‘Krym Nash’: An Analysis of Modern Russian Deception Warfare ‘De Krim is van ons’ Een analyse van hedendaagse Russische wijze van oorlogvoeren – inmenging door misleiding (met een samenvatting in het Nederlands) Proefschrift ter verkrijging van de graad van doctor aan de Universiteit Utrecht op gezag van de rector magnificus, prof. dr. H.R.B.M. Kummeling, ingevolge het besluit van het college voor promoties in het openbaar te verdedigen op woensdag 16 december 2020 des middags te 12.45 uur door Albert Johan Hendrik Bouwmeester geboren op 25 mei 1962 te Enschede Promotoren: Prof. dr. B.G.J. de Graaff Prof. dr. P.A.L. Ducheine Dit proefschrift werd mede mogelijk gemaakt met financiële steun van het ministerie van Defensie. ii Table of contents Table of contents .................................................................................................. iii List of abbreviations ............................................................................................ vii Abbreviations and Acronyms ........................................................................................................................... vii Country codes .................................................................................................................................................... ix American State Codes ....................................................................................................................................... ix List of figures ....................................................................................................... xi Chapter 1 Introduction ........................................................................................... 1 1.1 Preamble ....................................................................................................................................................... 1 1.2 Aim and scope .............................................................................................................................................. 9 1.3 Relevance ................................................................................................................................................... 10 1.4 Framing the problem .................................................................................................................................. 11 1.5 The research question ................................................................................................................................. 12 1.6 Research methodology ............................................................................................................................... 13 1.7 Structure of the dissertation ........................................................................................................................ 17 Chapter 2 Russian Deception .............................................................................. 19 2.1 Preamble ..................................................................................................................................................... 19 2.2 Russian view on information warfare ......................................................................................................... 21 2.3 Maskirovka ................................................................................................................................................. 23 2.4 Reflexive Control ....................................................................................................................................... 38 2.5 Dezinformatsiya ......................................................................................................................................... 57 2.6 Concluding remarks ................................................................................................................................... 71 Chapter 3 Deception Warfare .............................................................................. 73 3.1 Preamble ..................................................................................................................................................... 73 3.2 Classical and current examples .................................................................................................................. 74 3.3 Lost appetite ............................................................................................................................................... 76 3.4 The aim of deception .................................................................................................................................. 82 3.5 Manifestation .............................................................................................................................................. 84 3.6 The deception process ................................................................................................................................ 89 3.7 Concluding remarks ................................................................................................................................. 113 iii Chapter 4 Human Dimensions .......................................................................... 117 4.1 Preamble ................................................................................................................................................... 118 4.2 Uncertainty ............................................................................................................................................... 119 4.3 Surprise .................................................................................................................................................... 133 4.4 Manipulated perception ............................................................................................................................ 146 4.5 Concluding remarks ................................................................................................................................. 166 Chapter 5 An Analytical Framework ................................................................ 169 5.1 Preamble ................................................................................................................................................... 169 5.2 Qualitative synthesis................................................................................................................................. 170 5.3 Analysis .................................................................................................................................................... 171 5.4 The amalgamation of deception factors .................................................................................................... 178 5.5 Concluding remarks ................................................................................................................................. 180 Chapter 6 Russian Authorities ........................................................................... 181 6.1 Preamble ................................................................................................................................................... 182 6.2 Russia’s ambition ..................................................................................................................................... 183 6.3 Political system of the Russian Federation ............................................................................................... 187 6.4 Intelligence and security services ............................................................................................................. 196 6.5 Siloviki ..................................................................................................................................................... 211 6.6 Other government bodies ......................................................................................................................... 214 6.7 Concluding remarks ................................................................................................................................. 219 Chapter 7 Russo-Georgian Armed Conflict 2008 ............................................. 221 7.1 Preamble ................................................................................................................................................... 222 7.2 Historical overview of the armed conflict ................................................................................................ 223 7.3 Different opinions..................................................................................................................................... 242 7.4 Russian efforts .......................................................................................................................................... 252 7.5 Georgian receptiveness and responses ..................................................................................................... 269 7.6 Post-conflict considerations...................................................................................................................... 277 7.7 Concluding remarks ................................................................................................................................. 280 Chapter 8 The Annexation of Crimea 2014 ...................................................... 283 8.1 Preamble ..................................................................................................................................................