Adaptation to climate change in the Almere region
Concept, 14 march 2013
Justification
Title Climate change in Almere C. O: The municipality of Almere Athours: IP COURSE ACCE 2013 Climate change in the Amere region Projectdescription Adaptation to climate change in the Almere region Total pages 87 Date 14 march 2013
Colophon Van Hall Larenstein IP Course Acce Climate change Almere Larensteinselaan 26a Postbus 9001 6882 CT Velp Telefoon +31 26 369 56 95 (reception) Fax +31 26 361 52 87
Preface
This report has been made in consequence of the IP course Almere that took place in the period from 10 march up to 23 march. The Report has been commissioned by the municipality of Almere, the content of this report consists of a study in adapting the Almere region up to the point where it can be considered climate proof. All the different facets of creating a climate proof polder area were studied. Written below, the list of these different facets. - Human safety - Heat stress in urbanized areas - Storm water nuisance - Water quality - Fresh water shortage - Salinization - Land subsidence
In the first of the two weeks of studying the impact of climate change and the vulnerability of the Almere region were investigated. In the second week adaptation pathways were made based upon the analysis of week one. The final report contains an enormous amount of high quality information, for that we are realy grateful. But we were not able to create this work of art without the enormous help and or hospitality of: - Peter Groenhuizen - Daan Van Der Linde - The municipality of Almere - Kindervakantieland - Haddock - Van Hall Larenstein
Furthermore we would specially like to thank all the foreign students who took the effort to travel quite some distance and made this report and the other two weeks possible.
IP COURSE ACCE 2013 Climate change in the Almere Region
Table of contents
Justification and colophon
Preface
Summary
1 Introduction ...... 9
2 Part A: Analysis of the impact of climate change ...... 13 2.1 Floodsafety ...... 13 2.1.1 Introduction ...... 13 2.1.2 Analyzing the problems ...... 15 2.1.3 Possible solutions ...... 17 2.2 Water nuisance ...... 18 2.2.1 Introduction to water nuisance ...... 18 2.2.2 Analyzing the problems ...... 18 2.2.3 Possible solutions ...... 19 2.3 Heat Stress ...... 22 2.3.1 Introduction to heat stress ...... 22 2.3.2 Analyzing the problems ...... 22 2.3.3 Possible solutions ...... 24 2.4 Ecological quality ...... 26 2.4.1 Introduction to ecological quality ...... 26 2.4.2 Analyzing the problems ...... 26 2.4.3 Possible solutions ...... 27 2.5 Food security ...... 28 2.5.1 Introduction to food security ...... 28 2.5.2 Analyzing the problems ...... 28 2.5.3 Possible solutions ...... 31 2.6 Mobility ...... 35 2.6.1 Introduction to mobility ...... 35 2.6.2 Analyzing the problems ...... 35 2.6.3 Conclusion ...... 39 2.7 Energy ...... 41 2.7.1 Introduction ...... 41 2.7.2 Analyzing the problems ...... 41 2.7.3 Possible solutions ...... 43 2.8 Recreation & leisure ...... 46 2.8.1 Introduction to recreation & leisure ...... 46 2.8.2 Analyzing the problems ...... 46 2.8.3 Possible solutions ...... 47
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2.9 Adaptation capacity ...... 49 2.9.1 Introduction to adaptation capacity ...... 49 2.9.2 Analyzing the problems ...... 49 2.9.3 Possible solutions ...... 50
3 Part B: Adaptation Pathways ...... 53 3.1 Almere & surroundings ...... 53 3.1.1 Area description ...... 53 3.1.2 Pathways ...... 53 3.2 Almere Haven ...... 58 3.2.1 Area description ...... 58 3.2.2 Pathways ...... 58 3.3 Almere city south ...... 62 3.3.1 Area description ...... 62 3.3.2 Pathways ...... 63 3.4 Almere city north ...... 64 3.4.1 Area description ...... 64 3.4.2 Pathways ...... 65 3.5 Almere Noorderplassen ...... 67 3.5.1 Area description ...... 67 3.5.2 Pathways ...... 69 3.6 Almere De Vaart ...... 71 3.6.1 Area description ...... 71 3.6.2 Pathways ...... 71 3.7 Almere Buiten ...... 74 3.7.1 Area description ...... 74 3.7.2 Pathways ...... 75 3.8 Almere Hout ...... 78 3.8.1 Area description ...... 78 3.8.2 Pathways ...... 78 3.9 Almere Water ...... 82 3.9.1 Area description ...... 82 3.9.2 Pathways ...... 82
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Summary
The report summarizes the achievements of a two-week course entitled “Adaptation to Climate Change in the Almere Region” coordinated by Van Hall Larenstein University of Applied Sciences in The Netherlands funded by the Erasmus Lifelong Learning Programme. The young and fast growing city of Almere in Flevoland was the host and the students from ten European countries had to come up with adaptation pathways for the municipality based on a field study.
Nine themes were studied throughout the first week and based on these findings possible adaptation pathways were developed during the second week. Flood safety, water nuisance, heat stress, ecological quality, food security, mobility, energy, recreation and leisure and adaptation capacity were the sectoral groups. Impact and vulnerability analyses were prepared by these teams and the adaptation pathways were studied according to the regions of Almere. Groups were mixed, consisting of students from different countries with different studies and expertise.
A modern and efficient kind of transportation was visualised with sustainable energy sources, increased green areas. The goal should be to make Almere an example of green, self-sustaining and lively city, where people like to live. We tend to deal a lot with the technical aspects of the possible effects of climate change but less with the behavioral, sociological aspects. Nonetheless climate change poses a serious threat on everything we have had so far, what we have been used to. Our forecasts contain a lot of uncertainty concerning the probable outcomes, the scale and timing of this, so society should be prepared for the changes when they are due. In the chapter of Flood safety, we are going to explain what the vulnerability of the city Almere is after a dike failure. We divided the critical assets into four categories. Mobility, assets where all the people live and work, and agricultural area are the most vulnerable parts. And the least one are the nature areas and fallow grounds. There is no recovery plan for the dike failure, but there is the option to let a part of Flevoland flooded and drains the Markerwaard instead. Water nuisance occurs when people experience inconvenience by negative effects of water. The information from this chapter is used to think of solutions and measurements to make Almere climate adaptive concerning water nuisance. We are going to accept both technical solutions and social solutions to give the optimistic and a realistic vision for the future. Even now, city centers can be as much as 5-10° warmer than areas outside the city. And the heat stress will cause lots of problems in rural and natural area, even in the urban area. Furthermore, it will affect the economic situation. We have given the possible solutions at this chapter with attractive pictures, which can maybe solve the heat stress in the future. In the chapter of Ecological quality, we are going to describe the changes and harm due to the climate change. Analysis of the current state, effects, possible solutions and a short conclusion related to the ecological quality are handled consecutively in this chapter. To create a sustainable and qualitative good ecosystem we thought about some solution to prepare Flevoland for the climate changes. Commonly, the concept of food security is defined as including both physical and economic access to food that meets people's dietary needs as well as their food preferences. We made some clear maps and graphs to show the importance of food security. Because the view that the right to food is a “universal human right”, so you can find the useful method to solve the problem in this chapter.
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In the second week all the teams made in the first week were mixed up to combine all different expertises from the first week. In the first week the impact of climate change and the vulnerability of the Almere region were studied, discussed and analysed. After the resolution for nine different categories was made week two started. The nine categories of study were: - Flood safety - Water nuisance - Heat stress - Ecological quality - Food security - Mobility - Energy - Recreation and leisure - Adaptation capacity
Almere has been separated into nine different areas and there were nine different teams assigned to them. Every team studied and analysed their specific area on the points as mentioned above. In the current situation the Almere region is not ready for the upcoming climate change challenge and will have to improve on all the nine points.
To become a more resilient robust and climate neutral area. The following actions should be taken according to our recommendations: On the aspect of flood safety: Improve dikes, increase power of pumping stations and more Water nuisance: Clean out lakes, intensify usage of bins in direct neighbourhoods. Heat stress: Widen urban areas, less density in urban areas, increase green. Ecological quality: Better organize forests add more nature increase green and blue structures in the Almere region Food security: Stimulate the use of more local products. Mobility: Stimulate use of public transportation, locate car free area’s and so on. Energy: usage of solar and wind energy should rapidly increase significantly. Recreation and leisure: enhance parks, improve quality of parks, use less concrete more green and keep parks clean. Adaptation capacity: Stronger dikes, less use of grey more green in the urban areas
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1 Introduction
Occasion In the Almere principles the urgency to anticipate on climate change effects is translated to create flexibility in order to enable future generations to cope with the uncertainty and to design cradle-to- cradle2 solutions that reflect the ecological, economical and social interactions within and between different scales.
We have been working with 12 nationalities. Because we were with so much different people, there was a lot of creativity.
Goal and problem The problem of this project is the climate change. What can Almere do to make sure that the city can handle the climate change. The goal of this project is to get some creative ideas of students from all over Europe (and China). On this way the municipality of Almere can get some ideas how people think about Almere and what they can do to make Almere into a save and climate friendly city.
Main question - What is the influence of the climate change on Almere?
Sub questions - How safe is the Almere region when a storm-surge occurs? How can Almere be protected? - How can heat stress in the urbanized areas be minimized? - How can water nuisance and damage due to heavy showers be reduced? - How can the water quality in the lakes be improved? - What is the risk of fresh water shortage and what measure have to be taken? - What is needed to prevent that salinization will harm the agricultural yields? - How to adapt to the expected land subsidence in the region? - What are possible solutions?
Area description The study area is the city of Almere and its surroundings (see figure 1). The municipality of Almere is part of the Provence of Flevoland and is situated in the heart of the Netherlands, adjacent to Amsterdam. The Provence is built on the bottom of Lake IJssel up to five meters below sea level. The area is protected by fierce dikes and excessive water is discharged by massive pumping stations. The polder in which Almere is located is surrounded by interconnected lakes, being part of the so-called lake IJssel area. The river IJssel is the most northern tributary of the river Rhine, the major river in The Netherlands
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Within thirty years, Almere has expanded into a city with a population of almost 190,000. Many of its citizens are satisfied with modern-day Almere. They are attached to its spaciousness, its greenness, the surrounding water and its multiple-core design. The existing wards involve Almere-Stad, the main city centre, Almere-Haven, Almere-Buiten (“Buiten” means “Outside”), Almere-Poort and Almere-Hout (see figure 2). The major part of the city is demarcated by lakes and partly by an extensive wetland area, the Oostvaarderplassen.
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Method The project was divided in two phases. The two phases are described underneath here. There is also a figure to explain how the groups were divided.
Phase 1 (first week): Impact & vulnerability Analysis of the impact of climate change, the vulnerability and the lessons learned in the Almere region. This analysis takes into consideration: - differences in scales - geographical structures using the layer-model - changes in time - actors involved
Phase 2 (week 2): Adaptation pathways. In this week an adaptation strategy in time is developed. The challenge is to create an imaginable future in which integrated responses are taken to cope with the effects of climate change.
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Target group The target group of this report is the municipality of Almere. Also the teachers and students who took part of this project.
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2 Part A: Analysis of the impact of climate change
2.1 Floodsafety 2.1.1 Introduction While Almere is very close to the water and below sea level, it is very vulnerable for flooding caused by a dike failure. Although their isn’t a great risk, it’s is important to know what will happen with the city of Almere and its surrounding during and after the flood. This investigation is important because a flood will cause major social- and economical damage.
The main goal we are going to analyze in this report what the vulnerability of the city of Almere is after a dike failure.
Method First of all, to introduce the members of the group in the topic of Flood Safety, the mind-mapping with different concepts related with flooding was made. Secondly, we discussed about what was our goals to work in these week and we decided the way to follow, in this way the vulnerability was understood. To do this the contents/factors of vulnerability were developed. A practice in defining vulnerability comes from natural hazards, such as floods: The extent to which a system is susceptible to floods due to exposure, a perturbation, in conjunction with its ability (or inability) to cope, recover, or basically adapt. So the vulnerability equations is: Vulnerability = Exposure + Susceptibility - Resilience Understanding each concept and considering certain indicators may help to characterize the vulnerability of different systems, by which certain actions can be identified to decrease it. Finally to analysis this factors was: Constructed a map with information about infrastructures there are to find the urbanized zones with more people; Analyzed maps about influence of flood when two dykes broken; Done interviews to Waterboard and Agency for Land Planning.
Exposure There a lot of critical assets in the area, which are divided into four categories. The most vulnerable asset is mobility, because if the roads and other infrastructure are flooded, no one is able to escape the flooded area. The second most vulnerable are the assets where all the people live and work, because of the lives at risk. The third most vulnerable area is agricultural, because it has economical value to the province. The least vulnerable assets are the nature areas and fallow grounds.
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Figure 1: Map of Almere with the different functions highlighted
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2.1.2 Analyzing the problems
Interviews To research about the vulnerability of Almere in relation with the flooding risk in case the dike breaks, we made some interviews that help us to clarify some ideas related with the capacity to cope and recovery after a flooding disaster and about how is the social perception of that risk. We had the opportunity to ask some questions to DLG Henk Moen from the Agency for Land Planning and Karin Visser and Christiaan Petit from the Waterboard Zuiderzeeland.
The main conclusions were: The dikes management The dike is managed by water board. Safety standards for breaking are 1 time in 4000 years. Flevoland is separated in 2 compartments by the Knardike. After a dike failure in one of the other dikes of one compartment, the second compartment stays dry by locking the sluices in the Knardike. The highest water levels are expected at north side of the Flevopolder because of the northwestern wind creating high water levels. A future possibility is to make a combination of functions such as recreation, houses and apartments on really broad dikes to lower the costs of building such expensive dikes. Flood management (after a dike failure) After a dike failure Flevoland is flooded in about 7 days. After the water is leveled the dike is fixed again, it takes 1,5 half years to pump the water out. The municipality is responsible for the evacuation of their citizens after a dike failure, they have certain disaster plans (??????) they corporate with firemen police hospitals and the army.
Awareness/perception Most of the people don’t really feel the risk of a dike failure and therefore they don’t really think about what they are going to do in case of flooding. They feel safe and aren’t really aware of living below sea level and the risks. After a dike failure, people try to get on the safer mainland but with flooded roads it is safer to stay at home and move to a higher place of the building. This is the only option because there aren’t any terrains in the polder which are above sea level. Ecological In the Flevopolder, there aren’t any big chemical factories or other risky factories which could damage the Ecological system in a major way, the pollution will be from smaller sources like gas stations, cars, wastewater etc. Recovery There aren’t any recovery plans after a flood in Flevoland. Some Experts think that it could possibly be cheaper to drain the Marker Lake then Recover the flooded polder. While dike failures aren´t very common, there are some general alarming and evacuation plans existing. In case of a disaster, people are going to be alarmed by a siren, in this case, people have to go to their houses, close their windows and doors and listen to the radio or TV for further instructions. Municipalities have their own tasks in crisis’s or disasters, like informing the citizens, to house register the victims and take further action. They work closely together with the police, firemen and other social services
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Resilience and existing proposals for Almere development The first proposal is compliant with Almere 2.0, the current strategic vision for Almere for the next coming years and it focuses on pure prevention. From a technical standpoint it involves strengthening of the dikes surrounding Almere region, or so called super dikes that are capable of withstanding very severe conditions. Advantages of this proposal include the capacity to store water in the future rural area named Oosterwold, as well as reduced complexity in administration. The cost projections are less than other solutions proposed. Downsides include limited use of landscaping which result in a flat living environment, less contact with the water behind the dikes, the need to construct a new train line and the impact on the A6, which currently represents an important evacuation route.
Second proposal was made in 2008 through the advice of Asselman & Alberts. This vision includes the use of an unbreakable dike surrounding a nucleus consisting of the most important part of Almere, and divides the rest of the land into compartments to reduce the amount of dike needed. This solution increases the safety in the most important compartment, and unifies the split city, but at the same time increases administration complexity. This solution bypasses the “bathtub effect” which forces a compromise between greater economic damage by letting a larger surface being flooded more slowly and limiting the flood in a confined territory but at a more accelerate pace and higher damage. Some downsides to this approach include a higher investment cost than others and the technical challenge of having several existing parts too close to the current dike. Another proposal included technology that allows easy management of the water flow through polder by implementing controllable inlets within the dikes themselves. This would allow for much better special quality of the environment by more extensive contact with the surrounding water. Also through active management of the water flows within the polder other problems such as water nuisance and heat abnormalities can be addressed. Downside is that the flood risk of already built areas addressed only in a marginal manner, with residual risk remaining. Another more expensive option would be the integration of water retaining landscapes which would not only provide a buffer for potential water surge that can occur in exceptional circumstances but also provide a more unique living environment with improved landscaping. Difficulty arises with the expenses required to raise the infrastructure, and the impossibility to do anything about the current build areas.
Some viewpoints toward a high risk low probability event such as a dike break follow a different strategy: flood proofing of essential services and vital infrastructures and having an evacuation plan. In a flood scenario people have the possibility to stay in the flooded area provided they couldn’t evacuate on time. Also through carefully engineered designs, the damage to buildings and infrastructure is limited so as to reduce the recovery time after the flood. The question that remains is who would return to an area that is subjected to the risk of being flooded.
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2.1.3 Possible solutions
People are not aware of the possibility of dike failure or what to do in such a situation There is a rare chance of a dike failure There are general disaster plans by the municipalities but aren’t very specific in case of a flood disaster. There is no recovery plan, but there is the options to let a part of Flevoland flooded and drain the Markerwaard instead.
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2.2 Water nuisance 2.2.1 Introduction to water nuisance When water goes to places where it should not go, people experience water nuisance. Water nuisance occurs when people experience inconvenience by negative effects of water. Some examples are rainwater inside the houses, water on the crops and water that affects the infrastructure. There are many topics that are related to water nuisance like flooding by a breached dike. Water nuisance has a great harm to people, but often the inhabitants are not aware of the danger caused by it. A research has been carried out to find problems and solutions that concern this topic. This report will inform you about these problems and solutions. The first chapter contains the analyses of the current situation and the weaknesses concerning water nuisance. The information from this chapter is used to think of solutions and measurements to make Almere climate adaptive concerning water nuisance.
2.2.2 Analyzing the problems The current situation Almere is located in a polder below sea level, so water nuisance occurs. Especially Almere is prone to flooding. The risk is about floods that are caused by extreme rainfall. The effects of climate chance only increase these risks. For example rising temperatures has an effect on the lakes and rivers. This will result in a bigger chance of eutrophication and this can lead to blue algae. Blue algae will result in water nuisance since it is poisonous to humans. In Almere there is a lot of urban area, so the risk of flooding is both a large financial as well as social risk. Nearby Almere there is a natural habitat for wetlands and clay soil. If they want to keep these wetlands they will have to lead water to this place, to keep it in the natural state, because this area is vulnerable to water nuisance concerning eutrophication. Most measures against climate change are executed on a national or provincial level. For example there has been improvement in Water Storage projects, Ecological Main Structure and Agricultural Structure. In Almere, these national and provincial strategies are being implemented within local urban development plans. One of their current measures is a computer model that can calculate what happens if a heavy rain shower falls onto the area, they predict how much the water will rise and what the effects will be. Another measure is the design of the polder. They constructed it in such a way, that they only have 2% of water at the surface. Because it is designed like this, they can use a large area to spread the water that comes with expected heavy rain showers. Drought is not a relevant topic, although many people think it is. The whole polder is below sea level and because of this there is a continuous flow of seepage. This results in a steady groundwater level which prevents droughts.
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Weaknesses concerning water nuisance The main weakness Almere region has to deal with is related to instant intensive rainfalls which will occur due to the climate change. Flooding causes a lot of damage and it can be dangerous for inhabitants of Almere region. It is necessary to lead the rain water somewhere, where it will not have any negative effects. At the moment there are not enough solutions for rain water storage. The water system deals with this problem by spreading unwanted rain water into special areas that are not connected to the urban areas. This strategy leads to the second weakness, eutrophication.
There are many diffuse sources of eutrophication in Almere region: municipal discharge sewage, dissolving of nitrogen oxides from internal combustion engines and furnaces, run off from streets, lawns and construction lots, inorganic fertilizers run off and discharge of detergents. Because of the variability of the sources it is very difficult to control and to deal with. This phenomenon might increase by the rising temperature caused by climate change. This means that the water quality might decrease in the future and could cause health risks. There is also a possibility for the growth of blue-algae in the stationary water diffused by the water system. This makes the water very stinky and toxic. This process could decrease the possibility of recreation and people might leave the area.
2.2.3 Possible solutions 2.2.3.1 Technical Solutions The figure 3.1 shows a schematization of the expecting problems and solutions of the topic: Make Almere adaptive to climate changes concerning water nuisance. The first level describes what the effects are of water nuisance on the city of Almere. Those effects have some visible impacts on the area. The second level shows the possible solutions to catch the effects of the climate changes. The effects of the climate changes have some serious influences on the area. Not only on the overall scale but also on the local scale are the effects giving al lot of problems. That is why the final solutions are separated at the last level.
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Figure 2-1 Technical solutions
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2.2.3.2 Social solutions
It is necessary to introduce the upcoming problems to the locals and to give them an optimistic and a realistic vision of the future. The world they are living in is changing and they have to accept this fact. There are different ways to get the subject ‘’hot’’. It is important to give environmental education programs at schools. With this kind of education you can prepare the children for possible problems for now and the future. Excursions at neighborhoods can be effective to reach the rest of the locals. On excursions like this it is possible to show the technical solutions. When you compare the problems with the solutions there will be a realistic view about what is going on with the water system that surrounds them. If this will work well you create many satisfied inhabitants of the region which is the best way how to make Almere region popular for potential incoming people.
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2.3 Heat Stress 2.3.1 Introduction to heat stress Even now, city centers can be as much as 5-10° warmer than areas outside the city. There are more buildings that retain heat, less evaporation, less green areas, less open space, more industry, traffic and exhaust of C02. This extreme heat in the city centers can be a threat to the inhabitants of the city. Beside that it could forces up energy consumption and the costs of air-conditioning.
This report gives an overview of heat stress problems in Almere and rural areas and various options to adept on this stress. Climate change is causing more occurrences of heat waves. Urban areas in particular will suffer the most, as they are warmer than the countryside. This report contains different subjects: What does Heat Stress means in Dutch urban areas? How can heat stress in the urbanized areas be minimized? What solutions and responses are possible to reduce the vulnerability?
Figure 1: Heat Stress isn’t cool 2.3.2 Analyzing the problems Current situation By 2050, the city is expected to double in size, adding 60,000 new housing units and 100,00 extra jobs. This tremendous challenge is called in Dutch “schaalsprong”, which can roughly be translated as the leap forward that is needed to achieve the new scale of the city.
The scale jump involves reinforcement of the current city, new wards in the east and the west and enlargement of the ecological framework, especially in the Lake Marker. The conceptual idea for the new wards in is to create low-density rural living areas and working environments to counterweigh the high-rise estates in the city Centre.
These new developments will increase the problems of heat stress in Almere.
2.3.2.1 Weakness/problems concerning heat stress Heat stress in the city As mentioned in the introduction of this report cities generally exhibit higher temperatures than the surrounding rural areas; under particular conditions, the temperatures can exceed 5-10°. Below we will describe the problem that causes the heat stress in Almere.
There are several causes for this urban heat phenomenon, including radiation trapping, low evapotranspiration, small atmospheric heat exchange coefficient, high thermal admittance, and the presence of waste heat sources from anthropogenic activities, including traffic and residential heating and cooling. With the increasing use of air conditioning devices, high temperatures induce extra consumption of electrical energy. The waste heat that is rejected by air conditioning equipment
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Heat stress in rural areas In Almere area there is total of 66 km2 of rural Total area km2 % area, which is about 26,4% of the total area of Almere. All natural area covers about 100 Forrest 25 10 km2, which is about 40% of the area. So the Rural area 66 26,4 rural and natural area under heat stress is a Greenhouses 5 2 remarkable part of the municipality. Wetlands 4 1,6 Total 100 40 Rising temperatures are a problem in rural area as well. Heat is a big problem because it can cause the final product to be of poor quality and that can cause the economic situation of the farmers to worsen. In animal husbandry heat causes stress to animals and they feel uncomfortable and in crop production the quantity and quality of the yield reduces. If there aren’t enough shelters and shade for animals on the pasture, they will suffer from the heat. Problem is solved with shelters or trees that provide shadow for the animals. Also insufficient air- conditioning in animal shelters is a problem. The air is not changed. The hot air circles around in the building and no cool air is let in. If the conditions for example in cowshed are too hot, the quality drops and the quantity of milk reduces. Old animal shelters could be modified to let the cool air in, either with windows that can be opened, ventilation panels or with air-conditioning.
In crop production, moisture is evaporated from the uncovered fields, which causes the quality of soil to deteriorate and it makes cultivating crops impossible. Problem is solved by leaving the fields covered with crop residues after harvesting. Dry and hot summers also effect on yield quality. When the air is really hot, the intake of water in the plants is disturbed and it also disturbs the growth and nutrient intake. In crop production the final product is the harvested grain. Because of the heat, the growth of the plant slows down, the consistency of seeds changes to undesirable direction and the number of seeds in one plant reduces. That’s why yields tend to be smaller in too hot conditions. Problems caused by dry and hot summers can be solved by watering the fields if possible and by choosing the most suitable cultivar for the conditions. Cultivar suitable for dry and hot conditions needs to be able to stand drought and heat well. Suitable are small cultivars, which don’t waste energy on growing but instead building up the yield.
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2.3.3 Possible solutions This chapter gives an overview of heat stress solutions in Almere.
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2.4 Ecological quality
2.4.1 Introduction to ecological quality In this chapter the changes of the ecological qualities are described due to climate change. The ecological vulnerability, sustainability and quality depend on habitat conditions which are determined by climate change. Analysis of the current state, effects, possible solutions and a short conclusion related to the ecological quality are handled consecutively in this chapter.
2.4.2 Analyzing the problems Current situation Nowadays the land is mainly in use for agricultural needs. The existing natural ecosystems are mainly concentrated in the natural heritage park the "Oostvaardersplassen". This park was firstly intended as an industrial area. Due to lack of interests it was left behind. It resulted in the development of an unique industrial wasteland. Large wild grazers as Konick horses, red deer's and ox's were launched here and they expended dramatically.
Outside the "Oostvaardersplassen" there were mainly trees planted to keep the wind out of the urban areas. The poplar tree is the most planted specie because it is a fast and high growing tree even in wet areas. Nowadays the variety of species is growing by removing whole parts of the poplars and plants other species like beech tree, oak, lime tree, elm, ash etc. To prepare the vegetation against the climate change they cut certain areas down so nature can decide what kind of vegetation is growing.
Weakness & problems concerning ecological quality Climate change is effecting the ecology of Almere. The main problems are raising temperatures and decrease of soil level. Also the sea level is rising due to the climate change. There will be less oxygen if the water temperature keeps increasing because the algae will grow more rapidly. Because the microbes that eat the dead algae use all the oxygen what is in the water. This in combination with less sunlight causes the decrease of oxygen. This will lead to a change of the water eco-system.
The higher temperature in average results in changes to the flora and fauna climate change (ecosystems). It means that the known ecosystem gets out of balance which causes an higher higher invasion of new species. Due to temperature in temperature of arvarage water the new species there will be also new insects and diseases. It change of flora also is problem of the less Oxygen more algae and fauna agricultural eco-system. The crops which have been new species of produced for years are not able change insects and quality change agriculture to survive the new habitat deseases condition like ground water rise and longer periods of drought change water more pesticides interspersed with heavy rainfall. ecosystem
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2.4.3 Possible solutions It is not possible to manage climate changes, but can prepare ideas and solution to the possible consequences. To create a sustainable and qualitative good ecosystem we thought about some solution to prepare Flevoland for the climate changes. The largest influence of the climate change is the higher temperatures so that's our main focus. By using the fresh water of the IJssel there is a possibility to avoid the oxygen-loss. It also prevents the growth of algae. This will lead to a better water quality in chemical as well as the biological values.
The climate change will cause higher temperature so we have to adapt to this with adaptable species in agriculture as in the natural habitats. By creating natural corridors the moving of flora and fauna from south to north will be stimulated. For this result there is change of legislation needed. This is also in agreement with Natura 2000. Alternative agricultural methods are also necessary to be used- for instance: perm culture, organic farming etc.
Conclusion and discussion Doubt occurred whether salinization should have been in the effect analysis or not. According to extern specialists the water is getting more brackish by the time but it hasn't been proven that it is caused by climate change. Even if climate change contributes to the salinization it still is unknown how big the contribution is and maybe it is even negligible compared to other factors. Waterboard "zuiderzee" advised to leave the salinisation out as an effect of the climate change.
The technical and economic feasibility of the idea of using fresh water from the IJssel for refreshing the brackish water hasn't been tested.
By measuring the biodiversity we should evaluate all the three levels of it as habitats, species and genetically diversity as well. The ecological tipping point could also be based on a measure of indicator species per square meter. Also imaginable could be to measure the amount of people who aware of the impact of climate change on the ecology. It could be measured in people who attend in ecological activities.
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2.5 Food security 2.5.1 Introduction to food security The World Food Summit from 1996 defined food security as existing “when all people at all times have access to sufficient, safe, nutritious food to maintain a healthy and active life”. Commonly, the concept of food security is defined as including both physical and economic access to food that meets people's dietary needs as well as their food preferences. The World Health Organization defines three facets of food security: food availability, food access, and food use. Food availability is having available sufficient quantities of food on a consistent basis. Food access is having sufficient resources, both economic and physical, to obtain appropriate foods for a nutritious diet. Food use is the appropriate use based on knowledge of basic nutrition and care, as well as adequate water and sanitation. The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) adds a fourth facet: the stability of the first three dimensions of food security over time.
Food security is a complex sustainable development issue, linked to health through malnutrition, but also to sustainable economic development, environment, and trade.
Agriculture remains the largest employment sector in most developing countries and international agriculture agreements are crucial to a country's food security. The climate change inevitably affects agriculture and the food safety it’s threatened precisely because of the agriculture importance. Climate change is became a real concern for the sustainable development of agriculture, both globally and within the EU. Although agriculture is a complex and highly evolved sector, it is still directly dependent on climate, since heat, sunlight and water are the main drivers of crop growth. 2.5.2 Analyzing the problems Analysis of the current situation Almere region currently has, as otherwise Netherlands, a high food safety which is always desirable by the authorities in the field and by the people. The Netherlands ranks 5th on global Food Security Index. The US, Denmark, Norway, France and the Netherlands are the top-5 most food-secure countries in the world, according to the Food Security Index published by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU). For reaching this rank a country needs a combination of ample food supplies, high incomes, low spending on food relative to other outlays and significant investment in agricultural research and development (R&D).
In the region of Almere agriculture plays an important role. As it is shown in the following maps the most produced crops are potatoes, beet, grain and maize. The total area of Flevoland is 1415km2 and 63% of this area is used by agriculture.
As it is shown on the first map there is more agriculture around Almere than in the municipality of Almere, which is shown on the second map.
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Figure 1: Agricultural land use around Almere
Figure 2: Agricultural land use in Almere
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Influence of climate change on local food security The threats posed by climate change that can affect food security in Almere region are various and have both local and international character and follow the three pillars of sustainability: Planet - Profit – People
PLANET During the last 20 years the average temperature has not changed at all but when it will raise because of the climate change the conditions will change so that they are not anymore equal with the living conditions of the plants. Even if the average temperature is not changing there are several extreme amounts possible. On the one hand it means there are extreme summers and extreme winters possible and on the other hand summer and winter can also assimilate to each other.
Average temperature
30.00
20.00 ˚C] 10.00
0.00 1-1-1990 27-9-1992 24-6-1995 20-3-199814-12-200010-9-2003 6-6-2006 2-3-2009 27-11-201123-8-2014
-10.00 temperature temperature [ -20.00 Date
Figure 3: Average temperature from 1990 – 2014
50 Rainfall
40
30
20
10 Rainfall [mm/day] Rainfall 0
-10 Date Figure 4: Average rainfall from 1990 – 2014
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Looking on the rainfall during the last 20 years the total amount of rainfall doesn’t change that much. But the same amount of rain falls in a shorter period. The water system cannot handle such big amounts of rainfall that is why the water will need more time to infiltrate. Also rivers and streams can overflow after a heavy rainfall. Another problem is the periods between extreme rainfalls. In this periods the ground can be to dry. The extreme dryness and wetness result in a big fluctuation of groundwater levels. This makes it difficult for plants to grow, because they need a groundwater level which is neither too high nor too low. For some plants it will be a bigger problem than for other crops. For example maize can grow in wetter conditions than potatoes.
Salinization Salinization will always play a role in the polder region, because the region is situated below sea level. Through the intrusion of sea water to the groundwater the crops have less fresh water. Also the fresh water storage for the people of Almere becomes smaller. If the sea level rises there will be more seawater infiltrating to the groundwater. Then salinization will become a bigger problem for the agriculture.
2.5.3 Possible solutions Because of the fluctuation of groundwater level and the change of rainfall the plants should be adapt to the locational conditions. That means it is necessary to do a research now, which areas will be good for planting which plant and start to plant them like that right now. It will be also helpful to use plants which are more flexible and more tolerant. Another idea is to collect the rain over the wet seasons (for example with drainage) and to reuse it in the dry seasons. Though the water level will also be the same during the year. This solution is already used by farmers since the last 10 years. It is also necessary that the rivers and streams are able to take more water than at the moment. There are some farmers who already change the capacity of the streams near the fields. Apart from that the fields should have a higher diversity in structure. In regions where the water level raises it is possible to heighten up the soil. This is actually a very expensive solution, because you need good quality soil to heighten up the soil. Otherwise you have to use a lot of fertilizer to make the soil productive.
PROFIT AND PEOPLE Another risk is related to the issue of financing and foreign trade. It is possible that local producers do not have the resources to counter any losses caused by climate change. Also, many of the products for the Netherlands and thus Almere region are from imports. Although the Netherlands is the third largest exporter in the Euro Area and derives more than two-thirds of its GDP from merchandise trade historically, from 1960 until 2012, Netherlands Imports averaged 9934.25 EUR Million reaching an all-time high of 34659.10 EUR Million in October of 2012 and a record low of 584.90 EUR Million in August of 1960. The Netherlands main imports are: fuel (29 percent of total imports), machinery (26 percent), food and live animals (8.6 percent), pharmaceuticals and electronics. Main import partners are: Germany (17 percent of total imports), Belgium (10 percent), China (8.5 percent), United Kingdom (6.9 percent), United States (6.6 percent), Russia and Italy
It is obvious that the Netherlands has a need for food and animal imports and the partner countries are also affected by climate change. The risks of food imports are even greater because we see that imports began to increase steadily and the trade balance is on a slightly downward trend.
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DUTCH EXPORTS AND IMPORTS FORECASTS 40000.00 35000.00 30000.00 25000.00 20000.00
Mil. Euro Mil. 15000.00 10000.00 5000.00 0.00 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Imports 34004.40 30640.40 31022.77 31551.12 31984.55 Exports 37882.60 33943.40 34564.32 35043.18 35407.74
Figure 5: Dutch exports and imports forecasts
BALANCE OF TRADES 4000.00
3800.00
3600.00
3400.00 Mil. Euro Mil. 3200.00
3000.00 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Balance of trades 3878.20 3303.00 3474.36 3466.14 3458.30
Figure 6: Dutch balance of trades forecasts
Also a risk from this category is the decreasing of purchasing power of the local population and one of the reasons for this phenomenon is the economic crisis that could bring some families in the situation of not having monetary resources to procure food. Also, one of the risks is the decrease of domestic consumption which is an important indicator for the food purchasing and, unfortunately, the decline of Netherlands population consumption indicator is obvious.
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Figure 7: Netherlands consumer spending
SOLUTIONS In the opinion of the local farmers themselves, the province of Flevoland has the best soil suitable for agriculture, unique in the Netherlands and other countries. Products grown here are very demanded on the global market so they can be sold for a great amount of money. Their incomes stimulate the economy which is very important to keep the Netherlands viable. Products suitable for consumption don’t need the great quality the products from the Flevopolder have and can be taken anywhere, imported for a much lower price than the income from the export. It is important to keep this business running.
City-farming The Nobelhorst is a new nucleus, planned on the east side of Almere city. There will be 400 hectares of –now very good- soil for agriculture, where self-building will be stimulated in a village form where city farming is a point of interest IJmere is a building cooperation working on the project, specifically planned for social households. People seem interested in city-farming so it should be stimulated.
Forrest farming In some forests around Almere there are already fruit trees like apples and nuts, which in this occasion, are used for more recreational purposes. It may also be possible to grow these fruits on a wider scale in the region in order to create a bigger buffer for needs of food in the near future. For this to happen water should be regulated decently in order to create a decent atmosphere for fruits to grow. Water should be able to get pumped out in wet periods and with frost coming, farmers must be able to irrigate to protect their crops.
Local products In the Northeast Polder in the province of Flevoland farmers united to deliver their products to local supermarkets, restaurants and consumers directly. They offer potatoes, onions, pumpkins, cabbage, beets, carrots and other vegetable and fruit. Orders on the products from the store are from the entire country by post. Potatoes are the best selling products. They also give some tips about conserving food and vegetables at home so people can keep using them for a longer time in order to have food in state of emergency.
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The farmers in the region are also busy with the subject of climate change for over 10 years already. New techniques are used to cope with the future changes. Also solar energy is being used to make the agricultural sector more sustainable.
Caring farms There should be care farms under the funds of the government. People with a limitation can work on these farms and produce vegetables for the local citizens of Almere. During the harvest it is also possible for locals to gather their own vegetables for consumption for a low price.
Food banks Second in the North East polder potatoes are being sent to the local food bank. Food banks can be very important to increase the availability of food for local people, people with less income, unable to buy a decent diner, can get a meal here. This should be promoted.
EU Financing solution There is general agreement that the CAP is essential for EU food security. The EU plays a leading role in ensuring global food security, because the view that the right to food is a “universal human right”, which must be recognized and supported by the CAP. The European Commission has been setting the options to help the adaptation process and on four priority areas, including early action to avoid damage and reduce overall costs.
It also creates some adjustments to the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) for providing opportunities to examine how to integrate adaptation to the climate change into agriculture support programs. The CAP also promotes good farming practices that are compatible with changing climatic conditions. The European Commission, through “Axis 2: Improving the environment and the countryside” provides support to sustainable development and the main aspects to take into account include biodiversity, water and soil protection and climate change mitigation. All beneficiaries receiving aid in the name of improving the environment and the countryside are required, throughout the whole of the holding, to comply with the regulatory obligations on management (in the areas of health, the environment and animal welfare) and the good agricultural and environmental conditions laid down in the Regulation on the single payment (Regulation No 73/2009). Also other funding sources can be obtained from other investment funds and from private investors (possibly encouraging public - private partnerships). Furthermore the local manufacturers should be open to new ideas to exploit local potential (new business ideas) that could also bring funds and create new jobs.
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2.6 Mobility 2.6.1 Introduction to mobility This chapter is concentrated on mobility. We looked at all kinds of transportation and effects of climate change on mobility. We tried to describe the main problems and find some new solutions. Mobility means literally “the quality of moving freely”. That means you can move freely in Almere with all kinds of transportation, like the bus, car, bike, train or on foot. Mobility of persons and goods is an essential component of industry and services. We´d like to offer a high level of mobility to people and business, so that they will benefit from this on a daily basis. Effective transportation system has a big importance and a huge impact on economic growth, the environment and a social development. Urban mobility will bring the communities together. Our goal is to make a sustainable transport system, which will be environmentally friendly and safe, use the alternative energy sources and the innovative solutions which are energy efficient. We need to mitigate the negative effects of pollution and accidents.
2.6.2 Analyzing the problems Strengths and weaknesses The strong side of the transportation in Almere is the system of divided roads for the cars, buses and bikes. That means less accidents and less noise in the city (especially in comparison to Amsterdam). The weak part is a safety of the bike paths after getting dark and a low frequency of the buses and trains, so that people prefer to use the cars. It causes a lot of traffic jams in the morning and afternoon.
Opportunities and threats Our opportunity is to create more connections, not just through the city, but also to the Randstad – the biggest cities of the Netherlands (Amsterdam, Utrecht, Rotterdam and Hague). We might start using the tram transportation through Almere and build a boat public transportation between Almere and Amsterdam. To build new roads, higher above the ground level. And to build new train connection from Utrecht, via Stichtse Brug and A27. Another important target would be to increase the frequency of the public transportation and to make it more accessible, so we can mitigate the traffic jams and air and water pollution.
Threats are connected to the climate changes. Due to increasing of the sea level and declining of the ground level, the area might be highly endangered by floods. It is very important to maintain the dikes and find some new solutions of using the renewable energy sources, to make the system sustainable.
Analysis of the current situation Public transportation in Almere Train You can find straight trains coming from Amsterdam Central, from the Schiphol airport and Utrecht. The trains from Amsterdam take about 20 to 35 minutes and leave every 5 to 20 minutes. They stop at 4 stations in Amsterdam, then Almere Poort, Almere Muziekwijk, Almere Centrum, Almere Parkwijk, Almere Buitenand and Almere Oostvaarders, going further to Lelystad and Zwolle. The trains from Schiphol take about 30 to 45 minutes and leave every 5 to 20 minutes. They stop at 5 stations in Amsterdam, Almere Poort, Almere Muziekwijk, Almere Centrum, Almere Parkwijk, Almere Buitenand and end in Almere Oostvaarders. There are also train connections from Utrecht. These trains go every 30 minutes, take about 40 minutes and stop in all the stations in Almere.
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Pic. 1 Segment of a Spoorkaart 2013 BIKE Bicycle is one of the most used means of transportation in the Netherlands. In Almere, like in the rest of the Netherlands, there are separated roads for cyclers. The map shows the cycling system in Almere and surroundings. It is a simple, good working system, usable for everyone. The only problem, realized by interviewing, is the feeling of unsafely while riding a bike at night.
BUS There is a good working system with many different bus lines to all the parts of Almere. However the system could be improved by increasing the frequency of the buses and accessibility of the bus stations. Nowadays the buses leave every 30 min. The map shows the bus lines in Almere:
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Information about citizens/work in Almere On January 1st 2013 there were 195.000 citizens in Almere. In total 97800 of them were capable to work (information 2011) and 43.700 of them worked outside Almere. There are 66.000 workplaces in Almere and 46.800 of the workplaces are occupied by own citizens. All these employees are using the transport system, so it is really important to make it efficient.
Weakness & problems concerning mobility
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If you imagine the worst scenario in Almere, we can´t do much about the transport system, however, we can act on simple problems we find every day. Heavy rain: In case of heavy rain the ground might not have sufficient absorption capacity, which could lead to flooding the streets or roads. To increase this capacity we can create more grass surfaces around the streets making the sides of streets permeable. We can improve the absorption capacity also by creating the groves between fields. Other problem might by flooding of tunnels. If this situation happens very often, we should think about more profitable solutions and for example install the small automatic pumps in the tunnels (or those frequently flooded), which will call to firefighters every time it happens. Heavy rains could also erode the road and dike slopes. There are two traditional solutions for this situation: installation of geotextiles or planting trees to keep the soil in the right place. Another solution is to create drainage canals around the paths, which will absorb the polluted water and lead it to a treatment station. Water pollution: We can build a
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IP COURSE ACCE 2013 Climate change in the Almere Region special sewage system in the streets of the city that will collect and treat rainwater from the roads. The rainwater that falls on the streets is very polluted because it contains oils and another car waste. The water could be cleaned and reused to irrigate gardens or could be used on industrial processes. Rising temperature: One of the effects of climate change is increase of temperature range, so that the roads can be easily damaged. We must use dilatation joints to prevent the breakage of materials, or we can investigate about new materials which are not so effected by heat stress.
Wind: Climate change may lead to an increased number of storms and their intensity. Strong winds affect driving and we must act to reduce their impact on the roads. We can plant leafy trees near the roads to create a natural barrier against them, but we must consider the safety of drivers to set the distance in which they are planted.
Subsidence: We can define the subsidence as a process of ground settlement when it experiments some kind of pressure, modifying its position to get the balance of the forces. So we are on a double way situation. We increase the pressure if we build new paths, and these pressures can modify the form of the paths. To mitigate these effects, we can carry the pressure to more resistant layers of the ground or extend the forces. We must study the costs of these actuations to decide in what paths we must act and how.
Air pollution: Air pollution is not an effect of the climate change, but is one of the most important causes of it. We must not forget that the mobility has a big influence on the air pollution, so we must try to promote the use of better and cleaner transportation system. We should promote the collective public transportation system and try to create an efficient net of transportation, increasing the frequency, accessibility, comfort, and decrease of prize.
2.6.3 Conclusion Almere offers a huge variety of transport means that allow the population to travel around the city and to the others near cities like Amsterdam, Utrecht or Rotterdam. The mobility system is very important for the growth of the city and for the economic and social development. The current mobility system in Almere is appropriate to the actual population, but in case of increasing the population in the future, we will need to improve the system through the creation of new circuits and connections, and also to develop a modern and efficient kind of transportation, like a tram system. Another short term improvement could be to increase the frequency and accessibility of the trains and buses.
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We also should not forget that the city of Almere is in a very complicated situation because the climates change, that could cause very serious consequences. The goal is to make Almere as an example of a clean and efficient transportation system.
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2.7 Energy
2.7.1 Introduction Without energy there would be no life. Because the population is growing, the consume of energy will grow. Therefore, there must be more produce of energy. A lot of people depend on unsustainable sources of energy. In the future, the unsustainable sources of energy might be depleted or might not be enough for the whole population. That is one of the reasons, sustainable sources of energy started playing quite an important part of some people’s lives. Sun, water, wind and biomass might be the only source of energy in the future. People don´t have to depend on the big energy companies. They could depend on their selves. They could produce as much energy as they consume. It would be a complex combination of alternative sources of energy, saving energy, energy efficient buildings, self-sufficiency and of course education. It should result in a neighborhood, or a village in a city, that would be energy efficient and self-sufficient, built by people that would participate on the project from the beginning, and influence other people, towns, cities or countries and inspire them to do so.
2.7.2 Analyzing the problems In this chapter the different aspects of energy are described. The findings of the field research are included as well as the general effects of energy on the climate and the effects of the climate on energy production 2.7.2.1 Current state in Almere
Strengths
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Almere has some strengths, around Almere much agriculture is present this is a highlight of the province. The soil is very fertile, that´s why the crops grow very well. Numerous agriculture around Almere is offering opportunities for other developments around the city. Furthermore, there is sufficient fresh water available for drinking water and such. And the wind is blowing relatively hard by the many open areas around Almere.
Weaknesses In addition, there are also potential bottlenecks in the area. Because there is good agriculture the farmers do not like to lose fertile soil. Almere is dependent on energy companies, if someone wants to invest in energy the government has to approach these companies.
Opportunities Opportunities are always there, also in Almere, for example bio-energy. Numerous agriculture is present, that’s why there will be many organic wastes. This can be converted into biogas. In addition they can build residential neighborhood that consist of energy neutral homes. Furthermore they can educate villagers and make children aware of energy and how they should deal with it in the future.
Threats Because of the climate change there will be more extreme weather conditions. This means that the summers get warmer and dryer. This is a threat to agriculture, fresh water stock and eventually the groundwater. It will be colder in winter and in spring and autumn the rains will be more extreme, increasing the chances of flooding. Further, there is an economic crisis in Netherlands whereby more expensive, alternative energy investments might not be created or funded.
Impact of energy on climate change Nowadays most of the people rely on energy coming from unsustainable sources like gas, petroleum and coal. When burning these fossil fuels a lot of pollution is exhausted into the air, and therefore being one of the main causes of the greenhouse effect. The greenhouse gasses, carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O) are building up into the atmosphere, blocking the re- radiated heat from the earth, causing higher temperatures and less radiation of heat into space.
Impact of climate change on energy Effects of climate Higher Higher More rain Longer period Bad air quality
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IP COURSE ACCE 2013 Climate change in the Almere Region change sea levels temperature (intensity) of drought Wind energy + + + + + Solar energy + + -/+ + +/- Bio energy +/- + + -/+ + Geothermic energy + + + - +
Wind energy is almost not affected by the aspects of climate change. Whether the climate changes or not, it does not affect the production of wind energy because windmills can be built on land but also at sea. The thing that can be negative in the future is that the wind direction will change more often and gets different intensity and duration, but because the wind isn’t predictable it’s hard to say if it will be negative. The climate change has light influence on solar energy, in the future it will be a few degrees warmer and the sun will be more intense in the summer. Therefore, the efficiency of solar panels is higher. Because in the future the air quality is also getting worse, there is a threat that the contaminated particles in the air affect the solar panels or fouling. The climate change has little influence on bio energy; the biggest problem will be the supply of organic products. The bioreactor needs a constant supply of organic products. If this is not available in the vicinity can be reached then the transport costs and emissions affecting them negative. The climate change has little influence on geothermic energy; only the long dry periods can cause a problem with the water table. To ensure the maximum return the water table may not vary a lot.
2.7.3 Possible solutions This chapter will contain the solutions to the problems described in the analyses. Every solution will be explained and will evolve around the concept of creating a new neighborhood.
2.7.3.1 Sources of sustainable energy Energy issues become paramount in recent years due to exhaustion of fossil fuel resources and price variation. In addition, changing climate conditions require reducing emissions of greenhouse gases. Renewable energy does not produce greenhouse gases, unlike fossil fuels and their use leads to sustainable development. Possible solutions: Solar energy - solar panels, water heaters Wind energy - wind mills Water energy - hydroelectric Biomass energy - pellet stations Geothermal energy - geothermal pumps
2.7.3.2 Bioenergy Bioenergy is environmental friendly and renewable form of energy that you can get from different kinds of biomasses for example wood, arable crops and biomass waste. Bioenergy is carbon-neutral source of energy so it does not increase carbon dioxide emissions, carbon that is released from biomass burning engages to re-growing biomass. On the other hand the same amount of carbon that is released from burning the biomasses would release if the biomass would decompose naturally. By replacing fossil fuels to fuels that are made from biomass we can reduce greenhouse gases and thereby slow down climate change. Bioenergy is obtained from - Wood-based fuels (wood chips, pellets etc.)
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- Field biomasses (reed canary grass, hemp, energy-willow, straws etc.) - Biogas - From the biodegradable part of recycle- and waste fuels We already know all the possible solutions but we need to develop a smart system with mixed solutions to be more accessible to low income class also.
Wind energy Wind power is source of energy where the kinetic energy of the wind is transformed in to energy usually by using wind turbines.
Solar energy Solar energy is energy that is obtained by utilizing the radiation of the sun. The radiation is collected by solar panels and used as an electrical or thermal energy.
Education Society in general plays one of the main roles in energy and in the end it should be the people who will choose which types of energy to use and more importantly, how much power they want to use everyday. Nowadays we don´t see much participation and action coming from people. For this reason we need to have a good education to train future good politics who are aware of the importance of saving energy and so to reduce the effects of climate change. Our proposal for a good education is to include a part of environmental education in kindergardens and schools. If children and young people grow in an atmosphere where the environmental friendliness and sustainable use of energy is part of their everyday life, they adopt it as part of their lifestyle and move it to future generations. Government could provide some financial support for those who are going to invest on sustainable energy resources and environmental friendly building solutions.
Creating a new neighborhood Our strategy to save energy by creating self-sufficient neighborhoods in Almere is no utopia because there are now a large number of houses built by their own self-sufficient owners. Currently there are 33 houses almost completely self-sufficient distributed throughout Almere. These houses were built by their owners own will to be free in regard to access to energy. The owners of these houses had to make a huge investment because the installation of this technology is elevated but less than 5-6 years are going to get the money and not have to pay higher bills to large companies by supplying them energy. This is more than enough evidence that there is willingness on the part of the population and we have to take this situation. In 2040 Almere want a more population and more jobs but neither can we forget that climate change is a fact and which from the an energy standpoint only thing we can do is save energya and promote sustainable energy sources.
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2.8 Recreation & leisure 2.8.1 Introduction to recreation & leisure Thinking about recreation and leisure, most people think about nice weather and holiday activities, like going to a theme park, swim, going out on a boat trip, et cetera. But also playing an instrument and doing sports are part of recreation and leisure. In Almere there are a lot of sports club and associations. However, in this chapter will be a focus on the outdoor activities, because of the indoor activities are not rare for Almere, football or tennis can be played in every city in The Netherlands.
Almere is a water city. It is not just below the sea level, it is also surrounded by water. A lot of water sports take place in the city, such as swimming, canoeing, navigating, windsurfing, sailing and fishing. There is a lot of forest around the water, therefore it is a lovely area to ride horse, walk and make a bicycle tour. In the surroundings of Almere there is a lot of space, which means a lot of events en festivals can be hold in the area.
In this chapter there is made an analysis first, afterwards some solutions are invented and finally there is made a conclusion.
2.8.2 Analyzing the problems In this table we have analyzed the recreation activities in Almere. In this table you see fifteen activities, behind those activities there are columns. These columns tell something about the influence of the weather on the recreation activities. With the aid of the columns we checked out if the weather had a positive or negative effect on the activities. We visualized the effects with the plus for the positive effects and minus for the negative effects.
In the table is also a ranking for the importance of the activities in Almere in relation with the climate change. The ranking is in different colors, the orange color boxes are the most important negative effects. The green boxes tell you what the most important positive effects are. The blue boxes are the four activities that are the most common and important in Almere.
Activities Extreme Dry Wetter Longer Hotter Colder Vegetation weather summer winter summer summer winters Ice skating - - - + Walking & riding - + - + - - + Bikes - + - + - - + Fishing - - - - Boats&kayak - + - + - - + Wind water sports - + - + + - Field sports - - - + - - Sports event - + - Festivals - + - Children farms - + - + - + Kids playground - + - + Camping - + + - + Swimming - - + + Diving - - - Parks - - + - - +
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Because of the climate change the average temperature will rise in de future, also the weather will get more extreme. More rain in a shorter period of time, and more violent storms. This does have effects on the recreation activities. You can tell that the most positive effect is the longer summer season to do outdoor recreation activities. The most negative effect is the increasing extreme weather. The bigger and heavier storms can cause danger to big outdoor events. Also more rain in a shorter period of time will be bad for the recreation activities.
The table provides a good overview of the effects of climate change and its main impact on the recreation activities but does not provide a complete picture. For the risk analyses the focus lay on the main impact which was rated as positive or negative but for nearly all climate change effects there is never just one but several aspects. For example, less rain in the summer season has a positive effect on the time people spend outdoors but at the same time it could lead to droughts that might have the opposite effect.
2.8.3 Possible solutions Focusing on the most interesting activities of Almere that will be affected by climate change, we describe the following ideas and solutions to adapt to these changes.
Bikes, riding and walking. Larger summer season is an opportunity to protect these activities against extreme weather, heat and wind because of the longer vegetation period.
In this situation, the proposed solutions will try to mitigate these effects using the vegetation.
● Creation of trees alley to protect people from sun, wind and soft rain. ● Put water sources along the routes. ● Provide people “covered bikes”. ● Improve the route pavement to make it resistant to heavy rain. ● Promote social web pages where people can meet buddies to ride, walk or bicycle.
Parks Parks activities also could be protected from hotter and drier summers and extreme weather (heavy rain, storm...) using the vegetation to make them more comfortable.
● Plantation of trees and plants for a continental climate: Pendunculate Oak (Quercus Robur). Elm (Ulmus minor). Field Maple (Acer Campestre). Fence of hornbeam (Carpinus betulus). Instead of the Beech (Fagus sylvatica), because the Hornbean has a bigger dry tolerance. ● Contruction of ecological infiltration system. ● Put water cranes in park. ● Creation of wooden pergolas with vegetation on it. ● Put roofs in playground parts. ● Pay attention to skin protection and enough drink.
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Festivals These activities could be affected especially by hotter weather and heavy rains or another kind of precipitations that make impossible to come to them.
● Preparation for extreme weather and to monitor the situation to protect people. ● Increase the number of selling points to sell bottles of water (to protect people from dehydration). ● Increase the number of tents with shade and put water ventilators. ● Provide people free hats and umbrellas to protect them against sun.
Conclusion Looking for the different kind of recreation there did not seem to be many weaknesses and threats in Almere, until the climate changes were involved. Through the analysis, it appeared that there are a lot of subjects that can be improved or even could be made better. Further there are made some possible solutions for the problems.
Right after drawing up the problems, it appeared a lot of solutions are actually applicable and feasible. Except for the water fountains in the park, they could cause some trouble. There are no water connections to connect the water fountains to the water system; this will need to be constructed. The costs of this can get high. If the costs are too high for the municipality of Almere, there can be thought off other kind of solutions, like putting more stands or other kind of water facilities.
Also it appeared that the climate change has a big effect on the recreation, but the other way around, the recreation will not affect the climate change too much, because off the kind of recreation that is taking place in Almere. There won’t be a possibility of creating a lot of new recreation, because the climate changes will not be that big. It came true that a lot of people in and the municipality of Almere are very happy with the actual recreation and leisure in the city, the task of the municipality is to maintain and keep the recreation that it will not go backwards.
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2.9 Adaptation capacity 2.9.1 Introduction to adaptation capacity Since the first days of our existence Mother Earth has taught us that in order to survive, one has to adapt. Almere region is a perfect example of this process, because imminent threat persists and actions need to be taken. Being one of the few lands in the world which are below sea level, Almere was built with the purpose of becoming a large and green area for people to live in. Recently, the world learned that our planet is changing its behavior, and so is the climate. For a region as vulnerable as Almere, this issue has to be mainly taken in consideration. Rising sea level and intensive rainfall, could lead to damaging floods and absence of fresh water in the region, which will make it insupportable to live. Besides the issues described above, we believe that the social aspect of this problem is vital because, it is the people that form the community of Almere, and the adaptation pathways are designed for them. Therefore, an analysis of the population structure will provide a better picture of the existing situation.
2.9.2 Analyzing the problems There are 190,000 people in Almere region, and plans are made by government of Holland to double this number within twenty to thirty years. The reason for that are the general growth of population in Holland, and the need of the local municipality to expand the city. Being not only a young city, Almere is also young in terms of population, one third of inhabitants consisting of families with children. Availability of houses and low prices on them, have attracted more low-to-middle class income citizens, therefore having a notable effect on the region’s reputation. It is also important to mention that unemployment here is 7,5%, and is higher compared to 6% in the entire country. In our research we came across several issues that need to be analyzed, in order to lower the vulnerability of the region due to the present climate change: Organization and policy making; Short term vs. Long term thinking; Social focus; Resistance to change; Effects of climate change on adaptation capacity.
A field research on the streets of Almere, interviewing inhabitants of different age, race and gender (see appendix), and relevant information from local experts helped us to better understand the importance and deepness of the above mentioned problems.
Organization and Policy making The government implements various projects expanding living areas in the country but at the same time keeps the “green heart” untouched. By 2030 Almere region, being the hottest place to construct, will have 60,000 new dwellings, despite the obvious multiple risks. This clear vision of the government, to create more living space, is not backed up by exact solutions for the climate change and its effects on the region. Minimum standards on construction are applied; therefore it can provide ideal conditions, together with low prices, and land availability, for construction of houses without special attention to sustainable principles and climate changes, which can also conduct to speculation and in decrease of adaptation capacity in term of this region.
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Short term vs. Long term thinking Unfortunately, the gift of foreseeing the future was not given to mankind; therefore we cannot predict the climate trend in time. That’s why is difficult to anticipate the effects of climate change on the population of this region. This issue is also combined with the short mandates of policy makers, that don’t want to act in long-term (in our case on climate change), but rather have a short-term thinking, focusing on reelection, and personal/professional development.
Social focus Because of many cultures present in Almere, the social integration is a complex one, and is hard to deal with. Government and other organizations struggle with communication and infiltration of minorities (20-25%) in society. There are no network channels that can provide good information flow to the minorities. It would be easy to think that in such a multicultural area social tensions exist, but none of the inhabitants, that we interviewed, mentioned them in their comments. Despite of being an area for ‘’low-income’’ class, 80% of the interviewed people like their life in Almere, pointing out many benefits of living here such as: easy going and quite. It is rather the stereotypes that form the reputation of Almere, but not the actual situation. Actions need to be taken, in order to promote the region and target more middle-to-upper class people to start their life in Almere. We believe that government needs to invest more in education, because educated people understand better, and use the information flow. 66% of the interviewed people have not heard of climate change effects in the region of Almere, most of them having general knowledge about global climate change. When better informed, people tend to adapt faster to changes, and the risk is lowered considerably.
Resistance to changes In our study we cannot miss out the behavior of people as individuals, because this way we can understand how they react to changes. Generally, humans tend to resist to anything that affects their lifestyle, therefore staying in their comfort zone. Unfortunately, the government does not provide motivation for such changes; furthermore people do not react to it.
Effects of climate change on adaptation capacity Adaptation process can be influenced by multiple factors, such as climate change. Because of unpredictable climate forecast there is no way to measure effects that climate change can have on adaptation process. Still, the government does notable actions, helping to a better transition. The promotion of durable & self-sustainable energy and houses, cheap loans on constructions, are some of the steps that government contributes to it.
2.9.3 Possible solutions Special focus needs to be put on society when formulating city policies. Society could be considered as the soul of a city, which is not constant but dynamically changing with time. The successful adaptation of Almere to the effects of climate change requires a strong society, not only a group of individuals but a real community. Like a healthy ecosystem is able to adapt easier to stress and changes so does a cooperative and active society deal with difficulties easier. Flexibility, a high willingness for change, mutual trust and smooth cooperation would be necessary which are not achievable on command, these need bottom-up initiatives and time. Almere as a
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Conclusion We tend to deal a lot with the technical aspects of the possible effects of climate change but less with the behavioral, sociological aspects. Nonetheless climate change poses a serious threat on everything we have had so far, what we have been used to. Our forecasts contain a lot of uncertainty concerning the probable outcomes, the scale and timing of this, so society should be prepared for the changes when they are due.
Appendix We interviewed 15 Almere inhabitants of different age, race and gender. Questions ranged from opinions about the city to facts and knowledge on effects of climate change in the region. The results are below. Why do you live Do you have a job here? here?
Born here Yes 19% Family 31% 25%
Work No 19% 13% Income/price 69% 13% Location
Do you like Almere? Do you know about climate change effects
13% on this region? Yes Yes No 34% No 87% 66%
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What do you miss in Almere?
Public Events 23% Safety on streets
8% Daily market 62% 8% Don't miss anything
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3 Part B: Adaptation Pathways
3.1 Almere & surroundings 3.1.1 Area description Almere is one of the youngest and fast-growing cities in the Netherlands. It has a special situation as it is average of 5 meters below sea level on the bottom of the former Zuider Zee. Almere is the biggest of the six municipalities in Flevoland and it’s growing importance is due to its optimal location close to Amsterdam and Utrecht. There are plans for merging North Holland, Utrecht and Flevoland provinces to create a powerful Randstad province.
3.1.2 Pathways In a municipality like Almere, climate change effects everything. That is why every part effecting the climate change should be taken into consideration. In this part of the report, a description on the adaptation pathways will be summarized with all the possible solutions on how to act on the changing climate.
Food security
Image 3.1.1: Food security.
The current policy on food security will not last forever. With the changing of the climate, more extreme weather will occur and the average temperature will probably rise with 2 degrees Celsius until 2050 and possibly with another 2 degrees until 2100. With this changing climate, the production of food will get into trouble. A first solution is to irrigate the crops in order to cool them of and give them enough water to grow. At one point this shall not be realistic anymore because of a lack of water and the change of the climate. At that point the crops which are grown there should be changed to another crop which is better suited to the given climate at that time. Even if this is not possible anymore, the agriculture should be relocated to another place which is suitable for the crops. Once the temperature rises about one degree, the food production will decline, at that point it is necessary to start importing more products in order to keep the availability of food stable. Perhaps, in the future, when the climate has changed in such a way that agriculture on normal soil is not productive anymore, it should be possible to build gigantic improved greenhouses which can be regulated in order to be able to keep growing the products which are grown right now. In the end, creating urban agriculture will help consumers getting more self-sufficient which will create a sustainable city.
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Energy
Image 3.1.2: Energy
People should get more aware of the usage of (unsustainable) energy in a normal way of life. Therefore education is needed in order to teach people about the effects of using too much energy. This, in combination with researching new, more sufficient machines will decrease the use of energy during the average day. Next to that, houses should become more isolated in order to save energy on getting the right temperature. It is also possible to make green energy cheaper including subsides to make it more popular while increasing the price on unsustainable energy. These will not work forever, it is not possible to keep increasing the prices on unsustainable energy, otherwise, people cannot afford it in the end. Probably the best solution is to build self-supporting houses which generate their own energy, this will be a life lasting solution in order to reduce the usage of energy.
Heat stress
Image 3.1.3: Heat stress.
With a rising temperature, not only the food security is in trouble. Heat stress will also be a serious problem. People die because of this heat stress because the city will be to warm especially for older persons. With an increase of 4 degrees until 2100, there is need for immediate action. More air- conditioning could be a short term solution. It decreases the temperature in houses but it will cost a lot of energy to make it work so it is no sustainable solution. More shade, wind, greenery and water should be introduced into the city to drop the temperature during the day. This will help right now, but in the future, when the temperature rises more than 3 degrees, other possibilities will be
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When the temperature rises more than 2 degrees, then it may be the best option to move older people outside the city or even to another climate in order to prevent an increase to the amount of deaths. This could be life lasting but it is hardly possible to replace every older person. There could be a radical solution to cover the city with a glass dome in order to create an environment like in a greenhouse. In this glass dome it is possible to regulate the climate inside in order to prevent the heat stress. The vision is very farfetched but it will prove to be a life-lasting solution to the heat stress.
Flood safety
Image 3.1.4: Flood safety.
Due to the climate change, the seawater level is rising. In order to prevent the province -including , Almere- from flooding, measurements must be taken. It could be possible to raise the water level of the IJsselmeer. This will still be possible to discharge the water by using gravity but the effects on raising the water level will be huge. Not only should the water level be raised but also the river IJssel should be raised, this means every dike bordering either the river or the lake will have to be modified. This will be an extreme change on the water system and at one point, it will become impossible to realise these changes. Making dikes bordering the sea bigger will prove to be a better solution, the changes will not be as big as raising the water level but at one point, this will also be a problem when the water level rises too much. We could also try to keep pumping out all the extra water which arrives from the IJssel. This will be a solution which will be able to last for a very long time. It will cost a lot of energy and will not be very sustainable, it does prove to be a solution that has to be used until new methods like floating cities are invented. Creating a floating city will solve every problem due to flooding.
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Mobility
Image 3.1.5: Mobility.
Due to growing CO2 emissions and the shortage of resources, new kinds of energy sources and mobility are required. For reducing CO2 emissions there should be a possibility to carpooling and using public transportation. Another system which is easy to implement is a taxation system in which the driven kilometres are taxed, then you stimulate the people to drive as little as possible. Electric transportation should be supported. The energy sources for that should be renewable, like wind or solar energy. Biogas which is produced from wastewater and waste, like wood residues or manure, is
a sustainable way of producing energy. The CO2 levels for these energy sources are less than conventional energy sources. In regulation there should be a requirement for more efficient and less polluting engines. Growing traffic on the existing A6 motorway would only be acceptable if only the so-called green cars were driving there.
Image 3.1.6: People’s health.
With the growing population and mobility, there would be problems with air pollution in the city and people’s health would be affected. The less sustainable solutions for problems caused by air pollution are medicine and air-filtering masks. When the deaths caused by poor air quality are increased people should stay at home or even move out of the city. More sustainable way for reducing air pollution is filtering the air through vegetation in the city by green rooftops and green areas. Also artificial rain could be used to separate the toxic particles.
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Water nuisance
Image 3.1.7: Water nuisance.
Due to climate change there will be problems with increase in extreme rainfall which will not be distributed evenly throughout the year. The Dutch policy is already dealing with this kind of problems as they are aware of the risks. Wadi in the villages, extra water storages and pump stations are already implemented, but the capacity of them should be increased if the water level continues rising. More innovative and futuristic idea is to make the whole city floating but we have not yet reached the required level in technology and the financial feasibility of this solution would also be a question.
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3.2 Almere Haven The purpose of this study is to identify the impact that climate change has on the Almere region, with regional focus on Almere Haven, and to develop proposals that mitigate the effects of climate change on the lifestyle of the residents. The analyses and proposals are done in the context of a general development plan of Almere as a young city of the Netherlands that is planned to expand and further consolidate its position as a very attractive living environment. Almere Haven sets special challenges as it is the oldest part of Almere, with a specific set-up that needs to adapt to the current standards of sustainability.
3.2.1 Area description Almere is a planned city and municipality in the province of Flevoland, the Netherlands, bordering Lelystad and Zeewolde. The municipality of Almere comprises the districts Almere Stad, Almere Haven, Almere Buiten, Almere Hout, Almere Poort and Almere Pampus. But our case of study is Almere Haven (Figure 1).
Figure 1 - Map of Almere Haven
Almere Haven is the oldest part of Almere, with 22 266 inhabitants. This part of the city features the most idealistic architecture in Almere, because the goal was to build a model city on the newly reclaimed land of Flevoland. Nowadays, all housing developments are built to provide views of greenery and open spaces, and each group of houses is clustered around a little park, usually with easy access to the surrounding forests, so residents of Almere Haven do not have the sense of living in a crowded urban area.
The main features of Almere Haven is that has a small harbour with ferry connections to the Dutch mainland, and is surrounded by large forests of poplars containing buzzards, foxes, small deer, and owls. Other important and problematic aspect is that doesn´t have its own railway station, but is it’s well-connected to Amsterdam and the rest of Almere by a good and rapid bus transit system. 3.2.2 Pathways As the oldest inhabited part of Almere, the development of the region during 70´s was made without the anticipation of some of the contemporary factors that define the concepts of sustainable development. At the same time, building of a large population city from the grounds up in a matter of years is significantly different from the slow evolution of a city through a larger period of time. Such is the case that even though the current strategy for the developing of the wider Almere region has the focus on other areas such as Almere Center as a metropolitan nucleus and cultural heart of the city, Almere Oosterwold that will provide low density space for individual living and working ideals along with organic growth, Almere IJland to use the opportunity of ecological recovery of the
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Markermeer and the new IJmeer line, Almere Haven still needs to follow a strategy for a sustainable future according to today’s standards.
With an estimated population of about 22.000 inhabitants, the area of Almere Haven could do much to accommodate part of the extra 160.000 people that are desired to reach the 350.000 threshold suggested by the strategic vision for Almere 2.0. This could be done by simply fully utilizing the existing real estate without the need of new residential projects. To fulfill this objective there are several key points that need to be addressed.
The first one is related to the way in which the city connects with the rest of Almere and to the most significant destinations in this area of the Netherlands such as Amsterdam or Utrecht. While there already is a comprehensive and efficient system of bus lines that connect Almere Haven with the surrounding areas, and there is access to the motorway, there is still a lot of fragmentation, there is no train station and the city feels disconnected from the newer parts of Almere.
The mobility strategy regarding new infrastructure projects such as a train line that adds Almere Haven as a connection which would in return increase the mobility options and would increase the level of attractiveness. The first step would be a new bus connection with already existent train station Almere Muziekwijk. Due to the high costs of investment of a completely new train line project, a cost-benefit analysis is a very important tool to determine whether it would be justified or not. Also this would add urbanization pressure that could be different from the desired development pathway for the wider Almere region. The tipping point (Figure 2) for the population problem would be the full utilization of the current built area, with the option of further sacrificing green area to expand housing or maintain the current layout and just focus on developing new residential sectors in other parts of the polder. The focus for Almere Haven, unlike the metropolitan center which is envisioned as a high density area, is to remain a compact and quiet part of the region so intensive expansion is not part of the current policies.
The second one is related to the underlying economic flows that are characteristic to the area. Because Almere Haven feels like an independent town, its economic profile is not enough to attract more people hence the over availability of vacant real estate can Figure 2 - Timescale be explained. Whether the policy will encourage the further development to be in the direction of a more independent nucleus or just a residential suburb without a strong economy of its own remains to be decided after taking into account the whole development scheme.
A possible solution to this would be an opening a water sport club, for example a Sailing Club for small leisure boats. This would employ only a small surface of land for boat storage and maintenance
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area while offering leisure activities to locals and tourists alike, would increase in leisure and entertainment activities that reside here with a positive effect on the economy of the area as well as increase in overall standard of living. This area already has a more developed touristic profile so the existing harbor infrastructure and the beaches in Almere haven could be expanded by enable organizing annual events and would increase the income of the area with a very small investment. Traffic patterns in the Gooimeer must be analyzed to assess the feasibility of this plan. The existing connections offer limited options for transport as the Huizen line has been closed due to low financial feasibility and other boats are intended for touristic purposes. Another area that can be improved as a direct response to changes in the climate is the water management. As the trend of more uneven rain behavior continues and is aggravated yearly, there are several steps that can be ensued to provide an improved system for dealing with excess water or with water storages. Modifying existing infrastructures to add water retaining features can be done without the need for large scale investments and such action would improve water quality and control. This would complement the already complex pumping systems employed for the water management system.
Because of the limited possibilities for landscaping architecture, natural water and wind erosion of the closed areas surrounding the dike and little employment of protective vegetation, residents of Almere Haven have the discomfort of very strong winds, both during the winter and the summer. As the dikes surrounding Almere Haven are not built on, it might be a good strategy to add layers of vegetation and stones that will act as a shield against the water erosion. Such additions can improve other aspect of the lifestyle as well, such as more diverse living environments, and improved leisure areas. Another possibility to protect the dikes is to join the chemical materials directly to the superficial soil of the dike to make it more compact and resistible against the erosion. To protect the open area between the dike and the urban area is possible to plant high vegetation barrier, but with the enough distance from the dike to don’t damage it by roots. The short term solutions of the rising water level of the lake are to implement flexible anti-flood walls on the dike, which can be also used in the urban area in the case of emergency situations. The long term solutions would be making higher the dike by terrain modifications in the shape of stairs to make it more stable against the wind erosion. This solution is more available in this dike because no constructions are here. Nowadays the forests consist mostly out of only a few different tree and plant species, like the poplar. To increase the ecological value and biodiversity, the composition of the forests and natural area has to be changed. Several areas of forest can be replanted with different kind of trees and vegetation to create a more diverse landscape. For example unique wetlands can be created, or a higher area as an escape route for the fauna.
The houses are one of the oldest of Almere and are generally poor isolated and sustainable. In order to maintain a neighbourhood that is safe and liveable, but also climate proof, measurements have to be taken sooner or later. One option is to demolish parts of the neighbourhood and rebuild them bit by bit, however this would cost a lot of money. The other option is to renovate the houses and to financially support the inhabitants doing so. This would save a lot of money and it would keep the old characteristics of the neighbourhood. If there is no more room for future expansion on the land, new homes can be built on the water and in trees. So instead of building houses on a traditional way, floating houses are a great way of building climate proof homes. It is highly unlikely to have a rising water level in Almere in the near future because the Markermeer and IJsselmeer are not directly connected to the sea, but if in the further future the water level does rise it is no problem for these houses.
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In order to prevent heat stress and water nuisance as well, green roofs are a good solution. On a hot summer day a normal flat roof can get a temperature around 80 degrees. A green roof will be almost the same temperature of the environment and will not contribute to the city temperature. A green roof also can be used as a water buffer to collect rainwater. Not only taking measurements to adapt to climate change is enough, also raising awareness amongst the inhabitants is important. The promotion of the awareness about climate change could be possible trough workshops, public lectures, newsletter, art about climate change and create a sustainable centre in Almere-Haven. The sustainable centre can provide information and sustainable action plans for the community, but also outdoor activities that can create more social cohesion between the inhabitants.
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3.3 Almere city south 3.3.1 Area description The research areas that belong to part B are the south of the city centre and the neighbourhoods Filmwijk, Literatuurwijk and Stedenwijk.
Image 3.3.1: The area
In the city centre there are mostly shops. Above from the shops there are housing possibilities. In the other three neighbourhoods living is the main goal. Moreover, every neighbourhood has their own facilities, like schools, supermarkets and sport facilities.
Stedenwijk was the first neighbourhood which was built just after Almere Haven was finished. In the 90er Filmwijk in the eastern part of the city was built. In 1997 the Literatuurwijk was created and the city grew in the western part of Almere. The three neighbourhoods compared, the Stedenwijk has the smallest houses and smallest spaces. The Literatuurwijk has more single-family dwellings, just as the Filmwijk, except the Filmwijk is less spatial.
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3.3.2 Pathways For a good view on the used tipping points in combination with the pathways, there is a table made, displayed down here. The black boxes show the scenario’s, the green balloons show the tipping points.
Image 3.3.2: Pathways and tipping points
Adaptation Capacity The table starts in present, 2013. There is expected a growth of the population. The first thing that will take place is the Floriade in 2022. The old fashion Floriade had just a green and ecological appearance, the Floriade with new ideas will also have an ecological and climate friendly meaning. That means that it is not necessary to create a whole new city centre at the other side of the municipality. It would be better to use this money to make the old city greener. But that concerns not only the colour green. It needs more innovative and creative ideas like green roofs or vertical greening and also the energy use should be more renewable. The whole project should be organized together with the neighbourhoods, that will support the communication between the municipality and the people of Almere. Because of this good communication the communities in neighbourhoods will cooperate with the government. The first and second generation born in Almere will be grown up and they will feel more responsible for the city and they will identify themselves with each other and Almere, more than the people before who just moved into the city some years before. The new generation will create their own Almere because of the higher motivation to change the city where they were born.
Energy and heat stress When the prices for energy increase at this point it will become more important to use renewable energy. That means for the observed area to use more solar panels and innovative constructions with more place for panels. Furthermore free parking zones for electrical cars could be offered where the cars can be recharged. This, together with the renewable energy will lead to more independence of the city. At this point the purchasing power could increase and two ways are possible. On the one hand the municipality and the government can give supports to the population, on the other hand the people have to find other ways to get cheap food. For example they will start with urban gardening and they also will use food from the forest. The municipality should support them at this point. It is also possible that the neighbourhoods will start to share food and clothes in small communities. This way it is possible to create a new green city, try to make a climate proof city prepared for climate changes with a lot of solar panels, green roofs and urban gardening.
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3.4 Almere city north 3.4.1 Area description The C-section of the Almere region represents a large part of the total urban area in Almere. A significant percentage of this C-section consists of housing and industrial areas. The Queen Beatrix park and the Bos der Onverzettelijken park are green areas and there also is a lake named Leeghwaterplas. This region is the oldest part of Almere city and it was built in 1978. The neighbourhoods are named Muziekwijk, Kruidenwijk, Verzetswijk, Tussen de Vaarden and Waterwijk. The picture below shows the entire Almere region with in-between the red lines the C-section.
Image 3.4.1: Map of the area
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3.4.2 Pathways When analyses was done it was necessary to decide which issues are the most important ones for this area and pay attention to them. There are four major subjects for this area: parks, lake, urban areas, and mobility.
Image 3.4.2: Adaptation pathways for the most current issues of the area.
Parks The goal is to establish solid plant cover with good climate adaptation abilities.
The current plant cover is composed of two major species: Populus sp. and Fraxinus excelsior. These species have good adaptation abilities, but their life time period is short. The current trees are already 20 years old and are likely to collapse in 30 – 40 years. To prevent complete collapse of vegetation cover it is necessary to take action in 20 years maximum. The best solution pathway starts with cutting down the oldest trees to avoid their uncontrolled collapse. It will protect younger specimen from damage. This action should prolong their estimated
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lifetime period by 5 years or more. This action gives us more time to gather financial resources and to make plans for the next step. The next step to be taken to keep the plant cover solid is planting new species with longer life time period and good climate adaptation abilities. There is a good source of inspiration within lowlands river plant societies in the rest of Europe. The final step to establish solid long-lasting climate proof plant cover is to develop a plant cover containing diverse plant sorts of variable age. This plant cover can exist for a long time period with efficient maintenance.
Water quality The goal is to improve water quality and keep it good for the future despite of the effects of climate change. The current situation is not ready to compete with the upcoming climate changes. The estimated tipping point is found about 2050 due to increasing temperatures and water pollution. It is inevitable to remove and to keep garbage out of the water and the shore line. Extension of helophyte filters will improve the water quality as well. There are plenty possible locations for helophyte filters, especially where steep shore lines will be rebuilt into gradual descending slopes. With increasing temperatures the water will need to move more to cool down and to avoid the blue- algae growth. Water circulation should be reinforced by increasing current pumping capacity. These solutions will become ineffective by 2075 due to further increase of temperatures. Therefore another additional step has to be taken. This step contains deepening of the lake by 2,5 meters. This should be efficient enough to keep good water quality until 2100 and maybe more.
Mobility The goal is to establish clean transportation system.
Because of the expected rise of the oil price it is necessary to develop new infrastructures for mobility. Fewer residents will be able to afford driving their own car and will depend on a good public transportation network. Additionally, the air quality will be improved by the decrease of fuel-running vehicles and no longer needed parking spaces can be unsealed and planted and increase the air quality even more. By 2040, only public transportation should be allowed to enter the residential areas. By 2060, only clean transportations – public as well as private - that are running on renewable energies should be allowed in the residential areas.
Urban areas The goal is to establish comfortable and climate change adapted neighbourhood.
To improve the water infiltration and reduce the heat accumulation in the streets, in 2040 it will be necessary to decrease the amount of sealed ground and to develop a sustainable sewage system. In 2060 the development focus should lay on the water infrastructures. More drinking water fountains should be installed and water ways for boats, kayaks, etc should be built. In 2090 a “naked festival” could be organized were the citizens adapt to the higher temperatures in summer by wearing less clothes. The final adaptation should be to white wash all houses of the neighborhood to keep it cool by increasing the solar radiation reflection.
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3.5 Almere Noorderplassen 3.5.1 Area description History and current situation
This project is about the western part of the Almere Buiten which is a district in the municipality of Almere in the Dutch province of Flevoland. The managers are going to find out the pathways for the effects which caused by the climate change. The major area is the black circle which includes Noorderplassen and the natural area of the western part of the Almere Buiten.
Image 3.5.1: Map of the area 4D
Almere Buiten is a district in the young municipality of Almere in the Dutch province of Flevoland. The district houses 49.552 (2006) residents. The first houses in Almere's third district were completed in the 1976. From the beginning, Almere committed itself to sustainable development, and it now has the aim of doubling in size to 350,000 people by 2030 in a sustainable way. To generate diversity, the individual neighborhoods’ were built using a thematic approach. Colors, for instance, are the central theme of the 'rainbow district' (Regenboogbuurt), whereas the 'seasonal district' (Seizoenenbuurt) reflects its woodland surroundings.
Moreover, Noorderplassen is a unique area a wealth to nature and water. The district exists from two parts. The east is between the High Ring and the Noorderplassen, which is built in the 1990s. The west is a new part of Almere, and the first residents of Noorderplassen West moved into their house at around 2000. But there are abundant buildings in this district now. Since 2012, there is also a supermarket, primary schools, a pharmacy and a health center in this district. The Noorderplassen-West is a energy-rich district of Almere. The sun’s energy plays the main role. There’s a solar island with the solar collecters which supplies the warm water to nearly 3,000 homes. And schools and buidings will be equipped by solar panels. The energy-rich district is superisingly versatile for both young and old. Besides the energy-rich feel, the new district offers water-filled and leafy surroundings. Beautifully set between the lakes IJmeer/Markermeer, the Lepelaarplassen wetland, lake Noorderplassen and the forest of Pampushout. The district is characterized by
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unexpected encounters with nature for young and old. The intimate relationship with water offers unique year-round opportunities to enjoy the tranquility, space and nature in the district.
Image 3.5.2: Detailed map of the Noorderplassen
cRRescendo
“Combined Rational and Renewable Energy Strategies in Cities, for Existing and New Dwellings to ensure Optimal quality of life”
cRRescendo is an European project that supported also the development of Noorderplassen-West. At the cRRescendo project’s objectives is a focus on ways to integrate measures for an increase in the use of renewable energy sources with measures for energy efficiency.
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3.5.2 Pathways
Water nuissance In case of heavy rain the ground might not have sufficient absorption capacity, which could lead to the flooding of streets/roads and also the gardens. The houses can be in trouble, so we should find some solutions for this problem. To increase this capacity we can create more grass surfaces around the streets making the sides of streets permeable. We can improve the absorption capacity also by creating the groves between fields. When a lot of rainwater arrives in a short time, it is necessary to drainage it. Because of the heavy rainfalls, the water level can increase, and floating houses can be a good solution to the problems. We can protect our life, if new techniques are used in the architecture (for example pile houses). The rainwater can be used later, if rainwater collectors are building. If there are no other opportunities, the last solution is moving/the migration.
Water quality One of the problems that can be caused by climate change in this area is the negative affect on the water quality. The increase of the temprature of the water might be a reason as well as a higher rate of eutrophicaton what causes less oxygen the water. The biggest problem that could be caused is the appearance of blue algea, what is not such a great problem for the studied area. The upcoming problems can cause illness of people and animals as well as endanger the local vegetation. Concerning the mentioned problems measurable tipping points can be set up. One pathway could be in implementing a research programm for finding indicator species to do monitoring on the area. Another pathway is to provide a circulation system in the water to get oxygen in the water during the upcoming hot periods caused by climate change. Organic urban farming is another solution because it reduces the nitrogen in the ground as well as the nitrogen in the air. Enviromental campaigns can always be designed when there is a typical topic for which more awareness of the people is needed.
Raising carbon dioxide
The problem caused by the climate change is raising CO2 and more sunny days. It will cause more serious situation about global warming and acid rain. There is also greenhouse effect, and will bring new species of diseases. To solve this problem, we plan to build more wind mills to decrease the amount of CO2. And build more solar panels and seasonal storage systems to improve the efficiency of the energy. Besides, we will plan to build the sustainable eco-houses and recycle systems, which can save more energy.
Heavy storms causing higher waves The climate change allows for heavier and more frequent storms, which means more wind. Strong winds cause high waves and impoundment. High waves are dangerous for dikes. The waves must be broken before the wave reaches the dike, so that the wave makes less damage to the dike. A solution to the wave breaking is a Geotubes. Geotubes can put sand into his pockets, and sometimes overgrown with plants that are on the bottom and top of the water and come out as the wave breaking.
Another solution is planting a Griendbos around the coastline. A griendbos is a forest that is partially in the water and reduced the power of the wave.
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Image 3.5.3: Geotubes Increase of population Almere is a relatively young city. At the moment there are living 195,000 people in Almere. The city is still growing. The government aims to the increase of the population to 350,000 inhabitants. The main reason for this is to reduce the pressure within the Randstad. Almere has limitations of space and is centrally located. To meet the requirement of the government, they should realize more homes. It is important to keep the climate change in mind.
Because of the increase of the population there should be built more houses which must all be fitted with energy. It must be designed homes that are resistant to climate change. Also, there will be more food to be produced.
Floating houses
The area is characterized by lakes and nature reserves. To make use of this quality, floating homes could be built in the Noordenplassen. It is adapted to the environment and not vice versa. Floating homes offer a solution to flooding because it adapts to the water. The floating houses can be equipped with green roofs to fit into the environment but it also has an insulating effect which helps to reduce the CO2.
Image 3.5.4: Floating houses
With an eye to the future, it is important that the houses are sustainably designed. For example, it can gain sustainable energy in the area for use of the dwellings.
Production capacity Production capacity is extremely important for food safety of the habitants and for the regional economy. The decreasing of the production capacity can have various causes: climate-related causes, the production process, as well as economic reasons (and the financial and economic crisis is a case in point). The pathways for increase the production capacity could be the creation of spaces for urban gardening by separating pampus into different areas and also the developing of a support new and existing business program through a municipal investment fund or by creating a small business incubator.
Purchasing power Purchasing power of the population is also a very important indicator for the local economy because it indicates the level of income and quality of life. A low value of purchasing power may indicate both low-income of customers and also significant price increases. In both cases, low purchasing power can endanger food security and local food industry and agriculture. The pathways for increase the
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IP COURSE ACCE 2013 Climate change in the Almere Region purchasing power could be the also the creation of spaces for urban gardening. The stakeholders should try to develop the business environment in order to create a stable and strong local economy, which can be accomplished through support business programs. Also through a positive-aggressive promotion campaign the municipality can attract investors and tourists or even future habitants.
3.6 Almere De Vaart 3.6.1 Area description This area is located in the north eastern part of Almere next to the Oostvaardersplassen. It can be divided into 3 main groups of functions: Greenhouses, Industrial area and Nature. There are about 75 industrial buildings in the area which are all clustered in the south western part. In the eastern part you can find the greenhouses and the nature is shattered all around. There are also some big channels that run through the area.
Image 3.6.1: Map of Almere de Vaart 3.6.2 Pathways The chosen themes for this area are: energy, food security, heat stress and water nuisance. In this chapter we will discuss the possibility of each theme that will create a new pathway.
Energy Our vision in the Almere region is that the industrial and the glasshouses have to reduce their own energy; sustainable energy. There are 74 industrial buildings/operatives, 45 glasshouses and 20 houses which all need energy and to keep their production going.
The Government changes vision on emissions and the use of sustainable energy. Image 3.6.2: Use of sustainable energy in the future Regular energy prizes are going higher (increase). Wind mails are polluting the horizon.
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Energy solutions Solar panels on the roofs. Wind mills in the area. Biomass factory Glasshouses make a lot green waste and it can be using to make bioenergy. Bio-energy can use to heating greenhouses in winter and cooling down in the summer. Types of renewable energy (Electricity, heating and cooling, biofuels)
Tabel 3.6.1: Use of sustainable energy: Point of view Europe policy The European Commision’s renewable energy directive to source 15% of its overall energy from renewable sources by 2020. Current police Government has target 2020 14% of energy has to be sustainable energy Change of vision Government change their mind about sustainable energy , change to law using sustainable energy Energy price Regular energy prizes are going higher (increase), government put taxes for energy
Food security The function of the “De Vaart” region is clearly for industrial purpose, and will probably stay the same in the next hundred years. Because of great agricultural capacity, one of our main tipping points for this region is food security. Currently, there are many high-tech greenhouses situated in the east side of De Vaart, where mostly flowers are planted.
Looking at one hundred years in the future, Almere needs to be sustainable in terms of food security, meaning a greater use of local food, and we strongly believe that the De Vaart region can be of great use for this goal. The increase of population in Almere region (60,000 new dwelling by 2030) and the increasing prices on imported food motivate us to look for more local solutions. The green houses have great production capacity and will be self- sustainable in the near future; therefore they should be taken in consideration by the municipality of Almere. Image 3.6.3: Food security
We propose a cooperation between the municipality and green house owners, a cooperation which would benefit both sides. Because of severe climate changes in the future, we cannot predict the supply of food in this region; therefore we need to come up with alternative plans in case of food shortage. Green house owners will have to grow crops on a portion of their land, and will sell the products to local markets. The local products will be also cheaper, which will meet the needs of local
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IP COURSE ACCE 2013 Climate change in the Almere Region inhabitants (Low-income class is predominant in Almere). Currently, there exists local food production in the area, but the amount is small, and most of it is for export. The near graph represents two different ways that region of Almere can choose in terms of food security. By using green houses for local food production, the supply and demand will come to an equilibrium, which means that Almere region will not depend on the outside world when it comes to food.
Water nuisance and heat stress
Due to climate change heavy rains are going to act. The annual rainfall will fall from the same time, however this amount must be returned during the year. therefore, this precipitate should be collected in tanks, which later, the plants are irrigated. due to the temperature rise also increases the evaporation, loss of water will be greater therefore the tanks must be covered or lowered into the ground at large surfaces the heavy rainfall stick in the mug / cannot seeping need to improve sanitation
The greenhouses essentially serve as prolongation of the growing season. Due to the climate change the weather becomes two seasons, spring and autumn disappeared, only one cold and one hot season replaces the four seasons.
Due to the temperature rises: more energy is required to cool the greenhouses
openable, movable walls and roofs
use of drought tolerant crops
roofs with reflective material (shielding)
in extreme cases greenhouses will not be needed/ need to be removed
appearance of tropical climate tolerant plant pathogens
Point of view to the future We strongly believe that De Vaart region will not change its function in the next 100 years. It will remain heavily industrialized, with more self-sustainable green houses. The location of the region is very advantageous for the big companies that have established here, therefore they will also contribute to the development of this region. Most greenhouses will expand further on. It will also be arranged for food security reasons, and the municipality of Almere will have the whole region on sight. Therefore De Vaart will become a very important area on the map of Almere
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3.7 Almere Buiten 3.7.1 Area description Almere Buiten is a green area with 55.000 inhabitants. In Almere Buiten are forests, parcs en fields for recreation and leisure for people from every age. A beautiful place of Almere Buiten are the Oostvaardersplassen on the edge of the area. A lot of tourists come here to watch and enjoy. In Almere Buiten you can also find neighborhoods with special architecture, sport, relax places en culture. Also the shopping center Doe-Mare is interesting to visit.
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3.7.2 Pathways In this paragraph will be told about the problems of climate change and the solutions to prepare Almere Buiten against the climate change. There will be told about eight topics who are very important for the future of Almere Buiten.
Image 3.7.2: Time-action scale
Flood Safety In the future the water level of the seas, rivers and canals will rise. Scientists expect that the ice from the north pole and the south pole will warm up. This is a continuing process, what means that the water level will keep rising. The second problem is that scientists expect that the rains will be 25% more intensive in 2050 than they are now. This means that Almere have to manage all the water in a right way to keep all the people in safe. It is important to make people aware of the influences of the climate change. People do not think there will be a flooding because the protecting of the dikes are good and people have not ever thought about what to do in case of a flooding. The warning of the people have to start right now Periodically, in every 20 years and lasts also for 5 years, from this time til 2100, then from 2045, 2065, and 2085 to prepare everybody for the problems of climate change. A lot of different ways could be used for that, like news, newspapers, folders, the internet and so on. Another important thing is to keep higher up the dikes until it is needed (2100), to control the dikes and perhaps build new dikes to protect the people in Almere Buiten. This is a task of the waterboard. In cooperation with the government it is possible to make plans for the future for watercontrol. An innovation for the future will be to build a new road or railroad over sea level-the work can start in 2080. In case of flooding there will always be an opportunity to escape from the city and get out to a save place.
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Mobility In the future there will be more people in Almere Buiten and there could exist some problems on the different transportation ways. It is also important that people are now trying, and still will in the
future, to decrease the emission of CO2. To decrease the emission of CO2 there could be a promotion of using bicycles instead of a car. In Almere Buiten they could be start from now til 2040 with a project to promote the realization of bicycle rentals and reduce the price of renting a bike. Because of the possible traffic problems the existing ways have to be improved. Not only just the highways and the railroad, but also the transportation by water. From 2040 new transportation ways could be built until 2070. It is possible to improve the Lage Vaart for the traffic on the water, which can start in 2030 and finished in 2050.
Heat stress The expectations for the future are that the temperature will rise. It will be slowly but in 2050 the temperature could be higher by three or four degrees. This will bring a lot of problems. Luckily there are always some solutions to solve the problems a bit. The CO2-emission have to be as low as possible to save the atmosphere and slow down the rise of the temperature on earth. This is possible by strict rules from the government in Almere Buiten there have to be rules of the community of Almere. If the temperature rises there will be problems with the water supply for the agricultural sector. By improving the irrigation systems, which could happen between 2025 and 2045, the farmers could solve the most of the problems. Also for the city is a better irrigation system needed. In the city there are also a lot of plants and green areas which need more water. Green areas are also a solution against the heat stress in the future. By realization of green areas there will be more evatransporation and they also ensure shadows. For this reason from 2025 until 2045 trees are needed to be plant. This is necessary for plants and people to keep the temperature down.
Water nuisance In water nuisance pumping out the water from the area still can be a solution in the future, until it is needed, even until 2100. Another idea is to increase the canal storage by decreasing the steepness of the bank of the canal. It is beneficial not only for the water storage but also for the ecosystems by giving more area for the transition. More green areas could also help by increasing the evaporation. These solutions mentioned above could work from this year. The receptivity of the canals may not be increased after 2030, although more green areas can be evolved until 2040. After, water storaged on the roofs could be an active practice until 2100.
Recreation and leisure In the future there still have to be recreation and leisure. To keep this in the future there have to be some changes in Almere Buiten. The same as by the transportation, the bicycle rentals could be useful for recreation and leisure. The bicycle rentals will be used for more things en themes than just one. By heat stress was told about green areas. Also here is a double function of the green areas. Green areas are not only for evatransportation and shadow, but could also can be used by people for recreation and leisure.
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As a solution for the future could be nice to create a natural swimming lake close to the railway of Almere Buiten between 2030 and 2050.
Energy In the question of energy: renewable energy and a smart use of this energy is needed. Until 2100 this solution need to put into practice, after start this activities as soon as possible, because it is a sustainable way. In paralel, the raising of awareness of the local people is also needed, periodically, after the results of the indicator counting, so in every 20 years and lasts also for 5 years, from this time til 2020, then from 2045, 2065, and 2085.
Ecology For the ecological problems adaptable species will the only existing components of the flora and the fauna. These species are necessary to be used also in agriculture from this time. Almere Buiten need to create an ecological corridor for these species from 2020 till 2040, to give the chance for these species to find their living conditions and to spread out. Indicator counting is also necessary to help in predicting the future and changing our solution plans according to what will happen in the future. This so called „indicator species counting” should be periodically in every 20 years, and lasts up to 5 years.
Food security In the future problems could be in connection with the food supply in the area. Some products can only be made by special conditions and because the conditions are going to change it could be hard. For this developing the agriculture in needed from this time until it is necessary. It is necessary to keep developing the agriculture with new machines en techniques to produce enough food. When all the things come together, it is perhaps possible to develop a closed local food system to be sure of enough food in case of flooding or extreme heat it could be good to have a well-functioning local food system. The realization of this could happen in the city centre, from 2050, and if it must work correctly, until 2100. Another idea is to create greenhouses in the eastern part of the area from 2020 til 2050. In greenhouses people can regulate the conditions what makes it possible to produce a lot of different kinds of products.
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3.8 Almere Hout 3.8.1 Area description Almere, as a model of poly-nuclear city, is developing on economy, culture and social terms ecology sustainability. In the future, there will be more rural growth and organic inspiration in Almere Hout. As a result, the goal of project is going to shape a green village which is basic on sustainable and ecological development, and it is in the pursuit of secure food production, reasonable residence, education as well as interesting recreation, besides, the usage of renewable energy is also increasing gradually in Almere Hout.
Additionally, Almere Oosterwold which is large area in the east of Almere Hout offers room for up to 18,000 new homes and a variety of functions such as business and retail centers. It will be developed following individual and collective initiatives, from small to large scale, with plots that are always surrounded by nature development, urban agriculture or local parks. The area will reserve areas for future development after 2030.
There are several tipping points which need to be considered according to the developing plan of Almere Hout in order to decrease the effect caused to climate change, the application of energy, the changes of temperature, the changes of water level, salinization as well as drought. Accordingly, the a variety of solutions should be come up with regarding these tipping points, such as exploitation of renewable energy, changes of land use, improvement of water quality, the raise of green areas, etc.
3.8.2 Pathways Intense short rains The groundwater level is now around 1 meter below the soil level. If the groundwater level is around 0.4 meter below the soil level, then the waterboard has to improve the drainage system (new drains and wider canals and new wadi’s). Because there’s too much water in the ground and that is not good for the crops of the farmers. Especially the potatoes can’t stand the amount of water and will rotten.
Image 3.8.1: Rains in the future
Drought If the groundwater level will be below the suction power of the crop, the plant would die. When the groundwater level drops 0.5 meter, there have to be taken action. The solution of this problem is increasing the groundwater level. First discuss with the waterboard. There are several solutions, like: Close the weirs
Use wadi’s for water storage during/after rainfall
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Reusing water from the streets and the drains
Pump water back into the region.
Image 3.8.2: Drought in the future
Temperature One of the problems is the rising temperature, this due to the increasing CO2 emission from the cars and factories. The amount of CO2 have to decrease otherwise the temperature will rise(in 2100) between 2.4 and 6.4 degrees Celsius. If we find a solution and we adjust the solutions, the temperature will rise between1.1 and 2.9 degrees (in 2100). If the temperature has increased with 1 degree Celsius in 2020 then the municipality has to make sure that 30 % of the area consist of green vegetation, this is the first tipping point. When the temperature rise with 2 degrees Celsius in 2050 the municipality have to make sure that 40% off the area consists of green vegetation so the CO2 will decrease 35%.
If the temperature will rise with two degrees until 2020, the next problems will probably rise. More algae’s, because of stagnant water Soil get dry easily (high evaporation) Decrease of recreation (consequence of algae and mosquitoes) To solve these problems the green area’s will be increased with 30%. Furthermore electric transport will be supported.
Image 3.8.3: Temperature in the future
Energy The new houses that are going to be build will have a high isolation standard and will use renewable energy (e.g. solar systems). The houses will be cooled and heated by cold and warm water storage. At the end of 2100 85% of the energy will be green energy (e.g. windmills). To save energy, stores will
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be built in the area, so people don’t need to drive that far. Furthermore there will be a new electric tram connection to Almere Central. Also electric cars will be supported.
Salinization A big problem all over the Netherlands is the amount of salt water from the sea that moves through from the coast too the land. Deep in the ground, the saltwater flows and tries to interfere with the fresh water (saltwater seepage). This is a threat for the farmers, because if the groundwater is too salty, some crops won’t grow. It’s very difficult to fight against it because the salt water comes from to deep. It depends from crop to crop how they react with the saltwater, so it’s not possible to describe a tipping point for a value of salt into the water or soil. This is also in connection with the groundwater level, if people use the fresh groundwater the salt/brackish water gets up.
There are different solutions found for it. The first one is not really a solution, but a adaptation. With that we mean like we change the type of crops, that can stand the higher amount of salt in the water or soil. The second solution is to put a new layer of soil, so the buffercapacity of the groundwater is bigger. But the level of the ground level will drop in time, so this is not a solution for always. The last solution is making a water circulation, this means taking water from the Hoge Vaart and use it in the polder.
Image 3.8.4: Salinity in the future
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Figure 3.8.5: Future map of Almere Hout
A future map of Almere Hout is made Based on the pathways. To create more dwelling, the Vogelhorst area will be extended, besides, there will be another residence in the north of this region. The renewable energy will be utilized in the houses that people live in. Recreational facilities are going to build between the houses and green areas, so people can have access to walk through the forests and use the adventure walk. They can also take a look at information center of climate change which will work together with the information center at Kemphaan.
The ecological main structures will be constructed next to the canal in order to maintain the ecological function and increase the opportunity for the migration of local species , which is conducive to biodiversity. Moreover, the windmills are constructed to surround outside of forests which keep the houses peaceful and they are used mainly to produce the electricity. Finally, the village is surrounded by three fields that are used for agriculture.
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3.9 Almere Water 3.9.1 Area description The location of this research is called location H. The location is all about the water. It is divided in a few lakes, and they all contain fresh water. We made the tipping points that are common for our area. We wrote them down and have thought about possible solutions. The tipping points are explaint in the second chapter. After that we describe the possible solutions. They are in de third chapter.
The solutions ensure that Almere will survive the climate change. The four tipping points that are analyzed are: the growing population, the water rise of the lakes, blue algea problems and the green energy. We used the adaptive pathway method to analyze and to think about the possible solutions. The adaptive pathway is presented in de last chapter. The relations between all the tipping points are explained and de possible choices are described.
3.9.2 Pathways TIPPING POINTS
1.0 When the populations becomes bigger than 250.000 inhabitants. One of main tipping point for us was the growing of the population in Almere. The Dutch policy in Almere says that the amount of inhabitants in Almere is max. 300.000, so when the population will reach 250.000 the government has to make some solutions for the growing population. The government could build floating houses around the coastline and when the coastline will be full, the lake between Almere and Amsterdam, Marker Meer could be a good solution. The lake has lot of empty space to expand the city.
Mobility With the growing population there is more need for new infrastructure. This includes roads, trains buss stations. If the government doesn’t make new connections to the big city’s, especially like Amsterdam and Rotterdam we have a problem. There will be long traffic jams and full trains every day. We will have to extend our roads and create more public transportation possibilities.
2.0 When the water rises more than 20 cm. Because of the climate change the sea-level is rising. To stay safe behind the dike the dikes also have to be raised. When the sea level has raised more than 20cm the government will have to act. Because they are responsible for the safety of the people. In the current situation the water is discharges by flee flow to the North sea. If the sea level raises this will become impossible because there will not be a difference in height. So to get rid of the water the water level on the lakes also have to raise simultaneously with the sea level otherwise the IJssel cannot discharge by free flow.
3.0 When the blue algae stay for five years When the blue algae stay one the lake for 5 more years, water quality will decrease. Bad water quality causes that in lake Marker Meer will be less populations of fishes, water plants and populations of water animals(duck). The population of blue algae is dependent of less flow, shallow water and available nutrients. The nutrient pollution is caused by farming. When farmers are using nutrients, they flow via the groundwater into the lake. The lake Marker Meer is one of the biggest lake with fresh water in Holland. Because of the important function the water quality must be good.
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4.0 In x, Almere has 50 % green energy Because the population growth, more energy is needed. The unsustainable energy will run out some day in the future, so we need to look for the alternative and sustainable energy sources. If Almere has less than 50% of sustainable energy sources in 2040, the government has to change policy to maintain and improve the sustainability of the city. We are using a lot of energy. This energy is created form fossil fuels. Because of the big demand for power is will become a problem in the future. The fossil fuels will eventually run out, and we will have no energy to warm our houses. To prevent that we will have to use more green energy. This will be created with different methods like, wind energy and solar power. The goal is that Almere uses 50% of green energy. If they don’t reach the goal it going to be a tipping point because the inhabitants of Almere are depended on the use of energy. We want to be sure that the people have energy in the future.
1.1 when the populations becomes bigger than 300.000 inhabitants. This tipping point follows on the first one. Dutch policy in Almere says that the amount of inhabitants in Almere is max. 300.000, so when the population will reach this number of inhabitants, there are more solutions needed.
Mobility Also when there are more people than the 300.000 inhabitants, there must be enough ways to travel in and around Almere. This is an issue that needs to be taken care of.
2.1 When the water rises more than 40 cm from the current level. When the water rises more than 40 cm, there should be an raising of the dikes. This tipping point follows on tipping point 2.
3.1 when the blue algae is found in the water again, after it was gone. When people find blue algae again, there must be found a solution for this problem. An example can be, deeper water.
4.1 In x, Almere has 70 % green energy This is the tipping point that follows on tipping point 4.
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SOLUTIONS
1.0 when the populations becomes bigger than 250.000 inhabitants
Islands Our solution for the population growth would be creates floating residential islands in the lake of Markermeer. These islands will be built when the population reach 250.000 and the coastline is full. The islands will be located near the coast of Almere. There will improved connection from the islands to Almere. These islands include self-sufficient houses in order to supply themselves with their own energy. If it is needed we build self-sufficient floating houses around the coastline of new islands.
Floating houses To solve the problem on the house market, the city Almere needs to build more houses. Otherwise there would be not enough houses and people can’t move to Almere. The space for this expansion are available in two places. The first place will be on the agricultural properties. But this solution is very hard to push through, because of the farmers. They won’t accept such a big movement that is needed to create enough houses for the citizens. So for that problem, people need to look for another space to build their houses. That here the new technologies come in. The citizens need to go live on the water. Therefor they need floating houses. There already is a project with those houses. The project is IJburg, a new neighbourhood of Amsterdam. The project already finished, so there is prove that it will work. Also the transportation route of these houses is on the spot where the new neighbourhood could be build.
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Mobility Solutions for the mobility problems are new connections to Amsterdam, for example a light rail or new bridge. Another solution is to create a ferry connection between Amsterdam and Almere. This can be used for the commuters to Amsterdam.
2.0 When the water rises more than 20 cm.
The traditional way to improve the dike for the safety of people is to make the dikes stronger and bigger. But this solution will not be possible in every situation. So they have to think about different safety measures. For example to build bigger pumping stations to pump more water out of the lake, to maintain the current water level. During the years to come the weather will be more extreme. The rain will become more intense in a shorter period of time. When the pumping stations fail we need to have a backup plan. One of the solutions for that is to create more water storage. If the pumps are failing, the land will stay dry till the pumping station is working again. Another possible solution is to deepen the lake. They can also create more water storage by lowering the current water level. This water level is controlled by humans so if it is possible to lower it we can handle more water if heavy rainfall accurse in the future.
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3.0 When the blue algae stay for five years When we want to remove the blue algae from the lake we have to do some changes. The first solution is to redirect the river IJssel The result of result of redirecting the river IJssel is that there will be a flow in the Marker Meer lake. When there is flow the blue algae will disappear. Flow in the Marker Meer will also create possibilities for alternative sustainable energy.
The second solution is make a lake deeper. If the lake is deeper, the water temperature stays lower. Blue algae only grows in shallow warm water. So there will be less algae growth in the lakes.
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4.0 In x, Almere has 50 % green energy Because of the water rise, the dikes will need more energy to keep the current level in Almere. One solution for that could be create floating islands just for energy. And if the sea level rises, the floating island will rise also. The energy islands there will be include solar panels, windmills and photovoltaic cells. In 2040 all the new houses, which are built, must be self-sufficient. Solutions for this tipping point are: We can build houses that are self-sufficient. The houses can be fit with solar panels to create enough energy so they are not depending on fossil fuels. Another method is to use the sun heat to warm the water, this can be used to shower of to heat the house. In this way you safe natural gas. The government will have to stimulate the use of green energy, a way to do that is by funding green energy solutions. In this way the people will invest in green energy because it’s less expensive.
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PATHWAYS In the previous chapters the tipping point’s and possible solution are presented. In this chapter the possible pathway’s are chosen. Also the relation between the different solutions will be discussed. In the picture below a timeline with all the possible solution is shown. There are solution who affects climate change effects. An example is the water level rising. A higher waterlevel result´s in less algae.
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