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The Mercantile Investment Trust Plc

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The Mercantile Investment Trust Plc HALF IMAGE PLACEMENT HOLDER (HORIZONTAL) Resize image to cover grey box The Mercantile Investment Trust plc September 2020 Guy Anderson, Portfolio Manager Image source: J.P.Morgan. FOR PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS ONLY – NOT FOR RETAIL USE OR DISTRIBUTION Agenda Portfolio strategy Outlook and positioning Summary 1 | FOR PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS ONLY – NOT FOR RETAIL USE OR DISTRIBUTION Portfolio strategy 2 | FOR PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS ONLY – NOT FOR RETAIL USE OR DISTRIBUTION Overview of portfolio strategy Mercantile: a pure-play* solution to UK mid and small cap investing A diversified portfolio of mid and small cap companies with strong long-term relative performance The Mercantile Investment Trust plc Annualised return (net of fees) vs benchmark Team of 6 covering UK SMID^ 10% Mercantile Benchmark Specialist 14 years average industry experience Team 5.1 350+ management meetings per annum 5% 1.9 1.0 0% Large and Portfolio size** £1.8bn Liquid Liquidity** ADV ~£3m -3.5 -3.0 -5% -10% -9.0 Low cost Ongoing charges** 0.44% 1 year 3 years (p.a.) 5 years (p.a.) Excess +6.1 +4.1 +3.1 return (%) Source: (LHS) J.P. Morgan Asset Management; ADV = average daily volume (last 12 months), from Bloomberg; Ongoing charges reflect FY19 charges. Data as at 31 August 2020. Performance data using net asset value per share, cum income, with debt at par value in GBP. Geometric excess returns. Please note Benchmark Indices do not include fees or operating expenses and are not available for actual investment. Benchmark is the FTSE All-Share (ex FTSE 100, ex Investment Companies) Index. The benchmark is for comparative purposes only. * Pure play refers to the fact that this vehicle provides investors with access to both mid and small cap in one vehicle. ^Small and medium sized firms. ** As of 31 July 2020. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current and future results. 3 | FOR PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS ONLY – NOT FOR RETAIL USE OR DISTRIBUTION Overview of portfolio strategy Long term performance A track record of outperformance Cumulative returns – August 2012 to August 2020 340 NAV Share Price FTSE All Share ex 100 ex IT FTSE 100 290 +145% 240 +123% 190 +85% 140 +42% 90 Aug 12 May 13 Feb 14 Nov 14 Aug 15 May 16 Feb 17 Nov 17 Aug 18 May 19 Feb 20 … 10.5% NAV CAGR* over 8 years Source:J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Rebased to 100 at 31 August 2012. Performance data has been using net asset value per share, cum income, with debt at par value in GBP. Please note Benchmark Indices do not include fees or operating expenses and are not available for actual investment. *Compound annual growth rate. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current and future results. 4 | FOR PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS ONLY – NOT FOR RETAIL USE OR DISTRIBUTION Outlook and positioning 5 | FOR PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS ONLY – NOT FOR RETAIL USE OR DISTRIBUTION Outlook and positioning Economic outlook: pandemic woes visible to all UK GDP growth forecasts for 2020 at historic lows 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% IMF, -10.2% -10% NIESR, -10.1% OBR, -12.4% -15% 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 Sources: Panmure Gordon, data as of 3rd September 2020 Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current and future performance. 6 | FOR PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS ONLY – NOT FOR RETAIL USE OR DISTRIBUTION Outlook and positioning UK equity valuations reflect this uncertainty The UK looks cheap when compared with other markets 10-year cyclically-adjusted P/E ratio 50 40 30 29.0 20 13.0 10 10.3 0 2000 2010 2020 US 10Y CAPE UK 10Y CAPE EZ 10Y CAPE Source: Panmure Gordon Research. Data as at 2nd September 2020. CAPE is the cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio. EZ=Euro Zone. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current and future results. 7 | FOR PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS ONLY – NOT FOR RETAIL USE OR DISTRIBUTION Outlook and positioning Healthy recovery seen in pockets of the economy UK retail sales volume ex. auto fuel UK Purchasing Managers Index 115 70 110 60 105 50 100 40 95 Manufacturing PMI 30 90 Services PMI 20 85 80 10 2010 2013 2016 2019 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 Sources: left chart: ONS, with data from September 2010 to July 2020; right chart: Bloomberg, data from January 2005 to August 2020. 8 | FOR PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS ONLY – NOT FOR RETAIL USE OR DISTRIBUTION Outlook and positioning However, elements of weakness and uncertainty persist UK GfK consumer confidence BOE investment intentions 8 4 0 2 -8 0 -16 -2 -24 -4 -32 -40 -6 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 Sources: left chart: GfK, with data from July 2005 to July 2020; right chart: Bank of England, with data from July 2005 to July 2020, data prior to Q4 of 2017 has been constructed by the Bank of England by weighting together the discontinued manufacturing and services series by their shares of GVA, turnover, employment or investment. 9 | FOR PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS ONLY – NOT FOR RETAIL USE OR DISTRIBUTION Outlook and positioning Stock selection and sectoral positioning reflect dynamic environment Active and absolute sector positions as of 31 July 2020 Benchmark FTSE All-Share ex 100 ex IT Relative to benchmark (%) Computacenter 10 Softcat 8.0 Dunelm 8 Bellway Team17 Premier B&M Countryside Foods 6 Properties Games 4.4 Workshop Greencore 3.9 4 2.9 2.6 2 0 -2 -2.4 -2.5 -2.5 -2.7 -2.8 -4 Software & General Retailers Household Goods & Leisure Goods Food Producers Real Estate Pharmaceuticals & Health Care Real Estate Travel & Leisure Computer Services Home Construction Investment Trusts Biotechnology Equipment & Investment & Services Services Portfolio Weight (%) 10.58 10.59 7.14 4.03 5.50 8.95 0.45 0.00 0.00 4.37 Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management, Factset. The investment trust is actively managed. Holdings, sector weights, allocations and leverage, as applicable, are subject to change at the discretion of the Investment Manager without notice. 10 | FOR PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS ONLY – NOT FOR RETAIL USE OR DISTRIBUTION Outlook and positioning Portfolio positions Stock positioning as of 31 July 2020 Benchmark FTSE All-Share ex 100 ex IT Top 10 overweight positions Top 10 underweight positions Portfolio Benchmark Relative Portfolio Benchmark Relative Stock Stock weight (%) weight (%) position (%) weight (%) weight (%) position (%) Intermediate Capital Grp 3.3 0.0 3.3 Direct Line Insurance Grp 0.0 1.6 -1.6 Polymetal International 3.1 0.0 3.1 ConvaTec Group 0.0 1.3 -1.3 Softcat 3.5 0.6 2.8 Weir Group 0.0 1.2 -1.2 Computacenter 3.2 0.5 2.6 Spectris 0.0 1.2 -1.2 Bellway 3.8 1.2 2.6 Dechra Pharmaceuticals 0.0 1.1 -1.1 Spirax-Sarco Engineering 2.5 0.0 2.5 Centrica 0.0 1.1 -1.1 Avast 2.4 0.0 2.4 IMI 0.0 1.1 -1.1 Games Workshop Group 3.4 1.1 2.2 Quilter 0.0 1.0 -1.0 Dunelm Group 2.6 0.5 2.1 IG Group Holdings 0.0 1.0 -1.0 National Express Group 2.0 0.2 1.8 Hiscox 0.0 1.0 -1.0 Total 29.6 4.2 25.4 Total 0.0 11.6 -11.6 Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management, Factset. The investment trust is actively managed. Holdings, sector weights, allocations and leverage, as applicable, are subject to change at the discretion of the Investment Manager without notice. 11 | FOR PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS ONLY – NOT FOR RETAIL USE OR DISTRIBUTION Outlook and positioning Gearing remains at an elevated level The Mercantile Investment Trust plc as of 31 August 2020 Historic gearing levels vs benchmark Gearing level Index level 20% Month end gearing levels - LHS FTSE All Share ex 100 ex IT (total return index) - RHS 9000 8000 15% 7000 10% 6000 5000 5% 4000 0% 3000 2000 -5% 1000 -10% 0 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19 Jul-19 Jan-20 Jul-20 Source: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. As at 31 August 2020 (weightings exclude cash/cash equivalents). Investment trusts may utilise gearing which will exaggerate market movements both down and up which could mean sudden and large falls in value. For further details, please refer to the trust’s annual report and accounts. Gearing is the ability to borrow money to invest that money on behalf of the shareholders. 12 | FOR PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS ONLY – NOT FOR RETAIL USE OR DISTRIBUTION Summary 13 | FOR PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS ONLY – NOT FOR RETAIL USE OR DISTRIBUTION Summary Summary Near-term outlook highly uncertain but reflected by depressed market valuations Disciplined investment process, with portfolio positioned to navigate macro uncertainty Strong long-term investment performance versus benchmark and peers The Mercantile Investment Trust plc provides a pure-play solution to UK mid and small cap investing 14 | FOR PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS ONLY – NOT FOR RETAIL USE OR DISTRIBUTION Appendix 15 | FOR PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS ONLY – NOT FOR RETAIL USE OR DISTRIBUTION Appendix Opportunities for extraordinary growth Nimble business models Innovators or disruptors Rapidly growing new markets WH Smith Softcat Countryside Properties Image source: Shutterstock. The securities above are shown for illustrative purposes only. Their inclusion should not be interpreted as a recommendation to buy or sell. 16 | FOR PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS ONLY – NOT FOR RETAIL USE OR DISTRIBUTION Appendix A strong track record of income generation Dividend policy smoothing income return 9 Pence per share 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Dividend Special dividend Earnings per share Net revenue reserves … 8.4% dividend per share CAGR over 29 years Source: J.P.
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