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Science, Assessments and Data Availability Related to Anticipated Science, Assessments and Data Availability Related to Anticipated Climate and Hydrologic Changes in Inland Freshwaters of the Prairies Region (Lake Winnipeg Drainage Basin) David J. Sauchyn and Jeannine-Marie St. Jacques Fisheries and Oceans Canada Freshwater Institute 501 University Crescent Winnipeg, MB, R3T 2N6 2016 Canadian Manuscript Report of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 3107 i Canadian Manuscript Report of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences Manuscript reports contain scientific and technical information that contributes to existing knowledge but which deals with national or regional problems. Distribution is restricted to institutions or individuals located in particular regions of Canada. However, no restriction is placed on subject matter, and the series reflects the broad interests and policies of Fisheries and Oceans Canada, namely, fisheries and aquatic sciences. Manuscript reports may be cited as full publications. The correct citation appears above the abstract of each report. Each report is abstracted in the data base Aquatic Sciences and Fisheries Abstracts. Manuscript reports are produced regionally but are numbered nationally. Requests for individual reports will be filled by the issuing establishment listed on the front cover and title page. Numbers 1-900 in this series were issued as Manuscript Reports (Biological Series) of the Biological Board of Canada, and subsequent to 1937 when the name of the Board was changed by Act of Parliament, as Manuscript Reports (Biological Series) of the Fisheries Research Board of Canada. Numbers 1426 - 1550 were issued as Department of Fisheries and Environment, Fisheries and Marine Service Manuscript Reports. The current series name was changed with report number 1551. Rapport manuscrit canadien des sciences halieutiques et aquatiques Les rapports manuscrits contiennent des renseignements scientifiques et techniques qui constituent une contribution aux connaissances actuelles, mais qui traitent de problèmes nationaux ou régionaux. La distribution en est limitée aux organismes et aux personnes de régions particulières du Canada. II n'y a aucune restriction quant au sujet; de fait, la série reflète la vaste gamme des intérêts et des politiques de Pêches et Océans Canada, c'est-à-dire les sciences halieutiques et aquatiques. Les rapports manuscrits peuvent être cités comme des publications à part entière. Le titre exact figure au-dessus du résumé de chaque rapport. Les rapports manuscrits sont résumés dans la base de données Résumés des sciences aquatiques et halieutiques. Les rapports manuscrits sont produits à l'échelon régional, mais numérotés à l'échelon national. Les demandes de rapports seront satisfaites par l'établissement auteur dont le nom figure sur la couverture et la page du titre. Les numéros 1 à 900 de cette série ont été publiés à titre de Manuscrits (série biologique) de l'Office de biologie du Canada, et après le changement de la désignation de cet organisme par décret du Parlement, en 1937, ont été classés comme Manuscrits (série biologique) de l'Office des recherches sur les pêcheries du Canada. Les numéros 901 à 1425 ont été publiés à titre de Rapports manuscrits de l'Office des recherches sur les pêcheries du Canada. Les numéros 1426 à 1550 sont parus à titre de Rapports manuscrits du Service des pêches et de la mer, ministère des Pêches et de l'Environnement. Le nom actuel de la série a été établi lors de la parution du numéro 1551. Canadian Manuscript Report of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 3107 2016 Science, Assessments and Data Availability Related to Anticipated Climate and Hydrologic Changes in Inland Freshwaters of the Prairies Region (Lake Winnipeg Drainage Basin) by D. Sauchyn1 and J. St. Jacques1 Fisheries and Oceans Canada Freshwater Institute 501 University Crescent Winnipeg, MB, R3T 2N6 1 Prairie Adaptation Research Collaborative, University of Regina, Suite 120-2 Research Dr. Regina, Saskatchewan, S4S 7H9 iii © Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, 2016. Cat. No. Fs97-4/3107E-PDF ISBN 978-0-660-06484-0 ISSN 1488-5387 Correct citation for this publication: Sauchyn, D., and St. Jacques, J. 2016. Science, Assessments and Data Availability Related to Anticipated Climate and Hydrologic Changes in Inland Freshwaters of the Prairies Region (Lake Winnipeg Drainage Basin). Can. Manuscr. Rep. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 3107: vi + 69 p. iv TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT ...................................................................................................................... vii RÉSUMÉ .......................................................................................................................... vii Executive Summary ............................................................................................................ 1 Introduction ......................................................................................................................... 3 Climate and Water .............................................................................................................. 5 Recent Trends in Climate and Freshwater Resources ......................................................... 7 Temperature .................................................................................................................... 7 Precipitation .................................................................................................................. 10 Surface Water ................................................................................................................ 12 Longer-term surface water trends ................................................................................. 21 Future Climate and Hydrology ......................................................................................... 24 Climate Change Scenarios ............................................................................................ 25 Streamflow .................................................................................................................... 35 Lake Winnipeg .............................................................................................................. 38 Implications of Climate Change for the Inland Freshwaters of the Prairies Region ........ 40 Surface Water Quantity and Quality ............................................................................. 40 Groundwater ................................................................................................................. 41 Floating Freshwater (Lake and River) Ice .................................................................... 42 Climate Change and Water Management ......................................................................... 48 Conclusions ....................................................................................................................... 50 References ......................................................................................................................... 51 Appendix A: Trends in annual (or warm season) flow for 86 naturally flowing and five regulated streamflow records from the Prairie Provinces (from St. Jacques et al. 2012). 62 TABLES Table 1: Global Climate Modelling Centres (Barrow 2010) ............................................ 24 Table 2: Regional – Global Climate Model combinations available from NARCCAP. (Barrow 2010) ........................................................................................................... 26 Table 3: Mean and standard deviation of break-up [B(N)50 and B(S)50] and freeze-up [F(S)median] estimated by regression on the date when the 40-day moving average air temperature warmed to +5 (dropped below -5oc for freeze-up) using the record at Berens River for 1976-89 and output CGCM2 (scenarios A2 and B2) for the periods 2040-42 and 2076-88. (McCullough 2005) ............................................................ 45 Table A.1: The 86 naturally flowing and five regulated streamflow records from the Prairie Provinces (St. Jacques et al. 2012). ............................................................... 62 v FIGURES Figure 1: Map of the drainage basins of the Prairie Provinces. The Saskatchewan, Winnipeg, Assiniboine and Red Rivers drain into Lake Winnipeg. (Byrne et al. 2010) ........................................................................................................................... 5 Figure 2: Mean annual temperature records from across the Prairie Provinces for the period 1895-2005. (Sauchyn 2010)............................................................................. 8 Figure 3: Trends in seasonal mean Tmax (a) and Tmin (b) during 1961–2003 in the LWW at the 5% significance level. (Dibike et al. 2012) ............................................ 9 Figure 4. Positive and negative departures from mean annual precipitation, Medicine Hat, Alberta, 1895-2006. (Sauchyn 2010) ........................................................................ 10 Figure 5: Trends in seasonal precipitation (1961–2003) in the LWW at the 5% significance level. (Dibike et al. 2012) ..................................................................... 11 Figure 6: Annual PDSI from 1900 to 2007 for Saskatoon, SK. (Sauchyn and Bonsal, in press). ........................................................................................................................ 12 Figure 7: Prairie lakes 1820 – 2011: Devil’s Lake (ND) is rising since 1940 while nearby Canadian prairie lakes (Kenosee) were falling, until recently (van der Kamp et al.
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