north the BSP in Delhi. Whether this is a fallout popularity. On the other side, the BJP Jaffrelot, Christopher (2001): “The Hindu Nationalist Movement in Delhi: From ‘Locals’ Refugees and of the election result in Uttar Pradesh could not project a good leader, did not Towards Peripheral Group?” in Veronique Dupont remains conjecture. have any specific agenda to match that of et al, Urban Space and Human Destinies (New Delhi: Manohar). the Congress, and pursued an exclusivist Kumar, Sanjay (2009): “Delhi Assembly Election: Conclusion policy, keeping away from social cate 2008”, Economic & Political Weekly, 7 February, 27-30. The decisive victory of the Congress was gories known as Congress supporters. Puri, Geeta (1980): Bharatiya Jana Sangh – Organisa- because almost all sections in Delhi sup tion and Ideology (New Delhi: Sterling). Puri, Yogesh (1993): Party Politics during Nehru Era ported it. Its clean leadership, develop References (New Delhi: National Book Organisation). ment agenda with a local emphasis and its Cadéne, Philippe (2001): “Delhi’s Space in India’s Soni, Anita (2000): “Urban Conquest of Outer Delhi: strategy of bringing all competing local Urban Structure” in Veronique Dupont et al, Beneficiaries, Intermediaries and Victims” in Delhi: Urban Space and Human Destinies (New Veronique Dupont et al, Delhi: Urban Space and identities into its fold contributed to its Delhi: Manohar), 241-50. Human Destinies (New Delhi: Manohar).
However, the recently held elections saw Haryana: Congress Retains Its a reversal of this trend, as the incumbent Congress Party was able to secure around Electoral Supremacy 42% of the votes polled and retain its tally of seats won in the previous Lok Sabha elections. If for nothing else, the 2009 Lok Kushal Pal, Praveen Rai Sabha elections from Haryana attract attention for this very interesting fact. In every election since the n Haryana the 2009 general elections creation of Haryana, the ruling were seen as a referendum on the Operational Hypothesis party has been defeated, but this IBhupinder Singh Hooda led Congress The 2009 election verdict reveals that the government’s four-year governance of the Congress was able to retain its tally of time around there has been a state. The incumbent Congress govern seats won in the Lok Sabha elections in reversal of this anti-incumbency ment contested the elections on its “devel 2004 and also secured more or less the trend. State-level factors played opment plank” and banked heavily on its same vote share. Its main challengers, the a far more important role than record. The main rivals of Congress, the BJP and its ally the INLD, contested five Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its ally seats each in the state but failed to win national-level issues in deciding the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD), formed even a single one. In spite of the pre-poll the outcome in the 2009 Lok a pre-election alliance. alliance, the vote share of the BJP dropped Sabha election. The Chief The Congress once again managed to by 5% and that of the INLD fell 6% as com Minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda win nine out of the 10 Lok Sabha seats pared to the last Lok Sabha elections. without any drop in its vote percentage The Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) also factor was in large measure since the last Lok Sabha elections. failed to open its account in the state, but responsible for this tilt as the The election outcome was remarkable as it made impressive electoral gains in terms people had not forgotten the ills it marked an important reversal of elec of the votes polled, increasing its vote of the previous O P Chautala toral trends in the state. The electoral his share by over 10%. The Haryana Janhit tory of Haryana shows that it is a state Congress (HJC) managed to win one seat government. with high levels of electoral volatility.1 securing around 10% of the votes polled. As a result, since the creation of the state Apart from the incumbent government there has been a change in the ruling being able to beat anti-incumbency, this party in every assembly election and the election also witnessed the victory of the ruling party has suffered in the Lok Congress in spite of a coalition between its Sabha elections. rivals – the BJP and INLD. This too is a re versal of the existing electoral trend in the Table 1: Summary of Election Verdict (2009) Parties Seats Seats Won Vote (%) Change state. Earlier elections reveal that the Contested of Vote since 2004 Congress always fared badly and lost elec Congress 10 9 41.8 0 tions whenever there was a pre-election BJP 5 0 12.1 -5.1 alliance among its main opposition parties Kushal Pal ([email protected]) is with the Department of Political Science, INLD 5 0 15.8 -6.6 in the state. Dayal Singh College, Karnal, Haryana. BSP 10 0 15.7 +10.8 The electoral history of Haryana shows Praveen Rai ([email protected]) is with HJC 10 1 10.2 +10.2 that the state falls in the cluster of states Lokniti, Centre for the Study of Developing Others 170 0 4.3 -9.3 in India with high levels of electoral vola Societies, Delhi. Turnout: 67.4 %. Change in turnout as compared to 2004: +2% . Source: CSDS Data Unit. tility. More volatile states also experience
Economic & Political Weekly EPW september 26, 2009 vol xliv no 39 177 north larger anti-incumbent swings, but the An in-depth analysis of public opinion to weigh on the minds of the urban vot correlation is not perfect, which indicates based on the data from National Election ers. During the Chautala regime people in that electoral volatility cannot be reduced Study 2009 (NES 2009)3 was done to find Haryana held a very negative perception simply to anti-incumbency (Chhibber and out whether there is evidence that this about the chief minister and his two sons. Nooruddin 2008). One of the factors for was the most important factor. There was a sense of fear among the peo explaining the highly volatile nature of The findings of the survey clearly point ple about Chautala and his sons (Joshi politics in Haryana can be the existence of out that the Hooda government’s image and Rai 2004). It seems that the urban political alliance in the state and its impact as a development-oriented government voters still remembered the negative im on the electoral outcome. An analysis of enabled it to counter the logic of anti- age and misgovernance of the Chautalas’ elections held in the last two decades in incumbency and keep at bay its main op and rated their party poorly. the state have shown that the Congress position BJP-INLD alliance in the elections. Voters were additionally asked to com has always performed better in the ab The electorate in Haryana seemed to be paratively assess and rate the political sence of a political alliance between op satisfied with the Congress government party that was best suited to handle issues position political parties or political coali in the state, as more than Table 2: High Levels of Satisfaction with Performance of State Government 2 tion against it (Joshi and Rai 2004). six out of 10 voters ex Satisfied Dissatisfied Net In this context it becomes crucial to find pressed satisfaction with Satisfaction Score out the key determinants that explain the the performance of the All respondents 64 26 +38 verdict in favour of Congress. The opera incumbent government. Table 2.1: Even NDA Voters Were Satisfied tional hypothesis is that the verdict in A majority of voters who Congress voters 86 8 +76 favour of Congress in Haryana is largely voted for the NDA and NDA voters 56 37 +19 due to the positive image of the incumbent more than four out of 10 BSP voters 42 49 -7 chief minister and perceived satisfaction of voters of HJC also report HJC voters 47 32 +15 the people with the performance of state ed satisfaction with the Table 2.2: Satisfaction across Communities government. Other factors like the multipo performance of the Con Jats 69 25 +44 lar nature of the contest and fragmentation gress government in Har Upper Castes 59 27 +32 of opposition votes, imperfect pre-poll alli yana. The performance Yadavs and Gujjars 60 29 +31 ance of INLD-BJP and people’s perception of of the state government Other OBCs 70 19 +51 Congress as the party that can address the was also highly rated by Dalits 60 32 +28 “No opinion” (10%) excluded from the analysis. issues concerning Haryana might have voters from different so “net satisfaction score” is defined as satisfied with state government minus dissatisfied. played a role would also be analysed. cial groups. Table 2.2 Question: What is your assessment of the work done by the Congress government in Haryana in the last four years – would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with it? shows that around six out (Probe further whether “fully” or “somewhat” satisfied or dissatisfied.) Key Determinants of 10 voters from different Source: National Election Study 2009; Weighted data sets. All figures in per cent. The key determinants that explain the caste communities also Table 3: Voters Rated Hooda’s Regime Better Than Chautala’s Rule Hooda Chautala Net verdict of Lok Sabha elections in Haryana expressed satisfaction with Government Government Advantage and the spectacular performance of Con governance in the last Better Better Hooda Government gress are: (i) the multipolar contest be four years in Haryana. All respondents 50 22 +32 tween the Congress, INLD-BJP, HJC and The voters were asked Table 3.1: Voters of Different Parties Preferred Hooda Government BSP in the state. The result showed that the to assess and rate the ef Congress voters 78 5 +68 Congress was able to retain its vote share ficacy of the Hooda gov NDA voters 23 49 -26 of the 2004 Lok Sabha elections but the ernment as compared BSP voters 35 24 +9 opposition votes got further fragmented. with its predecessor Om HJC voters 30 20 +10 The mobilisation of a quarter of the votes Prakash Chautala’s gov Table 3.2: Rural Urban Differentials in Rating Hooda Government between HJC and BSP led to the fragmen ernment. Table 3 shows Rural 46 24 +22 tation of opposition votes that worked in that the Hooda govern Urban 60 12 +48 favour of the Congress; (ii) the pre-poll ment had a net advantage Table 3.3: Gender Divide in Rating Hooda Government alliance of the INLD-BJP proved to be a of 32 percentage points Male 55 21 +34 non-starter and its combined loss of 12% over Chautala’s govern Female 41 22 +19 vote share proved decisive. One reason ment. The highest rating “No Opinion” (13%), “Both Equally Good” (8%) and “Both Equally Bad” (7%) excluded from analysis. that could explain the loss of vote share by for the Hooda govern Question: If we compare the present Bhupinder Singh Hooda-led Congress government with the both the NDA partners could be the poor ment was reported from previous Om Prakash Chautala led INLD-NDA government which one has been better? Source: National Election Study-2009; Weighted Data Sets. All figures in per cent. transfer of votes to each other in this elec voters in urban settings tion. This directly benefited the Congress; with 60% reporting that it is better than the concerned with the state. The Congress (iii) the positive image of the Bhupinder previous government. The Hooda govern was rated better than the INLD, BJP and Singh Hooda along with high levels of ment was better rated than Chautala’s BSP in protecting the interests of farmers, satisfaction with his government tilted the primarily on issues of governance but the handling law and order and also for voters towards the Congress. component of personal image also seems finding a solution to the Satlej-Yamuna
178 september 26, 2009 vol xliv no 39 EPW Economic & Political Weekly north canal interstate dispute. The popularity than their combined vote share in what which saw the Congress sweep all the 10 seats in the state. In state assembly elections in 1987, the of the Congress seems to be one variable was a bad election for them in 2004. Lok Dal lead by Devi Lal forged an alliance with that expresses the overall satisfaction Instead of gaining from the alliance the BJP winning 85 out of the 90 assembly seats in the state. Without any alliance in 1991, the with the government and the positive synergy, they actually lost the only seat Congress returned to power, winning 51 of the rating the government enjoys on issues they won last time. The Jat votes of the total 90 seats elections. In the parliamentary elections held in the same year the Congress won of development. INLD and the Bania-Punjabi votes of the nine of the 10 seats it contested. In the state as BJP did not transfer to each other in this sembly elections in 1996, the Haryana Vikas Par Demographic Patterns of Voting ty (HVP) and the BJP formed an alliance. The election. This time 5% of those who voted Congress fared poorly, winning just nine assem The positive image of Bhupinder Singh for BJP in the last elections did not vote bly seats. Its poor performance continued in the general elections held the same year and the Hooda and his governance led to a subtle for NDA. The results strengthen the belief party won only two Lok Sabha seats. In the gen change in the caste profile of Congress that the BJP might have done much better eral elections held in 1999, the INLD contested the elections in alliance with the BJP as part of supporters in the state. Hooda’s efforts at if it could have formed an alliance with the NDA. The NDA swept the elections winning mobilising the Jats did succeed as the HJC as this new outfit secured 10% votes all the 10 seats and the Congress drew a blank. In the general election held in 2004, the INLD-BJP Congress enhanced its vote share by 17 and won a seat. alliance broke before the elections. This once percentage points among this powerful To conclude, it can be said that the vot again benefited the Congress and it performed well winning nine out of 10 seats. community that accounts for about a quar ers in Haryana believed that the Congress 3 National Election Study (NES) 2009 a post-poll ter of the state’s electorate. This shift of Jat government did succeed in good govern survey was conducted by CSDS, Delhi. Seven hun votes in favour of the Congress largely ac ance and delivering basic goods and serv dred and three randomly selected respondents in Haryana spread across 76 locations (polling sta counts for the poor show of the BJP’s ally ices in the state. Most people seemed to be tions) were interviewed using a standard-struc INLD that has traditionally enjoyed mas tured questionnaire. A multistage stratified ran satisfied with the performance of the dom sample was drawn using the probability sive support from the Jats. Hooda government and rated it much sampling method. The 72 locations were spread across 18 assembly segments and covered all the The Congress also gained significantly higher than the Chautala administration. 10 parliamentary constituency of the state. The among the lower Other Backward Classes The positive image of the government fieldwork was conducted after voting finished on the evening of 7 May 2009, and was completed by (OBCs) in the state. However this gain combined with faith of the voters in Con the evening of 19 May 2009. The Haryana compo was offset to some extent as the Congress gress benefited the Congress. The Congress nent of the survey was conducted under a UGC Major Research Proposal titled “Lok Sabha General lost nearly one-third of its support among also gained from the multipolar nature of Election 2009: A Behaviourial Study of Poltical the dalits, the second largest community contest in the state and an imperfect alliance Attitudes and Opinion in Perspective of Political Communication” (F5-34 (3)/2008(HRP)) granted in the state and the one most loyal to the among its main challengers BJP-INLD. to Harish Kumar, Department of Journalism and Congress so far. The principal beneficiary Governance based on a development Mass Communications, Maharshi Dayanand Uni versity, Rohtak, Haryana by University Grants of the desertion of dalit voters from agenda and efficient delivery of public Commission, Delhi. We sincerely thank him for Congress was the BSP that posted a sig service can become a determining factor sharing the data with us. nificant swing of 35 percentage points in in Indian politics in beating anti-incum its favour. The BSP was able to mobilise bency and winning elections. The analysis References dalits in this election and emerge as the reveals that image management along Bartolini, S and Peter Mair (1990): Identity, Competi- second largest party in the state in terms with the perceived satisfaction of voters tion, and Electoral Availability: The Stabilisation of vote share along with INLD. The vote with the incumbent government can be an of European Electorates 1885-1985 (Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press), p 19. share of BSP increased phenomenally important factor in determining the elec Chhibber, P and Irfan Nooruddin (2008): “Unstable among the dalits from 21% in 2004 to toral outcome even in a state where there Politics – Fiscal Space and Electoral Volatility in the Indian States”, Comparative Political Studies, 56% in 2009. However among other caste is a multipolar contest and fragmentation Vol 41(8): 1069-91. communities, the vote share of BSP of opposition votes. The polarisation of Joshi, Dhananjai and Praveen Rai (2004): “Haryana: A Landslide Victory for Congress”, Economic & remained the same as it was during the dalit votes by the BSP has made it a formi Political Weekly, 18-24 December, Vol 39(51): 2004 general elections. dable force in the state and must caution 5445-48. for the Congress. Any further loss of dalit Heller, P (2005): “Fiscal Space – What It Is and How To Table 4: Congress Gains Jats and Lower OBC Get It”, Finance and Development, 42 (2): 32-33. Communities, Losses among Dalits (in %) votes by Congress and consolidation of Caste/Community-wise Swings for… Congress Vote Congress’ Gain/ BSP among this social community may be Share 2009 Loss since 2004 detrimental in shaping the future electoral Jats 42 +17 outcome in Haryana. Upper castes 35 - 5 Yadavs and gujjars 46 - 3 available at Lower OBC 54 +8 Notes Dalits 34 - 35 Modern Book Stall 1 Electoral volatility is defined as the “net electoral Source: National Election Study 2004 and 2009; Weighted data change between two consecutive elections” B-6, Janpath Market sets. All figures in per cent. (Bartolini and Mair 1990: 19). Aggregate levels of Hazrat Ganj electoral volatility, measured as the net change in The changing caste equation also vote shares for parties competing in the elections, Lucknow 226 001 ensured that the revival of the BJP-INLD are used as a convenient proxy for the cumulation Uttar Pradesh of individual vote shifts. alliance remained a non-starter. The vote 2 In the general elections held in 1984 there was no Ph: 2283802, 2207401 share of the alliance was 12 points lower pre-poll alliance between any parties in Haryana,
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