RUSSIA in GLOBAL AFFAIRS
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RUSSIA in GLOBAL AFFAIRS Vol. 2•No. 4•OCTOBER – DECEMBER•2004 Contents Russia Goes to War Fyodor Lukyanov 5 Comments Learning to Fight International Terrorism Anatoly Adamishin 8 The former Cold War enemies are still more preoccupied with a tug-of-war between themselves than with combating the new threats. How many more times will we repeat the same mistakes in choosing our priorities? Ukraine After Kuchma Arkady Moshes 16 Within the next five to ten years, Russia and Ukraine will have to decide whether their common border will be a conventional boundary connecting their peoples, or whether it will become a new frontier of a Europe divided. Ukraine and Russia will have to make a choice on their own – and then live with its consequences. Should Russia Play Economic Catch-Up Games? 27 Ksenia Yudaeva The idea of national competitiveness looks very attractive on the surface, but it makes no economic sense. The struggle for competitiveness can deal an irreparable blow to Russia’s economic development. Russian State of Emergency Putin’s Choice as Russia’s Choice Vitaly Tretyakov 36 The depth of political changes Vladimir Putin’s latest reform will bring to Russian society and Russia’s state system is comparable to that brought about by Boris Yeltsin’s disbandment of the Congress of People’s Deputies (former parliament) and the adoption of a new Constitution in 1993. Thus far, those two events have been the fundamental political landmarks in Russia’s modern (post-Soviet) history. Contents “Mobilization Plus Modernization” 52 Tatyana Gurova, Andrei Tsunsky If the march of events is favorable, Russia will have at least a two-party sys- tem by the next presidential term – identical to what has happened at cer- tain stages in the history of many Western countries. There is every indica- tion that it will be far less elegant and shapely than in those countries. Nevertheless, this future system will be better than a brutal dictatorship. Russia’s Disintegration: Factors and Prospects Igor Yakovenko 61 The modernization of the heterogeneous population scattered around the critically large landmass means that there exists a high probability for Russia’s breakup. The collapse of the country’s uniform ideology has pre- determined its civilizational (cultural and religious) heterogeneity. European Vision of Russia Russia and Germany: The Core Tenet of Cooperation 76 Gerhard Schröder European experience has shown that stability depends on sound democrat- ic institutions which ensure that decisions taken by policymakers have pub- lic backing. This, in turn, demands ongoing political feedback within a con- fident parliament and an active civil society. Why Schröder Loves Russia Alexander Rahr 84 The German business world is pushing Schröder into Putin’s arms. This is not surprising, since Germany has always had a special business approach to Russia, unlike other Western countries. In the Transatlantic Gap Flemming Splidsboel Hansen 91 On a number of key points – power, the national interest and state sovereignty – Russia has more in common with the U.S.A. than with the EU member states. Most central perhaps is the understanding of the con- cept of “power.” There is a possibility that Russia can actually benefit from the gap between the U.S.A. and Western Europe. The Caucasian Knot Wider Europe’s Horizons in the Caucasus Vladimir Degoyev 106 Russia’s top political milieu is growing restive over the amassed Western penetration into Transcaucasia. The pragmatic West realizes only too well that whoever brings peace and affluence to the post-Soviet territories will have (overtly or covertly) the dominating positions there. Georgia Propelling Its Disintegration Andranik Migranyan 118 There are no legal or international barriers to recognizing the independence of the self-proclaimed republics of Abkhazia and South Ossetia in consider- ation of the practices that the Western countries demonstrated toward the republics of the former Soviet Union and Yugoslavia. Following the breakup of the Soviet Union, the notion of territorial integrity lost its import. RUSSIA IN GLOBAL AFFAIRS VOL. 2 • No. 4 • OCTOBER – DECEMBER • 2004 Contents Georgiophobia Leonid Radzikhovsky 126 Russia is Georgia’s natural ally. To make Georgia understand this, Russia must change its attitude toward its southerly neighbor. First and foremost, we must take our feet off the tabletop and stop putting on arrogant airs. Armenia Amid a Sea of Uncertainty 133 Survey of the Armenia 2020 Project At the start of the 21st century, the countries that once made up the Soviet Union have approached a momentous point in their history. The newly independent states bordering on the mighty development centers, such as Russia, the EU or China, will have to set their priorities and decide for themselves what structures they would like to integrate into. Looking for a Way Out of the Karabakh Impasse 145 Vladimir Kazimirov The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict between Armenians and Azerbaijanis, which broke out in 1988, was the first armed clash on the territory of the Soviet Union. The word ‘Karabakh’ became a common noun used to describe any armed conflict on the territory of the former Soviet Union. Just Do IT Nationality: Cyber-Russian Robert A. Saunders 156 Cyberspace offers great promise for the preservation of identity and nation- al culture. Through computer-mediated communication, nations – espe- cially challenged nations like the Russians in the ‘Near Abroad’ – have the ability to maintain and reinforce their identity in new and compelling ways. Russia On-Line Pavel Zhitnyuk 167 The Russian Internet community has consolidated, expanded and acquired the necessary links and levers to bring pressure on the authorities. This makes everybody hopeful that any potential attempts by the government at “making the Internet clearer” would be opposed by a force powerful enough to shape public opinion. Domestic Brains Heading Offshore Andrei Korotkov 179 Presently, it seems that Russian software producers are already prepared for the export of not only customized products but computer packages oriented toward end-users. Corporate customers are unanimous about Russia’s opportunities within IT market. Reviews A New Approach to Ethnicity and Nationalism 189 Vladislav Inozemtsev Russia at the Turn of the Century: Hopes and Reality 198 Review of the Novgorod International Conference RUSSIA IN GLOBAL AFFAIRS VOL. 2 • No. 4 • OCTOBER – DECEMBER • 2004 Published quarterly RUSSIA IN GLOBAL AFFAIRS BOARD OF TRUSTEES EDITORIAL BOARD Vladimir POTANIN Sergei KARAGANOV, Chairman (Chairman) Interros Holding Company Martti AHTISAARI Irina KHAKAMADA Vyacheslav NIKONOV (Finland) (Deputy Chairman) Sergei GENERALOV Helmut KOHL (Germany) Association for the Protection Graham ALLISON (U.S.A.) Andrei KOKOSHIN Vladimir OVCHINSKY of Investors’ Rights Alexei ARBATOV Mikhail KOMISSAR Vladimir POZNER Andrei KUZYAEV Lev BELOUSOV Vyacheslav KOPIEV Sergei PRIKHODKO LUKoil Overseas Holding Ltd. (Deputy Chairman) (in a personal capacity) Mikhail KOZHOKIN Boris KUZYK C. Fred BERGSTEN (U.S.A.) Yevgeny PRIMAKOV Yaroslav KUZMINOV New Concepts and Programs Carl BILDT Vladimir RYZHKOV Holding Industrial Company (Sweden) Sergei LAVROV (in a personal capacity) Horst TELTSCHIK Valery OKULOV Vladimir GRIGORYEV (Germany) Alexander LIVSHITS Aeroflot JSC (in a personal capacity) Anatoly TORKUNOV Vladimir LUKIN Nikolai TSVETKOV James HOGE (U.S.A) Lord William WALLACE Uralsib Financial Corporation Vladislav INOZEMTSEV Fyodor LUKYANOV (Great Britain) (Editor-in-Chief) Ruben VARDANYAN (Chairman, Sergei YASTRZHEMBSKY Troika-Dialog Group Board of Advisors) Vladimir MAU (in a personal capacity) Simon VAYNSHTOK Igor IVANOV Thierry de MONTBRIAL Igor YURGENS Transneft JSC (in a personal capacity) (France) Alexander ZHUKOV Victor VEKSELBERG Karl KAISER (Germany) Sergei ZVEREV SUAL-Holding Vladimir YEVTUSHENKOV BOARD OF ADVISORS Sistema JSFC Vladislav INOZEMTSEV, Vladimir ENTIN Georgy MIRSKY FOUNDERS: Chairman Leonid GRIGORIEV Mark SHKUNDIN Anatoly ADAMISHIN Alexander LOMANOV Alexander YURIEV COUNCIL ON FOREIGN Olga BUTORINA AND DEFENSE POLICY INFORMATIONAL PARTNERS RUSSIAN• UNION OF INDUSTRIALISTS •Newspapers: Izvestia, Moscow News, Rossiyskaya Gazeta, Sovershenno Sekretno, AND ENTREPRENEURS Trud, Vremya Novostey News Agencies: Interfax, RIA Novosti, Rosbalt • •Radio Station Echo of Moscow IZVESTIA • NATIONAL DAILY PUBLISHED BY LEGAL PR PARTNER GLOBUS PUBLISHING HOUSE CONSULTANCY KROS Public Relations KLISHIN & PARTNERS Company RUSSIAN EDITION Attorneys at Law IS PUBLISHED WITH PARTICIPATION OF Editor-in-Chief Fyodor Lukyanov Deputies Editor-in-Chief Natalya Kostromskaya, Timofei Bordachev Director General Assistant to Chairman Russian Edition FOREIGN AFFAIRS Irina Palekhova of the Editorial Board Yelena Blinnikova Copy Editors Editorial Office: Copy Editors Alexander Kuzyakov 11 Mokhovaya St., Bldg. 3B, Robert Bridge Computer Makeup Lyubov Ryklina Rinat Yakubov Natalia Zablotskite Moscow 103873, Russia Proof-Reader tel.: +7 (095) 980-7353 Proof-Reader Design and Layout Arnold Kun Lyudmila Kupchenko Konstantin Radchenko fax: +7 (095) 937-7611 e-mail: [email protected] Assistant to Editor-in-Chief Circulation http://www.globalaffairs.ru Ksenia Mikhailova Vladimir Astafyev Web Editor tel.: 7 (095) 937-7611 Photos contributed [email protected] by Fotobank Agency Registered with Pavel Zhitnyuk THE MINISTRY [email protected] OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION FOR PRESS, TV AND RADIO BROADCASTING AND MEANS OF MASS COMMUNICATION PI No. 77-12900 3 June 2002 The views