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Of Military Spending Military spending, institutional stability and fiscal capacity. Spain in comp arative perspective (1850 - 2009) Oriol Sabaté Domingo A questa tesi doctoral està subjecta a la llicència Reconeixement - NoComercial – SenseOb raDerivada 3.0. Espanya de Creative Commons . Esta tesis doctoral está sujeta a la licencia Reconocimiento - NoComercial – SinObraDerivada 3.0. España de Creative Commons . Th is doctoral thesis is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution - NonComm ercial - NoDerivs 3.0. Spain License . PhD in Economic History Thesis title: Military spending, institutional stability and fiscal capacity. Spain in comparative perspective (1850-2009) PhD student: Oriol Sabaté Domingo Supervisors: Alfonso Herranz-Loncán Sergio Espuelas Barroso Tutor: Alfonso Herranz-Loncán Date: September 2015 iii List of contents List of contents ............................................................................................. iii List of Tables ............................................................................................... vii List of Figures .............................................................................................. ix Acknowledgments ........................................................................................ xi Introduction ................................................................................................. 1 i. Statement of the problems and research objectives ............................ 1 ii. Structure of the research ..................................................................... 6 Chapter 1. New quantitative estimates of long-term military spending in Spain (1850-2009) .................................................................................... 9 1.1. Introduction ..................................................................................... 9 1.2. International definitions of military spending ............................... 12 1.3. Methodological discussion on the Spanish dataset ....................... 16 1.3.1. The data sources ..................................................................... 18 1.3.2. Some methodological notes on the Spanish series ................. 20 1.4. The Spanish military spending (1850-2009) ................................. 23 1.4.1. Data on total military spending (1850-2009) ......................... 23 1.4.2. Previous estimates on Spanish military expenditure in late- modern times ............................................................................................ 26 1.4.3. The evolution of Spanish military expenditure ....................... 29 1.4.3.1. 1850-1876 ........................................................................ 29 1.4.3.2. 1877-1907 ........................................................................ 31 1.4.3.3. 1908-1935 ........................................................................ 35 1.4.3.4. 1939-1975 ........................................................................ 37 iv 1.4.3.5. 1976-2009 ........................................................................ 41 1.5. International comparisons (1870-2009) ........................................ 44 1.5.1. 1870-1913 ............................................................................... 44 1.5.2. 1919-1938 ............................................................................... 46 1.5.3. 1947-2009 ............................................................................... 48 1.6. Conclusions ................................................................................... 51 Annex A ................................................................................................... 52 A.1. Main budgetary items excluded from the military accounts ............ 52 A.1.1. Ministry of War ....................................................................... 52 A.1.2. Ministry of Navy ..................................................................... 59 A.1.3. Ministry of Air ........................................................................ 60 A.1.4. Ministry of Defence ................................................................ 63 A.2. Economic disaggregation of military expenditure ........................... 63 A.2.1. Personnel ................................................................................ 64 A.2.2. Military pensions .................................................................... 65 A.2.3. Investment ............................................................................... 68 A.2.4. Operational expenditures ....................................................... 70 Annex B. Dataset ..................................................................................... 70 Chapter 2. Do democracies spend less on the military? Spain as a long- term case study (1876-2009) ..................................................................... 99 2.1. Introduction ................................................................................... 99 2.2. Military policies in late-modern Spain ........................................ 104 2.3. The Spanish military burden (1876-2009) .................................. 109 2.4. The explanatory factors of the evolution of Spanish military spending (1876-2009) ............................................................................ 112 2.4.1. Structural breaks in Spanish military spending (1876-2009) ........................................................................................... 112 2.4.2. The explanatory factors of Spanish military spending (1876-2009) ........................................................................................... 117 v 2.5. Conclusions ................................................................................. 130 Annex C. List of wars in Spain, 1876-2009 .......................................... 131 Annex D. IV results ............................................................................... 132 Annex E. Regression results (Special Programs on Weaponry included) ................................................................................................ 133 Annex F. Regression results (amendments on personnel expenditures) .......................................................................................... 135 Chapter 3. Opening the ‘black box’ of military spending: coup- proofing strategies in Spain (1850-1915) ............................................... 137 3.1. Introduction ................................................................................. 137 3.2. Military intervention in politics ................................................... 140 3.2.1. The motives to intervene ....................................................... 140 3.2.2. The opportunities to intervene .............................................. 143 3.2.3. The impact of coup-proofing strategies in coup attempts .... 147 3.3. The Spanish case: coup d’états from 1833 to 1920 ..................... 150 3.4. Military spending and coup-proofing strategies in Spain ........... 157 3.5. Coup-proofing strategies and military grievances in public discourses ............................................................................................... 172 3.6. Conclusions ................................................................................. 176 Chapter 4. Does military pressure boost fiscal capacity? Evidence from late-modern military revolutions in Europe and North-America ...... 179 4.1. Introduction ................................................................................. 179 4.2. The interplay between warfare and fiscal expansion .................. 181 4.3. ‘Revolutions in Military Affairs’ since the mid-19th century ...... 185 4.4. Data on public expenditures and revenues .................................. 190 4.5. Structural breaks in total and direct tax revenues ........................ 198 4.6. The permanent effects of warfare on fiscal development ........... 202 4.7. The role of political regimes in fiscal persistence ....................... 207 vi 4.8. Conclusions ................................................................................. 213 Annex G. Data sources .......................................................................... 214 Annex H. List of major wars included in the regression analysis ......... 218 Conclusions .............................................................................................. 221 5.1. Main conclusions ......................................................................... 221 5.2. Limitations of the study and future lines of research .................. 226 Bibliography ............................................................................................ 233 vii List of Tables Chapter 1 Table 1. 1. Military spending definitions: items included .......................... 13 Table 1. 2. Alternative estimates on Spanish military burden (1850-2005) (% of GDP) ................................................................................................. 27 Table 1.3. Economic expenditure composition/GDP (1947-2005) ............ 29 Table 1.4. Military expenditure composition of every military ministry/GDP (1850-1935) (%) .................................................................. 33 Table 1.5. Chiefs and officers in military personnel expenditures from 1861 to 1926 (% of total personnel expenditures) ............................................... 34 Table 1.6. African colonial military expenditures and non-African military expenditures from 1913
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