NORTH the BSP in Delhi. Whether this is a fallout popularity. On the other side, the BJP Jaffrelot, Christopher (2001): “The Hindu Nationalist Movement in Delhi: From ‘Locals’ Refugees and of the election result in Uttar Pradesh could not project a good leader, did not Towards Peripheral Group?” in Veronique Dupont r emains conjecture. have any specific agenda to match that of et al, Urban Space and Human Destinies (New Delhi: Manohar). the Congress, and pursued an exclusivist Kumar, Sanjay (2009): “Delhi Assembly Election: Conclusion policy, keeping away from social cate­ 2008”, Economic & Political Weekly, 7 February, 27­30. The decisive victory of the Congress was gories known as Congress supporters. Puri, Geeta (1980): Bharatiya Jana Sangh – Organisa- because almost all sections in Delhi sup­ tion and Ideology (New Delhi: Sterling). Puri, Yogesh (1993): Party Politics during Nehru Era ported it. Its clean leadership, develop­ References (New Delhi: National Book Organisation). ment agenda with a local emphasis and its Cadéne, Philippe (2001): “Delhi’s Space in India’s Soni, Anita (2000): “Urban Conquest of Outer Delhi: strategy of bringing all competing local U rban Structure” in Veronique Dupont et al, Beneficiaries, Intermediaries and Victims” in D elhi: Urban Space and Human Destinies (New V eronique Dupont et al, Delhi: Urban Space and identities into its fold contributed to its Delhi: Manohar), 241­50. Human Destinies (New Delhi: Manohar). However, the recently held elections saw Haryana: Congress Retains Its a reversal of this trend, as the incumbent Congress Party was able to secure around Electoral Supremacy 42% of the votes polled and retain its tally of seats won in the previous Lok Sabha elections. If for nothing else, the 2009 Lok Kushal Pal, Praveen Rai Sabha elections from Haryana attract attention for this very interesting fact. In every election since the n Haryana the 2009 general elections creation of Haryana, the ruling were seen as a referendum on the Operational Hypothesis party has been defeated, but this IBhupinder Singh Hooda led Congress The 2009 election verdict reveals that the government’s four­year governance of the Congress was able to retain its tally of time around there has been a state. The incumbent Congress govern­ seats won in the Lok Sabha elections in reversal of this anti­incumbency ment contested the elections on its “devel­ 2004 and also secured more or less the trend. State­level factors played opment plank” and banked heavily on its same vote share. Its main challengers, the a far more important role than record. The main rivals of Congress, the BJP and its ally the INLD, contested five Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its ally seats each in the state but failed to win national­level issues in deciding the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD), formed even a single one. In spite of the pre­poll the outcome in the 2009 Lok a pre­election alliance. alliance, the vote share of the BJP dropped Sabha election. The Chief The Congress once again managed to by 5% and that of the INLD fell 6% as com­ Minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda win nine out of the 10 Lok Sabha seats pared to the last Lok Sabha elections. without any drop in its vote percentage The Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) also factor was in large measure since the last Lok Sabha elections. failed to open its account in the state, but responsible for this tilt as the The election outcome was remarkable as it made impressive electoral gains in terms people had not forgotten the ills it marked an important reversal of elec­ of the votes polled, increasing its vote of the previous O P Chautala toral trends in the state. The electoral his­ share by over 10%. The Haryana Janhit tory of Haryana shows that it is a state Congress (HJC) managed to win one seat government. with high levels of electoral volatility.1 securing around 10% of the votes polled. As a result, since the creation of the state Apart from the incumbent government there has been a change in the ruling being able to beat anti­incumbency, this party in every assembly election and the election also witnessed the victory of the ruling party has suffered in the Lok Congress in spite of a coalition between its Sabha elections. rivals – the BJP and INLD. This too is a re­ versal of the existing electoral trend in the Table 1: Summary of Election Verdict (2009) Parties Seats Seats Won Vote (%) Change state. Earlier elections reveal that the Contested of Vote since 2004 Congress always fared badly and lost elec­ Congress 10 9 41.8 0 tions whenever there was a pre­election BJP 5 0 12.1 -5.1 alliance among its main opposition parties Kushal Pal ([email protected]) is with the Department of Political Science, INLD 5 0 15.8 -6.6 in the state. Dayal Singh College, Karnal, Haryana. BSP 10 0 15.7 +10.8 The electoral history of Haryana shows Praveen Rai ([email protected]) is with HJC 10 1 10.2 +10.2 that the state falls in the cluster of states Lokniti, Centre for the Study of Developing Others 170 0 4.3 -9.3 in India with high levels of electoral vola­ Societies, Delhi. Turnout: 67.4 %. Change in turnout as compared to 2004: +2% . Source: CSDS Data Unit. tility. More volatile states also experience Economic & Political Weekly EPW september 26, 2009 vol xliv no 39 177 NORTH larger anti­incumbent swings, but the An in­depth analysis of public opinion to weigh on the minds of the urban vot­ correlation is not perfect, which indicates based on the data from National Election ers. During the Chautala regime people in that electoral volatility cannot be reduced Study 2009 (NES 2009)3 was done to find Haryana held a very negative perception simply to anti­incumbency (Chhibber and out whether there is evidence that this about the chief minister and his two sons. Nooruddin 2008). One of the factors for was the most important factor. There was a sense of fear among the peo­ explaining the highly volatile nature of The findings of the survey clearly point ple about Chautala and his sons (Joshi politics in Haryana can be the existence of out that the Hooda government’s image and Rai 2004). It seems that the urban political alliance in the state and its impact as a development­oriented government voters still remembered the negative im­ on the electoral outcome. An analysis of enabled it to counter the logic of anti­ age and misgovernance of the Chautalas’ elections held in the last two decades in incumbency and keep at bay its main op­ and rated their party poorly. the state have shown that the Congress position BJP­INLD alliance in the elections. Voters were additionally asked to com­ has always performed better in the ab­ The electorate in Haryana seemed to be paratively assess and rate the political sence of a political alliance between op­ satisfied with the Congress government party that was best suited to handle issues position political parties or political coali­ in the state, as more than Table 2: High Levels of Satisfaction with Performance of State Government 2 tion against it (Joshi and Rai 2004). six out of 10 voters ex­ Satisfied Dissatisfied Net In this context it becomes crucial to find pressed satisfaction with Satisfaction Score out the key determinants that explain the the performance of the All respondents 64 26 +38 verdict in favour of Congress. The opera­ incumbent government. Table 2.1: Even NDA Voters Were Satisfied tional hypothesis is that the verdict in A majority of voters who Congress voters 86 8 +76 favour of Congress in Haryana is largely voted for the NDA and NDA voters 56 37 +19 due to the positive image of the incumbent more than four out of 10 BSP voters 42 49 -7 chief minister and perceived satisfaction of voters of HJC also report­ HJC voters 47 32 +15 the people with the performance of state ed satisfaction with the Table 2.2: Satisfaction across Communities government. Other factors like the multipo­ performance of the Con­ Jats 69 25 +44 lar nature of the contest and fragmentation gress government in Har­ Upper Castes 59 27 +32 of opposition votes, imperfect pre­poll alli­ yana. The performance Yadavs and Gujjars 60 29 +31 ance of INLD­BJP and people’s perception of of the state government Other OBCs 70 19 +51 Congress as the party that can address the was also highly rated by Dalits 60 32 +28 “No opinion” (10%) excluded from the analysis. issues concerning Haryana might have voters from different so­ “net satisfaction score” is defined as satisfied with state government minus dissatisfied. played a role would also be analysed. cial groups. Table 2.2 Question: What is your assessment of the work done by the Congress government in Haryana in the last four years – would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with it? shows that around six out (Probe further whether “fully” or “somewhat” satisfied or dissatisfied.) Key Determinants of 10 voters from different Source: National Election Study 2009; Weighted data sets. All figures in per cent. The key determinants that explain the caste communities also Table 3: Voters Rated Hooda’s Regime Better Than Chautala’s Rule Hooda Chautala Net verdict of Lok Sabha elections in Haryana expressed satisfaction with Government Government Advantage and the spectacular performance of Con­ governance in the last Better Better Hooda Government gress are: (i) the multipolar contest be­ four years in Haryana. All respondents 50 22 +32 tween the Congress, INLD­BJP, HJC and The voters were asked Table 3.1: Voters of Different Parties Preferred Hooda Government BSP in the state.