DOCSLIB.ORG

'Krym Nash': an Analysis of Modern Russian Deception Warfare

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
'Krym Nash': an Analysis of Modern Russian Deception Warfare ‘Krym Nash’: An Analysis of Modern Russian Deception Warfare ‘De Krim is van ons’ Een analyse van hedendaagse Russische wijze van oorlogvoeren – inmenging door misleiding (met een samenvatting in het Nederlands) Proefschrift ter verkrijging van de graad van doctor aan de Universiteit Utrecht op gezag van de rector magnificus, prof. dr. H.R.B.M. Kummeling, ingevolge het besluit van het college voor promoties in het openbaar te verdedigen op woensdag 16 december 2020 des middags te 12.45 uur door Albert Johan Hendrik Bouwmeester geboren op 25 mei 1962 te Enschede Promotoren: Prof. dr. B.G.J. de Graaff Prof. dr. P.A.L. Ducheine Dit proefschrift werd mede mogelijk gemaakt met financiële steun van het ministerie van Defensie. ii Table of contents Table of contents .................................................................................................. iii List of abbreviations ............................................................................................ vii Abbreviations and Acronyms ........................................................................................................................... vii Country codes .................................................................................................................................................... ix American State Codes ....................................................................................................................................... ix List of figures ....................................................................................................... xi Chapter 1 Introduction ........................................................................................... 1 1.1 Preamble ....................................................................................................................................................... 1 1.2 Aim and scope .............................................................................................................................................. 9 1.3 Relevance ................................................................................................................................................... 10 1.4 Framing the problem .................................................................................................................................. 11 1.5 The research question ................................................................................................................................. 12 1.6 Research methodology ............................................................................................................................... 13 1.7 Structure of the dissertation ........................................................................................................................ 17 Chapter 2 Russian Deception .............................................................................. 19 2.1 Preamble ..................................................................................................................................................... 19 2.2 Russian view on information warfare ......................................................................................................... 21 2.3 Maskirovka ................................................................................................................................................. 23 2.4 Reflexive Control ....................................................................................................................................... 38 2.5 Dezinformatsiya ......................................................................................................................................... 57 2.6 Concluding remarks ................................................................................................................................... 71 Chapter 3 Deception Warfare .............................................................................. 73 3.1 Preamble ..................................................................................................................................................... 73 3.2 Classical and current examples .................................................................................................................. 74 3.3 Lost appetite ............................................................................................................................................... 76 3.4 The aim of deception .................................................................................................................................. 82 3.5 Manifestation .............................................................................................................................................. 84 3.6 The deception process ................................................................................................................................ 89 3.7 Concluding remarks ................................................................................................................................. 113 iii Chapter 4 Human Dimensions .......................................................................... 117 4.1 Preamble ................................................................................................................................................... 118 4.2 Uncertainty ............................................................................................................................................... 119 4.3 Surprise .................................................................................................................................................... 133 4.4 Manipulated perception ............................................................................................................................ 146 4.5 Concluding remarks ................................................................................................................................. 166 Chapter 5 An Analytical Framework ................................................................ 169 5.1 Preamble ................................................................................................................................................... 169 5.2 Qualitative synthesis................................................................................................................................. 170 5.3 Analysis .................................................................................................................................................... 171 5.4 The amalgamation of deception factors .................................................................................................... 178 5.5 Concluding remarks ................................................................................................................................. 180 Chapter 6 Russian Authorities ........................................................................... 181 6.1 Preamble ................................................................................................................................................... 182 6.2 Russia’s ambition ..................................................................................................................................... 183 6.3 Political system of the Russian Federation ............................................................................................... 187 6.4 Intelligence and security services ............................................................................................................. 196 6.5 Siloviki ..................................................................................................................................................... 211 6.6 Other government bodies ......................................................................................................................... 214 6.7 Concluding remarks ................................................................................................................................. 219 Chapter 7 Russo-Georgian Armed Conflict 2008 ............................................. 221 7.1 Preamble ................................................................................................................................................... 222 7.2 Historical overview of the armed conflict ................................................................................................ 223 7.3 Different opinions..................................................................................................................................... 242 7.4 Russian efforts .......................................................................................................................................... 252 7.5 Georgian receptiveness and responses ..................................................................................................... 269 7.6 Post-conflict considerations...................................................................................................................... 277 7.7 Concluding remarks ................................................................................................................................. 280 Chapter 8 The Annexation of Crimea 2014 ...................................................... 283 8.1 Preamble ..................................................................................................................................................
Load more

Recommended publications
  • Words That Work: It's Not What You Say, It's What People Hear
    ï . •,";,£ CASL M T. ^oÛNTAE À SUL'S, REVITA 1ENT, HASSLE- NT_ MAIN STR " \CCOUNTA ;, INNOVAT MLUE, CASL : REVITA JOVATh IE, CASL )UNTAE CO M M XIMEN1 VlTA • Ml ^re aW c^Pti ( °rds *cc Po 0 ^rof°>lish lu*t* >nk Lan <^l^ gua a ul Vic r ntz °ko Ono." - Somehow, W( c< Words are enorm i Jheer pleasure of CJ ftj* * - ! love laag^ liant about Words." gM °rder- Franl< Luntz * bril- 'Frank Luntz understands the power of words to move public Opinion and communicate big ideas. Any Democrat who writes off his analysis and decades of experience just because he works for the other side is making a big mistake. His les sons don't have a party label. The only question is, where s our Frank Luntz^^^^^^^™ îy are some people so much better than others at talking their way into a job or nit of trouble? What makes some advertising jingles cut through the clutter of our crowded memories? What's behind winning campaign slogans and career-ending political blunders? Why do some speeches resonate and endure while others are forgotten moments after they are given? The answers lie in the way words are used to influence and motivate, the way they connect thought and emotion. And no person knows more about the intersection of words and deeds than language architect and public-opinion guru Dr. Frank Luntz. In Words That Work, Dr. Luntz not only raises the curtain on the craft of effective language, but also offers priceless insight on how to find and use the right words to get what you want out of life.
    [Show full text]
  • A Short History of the Soviet/Russian Western Group of Forces in Germany 1945-1994
    Copyright by Elliott Carson Nowacky 2012 The Thesis Committee for Elliott Carson Nowacky Certifies that this is the approved version of the following thesis: From Occupation to Withdrawal: A Short History of the Soviet/Russian Western Group of Forces in Germany 1945-1994 APPROVED BY SUPERVISING COMMITTEE: Supervisor: Thomas J. Garza Bella B. Jordan From Occupation to Withdrawal: A Short History of the Soviet/Russian Western Group of Forces in Germany 1945-1994 by Elliott Carson Nowacky, B.A History Thesis Presented to the Faculty of the Graduate School of The University of Texas at Austin in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Master of Arts The University of Texas at Austin August 2012 Dedication To my late parents Ed and Catherine. Acknowledgements This thesis would not have been possible without the help of many people. I would like to thank Professor Thomas Garza and Dr. Bella Bychkova-Jordan for their guidance, constructive criticism and ever present enthusiasm during the writing process. My appreciation also goes to Andriy, Elena and Yuri at the NovaMova Language Institute in Kiev. Andriy, who is also one of the people I interviewed for this project, went above the call of duty in arranging an additional interview with another ZGV veteran in L’viv for me during my short time in Ukraine. Yuri helped me slog through Michael Boltunov’s Gorkaya Doroga Domoi and Elena assisted in preparing my interview questions in Russian. Kudos are also in order for Jay K. and Brandon P, my former “battle buddies” here at UT; Thanks for helping a middle-aged graduate student remain sane.
    [Show full text]
  • Dog Whistling Far-Right Code Words: the Case of 'Culture
    Information, Communication & Society ISSN: (Print) (Online) Journal homepage: https://www.tandfonline.com/loi/rics20 Dog whistling far-right code words: the case of ‘culture enricher' on the Swedish web Mathilda Åkerlund To cite this article: Mathilda Åkerlund (2021): Dog whistling far-right code words: the case of ‘culture enricher' on the Swedish web, Information, Communication & Society, DOI: 10.1080/1369118X.2021.1889639 To link to this article: https://doi.org/10.1080/1369118X.2021.1889639 © 2021 The Author(s). Published by Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group Published online: 23 Feb 2021. Submit your article to this journal Article views: 502 View related articles View Crossmark data Full Terms & Conditions of access and use can be found at https://www.tandfonline.com/action/journalInformation?journalCode=rics20 INFORMATION, COMMUNICATION & SOCIETY https://doi.org/10.1080/1369118X.2021.1889639 Dog whistling far-right code words: the case of ‘culture enricher’ on the Swedish web Mathilda Åkerlund Sociology Department, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden ABSTRACT ARTICLE HISTORY This paper uses the Swedish, once neo-Nazi expression culture Received 21 August 2020 enricher (Swedish: kulturberikare) as a case study to explore how Accepted 31 January 2021 covert and coded far-right discourse is mainstreamed, over time KEYWORDS and across websites. A sample of 2,336 uses of the expression Far-right; mainstreaming; between 1999 and 2020 were analysed using critical discourse fi dog whistling; critical analysis. The ndings illustrate how the expression works like a discourse analysis; coded ‘dog whistle’ by enabling users to discretely self-identify with an language use imagined in-group of discontent white ‘Swedes’, while simultaneously showing opposition to the priorities of a generalised ‘establishment’.
    [Show full text]
  • Deception, Disinformation, and Strategic Communications: How One Interagency Group Made a Major Difference by Fletcher Schoen and Christopher J
    STRATEGIC PERSPECTIVES 11 Deception, Disinformation, and Strategic Communications: How One Interagency Group Made a Major Difference by Fletcher Schoen and Christopher J. Lamb Center for Strategic Research Institute for National Strategic Studies National Defense University Institute for National Strategic Studies National Defense University The Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS) is National Defense University’s (NDU’s) dedicated research arm. INSS includes the Center for Strategic Research, Center for Complex Operations, Center for the Study of Chinese Military Affairs, Center for Technology and National Security Policy, Center for Transatlantic Security Studies, and Conflict Records Research Center. The military and civilian analysts and staff who comprise INSS and its subcomponents execute their mission by conducting research and analysis, publishing, and participating in conferences, policy support, and outreach. The mission of INSS is to conduct strategic studies for the Secretary of Defense, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and the Unified Combatant Commands in support of the academic programs at NDU and to perform outreach to other U.S. Government agencies and the broader national security community. Cover: Kathleen Bailey presents evidence of forgeries to the press corps. Credit: The Washington Times Deception, Disinformation, and Strategic Communications: How One Interagency Group Made a Major Difference Deception, Disinformation, and Strategic Communications: How One Interagency Group Made a Major Difference By Fletcher Schoen and Christopher J. Lamb Institute for National Strategic Studies Strategic Perspectives, No. 11 Series Editor: Nicholas Rostow National Defense University Press Washington, D.C. June 2012 Opinions, conclusions, and recommendations expressed or implied within are solely those of the contributors and do not necessarily represent the views of the Defense Department or any other agency of the Federal Government.
    [Show full text]
  • Table of Contents
    Table of Contents The Opening Salvo 21 What Are Negotiations? 21 Why Are Negotiations Important? 25 When Do Negotiations Take Place? 26 Are Negotiations Limited to the Purview of Rocket Scientists? 30 Should Negotiators Always Seek to Vanquish Opponents? 31 Costs and Risks of Negotiations 36 Some Negotiators are Duplicitous 45 Risks of Borrowing Money from Partners and Customers 47 Avoiding Negotiations 63 You Are Always Negotiating 63 Fundamental Tensions in Negotiations 67 Negotiations Are Pervasive and Eternal 74 LEVERAGE IN NEGOTIATIONS 79 The Importance of Leverage in Negotiations 80 Creating Negotiating Leverage 85 Plan Your Exit at the Beginning 85 Importance of Choosing Partners Wisely 87 Gaining Leverage Through Third Parties 89 Business Models Are a Factor in Successful Negotiations 93 The Anatomy of Argumentation 97 Lincolnian Argumentation 98 The Power of Process 101 Harmonizing the Negotiating Process 103 Voting Architecture 105 Selected Negotiating Process Issues 107 Preemptively Setting the Framework for Resolving Disputes 108 Auctions Versus Direct Negotiations 113 Benefits of Auctions Over Direct Negotiations 113 Benefits of Direct Negotiations Over Auctions 115 The Strategic Negotiator I 1 Sequencing Negotiations 118 Sequencing Contentious Issues 118 Negotiating Downrange 129 Hold-Up Tactics 132 PREPARING FOR NEGOTIATIONS 143 Conducting Due Diligence on Individuals 148 Conducting Due Diligence on Institutions 152 Conducting Due Diligence on Individuals Within Institutions 154 Elicitation Strategies 157 Heimlich Maneuvers
    [Show full text]
  • Billing Code 4810-Al Department
    This document is scheduled to be published in the Federal Register on 12/30/2020 and available online at example.com/d/2020-28863, and on govinfo.govBILLING CODE 4810-AL DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY Office of Foreign Assets Control Notice of OFAC Sanctions Actions AGENCY: Office of Foreign Assets Control, Treasury. ACTION: Notice. SUMMARY: The Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) is publishing the names of one or more persons that have been placed on OFAC’s Specially Designated Nationals and Blocked Persons List based on OFAC’s determination that one or more applicable legal criteria were satisfied. All property and interests in property subject to U.S. jurisdiction of these persons are blocked, and U.S. persons are generally prohibited from engaging in transactions with them. DATES: See SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION section for effective date(s). FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: OFAC: Andrea Gacki, Director, tel.: 202-622-2420; Associate Director for Global Targeting, tel.: 202-622-2420; Assistant Director for Sanctions Compliance & Evaluation, tel.: 202-622-2490; Assistant Director for Licensing, tel.: 202-622-2480; or Assistant Director for Regulatory Affairs, tel.: 202- 622-4855. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Electronic Availability The Specially Designated Nationals and Blocked Persons List and additional information concerning OFAC sanctions programs are available on OFAC’s website (https://www.treasury.gov/ofac). Notice of OFAC Action(s) On December 23, 2020, OFAC determined that the property and interests in property subject to U.S. jurisdiction of the following persons are blocked under the relevant sanctions authority listed below. Individual: 1. KAZAKEVICH, Henadz Arkadzievich (Cyrillic: КАЗАКЕВIЧ, Генадзь Аркадзьевiч) (a.k.a.
    [Show full text]
  • The Congress for Cultural Freedom and the Non-Communist European Left, 1950-1967
    Western Michigan University ScholarWorks at WMU Honors Theses Lee Honors College 5-2008 Competing Visions: The CIA, the Congress for Cultural Freedom and the Non-Communist European Left, 1950-1967 Scott Kamen Western Michigan University, [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: https://scholarworks.wmich.edu/honors_theses Part of the Political Science Commons Recommended Citation Kamen, Scott, "Competing Visions: The CIA, the Congress for Cultural Freedom and the Non-Communist European Left, 1950-1967" (2008). Honors Theses. 912. https://scholarworks.wmich.edu/honors_theses/912 This Honors Thesis-Open Access is brought to you for free and open access by the Lee Honors College at ScholarWorks at WMU. It has been accepted for inclusion in Honors Theses by an authorized administrator of ScholarWorks at WMU. For more information, please contact [email protected]. Competing Visions: The CIA, the Congress for Cultural Freedom and the Non-Communist European Left, 1950-1967 Scott Kamen College of Arts and Science Department of History Western Michigan University Kalamazoo, MI Thesis Committee Edwin Martini, PhD Chair Luigi Andrea Berto, PhD Reader Fred Dobney, PhD Reader Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for Senior Thesis and Honors Thesis May 2008 During the tense early years of the Cold War, the United States government, utilizing the newly formed Central Intelligence Agency, covertly provided the majority of the funding for an international organization comprised primarily of non-communistleft (NCL) intellectuals known as the Congressfor Cultural Freedom (CCF). The CCF based their primary mission around facilitating cooperativenetworks of NCLintellectuals and sought to draw upon the cultural influence of these individuals to sway the intelligentsia of Western Europe away from its lingering fascinations with communism and its sympathetic views of the Soviet Union.
    [Show full text]
  • Shock Therapy: the United States Anti-Communist Psychological Campaign in Fourth Republic France
    Florida State University Libraries Electronic Theses, Treatises and Dissertations The Graduate School 2006 Shock Therapy: The United States Anti- Communist Psychological Campaign in Fourth Republic France Susan M. Perlman Follow this and additional works at the FSU Digital Library. For more information, please contact [email protected] THE FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY COLLEGE OF SOCIAL SCIENCES SHOCK THERAPY: THE UNITED STATES ANTI-COMMUNIST PSYCHOLOGICAL CAMPAIGN IN FOURTH REPUBLIC FRANCE By SUSAN M. PERLMAN A Thesis submitted to the Department of International Affairs in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Arts Degree Awarded: Spring Semester, 2006 The members of the Committee approve the thesis of Susan M. Perlman, defended on February 10, 2006. ______________________________ Max Paul Friedman Professor Directing Thesis ______________________________ Lee Metcalf Committee Member ______________________________ Michael Creswell Committee Member The Office of Graduate Studies has verified and approved the above named committee members. ii For my husband Todd, without whose love and support this would not have been possible, and for my parents Jim and Sandy McCall, who always encouraged me to go the extra mile. iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would like to thank Professor Max Paul Friedman for agreeing to supervise this thesis. Dr. Friedman inspired me to write about U.S. foreign policy and provided me with the encouragement and guidance I needed to undertake and complete this endeavor. Moreover, he has been a true mentor, and has made my time at Florida State the most rewarding of my academic life. In addition, I would like to thank Professor Michael Creswell, who graciously agreed to preview portions of this text on numerous occasions.
    [Show full text]
  • From Logic to Rhetoric: a Contextualized Pedagogy for Fallacies
    Current Issue From the Editors Weblog Editorial Board Editorial Policy Submissions Archives Accessibility Search Composition Forum 32, Fall 2015 From Logic to Rhetoric: A Contextualized Pedagogy for Fallacies Anne-Marie Womack Abstract: This article reenvisions fallacies for composition classrooms by situating them within rhetorical practices. Fallacies are not formal errors in logic but rather persuasive failures in rhetoric. I argue fallacies are directly linked to successful rhetorical strategies and pose the visual organizer of the Venn diagram to demonstrate that claims can achieve both success and failure based on audience and context. For example, strong analogy overlaps false analogy and useful appeal to pathos overlaps manipulative emotional appeal. To advance this argument, I examine recent changes in fallacies theory, critique a-rhetorical textbook approaches, contextualize fallacies within the history and theory of rhetoric, and describe a methodology for rhetorically reclaiming these terms. Today, fallacy instruction in the teaching of written argument largely follows two paths: teachers elevate fallacies as almost mathematical formulas for errors or exclude them because they don’t fit into rhetorical curriculum. Both responses place fallacies outside the realm of rhetorical inquiry. Fallacies, though, are not as clear-cut as the current practice of spotting them might suggest. Instead, they rely on the rhetorical situation. Just as it is an argument to create a fallacy, it is an argument to name a fallacy. This article describes an approach in which students must justify naming claims as successful strategies and/or fallacies, a process that demands writing about contexts and audiences rather than simply linking terms to obviously weak statements.
    [Show full text]
  • British Anti-Communist Propaganda and Cooperation with the United States, 1945-1951. Andrew Defty
    British anti-communist propaganda and cooperation with the United States, 1945-1951. Andrew Defty European Studies Research Institute School of English, Sociology, Politics and Contemporary History University of Salford Submitted in fulfilment of the requirements of the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy, January 2002 British anti-communist propaganda and cooperation with the United States, 1945-1951 Contents Acknowledgements................................................................................................. .......ii Abbreviations.................................................................................................................iii Abstract..........................................................................................................................iv Introduction....................................................................................................................! Chapter 1 The Origins of Britain's anti-communist propaganda policy 1945-1947.............................28 Chapter 2 Launching the new propaganda policy, 1948.....................................................................74 Chapter 3 Building a concerted counter-offensive: cooperation with other powers, 1948-1950 ........123 Chapter 4 'Close and continuous liaison': British and American cooperation, 1950-1951 .................162 Conclusion .....................................................................................................................216 Notes Introduction .........................................................................................................226
    [Show full text]
  • A System for Cherry-Picked Trendlines Detection
    MithraDetective: A System for Cherry-picked Trendlines Detection Yoko Nagafuchi∗, Yin Liny, Kaushal Mamgain{, Abolfazl Asudeh∗∗, H. V. Jagadishx, You (Will) Wuk, Cong Yuz ∗,y,xUniversity of Michigan; {,∗∗University of Illinois at Chicago; k,zGoogle Research; {yokon,irenelin,jag}@umich.edu; {kmamga2,asudeh}@uic.edu; {wuyou,congyu}@google.com; ABSTRACT come out with the fantasy-like statement that: The northern Given a data set, misleading conclusions can be drawn from hemisphere summers are colder than winters. For example, a it by cherry picking selected samples. One important class of cherry-picked summer day of Ann Arbor (MI, USA) on Aug. 퐹 conclusions is a trend derived from a data set of values over 18 had an average temperature of 58° , which is 8 degrees time. Our goal is to evaluate whether the ‘trends’ described lower than its average temperature on Mar. 15 (a winter by the extracted samples are representative of the true sit- day). In fact, both of the seasonal aggregation results and uation represented in the data. We demonstrate MithraDe- the validation [3] indicate that such cherry-picked trendline tective, a system to compute a support score to indicate how statements are not a fair representation of the truth. cherry-picked a statement is; that is, whether the reported Cherry-picked claims can aggravate public panic and lead trend is well-supported by the data. The system can also be to potentially dangerous outcomes in policy-making, as shown used to discover more supported alternatives. MithraDetec- in the next example. tive provides an interactive visual interface for both tasks.
    [Show full text]
  • The History of Ukraine Advisory Board
    THE HISTORY OF UKRAINE ADVISORY BOARD John T. Alexander Professor of History and Russian and European Studies, University of Kansas Robert A. Divine George W. Littlefield Professor in American History Emeritus, University of Texas at Austin John V. Lombardi Professor of History, University of Florida THE HISTORY OF UKRAINE Paul Kubicek The Greenwood Histories of the Modern Nations Frank W. Thackeray and John E. Findling, Series Editors Greenwood Press Westport, Connecticut • London Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Kubicek, Paul. The history of Ukraine / Paul Kubicek. p. cm. — (The Greenwood histories of the modern nations, ISSN 1096 –2095) Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 978 – 0 –313 – 34920 –1 (alk. paper) 1. Ukraine —History. I. Title. DK508.51.K825 2008 947.7— dc22 2008026717 British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data is available. Copyright © 2008 by Paul Kubicek All rights reserved. No portion of this book may be reproduced, by any process or technique, without the express written consent of the publisher. Library of Congress Catalog Card Number: 2008026717 ISBN: 978– 0– 313 – 34920 –1 ISSN: 1096 –2905 First published in 2008 Greenwood Press, 88 Post Road West, Westport, CT 06881 An imprint of Greenwood Publishing Group, Inc. www.greenwood.com Printed in the United States of America The paper used in this book complies with the Permanent Paper Standard issued by the National Information Standards Organization (Z39.48 –1984). 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Every reasonable effort has been made to trace the owners of copyright materials in this book, but in some instances this has proven impossible.
    [Show full text]