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How Far Do England's Second-Order Cities Emulate London As Human-Capital ‘Escalators’?

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Tony Champion, Mike Coombes and Ian Gordon How far do England's second-order cities emulate London as human-capital ‘escalators’? Article (Published version) (Refereed) Original citation: Champion, Tony, Coombes, Mike and Gordon, Ian (2014) How far do England's second-order cities emulate London as human-capital ‘escalators’? Population, Space and Place, 20 (5). pp. 421-433. ISSN 1544-8444 DOI: 10.1002/psp.1806 © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. This version available at: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/51260/ Available in LSE Research Online: August 2014 LSE has developed LSE Research Online so that users may access research output of the School. Copyright © and Moral Rights for the papers on this site are retained by the individual authors and/or other copyright owners. Users may download and/or print one copy of any article(s) in LSE Research Online to facilitate their private study or for non-commercial research. You may not engage in further distribution of the material or use it for any profit-making activities or any commercial gain. You may freely distribute the URL (http://eprints.lse.ac.uk) of the LSE Research Online website. POPULATION, SPACE AND PLACE Popul. Space Place 20, 421–433 (2014) Published online 9 July 2013 in Wiley Online Library (wileyonlinelibrary.com) DOI: 10.1002/psp.1806 How Far do England's Second-Order Cities Emulate London as Human- Capital ‘Escalators’? Tony Champion1,*, Mike Coombes1 and Ian Gordon2 1Centre for Urban and Regional Development Studies, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK 2Department of Geography and Environment, London School of Economics, London, UK ABSTRACT Second-order cities, therefore, cannot rely on the speculative migration of talented people but need In the urban resurgence accompanying the suitable jobs ready for them to access. Copyright growth of the knowledge economy, second-order © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. cities appear to be losing out to the principal city, especially where the latter is much larger and Accepted 11 June 2013 benefits from substantially greater agglomeration economies. The view that any city can make itself Keywords: human-capital escalator; second-order attractive to creative talent seems at odds with the cities; England; ONS Longitudinal Study; career idea of a country having just one ‘escalator region’ progression; city region where the rate of career progression is much faster, especially for in-migrants. This paper takes the case of England, with its highly primate INTRODUCTION city-size distribution, and tests how its second-order cities (in size order, Birmingham, ecent years have seen an urban Manchester, Leeds, Newcastle, Bristol, Sheffield, resurgence in many of the countries that Liverpool, Nottingham, and Leicester) compare R experienced a major decline in city with London as human-capital escalators. The fortunes in the 1960s and 1970s (Cheshire, 2006; analysis is based on the Office for National Turok and Mykhnendo, 2007). This has been put Statistics Longitudinal Survey of linked census down to a combination of factors, including the records for 1991–2001 and uses one key indicator effects of globalisation, the shift towards the of upward social mobility – the transition from quaternary sector of transactional activity, and a White Collar Non-core to White Collar Core. For refocusing of government policy on urban non-migrants, the transition rate for the regeneration (Dunning, 2000; Edmonds, 2003; second-order cities combined is found to fall well Malecki, 2007; EU Regional Policy, 2009). Stress short of London's, but in one case – Manchester – has been laid on the importance of agglomeration therateissignificantly higher than the rest of the economies accruing to knowledge-based industries country outside the Greater South East. Those that cluster together (Krugman, 1996; OECD, 1996; moving to the second-order cities during the Glaeser and Maré, 2001; Maskell and Malmberg, decade experienced much stronger upward social 2007). In particular, the concentration of high-skill mobility than their non-migrants, but this labour in large metropolitan areas is seen to enable ‘migrant premium’ was generally similar to that their employers to make more efficient use of the for London, suggesting that it results from people available human capital, which leads to these cities moving only after they have secured a better job. being especially attractive to people from elsewhere who want to ‘get on’ in their careers (Glaeser and Saiz, 2003; Montgomery, 2006; Fielding, 2007; Florida, 2008). *Correspondence to: Tony Champion, Centre for Urban and The benefits of such agglomeration economies Regional Development Studies (CURDS), Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK. cannot, however, be expected to accrue equally to E-mail: [email protected] all large metropolitan areas (Berry and Glaeser, Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 422 T. Champion, M. Coombes and I. Gordon 2005). In principle, the larger the urban agglomera- The third section presents the results, starting tion, the greater is its growth potential and the more with the patterns of career progression of those attractive it is to potential migrants from elsewhere, who stayed in the same agglomeration over the thereby leading to a cumulative reaction in the reference period and then comparing these with absence of any major checking ‘diseconomies of the fortunes of those who moved to them during scale’ (MIER, 2009a; Storper and Scott, 2009). This the period. Finally,the paper provides a concluding line of reasoning poses an especially severe discussion and suggestions for further research. challenge to the economic prospects of the second- order cities in countries with a primate city-size BACKGROUND TO THE RESEARCH distribution and, most notably, in countries whose QUESTION second-order cities are striving to throw off the legacies of the industrial era and restructure away In recent years, there has been a considerable from textiles, coal, and steel or heavy engineering growth of interest among both policymakers (Parkinson et al., 2012). and researchers in second-order cities, that is, A classic example of this situation is provided by the tier of urban agglomerations immediately the UK, with its pioneering of the industrial below the premier city (for reviews, see revolution and the growth of London as the Parkinson et al., 2012; Champion and Townsend, capital of the British Empire. London hugely 2013). As indicated earlier, this interest has been dominates the urban system of the UK and – given stimulated by the decline of manufacturing as that Wales, Scotland, and Northern Ireland have the major production sector and the emergence some degree of political autonomy – especially that of knowledge-based industries, because the latter of England (see in the succeeding text). This is are seen as being the most vibrant where they can reflected in the commentary on the drivers of the take advantage of the greatest agglomeration North–south divide in England (Smith, 1989; Ward, economies. Such restructuring has prompted 2011), including the line of research that has fears of the largest city benefitting disproportion- portrayed London and the south-east as England's ately at the expense of the second-order cities. ‘escalator region’ (starting with Fielding, 1992). This is even more the case in countries where Interregional migration in England is seen to pivot the latter are struggling with the legacy of on London, with young adults being drawn there deindustrialisation, and the largest city is the to take advantage of faster career progression before national capital with a long-established presence ‘stepping off the escalator’ towards the end of their of command and control functions. working lives (Coombes and Charlton, 1992; Fiel- This concern about the economic prospects of ding, 1993; Champion et al., 2007). second-order cities is certainly very evident in This paper seeks to discover whether England's Europe (EU) and not least in the UK. For instance, second-order cities are acting as human-capital following a major investigation of EU's ‘second-tier ‘escalators’ for their residents and also for migrants cities’,Parkinsonet al. (2012: 82) concluded that, that choose them as their destination rather than the although ‘capital cities are crucially important to national capital. Is the ‘oversized’ capital in a class theirnationaleconomiesandmustbeableto ofitsownintermsofpeople'spaceofupwardoccu- complete in a global market’, their growth should pational mobility? Or does England's second tier of ‘not [be] at the expense of everywhere else’.Therisk urban agglomerations show any signs of rivalling is that over time the capitals will so dominate the London in this respect? In short, is there any case urban system that the national economy becomes that could be made for advising aspiring young spatially and structurally unbalanced. In contrast workers to move there rather than to London? to the experience of Germany, where a strong set The remainder of the paper comprises four of second-order cities was found to be helping to parts. The first sets out the background to this drive national economic performance, in a clear line of inquiry and its English context in more majority of EU countries, the gross domestic prod- detail. This is followed by a description and uctofthesecondcityin2007waslessthantwo- justification of the approach used in the analysis, fifths that of the national capital. On this criterion, including the related issues of data source and the UK lies at the other extreme from Germany, with choice of career-progression metric as well as its second largest urban agglomeration having less selecting and defining the second-order cities. than one-eighth of the gross domestic product of Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Popul. Space Place 20, 421–433 (2014) DOI: 10.1002/psp England's Second-Order Cities as Human-Capital ‘Escalators’? 423 London – with the ratio being lower only for Hun- conditions (ippr north, 2009; Clayton, 2011; Centre gary and with only France and Latvia being simi- for Cities, 2012; Parkinson et al., 2012; Champion larly unbalanced.
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