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20Th Century Minimum and Maximum Temperature Variations Analysed on a Regional Scale in Switzerland

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20Th Century Minimum and Maximum Temperature Variations Analysed on a Regional Scale in Switzerland Aus dem Institut für Geographie Universität Freiburg (Schweiz) 20th century minimum and maximum temperature variations analysed on a regional scale in Switzerland Statistical analyses of observational data INAUGURAL – DISSERTATION Zur Erlangung der Würde eines Doctor rerum naturalium der Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Universität Freiburg in der Schweiz vorgelegt von Patricia Jungo aus (Heimatort): Düdingen und Fribourg Dissertation Nr. 1365 – Mécanographie Universität Freiburg Oktober 2001 Die vorliegende Arbeit wurde von der Mathematisch–Naturwissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Universität Fribourg in der Schweiz im Dezember 2001 aufgrund der Gutachten von Prof. Martin Beniston, Prof. Claude Collet, Dr. Christoph Frei und Prof. Heinz Wanner angenommen. The present work was accepted as dissertation by the Faculty of Mathematics and Science of the University of Fribourg in Switzerland in December 2001 based on the experts’ reports of Prof. Martin Beniston, Prof. Claude Collet, Dr. Christoph Frei and Prof. Heinz Wanner. Fribourg, 21. Dezember 2001 Der Leiter der Doktorarbeit: Der Dekan: Prof. Martin Beniston Prof. Alexander von Zelewsky Adresse der Autorin (Authors address): Dr. Patricia Jungo Bundesamt für Statistik place de l’Europe 10 2010 Neuchâtel E-mail: [email protected] Zitierung (Citation): Jungo P., 2001: 20th century minimum and maximum temperature variations analysed on a regional scale in Switzerland – statistical analyses on observational data. Ph.D. Thesis No. 1365, University of Fribourg, Switzerland. 221 pp. Zu beziehen bei der Autorin (Available from the author) Abstract: The principal aim of this study is to establish a regional and seasonal assessment of the secular trend and the decadal-scale variability in the 20th century minimum and maximum temperature warming. Through the principal achievements of this study I could provide a better understanding of regional climate trends in Switzerland, which is essential in order to assess the relation between climate change, natural hazards and the resulting potential risk for certain areas of this country. Patricia Jungo: Regional scale 20th century Tmin and Tmax variations Contents CONTENTS SUMMARY……………………………………………………………………………………. 1 ZUSAMMENFASSUNG .……………………………………………………………………. 5 1. INTRODUCTION..…………………………………………………………………………. 9 1.1. GENERAL ASPECTS AND LARGE TO GLOBAL-SCALE BACKGROUND………………….. 9 1.2. PRINCIPAL OBJECTIVES OF THIS THESIS………………………………………………. 13 1.3. CONTEXTUAL INFORMATION…………………………………………………………… 18 1.3.1. Observed temperature fluctuations in the recent past and the present at different scales and various mountain regions……………………………………… 18 a.) Mean temperature variations at the hemispheric scale……………………... 18 b.) Mean temperature variations on the European scale……………………….. 18 c.) Mean temperature variations in mountain regions…………………………… 19 d.) Mean temperature variations in Alpine countries……………………………. 19 e.) Tmin and Tmax variations……………………………………………………… 21 1.3.2. Switzerland………………………………………………………………………. 21 a.) Geographical situation………………………………………………………….. 21 b.) Importance of regional studies………………………………………………… 22 c.) Sensitivity of mountain regions………………………………………………... 23 1.3.3. Changing temperature and environmental impacts………………………… 24 2. SOURCE DATA……………………………………………………………………………. 27 2.1 GENERAL DESCRIPTION OF THE DATA NETWORK……………………………………… 27 2.2. QUALITY AND HOMOGENEITY OF THE DATA SETS…………………………………….. 29 2.3. METHODOLOGICAL PROCEEDING LINKED TO THE NUMBER OF DATA TIME SERIES….. 31 3. CLIMATOLOGICAL REGIONALISATION………………………………………………. 33 3.1 CHAPTER OUTLINE……………………………………………………………………… 34 3.2. DATA PREPARATION…………………………………………………………………… 36 3.3. STATISTICAL METHODS………………………………………………………………… 37 3.3.1 Principal Component Analysis (PCA)…………………………………………. 37 3.3.2. Cluster Analysis (CA)…………………………………………………………… 40 3.3.3. Tests……………………………………………………………………………… 41 Patricia Jungo: Regional scale 20th century Tmin and Tmax variations Contents 3.4. RESULTS……………………………………………………………………………….. 42 3.4.1. Establishing clusters in winter………………………………………………… 42 a.) PCA on winter Tmin…………………………………………………………….. 42 b.) CA on winter Tmin………………………………………………………………. 43 c.) PCA on winter Tmax……………………………………………………………. 45 d.) CA on winter Tmax……………………………………………………………… 46 3.4.5. Establishing clusters in spring…………………………………………………. 48 a.) PCA on spring Tmin…………………………………………………………….. 48 b.) CA on spring Tmin……………………………………………………………… 49 c.) PCA on spring Tmax…………………………………………………………… 50 d.) CA on spring Tmax……………………………………………………………… 50 3.4.3. Establishing clusters in summer………………………………………………. 53 a.) PCA on summer Tmin………………………………………………………….. 53 b.) CA on summer Tmin……………………………………………………………. 54 c.) PCA on summer Tmax…………………………………………………………. 56 d.) CA on summer Tmax…………………………………………………………… 57 3.4.4. Establishing clusters in autumn……………………………………………….. 58 a.) PCA on autumn Tmin…………………………………………………………… 58 b.) CA on autumn Tmin…………………………………………………………….. 59 c.) PCA on autumn Tmax………………………………………………………….. 61 d.) CA on autumn Tmax……………………………………………………………. 62 3.5. REPRESENTATIVE STATIONS PER CLUSTER………………………………………….. 63 3.6. DISCUSSION……………………………………………………………………………. 63 4. SECULAR TRENDS AND INTERANNUAL TO DECADAL SCALE FLUCTUATIONS IN REGIONAL MEAN TIME SERIES…………………………………………………………… 69 4.1 CHAPTER OUTLINE ……………………………………………………………………… 69 4.2 PRELIMINARY ANALYSES………………………………………………………………... 70 4.2.1. Computation of the regional mean time series………………………………. 70 4.2.2. Limitation of the result description…………………………………………….. 71 4.3. PAPER BY JUNGO AND BENISTON (2001)…………………………………………….. 72 CHANGES IN THE ANOMALIES OF EXTREME TEMPERATURES IN THE 20TH CENTURY AT SWISS CLIMATOLOGICAL STATIONS LOCATED AT DIFFERENT LATITUDES AND ALTITUDES………. 72 Summary………………………………………………………………………………... 73 1. Introduction…………………………………………………………………………... 73 Patricia Jungo: Regional scale 20th century Tmin and Tmax variations Contents 2. Data…………………………………………………………………………………… 75 2.1. Quality…………………………………………………………………………… 75 2.2. Treatment……………………………………………………………………….. 76 3. Methods………………………………………………………………………………. 78 4. Results………………………………………………………………………………... 79 4.1. Winter……………………………………………………………………………. 80 4.1.1. Linear regression over three time spans…………………………………………. 80 4.1.2. Anomaly fluctuations……………………………………………………………….. 81 4.1.3. 9 Periods…………………………………………………………………………….. 82 4.2 Spring, summer, autumn………………………………………………………. 85 5. Discussion……………………………………………………………………………. 87 6. Conclusion……………………………………………………………………………. 88 4.4. COMPARISON WITH EXISTING TEMPERATURE TREND STUDIES IN ALPINE COUNTRIES…………………………………………………………………………………... 90 5. VARIATIONS IN TEMPERATURE EXTREMES……………………………………….. 93 5.1. CHAPTER OUTLINE……………………………………………………………………... 93 5.2. METHODS………………………………………………………………………………. 96 5.3. RESULTS……………………………………………………………………………….. 97 5.3.1. Winter…………………………………………………………………………….. 97 5.3.2. Spring…………………………………………………………………………….. 99 5.3.3. Summer………………………………………………………………………….. 101 5.3.4. Autumn…………………………………………………………………………… 104 5.4. DISCUSSION……………………………………………………………………………. 105 6. LINKS BETWEEN TMIN/TMAX, THE NAOI AND ALPINE WEATHER TYPES……. 109 6.1. PAPER BY BENISTON AND JUNGO (2001)…………………………………………….. 109 SHIFTS IN THE DISTRIBUTIONS OF PRESSURE, TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE AND CHANGES IN THE TYPICAL WEATHER PATTERNS IN THE ALPINE REGION IN RESPONSE TO THE BEHAVIOR OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION……………………………………………………. 109 Abstract………………………………………………………………………………….. 109 1. Introduction…………………………………………………………………………… 110 2. The influence of the NAO on Alpine climate……………………………………… 112 2.1 Influence on means…………………………………………………………….. 112 2.2 The influence on the probability density functions of climate variables…… 114 Patricia Jungo: Regional scale 20th century Tmin and Tmax variations Contents 2.3 The influence on climatological weather types over the alpine region……. 120 3. Discussion……………………………………………………………………………. 126 4. Conclusions…………………………………………………………………………... 130 6.2. DISCUSSION INCLUDING WEATHER TYPES IN SPRING, SUMMER AND AUTUMN………. 132 7. ADDITIONAL APPLICATION OF THE REGIONALISATION METHODS (PCA AND CA) ON WIND GUST DATA………………………………………………………………………. 137 7.1. PAPER BY JUNGO, GOYETTE AND BENISTON (2001)………………………………… 137 DAILY WIND GUST SPEED PROBABILITIES OVER SWITZERLAND ACCORDING TO THREE TYPES OF SYNOPTIC CIRCULATION…………………………………………………………………. 137 Abstract………………………………………………………………………………….. 137 1. Introduction…………………………………………………………………………… 138 2. Data…………………………………………………………………………………… 143 3. Methods………………………………………………………………………………. 143 3.1 Wind gust probability…………………………………………………………… 144 3.2 Synoptic weather types………………………………………………………… 145 3.3 Classification of Swiss climatological stations………………………………. 146 4. Results………………………………………………………………………………... 147 5. Example and Discussion…………………………………………………………… 155 6. Conclusion…………………………………………………………………………… 160 8. SYNTHESIS………………………………………………………………………………… 163 REFERENCES………………………………………………………………………………… 169 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS……………………………………………………………………. 177 APPENDIX A…………………………………………………………………………………... 179 APPENDIX B…………………………………………………………………………………... 207 APPENDIX C………………………………………………………………………………….. 221 APPENDIX D………………………………………………………………………………….. 231 Curriculum Vitae……………………………………………………………………………… 235 Patricia Jungo: Regional scale 20th century Tmin and Tmax variations Summary SUMMARY The major aim of this study is to describe in a detailed manner the 20th century minimum and maximum temperature variations in Switzerland and to assess whether the magnitude of the secular warming and its interannual to interdecadal
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