no taken of usury – the charging of interest – still te interest or fees for the provider.” forbidden in Islamic law. • Pe
19 CREDIT WHERE IT’S DUE
Government debt around the world has reached levels not seen since the last world war
150% HISTORY REPEATS ITSELF
General government debt (% of GDP) 1901-2021 $12.04trn The national debt of Japan, the country with the 1939-45 highest pre-pandemic debt World War II to GDP ratio at 234% Source: SpendMeNot 120% 1952 US tests fi rst hydrogen bomb over the Marshall 1961 Islands 1933 1936 Berlin wall goes up Hitler becomes Anti-fascist Cable chancellor of Street riots in Germany London 1973 90% 1957 , OPEC Harold embargo
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ne 0% to est ys 01 37 67 07 22 25 34 49 43 46 64 04 40 rr 928 1916 1913 1931 1919 1961 1910 19 1976 19 1973 1979 19 1970 19 19 19 1952 1 1955 1958 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 Fo Ke
20 debt
THE INTERNATIONAL STORY Change in gross government debt (% of GDP)
266.2% KEY 2020-21 2012 228.7% 2020
Coronavirus 2020 r pandemic be to
161.8% Oc ,
83.2% 131.2% 126.5% itor 108% 103.3% Mon 89.3% al 81.1% 73.3% 61.7% 67.7% Fisc F
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2017 Ger 1982 Donald Trump E.T. released, becomes US the highest- president THE 10 MOST INDEBTED EUROPEAN COUNTRIES grossing fi lm of 1992 National debt to GDP ratios (pre-pandemic figures) the 80s World’s Debt: GDP ratio $ largest 2007-08 1 Greece 182% 231.2bn McDonald’s Global 2 Italy 128% 2.3trn opens in fi nancial 3 Portugal 118% 293.3bn Beijing crisis 4 Belgium 99% 484bn 5 France 96% 2.5trn tS 6 Spain 95% 1.1trn
7 Cyprus 90% 20.2bn MeNo 8 UK 86% 2.9trn nd Spe 9 Ukraine 77% 73.8bn :
1989 10 Croatia 73% 44.7bn urce So Berlin Wall comes COUNTING THE COST OF COVID down Government debt accrued as a result of pandemic response packages (% of total GDP) 2020 UK USA GERMANY ITALY r be
9.2% 1 1.8% 8.35% 4.9% to
16.6% 2.5% 30.8% 33% Oc , nitor Mo l sca Fi
jAPAN CHINA INDIA F KEY 11.3% 4.6% 1.8% IM Outer circle Additional spending 23.7% 1.3% 5.2%
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THE FALLING COST OF BORROWING ct
oje General government interest expenditure to GDP ratio Database Pr k e (% of GDP) 2000-20 oo tl
bas 3.5 ta KEY Ou c Da Advanced economies 3.0 Emerging markets onomi Ec Madison F;
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2.0 IM ou e: S rc Sou 21 15 1.5 03 09 06 00 82 85 88 94 1991 1997 20 19 2012 20 00 01 02 030405060708091011121314151617181920 19 2018 19 19 20 20 20 20