SEPTEMBER 2019 10

Jussi Lassila, Senior Research Fellow, Finnish Institute of Intenational Affairs

REGIONAL ELECTIONS IN RUSSIA

THE KREMLIN IS TACKLING PREVIOUS CHALLENGES WHILE FACING NEW ONES

The Kremlin is trying to learn lessons from old problems regarding its electoral authoritarian system, but new ones are constantly emerging. At the heart of these is the Kremlin’s party system.

This year, Russia’s regional elec- regime’s candidates, as well as of which provides a clear indication tions were a follow-up to the ones those candidates who receive protest of the spirit in which the Kremlin held in 2018. In 2018, the principal votes. The reputation of the main foisted its favourites into power. focus was on the re-election of Mos- opposition parties in the Duma, the In St. Petersburg, President Pu- cow Mayor Sergey Sobyanin, which Russian Liberal Democratic Party tin’s trusted Alexander Beglov, the played out according to the Krem- and the Communist Party, as genu- highly unpopular governor, proved lin’s script. By contrast, candidates ine political alternatives is also weak. to be a headache for the Kremlin from the Kremlin’s ruling party, However, in the regional elections, it until election day. In polls, Beglov’s United Russia, lost as many as four was the Communist Party’s “too op- strongest contender, the Commu- gubernatorial elections. Primorsky positional” candidates in particular, nist Party’s 73-year-old Vladimir Krai in Russia’s Far East witnessed and candidates who might gather Bortko, stood a good chance of tak- the biggest scandal when Commu- protest votes that appeared to pose ing the race to the second round, nist Party of the Russian Federation a risk to the regime. and then winning with protest candidate Andrei Ishchenko was re- As many as sixteen governors votes. But less than a week before jected after the second round, de- were elected in this year’s region- election day, Bortko withdrew spite his victory. The election was al elections. It seems that avoiding from the race – apparently follow- eventually cancelled and Kremlin the scandals that dogged the 2018 ing the Kremlin’s instructions – and candidate Oleg Kozhemyako was elections has been a top priority for the two remaining contenders no appointed as acting governor. the regime. The Kremlin candidate longer had a real chance. For cer- The central lesson from the 2018 has now won all sixteen elections in tainty’s sake, the reported turnout regional elections for the regime was the first round. The election obser- guaranteed the “correct” result. At the issue of a possible second round, vation agency Golos reported more 6pm the turnout was declared to which puts much pressure on the than 2 000 contraventions this year, be around 24%, but at 8pm when SEPTEMBER 2019 10

the polling stations closed it was as natures for their nomination despite defeat. Whereas United Russia had high as 42%. Natural voting activity the summer lull. In polls, several received 38 out of 45 seats in the or the lack thereof does not explain opposition candidates were favour- 2014 election in Moscow, the num- this change. ites in their constituencies, while ber now fell to 25. In Khabarovsk, If the Kremlin managed to pre- many Kremlin candidates had great United Russia received only around vent risky second rounds in the difficulties in collecting the signa- 13% of the vote, and lost in all con- gubernatorial elections, in 2019 the tures they needed by honest means. stituencies in the region. In St. Pe- municipal elections and the elec- As panic loomed, the Moscow tersburg, delaying the municipal tions of regional legislative assem- administration, assisted by the election results for several days af- blies remained the regime’s blind Kremlin, exacerbated the crisis by ter polling day implied that those spot. In 2013, the Kremlin brought using false pretexts to prevent all results were humiliating as well. forward its nationwide election day independent candidates from taking The 2019 regional elections from October to early September. part in the election. The authorities served to highlight the growing The logic is clear for an authoritari- responded even more brutally to problems besetting the Kremlin’s an regime that fears elections. Elec- the demands by thousands of Mus- political coordination. At the heart tions that take place after the silent covites to approve their candidates. of these problems is the crisis afflict- July–August season complicate Hundreds were arrested, including ing the Kremlin’s party system. As possible opposition campaigning several opposition candidates. These a result, a new problem is the sup- when people are out of town. Yet measures mobilized unprecedented ply and control of non-party can- the events in Moscow this summer numbers of people to oppose the didates. The Kremlin’s need for re- showed, at the very least, that this administrative as well as physical newed legitimacy through elections measure did not prevent the mu- violence inflicted by the authorities. is becoming increasingly acute as the nicipal elections, regarded as po- Although the regime did not give 2021 Duma election is approaching. litically insignificant, from turning in to the opposition’s demands by In the Kremlin’s ideal situation, it into a major political crisis. election day, it was unable to coun- would have several equally strong The eroding position of Unit- ter the influence of opposition lead- candidates who could genuinely ed Russia has become particularly er Alexey Navalny’s well-promoted compete with each other. The prob- acute in Moscow. Following Soby- “smart voting”. This concerned tac- lem is that there are not enough anin’s initiative, Moscow’s 45-seat tical voting in a situation where the strong pro-regime candidates, not council was elected from 45 sin- opposition’s own candidates were even for prestigious positions. Alex- gle-member constituencies into not approved. Based on probabili- ander Beglov, the highly unpopular which the capital was divided. This ties, Navalny offered each constit- governor in St. Petersburg, Russia’s did not eliminate the problem of uency a “least bad” candidate, that second largest city, is a case in point. weak parties, however. Moreover, a is, anyone other than a candidate Moreover, controlling independent new problem was the strongly mo- supported by the regime. In Mos- candidates is much more laborious bilized opposition whose candidates cow and Khabarovsk in particular, than controlling the political process managed to collect the required sig- United Russia suffered a humiliating through the loyal parties.

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