Morning Wrap Today ’s Newsflow Equity Research 16 Nov 2020 08:34 GMT Upcoming Events Select headline to navigate to article Kingspan FY20 to be a year of profit growth Company Events 16-Nov Kainos Group; Q221 Results Irish Banks EU banks should focus on cost cutting and Kingspan; Q320 Trading Update need a more discerning regulator 17-Nov easyJet; FY20 Results 18-Nov Breedon Group; Q320 Trading Update UK Housebuilders Rightmove asking prices fall 0.5% in British Land Company; Half Year Results 2021 Origin Enterprises; Q121 Trading Update November SSP Group; Full year results Supermarket Income REIT Accretive acquisitions add to 20-Nov Mitchells & Butlers; Full year results 23-Nov Codemasters Group; Q221 Results occupier mix Hibernia REIT Preview ahead of Tuesday’s HY21 Results Economic Events Ireland United Kingdom United States Europe This document is intended for the sole use of Goodbody Investment Banking and its affiliates Goodbody Capital Markets Equity Research +353 1 6419221 Equity Sales +353 1 6670222 Bloomberg GDSE<GO> Goodbody Stockbrokers UC, trading as “Goodbody”, is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland. In the UK, Goodbody is authorised and subject to limited regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority. Goodbody is a member of Euronext Dublin and the London Stock Exchange. Goodbody is a member of the FEXCO group of companies. For the attention of US clients of Goodbody Securities Inc, this third-party research report has been produced by our affiliate, Goodbody Stockbrokers Goodbody Morning Wrap Kingspan FY20 to be a year of profit growth Kingspan has released a trading update for Q320. Group lfl sales were -6% in Q320 (+1% on Recommendation: Buy a reported basis) compared to -19% in Q220 and -7% in Q120. Order backlogs in Insulated Closing Price: €79.75 Panels have improved to +10% yoy compared to broadly flat in August. Management notes that overall end markets are in “reasonable shape”. Trading in the fourth quarter today is David O'Brien +353-1-641 9230 “strong” somewhat aided by accelerated demand ahead of anticipated price increases. david.a.o'[email protected] Against this backdrop management has guided for trading profit to be marginally ahead yoy for FY20, implying a stellar performance in H220 (trading profit +13% yoy vs -13% in H120) as the group navigates challenging macro conditions. On first glance we will be upgrading our FY20 trading profit forecast by 12% to €502m and 7% for FY21 (€528m). The performance of Kingspan in FY20 once more highlights why the stocks warrants a premium rating within the building materials sector. The key highlights are:(i) Insulated Panels experienced a 7% lfl sales decline in Q320 which compares to a 12% decline in H120 (-8% in Q120). Overall Panel backlog is +10% yoy compared to broadly flat in August with France, Germany and Latam performing well while the UK is relatively softer albeit improving; (ii) Insulation Board sales declined by 5% on a lfl basis Q320 improving on the -18% in H120 (-8% in Q120). Volumes improved in Q3 with raw material price deflation in the early part of the period offsetting this; (iii) Light & Air saw lfl sales down 8% yoy compared to -5% in H120 (+1% in Q120) with a solid performance in Europe offset by a more sluggish backdrop in the US; (iv) Cash generation has remained strong with net debt coming in at €313m which compares to €438m at the H120 end. Kingspan management is guiding for FY20 trading profit to be marginally ahead yoy. This implies an 12% upgrade to our trading profit forecasts (7-8% for consensus). This implies that trading profit will increase by 13% yoy in H220 on the back of a 2% lfl sales decline with operating margins up by over 100bps yoy. This compares to a 13% decrease in H120 trading profit and an 60bps decline in operating margin. Such a performance highlights Kingspan’s ability to adapt the business in all market conditions and makes them one of the few building materials companies to grow profits yoy for the year as a whole. Home… This document is intended for the sole use of Goodbody Investment Banking and its affiliates Page 2 16 Nov. 20 Goodbody Morning Wrap Irish Banks EU banks should focus on cost cutting and need a more discerning regulator There is an interesting opinion piece in the FT on European banking from the head of Copper Eamonn Hughes Street Capital. In a nutshell, the author is arguing that calls for pan-European M&A to solve +353-1-641 9442 many of the sectors ills are misplaced, that Europe needs a stronger resolution authority [email protected] (excluding national governments in the wind-up process) to remove undercapitalised, Barry Egan unprofitable institutions. Revenue headwinds are here to stay for a while, so radical cost- +353-1-641 6059 cutting is the key. Some domestic M&A to reduce fragmentation and eliminate sub-scale [email protected] players that can’t make the required technology investments would also help. But regulators have an important role to play to pressure weaker players to have a plan for sustainability or face resolution, but that blanket application of rules, like dividend bans, is punishing the good and protecting the weak, stifling progress. Differentiation will create a smaller number of healthier, more profitable institutions better able to invest and adapt to the new digital future. All very sensible an arguably reiterates many of the issues already hotly debated by many observers of the sector. However, it is nonetheless well timed as the ECB reconsiders its dividend ban on European banks in the next few weeks. Clearly, it has three options, leave it in place, remove the blanket ban, or alternatively, start to differentiate between the strong and the weak and obviously the latter would be a step in the right direction. Elsewhere, cost cutting is indeed necessary and as we have noted extensively since the summer, the c.15% reduction in medium term revenues for the Irish banks post Covid has accelerated the need for the banks to tackle costs. Our expectation is that AIB will need to consider moving its c.€1.5bn cost base down to c.€1.3bn, with BOI moving from <€1.65bn down to c.€1.5bn, with AIB likely to update the market in the next few weeks on its plan (as flagged in its Q3 IMS). That will support getting ROTEs back up in to the mid-hi single digit range on what are actually very strong capital bases at 13.7-16.1%. Even the ongoing speculation around Ulster Bank’s future highlights the dilemma for the parent from low returns though also with far too much capital tied up (28.5% CET1 ratio). Plus, it is also worth highlighting that the main Irish banks have taken impairments relating to Covid using loss models that incorporate a shocking loss history from GFC. As a proxy, H1 impairments were 42% of the 2018 EBA stress test adverse (3-year) scenario for AIB and 30% for BOI vs just 21% for EU peers, providing a bit more comfort around those capital positions. We don’t see dividends from the Irish banks from FY20 earnings - they both incur large losses in FY20 - but distributions could be back on the cards as they more through 2021. Home… This document is intended for the sole use of Goodbody Investment Banking and its affiliates Page 3 16 Nov. 20 Goodbody Morning Wrap UK Housebuilders Rightmove asking prices fall 0.5% in November Rightmove has published its November house price index this morning. Asking prices Shane Carberry declined slightly in November as prices fell by -0.5% from October when they increased by +353-1-6419118 the most in four years. The year on year rate of increase now stands at +6.3% up from [email protected] +5.5% in October. Given the recent comments about a mini-boom, Rightmove’s comments Dudley Shanley about there still being some legs left in the upwards march of prices and continued strong +353-1-641 9174 demand from buyers, the decline in November is a surprise. [email protected] Rightmove pointed to a rush of sellers bringing properties to the market at realistic prices in David O’Brien +353-1-641 9230 a bid to meet the Stamp Duty holiday deadline in March 2021. The strongest increased in david.a.o’[email protected] activity was in more expensive properties where the Stamp Duty savings are largest. Robert Eason On a medium-term view, we continue to believe that once furloughing schemes +353-1-641 9271 unwind and true levels of unemployment are realised, house prices will begin to [email protected] fall. However for now, pricing in the UK housing remains buoyant supported by supply/demand dynamics and government support. Home… This document is intended for the sole use of Goodbody Investment Banking and its affiliates Page 4 16 Nov. 20 Goodbody Morning Wrap Supermarket Income REIT Accretive acquisitions add to occupier mix SUPR has announced that it has acquired two supermarkets plus an online fulfilment centre Recommendation: Buy and sundry retail units in a £63.4m net (~£68.3m gross) transaction from British Land. The Closing Price: £1.05 assets are in Beaumont Leys, Leicester. The transaction reflects a combined net initial yield Colm Lauder of 6.4%. This asset is likely to add £4.4m to SUPR’s annualised rent roll. +353-1-641 6042 [email protected] The supermarket operators include Tesco Extra (the main tenant) along with Aldi.