World Demand, future risk and where food use is going Global Food Demand

• To meet global food demand in 2050, agricultural production must be 60 percent higher by weight than in 2005. Alexandratos and Bruinsma, 2012 Global Food Demand

• Increases in food demand are due to: – population growth, – changes in diets, – higher incomes – and urbanization Global Food Demand

• Global agricultural production for commodities in major commodities is projected to grow at 1.5% annually, on average, compared to 2.1% in the previous decade.

• Overall demand for agricultural products (including food, feed, fibre and biofuels) is expected to increase 1.1 percent per year from 2005/07 to 2050, down from 2.2 percent per year in the past four decades. Cereals and Oilseed Increases

– World cereals production must increase by 940 million tonnes to reach 3 billion tonnes; – meat production must increase by 196 million tonnes to reach 455 million tonnes; – and oilseed crops by must increase by 133 million tonnes to reach 282 million tonnes. Canada Share of Global Food Demand

If the increases are realized

– Canadian cereals production would need to increase 28.2 MMT by 2050; – Canadian oilseed production by 5.87 MMT Population

• The world population, is forecasted to increase 32% Population

• Asia will remain the world’s most populous region in the 21st century, but Africa will gain ground • The world population is expected to rise throughout the 21st century, although this growth is projected to decelerate markedly in 2050 to 2100. Dietary Change

• Sugar, fat, and animal product consumption are increasing in almost all regions of the world Dietary Change

• Food consumption is increasing on a global scale—from 2,250 calories per person per day in 1961 to 2,750 calories in 2007 to a projected 3,070 calories by 2050 • Despite increased consumption, South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa will continue to have the lowest daily food caloric intake per capita. • South Asia will quadruple its meat consumption from 2005 to 2050. Dietary Change

• Consumption of cereals, followed by vegetable oils and livestock products, has increased fastest. • Low- and middle-income countries are expected to consume more meat and dairy to 2050. • By 2050, Latin America, Near East/North Africa and East Asia will have a per capita food consumption similar to that of high-income countries in 1990. Dietary Change

Meat and Dairy Demand • Global animal protein consumption has more than doubled since 1970. • Meat consumption in low- and middle-income countries—except for China and Brazil—is projected to grow 75 percent from 2005 to 2050 • On average, every citizen consumes 39 kilograms of meat per year. Dietary Change

Meat and Dairy Demand • Producing calorie energy and protein from livestock takes an estimated 2.5 to 10 times more energy than from grain. • The production of animal protein must be more than tripled if the projected global population of 9 billion people in 2050 were to consume meat and dairy at current North America and Europe levels (PBL 2009). What are the Risks to Food Demand Risk to Food Security

• Production shortfalls, price volatility and trade interruptions remain a threat to global food security.

• Rising prices for both crop and livestock products are projected over the coming decade due to a combination of slower production growth and stronger demand, including for biofuels," Food Waste

• Roughly one-third of food produced for human consumption, about 1.3 billion tonnes per year, gets lost or wasted globally— Food Waste

• Per-capita consumer waste is estimated to be 95 to 115 kilograms per year for Europe and North America, but only 6 to 11 kilograms per year in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia (Gustavsson et al. 2011). Biofuels – Risk or Help?

• One of the most contentious issues on the plant • Two-sided argument • Driven by subsidies and government polices Bio Fuel-Emissions

• The two key factors that determine whether biofuels lead to lower or higher greenhouse gas emissions than fossil fuels are: – How the biomass (the basis of the biofuel) is produced and harvested. This process could emit carbon through, for example, fertilizers and machinery. – Where the biomass is produced. Biofuel production that leads directly or indirectly to land use change emits high levels of carbon. Biofuels – Risk or Help?

• 40% of the US corn crop is used for biofuel • 60% of EU rapeseed is used for biofuel • Largest biofuel industries in North America, Central & South America followed by Europe Biofuels – Risk or Help?

• When compared to fossil fuels, manufactured liquid biofuels do not necessarily produce fewer greenhouse gas emissions - But they do consume needed food supplies Biofuels – Risk or Help?

• It is generally accepted that bioenergy has the potential of either increasing or reducing food security • The effects of biofuels development on national food security can be significantly different Biofuels – Risk or Help?

• The general trend is that food is becoming more expensive • Besides biofuels, other factors are driving up food prices. Bio Fuel

• Using good cropland to expand [liquid] biofuel production will likely exacerbate global warming the same way as directly converting forest and grasslands (Searchinger et al. 2008: 1240). • Continued expansion is largely due to biofuel policies, primary among them use mandates and tax incentives, (USDA 2011) and high crude oil prices. Climate Impacts on Crops

• Global impacts of climate change on yields cannot be estimated due to variation among locations and crop types. But the overall impact on grain is negative

• —the potential yield loss is about 5 percent for each degree Celsius of global warming. Impacts on Food Security

• Many crop yields are expected to decline due to long-term changes in temperature and rainfall and increased climate variability. • The outcome may be higher food prices, Impacts on Food Security

• Farming families may benefit from higher food prices— • Climate shocks like droughts and floods impact how people access food through work, trade and transfers, such as from relatives who live in other climates (Devereux 2007). Sustainable food production

• A huge “buzz word,” sounds good but still a long way from reality • Soil damage, climate change, water and energy availability are all challenges for farming and food security • Sustainable agriculture can benefit from 'system' approaches and farmers' participation Where Do Oats Fit Into All This Oats Are a Small Global Factor

Barley; 6%

Corn; 37% Wheat; 30%

Total Oilseed; Sorghum; 17% 3% Rye; 1% Millet; 1% Oats; 1% Mixed Grain; 1% Oats as a Percentage of Total Cereal and Oilseed Production

9% 8% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 1%

0%

1962/1963 1976/1977 1994/1995 2008/2009 1960/1961 1964/1965 1966/1967 1968/1969 1970/1971 1972/1973 1974/1975 1978/1979 1980/1981 1982/1983 1984/1985 1986/1987 1988/1989 1990/1991 1992/1993 1996/1997 1998/1999 2000/2001 2002/2003 2004/2005 2006/2007 2010/2011 More Oats Consumed for Feed

100% 90% 80% 70% 60%

50% Feed 40% Food 30% 20% 10%

0%

00/01 88/89 90/91 92/93 94/95 96/97 98/99 02/03 04/05 06/07 08/09 10/11 12/13 Greatest Risk for the Oat Market

• Declining value for oat growers and feed users – Resulting in lower trending area and production and depleted oat supplies - its about net returns • Yield lag compared to other crops due to a serious lack of funding • Reduced funding – Less money for agronomic and nutritional research • Mature demand markets – Food demand will not sustain the oat market – Need higher feed demand-specifically horse demand • Oats will fall into contract – Substantial cost increases to food companies – Loss of research/marketing funding – Increased unpredictability Mature Oat Markets Mature Canadian Oat Markets Most produced 100% 99% 98% with 90% Canadian 80% oats Quality 70% 66% 60% 60% Price 50% Buyer 40% 30% 22% 20% 10% 0% US oat imports US oat product Mexico oat Mexico oat Japan oat imports imports product imports imports Mature Oat Markets

• Growth in the oat product & cereal/snack bar markets will be led by food companies & consumer demand. World Cereal Demand

250

230

210

190 000 mt 000 170

150

130

2001 2009 2017 1999 2000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2018 Regional Cereal Demand

2,550 800

700

000 000 mt 000 000 mt

2,050 – – 600 500 1,550 North America 400 Western Europe 1,050 300 Eastern Europe Latin America 200 550

100 Western Europe America N. & Europe Western

50 0 Europe & America Eastern Latin

2001 2005 1999 2003 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 Regional Hot Cereal Demand

300 1.20

1.00 000 mt 000 000 mt

250 – – 0.80 200 Eastern Europe 0.60 Latin America 150 North America 0.40 Western Europe 100

0.20 Western Europe America N. & Europe Western

50 0.00 Europe & America Eastern Latin

1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 North American RTE Cereal Demand

1,750

1,700

1,650

1,600 000 000 mt 1,550

1,500

1,450

2000 2005 1999 2001 2002 2003 2004 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Food Demand for Oats Not Enough Canadian Seeded Oat Area and North American Oat Demand Rising mill demand unable to 7,000stem oat area declines, area 2,500 following feed use down 6,000

2,000 000 mt 000

– 5,000

000 mt 000 – 4,000 1,500

3,000 1,000 2,000

500 Demand Mill/Carry

Seeded area & Feed demand Feed & area Seeded 1,000

0 -

88/89 93/94 07/08 89/90 90/91 91/92 92/93 94/95 95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12

12/13F 13/14F Feed Demand Seeded Oat Area Mill/Carry demand Total Canadian Feed Use

1,600

1,400

1,200

1,000

800 US Equine Demand

000 mt 000 On Farm feed use 600

400

200

-

92/93 88/89 90/91 94/95 96/97 98/99 00/01 02/03 04/05 06/07 08/09 10/11 12/13

43 Oats Lagging Yield Gains

Wheat

Sorghum

Rye

Rice, Milled 10 years Oats 20 years 40 years Millet

Corn

Barley

-50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% What Can Be Done

• It all starts with adding value to the crop – for growers and end-users • Stem and then reverse area and production declines – This leads to higher funding for research • Increase research - agronomic and nutritional – Yield, disease resistance – Higher beta glucan for humans and horses – Improve starch, fiber and hull for horse demand References

• Nikos Alexandratos and Jelle Bruinsma -FAO • Joint FAO/OECD study • Thank you Oatinformation.com North American Oat Area Trends

35,000 1,200,000

30,000 1,000,000

25,000 800,000

20,000 000 bushels 000

600,000 – 000 acres 000

– 15,000

Area Area 400,000

10,000 Production

200,000 5,000

- -

1979 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013

Seeded Harvested Production

48 Canada Oat Production & Commercial Use

5,000 3,000 4,500 4,000 2,500

000 mt 000 3,500 - 2,000

3,000 000 mt 000

2,500 1,500 – 2,000

1,500 1,000 Spread 1,000 Production/Demand Production/Demand 500 500 0 0

Production Total NA Commercial Use Spread

Production falling to demand… Contracting around the corner!49