New Agenda for Russia-EU Relations
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POLICY BRIEF New agenda for Russia-EU relations M. ENTIN professor, MGIMO-University, RIAC expert E. ENTINA associate professor, NRU Higher School of Economics, RIAC expert No.4, May 2016 1 BOARD OF TRUSTEES PRESIDIUM Sergey Lavrov – Chairman Mikhail Margelov Petr Aven of the Board of Trustees Yury Osipov Igor Ivanov – RIAC President Sergey Prikhodko Andrey Kortunov – RIAC Director General Herman Gref Anatoly Torkunov Fyodor Lukyanov Aleksandr Dzasokhov Andrey Fursenko Aleksey Meshkov Leonid Drachevsky Aleksandr Shokhin Dmitry Peskov Aleksandr Dynkin Igor Yurgens Mikhail Komissar Konstantin Kosachev Editors-in-Chief: Natalia Evtikhevich, PhD, political science Alisa Ponomareva The Russian International Aff airs Council (RIAC) is a membership-based non-profi t Russian organiza- tion. RIAC’s activities are aimed at strengthening peace, friendship and solidarity between peoples, preventing international confl icts and promoting crisis resolution. The Council was founded in accor- dance with Russian Presidential Order No. 59-rp “On the Creation of the Russian International Aff airs Council non-profi t partnership”, dated February 2, 2010. Founders: Ministry of Foreign Aff airs of the Russian Federation Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation Russian Academy of Sciences Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs Interfax news agency RIAC Mission: The RIAC mission is to promote Russia’s prosperity by integrating it into the global world. RIAC oper- ates as a link between the state, the scholarly community, business and civil society in an eff ort to fi nd solutions to foreign policy issues. The views expressed herein do not necessarily refl ect those of RIAC. 2 Russian International Aff airs Council New agenda for Russia-EU relations Russia and the European Union are neighbours. Located on the same continent side by side, we share a common history and culture, and the same religious, philosophical and civilizational roots. We are building predominantly the same type of secular society based on a socially oriented economy and public representation. Russians have decisively broken with the past division of the world into two opposing camps. We are no longer separated by the deepest insurmountable gap of antagonistically incompatible ideologies. The threat of nuclear war, on the brink of which we were balancing for some time, has been eliminated. Russia and the EU follow similar strategic goals. Both sides strive for peace, stability, security, prosperity, sustainable development, high standards of living and happiness for their citizens. This is an objective reality which is not depen- – The current situation does not suit us and we dent on wishes, claims, judgments or actual do not want the continuation of the policies policies. Therefore, there are prerequisites to that led to it; fi nding a positive solution to the disagreements between us, no matter how complex they may – Our aim is to improve the relationship, to make it viable and to rely on cooperation, not be. The disagreements do not belong to the competition. higher order but relate to the methodology and tools of achieving strategic goals. The interests of Russia and the EU: Nevertheless, bilateral relations are experienc- diff erences and similarities ing an unprecedented crisis. Attempts to resolve it are deadlocked and the way out is not visible, Russia and the EU are fundamentally diff erent with signifi cant time required to achieve it. actors on the international scene; because of this they are likely to have diverse interests and build The crisis has a completely conscious, purely their hierarchy in diff erent ways. man-made character. It is caused by an unwilling- ness to seek mutually acceptable compromises The EU is apparently in transition, transforming that would suit both sides. Each decided that from an interstate association to something akin they had been too lenient, sacrifi ced too much to a supranational federal entity. Consequently, EU internal policy, despite a high level of inte- to their own detriment and therefore, will not gration, still remains a dominant element of the accept any more concessions. foreign policy of each Member State as well as of Russia and the EU are still «playing a zero sum the EU as a whole. game». In a number of vital areas, they have con- For the EU, the Union itself and its constituent frontational positions. If they are going to hold parts, including economic, monetary, fi nancial, to these,examining and learning from past expe- banking, agricultural, social, digital, political and riences and establishing what brings us together other unions, are an absolute priority. External and divides us are futile. This work makes sense only if we recognize the Russia and the EU are fundamentally dif- following: ferent actors on the international scene; – Historically during the formation and imple- because of this they are likely to have diverse mentation of policies relative to each other, interests and build their hierarchy in diff erent both sides committed gross assessment and ways. strategic errors; AUTHORS: Mark Entin, professor, MGIMO-University, RIAC expert Ekaterina Entina, associate professor, NRU Higher School of Economics, RIAC expert 3 Mark Entin, Ekaterina Entina · New agenda for Russia-EU relations factors are considered to be of secondary impor- partner, especially since no other global players tance. for various reasons were able to replace the EU in this sense. In its foreign policy, the EU is primarily interested in other countries sharing, supporting and imple- For the EU, relations with Russia are less impor- menting its internal approaches and solutions. It tant. Brussels did not have any coherent policy does not recognize that these may be region- towards Russia until the establishment of the specifi c and as such benefi cial only to itself. The Eastern Partnership, formed as a counterweight EU seeks nevertheless to transform it into auni- to Russian infl uence, and then the imposition versal approach,with the outside world seen as of sanctions. Mantras about creating common a peripheral addition, and not as an important spaces and the “Partnership for Modernization”, base of support to its largely self-suffi cient inter- years of negotiations on Russia’s accession to the nal eff orts. WTO and the new EU-Russia Basic Agreement have not evolved into a proper policy. For years, Russia has more or less successfully or without prominent results supported the Generally, the EU has been prepared to sacrifi ce its modernization agenda, which has largely been relations with Moscow, as demonstrated several dependent upon external factors. Russia’s depen- times between 1990 and 2010, with the cool- dence on these has been much greater and more ing down of interactions. Facing a choice after critical than the EU’s, although recently this has the Eastern Partnership summit in Vilnius when become less so. the legitimate government of Ukraine refused to sign an Agreement on the “comprehensive deep” Russia, Russian consumers and the Russian capi- Association, and then the escalating confl ict in tal aspire to such things that complement the Ukraine, the EU gradually halted its relations with national economy and society. These include: Russia. The start of deterioration in their relations – foreign investments as a catalyst for the never originated from Moscow. development and establishment of a modern business culture; The EU sacrifi ced these relations for its own self-interests – asserting such a world order in – technology and know-how to increase the Europe when everything depends on Brussels. It national economy’s level of competitiveness; makes decisions not only of the most important – goods and services, including tourism and strategic nature, but also on day-to-day issues – fi nance, to satisfy the unfulfi lled domestic political and regulatory. The role of the other market; players in Europe comes down to accepting, sup- – external markets for a range of competitive porting and following the decisions made. exports and capital investment. Russia has never accepted the legitimacy of such Therefore, the Russian political elite focuses claims and insisted on equality and joint deci- the country’s foreign policy initially on creating sion-making, so the EU has led to the ousting of favorable conditions for internal development, Russia from the European space. However, Russia and then on building relations with other states will never give up its active presence in Europe or and unions which would contribute to this. In agree with the EU-centric order in Europe. recent years it has been increasingly gravitating This is a major divergence of interests from towards the implementation of its own geopo- which all others, fi ctional and real, are derived. litical project, initially with the formation of the They can be easily resolved either through diplo- Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), which has now matic channels or as a result of joint eff orts, once developed into a much more ambitious project. an approach is found to overcome the basic con- It is largely discussed now by the Russian expert tradiction. community. The fi rst concrete step leading to the Greater Eurasia was an international agreement to converge EAEU activities with the Economic The EU has led to the ousting of Russia Belt of Silk Road. from the European space. However, Rus- Russia could satisfy a signifi cant proportion of its sia will never give up its active presence interests by developing relations with the EU. It in Europe or agree with the EU-centric order is therefore logical that the EU was perceived by in Europe. Moscow as a natural, organic and like-minded 4 Russian International Aff airs Council The divergence in values is absolutely contrived. confl icts of interests will continue to arise for It does not exist. What exists in reality are the unrelated reasons and will remain unclear and counterclaims for a sole or joint understanding unpredictable for both sides.