Nationalism, Diplomacy, and the Strategic Logic of Anti-Foreign Protest
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UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN DIEGO Powerful Patriots: Nationalism, Diplomacy, and the Strategic Logic of Anti-Foreign Protest A Dissertation submitted in partial satisfaction of the Requirements for the degree Doctor of Philosophy in Political Science by Jessica Chen Weiss Committee in charge: Professor David Lake, Co-Chair Professor Susan Shirk, Co-Chair Professor Lawrence Broz Professor Richard Madsen Professor Branislav Slantchev 2008 Copyright Jessica Chen Weiss, 2008 All rights reserved. Signature Page The Dissertation of Jessica Chen Weiss is approved, and it is acceptable in quality and form for publication on microfilm and electronically: Co-Chair Co-Chair University of California, San Diego 2008 iii Dedication To my parents iv Epigraph In regard to China-Japan relations, reactions among youths, especially students, are strong. If difficult problems were to appear still further, it will become impossible to explain them to the people. It will become impossible to control them. I want you to understand this position which we are in. Deng Xiaoping, speaking at a meeting with high-level Japanese officials, including Ministers of Foreign Affairs, Finance, Agriculture, and Forestry, June 28, 19871 During times of crisis, Arab governments demonstrated their own conception of public opinion as a street that needed to be contained. Some even complained about the absence of demonstrators at times when they hoped to persuade the United States to ease its demands for public endorsements of its policies. 2 Marc Lynch, Voices of the New Arab Public 1 Whiting (1989), p. 164, in translation from Cankao Xiaoxi, June 30, 1987. 2 Lynch (2006), p. 75. v TABLE OF CONTENTS Table of Contents Signature Page ...................................................................................................................iii Dedication.......................................................................................................................... iv Epigraph.............................................................................................................................. v Table of Contents...............................................................................................................vi List of Figures................................................................................................................... vii Acknowledgements..........................................................................................................viii Vita...................................................................................................................................... x Abstract.............................................................................................................................. xi Chapter 1: Introduction ................................................................................................... 1 Chapter 2: Anti-Foreign Protest as an International Bargaining Tactic .................. 12 2.1 Theoretical Assumptions .................................................................................. 14 2.2 The Strategic Logic of Anti-Foreign Protest .................................................... 19 2.3 Predictions......................................................................................................... 27 2.4 A Quasi-Experiment: Anti-Japanese Protest in China vs. Hong Kong ............ 31 2.5 Conclusion ........................................................................................................ 40 Chapter 3: From Anti-Japan to Pro-Democracy: The Road from 1985 to 1989...... 42 3.1 The 1985 Anti-Japanese Protests...................................................................... 46 3.2 Analysis............................................................................................................. 69 3.3 Lessons learned................................................................................................. 80 3.4 Conclusion ........................................................................................................ 85 Chapter 4: The 2005 Anti-Japanese Protests and U.N. Reform Negotiations .......... 88 4.1 The 2005 Anti-Japanese Protests...................................................................... 90 4.2 Protests and Negotiations: A Two-Level Game ............................................... 92 4.3 Anti-Japanese Protests as a Bargaining Tactic in the U.N. Negotiations ....... 116 4.4 Alternative Explanations................................................................................. 129 4.5 Conclusion ...................................................................................................... 132 Chapter 5: A Tale of Two Crises: Anti-Americanism in 1999 and 2001 ................. 135 5.1 Theoretical expectations................................................................................. 138 5.2 The 1999 Embassy Bombing.......................................................................... 140 5.3 The 2001 EP-3 Incident .................................................................................. 148 5.4 Analysis........................................................................................................... 157 5.5 Alternative Explanations................................................................................. 175 5.6 Conclusion ...................................................................................................... 181 Chapter 6: Conclusion.................................................................................................. 183 6.1 Findings........................................................................................................... 184 6.2 The Dogs that Didn’t Bark.............................................................................. 186 6.3 Extensions for Future Research ...................................................................... 196 6.4 Broader Implications....................................................................................... 198 References...................................................................................................................... 200 vi LIST OF FIGURES List of Figures Figure 2.1: Incidence of Anti-Japanese Protest, 1978-2005............................................. 39 Figure 4.1: From Petitions to Protest Marches, March-April 2005 ................................ 121 Figure 4.2: Online News Coverage of Anti-Japanese Petitions, March-April 2005 ...... 128 Figure 4.3: Online News Silence During Major Protest Marches .................................. 129 vii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Acknowledgements This research was made possible by grants and fellowships from the National Science Foundation, the Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation (IGCC) of the University of California, the U.S. Department of Education Fulbright-Hays Doctoral Dissertation Research Abroad Program, and the Institute for International, Comparative, and Area Studies (IICAS), the Rohr Chair in Pacific International Relations, and the Department of Political Science at the University of California, San Diego. I am also indebted to the China Foreign Affairs University and Tsinghua University School of Public Policy and Management for hosting me during my field research in China during 2006 and 2007. I have benefited immeasurably from the support of many individuals over the course of my graduate education and the development and completion of this project. I am deeply grateful to David Lake and Susan Shirk, who have given me detailed comments on countless drafts, have always been available when I needed guidance, and have provided intellectual as well as moral support. I count myself extremely fortunate to have them as my mentors. Branislav Slantchev worked closely with me on the theoretical portion of this project, and it has benefited immensely from his input. I am also grateful to Lawrence Broz and Richard Madsen for serving on my committee and providing excellent feedback throughout this process. Sam Popkin has been a great source of encouragement and deserves special thanks. Jean Oi, my undergraduate advisor, introduced me to field work and has provided invaluable advice and support ever since. I also wish to thank TaiMing Cheung, Deborah Davis, James Fearon, Peter Gourevitch, viii Stephan Haggard, Miles Kahler, Pierre Landry, Phillip Lipscy, Edmund Malesky, Megumi Naoi, Barry Naughton, and Kenneth Schultz for their helpful suggestions at various stages of this project. The feedback I received while presenting my work during job interviews in the fall of 2007 was also extremely valuable. My fieldwork in mainland China, Hong Kong and Japan would not have been successful without the patience and generosity of the many activists, officials, students, intellectuals, think-tank analysts and journalists that I interviewed. I am especially grateful to my research assistants and the many Chinese friends I made in Beijing and Shanghai. I would also like to thank my fellow graduate students Aakash Dharmadhikari, Greg Distelhorst, Melanie Hart, Chad Futrell, Jihyeon Jeong, Rachel Stern, and Leslie Wang for their friendship and camaraderie in San Diego and Beijing. My parents have been a constant source of support and inspiration. My father, Noel Weiss, has read every word of this dissertation and made excellent suggestions. My mother, Chu Chen, has provided loving encouragement and advice every step of the way. Finally, I would like to thank Jeremy Wallace, who has traveled beside