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Retail and Leisure Sector in London FEBRUARY 2018

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Retail and Leisure Sector in London FEBRUARY 2018 Insight focus FEBRUARY 2018 Retail and Leisure trends in London How important is the retail and leisure sector in the overall success of the London economy? © Jill Tate Jill © As the London Mayor consults on his new physical presence of retailers is being affected Draft London Plan, we are looking at the by the continued growth of new forms of retail and leisure trends affecting the Capital; retailing (e.g. multichannel shopping) and the and exploring how London best plans for this. shift in customers’ attitudes from traditional London’s retail sector has continued on shopping trips to a more experiential ‘day out’. A town centre’s performance its strong performance that has characterised While, in the past, planning for town centres has never been solely reflected it since mid-2013, helping to support the has primarily focused on retail, it is clear by its retail performance and Capital’s economy in the second half of 2016. that this focus is evolving, now more so than its business, cultural and civic As of the last quarter of 2016, retail output was before. As a result, it is essential that planning functions. The leisure, evening 5.1% higher than the previous year and annual policy fully addresses a wider range of town and night time economies are growth has averaged 2.6% in the first three centre uses. This Insight forms part of a series important components which quarters of 2017, despite growing inflation. of Retail & Leisure Regional Insight’s across help create attractive places Inner London, with International Centres the England’s different regions. This Insight will in which people want to live, West End and Knightsbridge, is unsurprisingly examine the ingredients of what makes the work, visit, shop and play. It’s performing the strongest, but Outer London is centres in London successful retail and leisure vital that the Capital plans also performing well compared to the national destinations, together with the current climate for continued evolution and average (see Figure 1). for retail and leisure development in the innovation in its town centres. Our previous analysis of national trends Capital and the direction of the sector over Steven Butterworth, in spending, spatial differences and the the coming years. Senior Director changes in the retail and leisure mix highlights the dynamic nature of retailing and associated leisure activities. These trends and changes vary across England, and whilst many wider Figure 1: Retail GVA in London (2006 Q1=100) trends apply, retail and leisure development in London is subject to unique challenges 150 and opportunities. Negative GDP London’s retail and growth leisure sector is integral 140 Greater London to the performance of Inner London Outer London the UK economy and it is 130 UK increasingly important to understand both how this 120 role can be maximised, and where new development opportunities exist, Retail (2006 GVA Q1 = 100) 110 especially in the context of 100 the changing 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 high-street, where the Source: Experian, Lichfields analysis lichfields.uk @LichfieldsTT INSIGHT FOCUS Retail and Leisure sector in London FEBRUARY 2018 Headline figures: Household expenditure equated to around £180 Consumer spending in the night time economy billion (in 2013 prices) in London in the year to in London amounts to 40% of the £66bn spent September 2017. This is the second highest among every year in the UK, equating to £26.3bn every UK regions, after the South East. Looking at a local year . The night time economy is not confined to 8% level, Westminster and Wandsworth have the the West End; it is evident across many Boroughs. of workers in highest spending among Inner London Boroughs, Charing Cross Road, Tottenham Court Road and employment work while in Outer London Boroughs, spending is the West End are recognised on an international in the retail sector highest in Barnet and Ealing . level as night time clusters, whilst Covent across London Factoring in the size of London’s population, Garden and The Strand are recognised on an consumer spending per household stands at international/national level. Inner London areas £20,322 per annum, a real term increase of 5.9% such as Brixton, Camden, Hammersmith and since 2012, 1.5% higher than in 2007. Shepherd’s Bush are recognised on a regional/sub- 65,700 Retail and leisure jobs across London’s 33 regional scale, together with the Outer London of workers in local authorities account for an average of 8% of areas such as Bromley, Croydon and Uxbridge. employment in total jobs, lower than the 9.4% in the rest of the UK. Of more than local importance, Barking, South the retail sector This lower proportion of workforce employed in Kensington, Greenwich and Woolwich are in Westminster the sector is unevenly distributed across the capital, examples of night time economies. the majority of employees in the retail sector are It is clear that the night time economy has a based in Westminster (around 66,000), followed by significant role to play in terms of London’s jobs, Kensington and Chelsea (around 25,000). growth and prosperity. London’s centres must 25,400 In July 2017, the London Mayor, published therefore ensure they continue to adapt and evolve of workers in ‘From good night to great night – a vision for to incorporate these uses, both to boost spending employment in London as a 24-hour City’, which recognises the and create the right environment to attract people the retail sector role the night time sector plays in the London to visit and stay longer. in Kensington economy. Khan’s vision is for London to become and Chelsea a ‘truly 24-hour city’, recognising that successful Source: Experian cities are also creative cities. In order to be a successful and creative city, leisure uses and retail uses must thrive. Figure 2: Household expenditure per person by region 22,000 Year to Q3 2007 20,000 Year to Q3 2012 Year to Q3 2017 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 Household expenditure per person (£), 2013 (£), person per expenditure Household 10,000 Wales Scotland South East South West North West North East East Midlands Greater LondonEast of England West Midlands Yorkshire and The Humber Source: Experian, Lichfields analysis 1Experian 2NTIA, Forward Into The Night (2015) lichfields.uk 2 Spatial trends in productivity and household expenditure INSIGHT FOCUS FEBRUARY 2018 Retail activity is unevenly distributed across centres in London (applying Venuescore's ranking London. This is due to the differences in the role, – see page 4), relative to that area’s productivity and function and scale of centres and the inherent expenditure. The exercise shows that not all of the characteristics of retailing – and, more generally, top venues are located in areas of high productivity economic activity – whereby businesses and and high spending as one might expect. Ilford customers prefer to concentrate in specific areas (ranked 14th) and Romford (ranked 7th), for or venues that are larger, stronger and have better example, are located in areas with both low accessibility. In the London context, this has productivity and low spending, as is the Broadway translated into an interesting spatial pattern that is Shopping Centre in Bexleyheath (ranked 8th) and centred in the West End and expands towards the the Bentall Centre in Kingston-Upon-Thames West and South West of the city in what could be (ranked 7th). described as the capital’s ‘retail corridor’ (Figure 3). The Draft London Plan (para 2.6.3) recognises Overall, the remaining retail hotpots that, whilst household expenditure is expected are scattered around Greater London, broadly to continue to rise, this will be spread unevenly following the geography of town centres. A across London’s centres, reflecting the trends sharp East-West divide is however visible in the towards the polarisation of retail space towards underlying data on household expenditure, while the larger and stronger centres in London. This productivity follows more closely the border polarisation presents a significant challenge and between Inner and Outer London Boroughs, with opportunity for retailing, whereby centres must central Boroughs boosting the higher productivity adapt and evolve to manage the transition of in the retail sector. any surplus retail floorspace to other uses, A mapping exercise undertaken by Lichfields such as leisure, and adapt to new innovative (Figure 3) illustrates the location of the top 15 forms of retailing (i.e. interactive displays/ shopping venues and top 15 managed shopping in-store workshops). Figure 3: Productivity in the retail sector and household expenditure by London Borough Boroughs of London: 1. Barking and Dagenham 2. Barnet 3. Bexley 4. Brent 5. Bromley 6. Camden 7. City of London 8. Croydon 9. Ealing 10. Enfield 11. Greenwich 12. Hackney 13. Hammersmith and Fulham 14. Haringey 15. Harrow 16. Havering 17. Hillingdon 18. Hounslow 19. Islington 20. Kensington and Chelsea 21. Kingston upon Thames 22. Lambeth 23. Lewisham 24. Merton 25. Newham 26. Redbridge 27. Richmond upon Thames 28. Southwark 29. Sutton 30. Tower Hamlets 31. Waltham Forest 32. Wandsworth 33. Westminster Source: Experian, Lichfields analysis lichfields.uk 3 INSIGHT FOCUS Retail and Leisure mix in the top venues and centres FEBRUARY 2018 Successful shopping destinations are no longer Westfield White City and Westfield Stratford solely defined by the strength of their retail offer. take first and second place (Table 2) in terms of the Data from Venuescore ranks centres based on their managed shopping centres. Following approval anchor retailers, fashion operators, non-fashion last year of a Westfield in Croydon, the number multiples, and also their food/service provision, of Westfield’s in the Capital will increase to three.
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