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ConsultEcon, Inc. Management & Economic Insight April 13, 2017 Paul Revere Heritage Site Feasibility Study and Business Plan FINAL REPORT Prepared by: ConsultEcon, Inc. Prepared for: Town of Canton April 2017 ConsultEcon, Inc. Management & Economic Insight April 13, 2017 TABLE OF CONTENTS Section Page TABLE OF CONTENTS i LIST OF TABLES ii LIST OF APPENDIX TABLES iv LIST OF FIGURES v LIST OF APPENDIX FIGURES vi EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1 Section I INTRODUCTION AND ASSUMPTIONS I-1 Section II PAUL REVERE HERITAGE LOCATION CONTEXT AND PROJECT OVERVIEW II-1 Section III MARKET CONTEXT III-1 Section IV GOVERNANCE AND MANAGEMENT OPTIONS IV-1 Section V VISITATION POTENTIAL AND PHYSICAL PLANNING PARAMETERS V-1 Section VI OPERATING POTENTIAL VI-1 APPENDIX A CASE STUDIES A-1 APPENDIX B FIVE-YEAR MID-RANGE VISITATION SCENARIO TABLES B-1 APPENDIX C ALTERNATIVE OPERATING SCENARIO C-1 Paul Revere Heritage Site i ConsultEcon, Inc. Management & Economic Insight April 13, 2017 LIST OF TABLES Table Page Table II-1 Proposed Housing Profile - Maximum Bedroom Count Plymouth Rubber Redevelopment II-8 Table II-2 Illustrative Pre-Design Program of Spaces for the Barn and the Rolling Mill Paul Revere Heritage Site Subject to Further Refinement - For Illustrative Purposes Only II-17 Table III-1 Population Trend in Resident Market Area – 2010, 2016, 2021 Paul Revere Heritage Site III-3 Table III-2 Age Profile in Resident Market Area – 2016 Paul Revere Heritage Site III-4 Table III-3 School Age Children in Resident Market Area – 2016 Paul Revere Heritage Site III-5 Table III-4 Household Profile in Resident Market Area – 2016 Paul Revere Heritage Site III-6 Table III-5 Income Profile in Resident Market Area – 2016 Paul Revere Heritage Site III-7 Table III-6 Hotel Inventory, Canton Area III-11 Table III-7 Massachusetts NPS Historical Sites III-14 Table III-8 Types of Event Venues in Canton Area III-23 Table V-1 Visitation Potential in a Stable Year of Operations Paul Revere Heritage Site V-6 Table V-2 Five-Year Facility Visitation Potential Paul Revere Heritage Site V-7 Table V-3 Estimated Monthly Visitation Distribution Paul Revere Heritage Site V-8 Table V-4 Facility Sizing Analysis based on Demand Parameters Paul Revere Heritage Site V-9 Table VI-1 Visitation by Type and Ticket Price and Membership Assumptions in a Mid-Range Visitation Scenario in a Stable Year in 2017 Dollars Museum and Cultural Center at PRHS VI-5 Paul Revere Heritage Site ii ConsultEcon, Inc. Management & Economic Insight April 13, 2017 LIST OF TABLES (continued) Table Page Table VI-2 Operating Assumptions in Current Dollars under a Mid-Range Scenario Museum and Cultural Center at PRHS VI-6 Table VI-3 Earned Revenue Potential Museum and Cultural Center at PRHS VI-12 Table VI-4 Illustrative Personnel Positions and Personnel Costs by Department Museum and Cultural Center at PRHS VI-15 Table VI-5 Operating Expense Estimates in a Stable Year in 2016 Value of the Dollar Under a Mid-Range Scenario Museum and Cultural Center at PRHS VI-19 Table VI-6 Summary of Revenues and Expenses in a Stable Year in 2016 Value of the Dollar Under a Mid-Range Scenario Museum and Cultural Center at PRHS VI-21 Table VI-7 5-Year Net Income Summary under a Mid-Range Scenario Museum and Cultural Center at PRHS VI-22 Paul Revere Heritage Site iii ConsultEcon, Inc. Management & Economic Insight April 13, 2017 LIST OF APPENDIX TABLES Table Page Table A-1 Metropolitan Waterworks Museum Boston, MA A-7 Table A-2 Dedham Historical Society Dedham, MA A-10 Table A-2 Dedham Historical Society Dedham, MA A-11 Table A-3 Eleanor Cabot Bradley Estate Canton, MA A-13 Table A-4 Park City Museum Park City, UT A-17 Table A-5 Museum of Durham History Durham, NC A-20 Table B-1 Five-Year Visitation by Type and Ticket Price and Membership Assumptions under a Mid-Range Visitation Scenario Museum and Cultural Center at the Paul Revere Heritage Site B-2 Table B-2 Five-Year Earned Revenue Potential under a Mid Range Visitation Scenario Museum and Cultural Center at the Paul Revere Heritage Site B-3 Table B-3 Five-Year Operating Expenses under a Mid-Range Visitation Scenario Museum and Cultural Center at the Paul Revere Heritage Site B-4 Table C-1 Summary of Revenues and Expenses Under a Mid-Range Visitation Scenario Museum and Cultural Center at the Paul Revere Heritage Site C-2 Table C-2 Pros and Cons of the Museum and Cultural Center Use in the Rolling Mill and in the Barn C-3 Table C-3 Pros and Cons of the Restaurant Use in the Rolling Mill and in the Barn C-4 Paul Revere Heritage Site iv ConsultEcon, Inc. Management & Economic Insight April 13, 2017 LIST OF FIGURES Figure Page Figure II-1 Paul Revere Heritage Site – Regional Context II-2 Figure II-2 Town of Canton and Surrounding Towns II-3 Figure II-3 Town of Canton Regional Highway Context II-4 Figure II-4 Paul Revere Heritage Site – Town of Canton Suburban Context II-6 Figure II-5 Satellite View of Plymouth Rubber Site, Location of PRHS and Canton Center II-7 Figure II-6 Site Plan for the Plymouth Rubber Property II-9 Figure II-7 Site Plan for PRHS II-10 Figure II-8 First Floor Plan for the Barn at the Plymouth Rubber Development Property (aka Paul Revere Heritage Site) II-11 Figure II-9 Second Floor Plan for the Barn at the Plymouth Rubber Development Property (aka Paul Revere Heritage Site) II-12 Figure II-10 Basement Floor Plan for the Barn at the Plymouth Rubber Development Property (aka Paul Revere Heritage Site) II-13 Figure II-11 First Floor Plan for the Rolling Mill at the Plymouth Rubber Development Property (aka Paul Revere Heritage Site) II-14 Figure II-12 Second Floor Plan for the Rolling Mill at the Plymouth Rubber Development Property (aka Paul Revere Heritage Site) II-15 Figure III-1 Map of Resident Market Area – 10-, 20-, and 30-Minute Drive Times Paul Revere Heritage Site III-2 Figure III-2 Visitor Origin of Domestic Visitors to Boston, 2013 III-8 Figure III-3 Seasonality of Boston Hotel Occupancy January 2015 – October 2016 III-9 Figure III-4 Hotel Inventory, Canton Area III-12 Figure III-5 Restaurants in Canton III-21 Figure III-6 Restaurants in South Canton III-22 Paul Revere Heritage Site v ConsultEcon, Inc. Management & Economic Insight April 13, 2017 LIST OF APPENDIX FIGURES Figure Page Figure A-1 American Museum of Tort Law Winsted, CT A-2 Figure A-2 Charles River Museum of Industry & Innovation Waltham, MA A-2 Figure A-3 Edison and Ford Winter Estates Fort Myers, FL A-3 Figure A-4 Eli Whitney Museum and Workshop Hamden, CT A-4 Figure A-5 Garst Museum and National Annie Oakley Center Greenville, OH A-4 Figure A-6 Highfield Hall & Gardens Falmouth, MA A-5 Figure A-7 Slater Mill Pawtucket, RI A-6 Figure A-8 Metropolitan Waterworks Museum Boston, MA A-8 Figure A-9 Metropolitan Waterworks Museum Interior Boston, MA A-9 Figure A-10 Dedham Historical Society Dedham, MA A-11 Figure A-11 Dedham Historical Society, Program Attendees Dedham, MA A-12 Figure A-12 Eleanor Cabot Bradley Estate – Front of House Canton, MA A-15 Figure A-13 Eleanor Cabot Bradley Estate – Wedding Canton, MA A-15 Figure A-14 Eleanor Cabot Bradley Estate – Interior Canton, MA A-16 Figure A-15 Park City Museum Park City, UT A-18 Figure A-16 Park City Museum – Skier Subway Theater Exhibit Park City, UT A-19 Figure A-17 Park City Museum – Mega Mine and Days of Ore Exhibits Park City, UT A-19 Figure A-18 Museum of Durham History – Exterior Durham, NC A-22 Figure A-19 Museum of Durham History – Visitors to Museum Durham, NC A-22 Paul Revere Heritage Site vi ConsultEcon, Inc. Management & Economic Insight April 13, 2017 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ConsultEcon, Inc. was retained by the Town of Canton to evaluate the feasibility of and prepare business and operating plans for the Paul Revere Heritage Site (PRHS). This report evaluates the project’s potential market support, the proposed programming, and financial analysis for the reuse and operation of existing buildings on PRHS as a museum and community art center and a destination restaurant. It also lays out options for governance and management structures and their implications for the operations of the Town, the proposed museum and community art center, and restaurant on the PRHS. Location and Context The PRHS is in Canton, Massachusetts a suburb of Boston located in Norfolk County, about 20 miles south of Boston and 30 miles north of Providence, Rhode Island. Canton’s location is characterized in part by is highway accessibility as well as its being served by two train stations on the MBTA commuter rail’s Providence/Stoughton Line. PRHS is a segment of a larger project called the Plymouth Rubber Redevelopment. The Plymouth Rubber Redevelopment will include both new-build structures and existing structures that can be leveraged for the interpretation of the site’s history. The historic structures and public open space will make up the PRHS portion of the project. The site’s accessibility and unique existing structures are favorable for the proposed historic interpretation and programming. Project Concept for PRHS Building Use The PRHS will be a heritage attraction, appealing to area residents as well as visitors to Canton, encompassing new public open space, a Town Green for large scale community events, an event lawn for smaller outdoor gatherings, and recreational and interpretive walking trails.
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