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Delta Levees Investment Strategy Final Report DELTA LEVEES INVESTMENT STRATEGY FINAL REPORT July 2017 DELTA LEVEES INVESTMENT STRATEGY FINAL REPORT TEAM DELTA LEVEES Arcadis U.S., Inc. INVESTMENT The Catalyst Group Convey STRATEGY Environmental Science Associates Final Report RAND Corporation RiverSmith Engineering Inc. Shannon & Wilson Prepared for: Delta Stewardship Council REPORT AUTHORS 980 9th Street, Suite 1500 Sacramento, California 95814 Hollie L. Ellis Shannon & Wilson Charles Gardiner The Catalyst Group David Groves, PhD RAND Corporation Prepared by: Dolores Henricksen Arcadis U.S., Inc. Arcadis U.S., Inc. Jessica Ludy, CFM Environmental Science Associates 101 Creekside Ridge Court George McMahon, PhD, PE Arcadis U.S., Inc. Suite 200 Lawrence H. Roth, PE, GE Arcadis U.S., Inc. Roseville, California 95678 Thomas W. Smith, PE, GE RiverSmith Engineering Inc. Tel 916 786 0320 Heather Sprague Arcadis U.S., Inc. Fax 916 786 0366 Ramona Swenson, PhD Environmental Science Associates Melanie Turlington, PE Arcadis U.S., Inc. Internal Reference: DELTA STEWARDSHIP RV009910.0000 COUNCIL STAFF Date: You Chen (Tim) Chao, PE July 2017 Keith Coolidge This document is intended only for the Dustin Jones, PE use of the individual or entity for which it Cindy Messer was prepared and may contain Erin Mullin information that is privileged, confidential Dan Ray and exempt from disclosure under Ryan Stanbra applicable law. Any dissemination, distribution or copying of this document is strictly prohibited. Cover photo courtesy of California Department of Water Resources. arcadis.com dlis final report_rev2_july 2017.docx DELTA LEVEES INVESTMENT STRATEGY FINAL REPORT VERSION CONTROL Revision No Date Issued Description 0 May 4, 2017 For client review and team review 1 June 7, 2017 Second draft for client and team review 2 July 31, 2017 Final for submittal to client arcadis.com dlis final report_rev2_july 2017.docx DELTA LEVEES INVESTMENT STRATEGY FINAL REPORT CONTENTS Acronyms and Abbreviations ....................................................................................................................... vii Glossary/Terminology .................................................................................................................................... x Executive Summary ................................................................................................................................. ES-1 Risk Analysis ..................................................................................................................................... ES-2 Priorities ............................................................................................................................................ ES-3 Considerations for Levee Improvements .......................................................................................... ES-6 Funding for Levee Maintenance ....................................................................................................... ES-7 Recommendations ............................................................................................................................ ES-9 1.0 Introduction ............................................................................................................................................. 1 1.1 Purpose and Scope ........................................................................................................................ 2 1.2 Tolerable Risk ................................................................................................................................. 4 1.3 Limitations ....................................................................................................................................... 5 2.0 Stakeholder Engagement ....................................................................................................................... 6 2.1 Identification of Key Stakeholders .................................................................................................. 6 2.2 Methods and Topics of Stakeholder Engagement .......................................................................... 8 2.2.1 Data Sources and Validation ............................................................................................... 8 2.2.2 Hydraulic Connectivity and Island/Tract Determination ...................................................... 8 2.2.3 Climate Change ................................................................................................................... 9 2.2.4 Metrics Development ........................................................................................................... 9 2.2.5 Levee Improvements ........................................................................................................... 9 2.2.6 Investment Priorities ............................................................................................................ 9 3.0 Development of Risk Analysis Methodology ......................................................................................... 10 3.1 State Interests in the Delta ........................................................................................................... 10 3.2 Sea Level Rise Considerations ..................................................................................................... 11 3.2.1 Sea Level Rise .................................................................................................................. 11 3.2.2 Spatial Variation of Tide Effects in the Delta and Suisun Marsh ....................................... 14 3.2.3 Sea Level Prediction Uncertainties ................................................................................... 16 3.3 Risk Analysis ................................................................................................................................. 18 3.3.1 Probability of Levee Failure ............................................................................................... 19 arcadis.com dlis final report_rev2_july 2017.docx i DELTA LEVEES INVESTMENT STRATEGY FINAL REPORT 3.3.2 Expected Annual Fatalities (Risk to Life) .......................................................................... 33 3.3.3 Expected Annual Damages (Risk to Property and Infrastructure) .................................... 35 3.3.4 Risk to Water Supply ......................................................................................................... 37 3.3.5 Risk of Harm to the Ecosystem ......................................................................................... 39 3.3.6 Delta as a Place Metrics .................................................................................................... 42 4.0 Priorities for State Investments in Delta Levees ................................................................................... 46 4.1 Risk to State Interests ................................................................................................................... 46 4.2 Decision Support Tool .................................................................................................................. 47 4.3 High Risk Islands and Tracts ........................................................................................................ 48 4.4 Special Considerations ................................................................................................................. 49 4.4.1 Hydraulic Connection ........................................................................................................ 49 4.4.2 Ecosystem Restoration Opportunity .................................................................................. 49 4.4.3 Delta as a Place ................................................................................................................ 50 4.4.4 Suisun Marsh Levees ........................................................................................................ 50 4.5 Priorities for State Investment in Delta Levees ............................................................................. 51 4.6 Future Considerations .................................................................................................................. 58 5.0 Considerations for Levee Improvements .............................................................................................. 59 5.1 Levee Improvement Guidelines .................................................................................................... 59 5.2 PL 84-99 Investment Alternative ................................................................................................... 62 5.2.1 Data Sources ..................................................................................................................... 62 5.2.2 Levee Geometry Analysis and Construction Cost Estimate ............................................. 66 5.2.3 Significant Assumptions .................................................................................................... 67 5.2.4 Summary of Results .......................................................................................................... 67 5.2.5 Comparison to Baseline Risk ............................................................................................ 71 5.2.6 Effect of Sea Level Rise on PL 84-99 Costs ..................................................................... 74 5.2.7 Comparison to Other PL 84-99 Analyses .........................................................................
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