— gk strategy insights A view from the nations

Scotland: Does Sturgeon want a referendum?

To the surprise of no-one, the SNP is set to But the leadership’s stance towards plan comprehensively win the Scottish election. B is decidedly ambiguous. First Minister Nor is it surprising that there’s a pro- Nicola Sturgeon and her allies have independence majority in Holyrood. This publicly demurred on the desirability of a has in fact been the case since 2011. wildcat Catalan-style plebiscite. What happens next is also predictable: a request for a Section 30 order, which – if Here the unpredictability comes in. we assume Prime Minister Boris Johnson Sturgeon – a naturally cautious politician sticks to his guns – will be rejected by the – wants to do things by the book. Blocked UK Government. by Westminster (and even the Supreme Court), it is possible that she may prefer The SNP says in this scenario, its plan to keep advocating for independence in B is to legislate to hold a referendum the abstract “future”, rather than confront anyway – an echo of what the Catalonian complex questions about currency and Government did in the face of the Spanish borders. Government’s veto.

Wales: Red-Green rising

COVID-19 has heightened the media The prospect of a Labour-Plaid Cymru attention given to Welsh politics, yet much deal of some sort, a repeat of the 2007 of the past month has still been devoted to election outcome, could help shake debating voter psephology in Hartlepool up Welsh politics – especially with the and Scotland. emergence of new voting demographics based around constitutional preferences. In a way, the lack of fanfare that has Polls have found more than half of all accompanied Labour’s success is Labour supporters in favour of Welsh testament to how their preponderance is independence, while the party’s leadership almost taken as a given. After all, this will is markedly more agnostic about the be its sixth Senedd election win in a row. survival of the UK than before.

The party is helped by how Wales’ While the new government will not be opposition is split more or less evenly agitating for independence, expect it to between a staunchly unionist party, the pursue an increasingly robust approach Conservatives, and a staunchly pro- towards its Westminster counterpart. independence one, Plaid – quashing any chance of an anti-Labour pact.

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