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Telecom Sector Singapore Industry Focus Telecom Sector Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report DBS Group Research . Equity 26 Jun 2018 STI : 3,260.84 Few years of pain to turn TPG Analyst unviable Sachin MITTAL +65 66823699 [email protected] TPG’s business case rendered unviable by aggressive mobile virtual network operators (MVNOs) After 44% correction YTD, StarHub is still not attractive at 12-month forward EV/EBITDA of 6.8x versus M1’s 6.4x and Singtel’s core 5.4x. Too early to buy StarHub for potential sector consolidation a few years later STOCKS 12-mth Prefer Singtel > M1 > StarHub. Singtel continues to be Price Mkt Cap Target Price Performance (%) S$ US$m S$ 3 mth 12 mth Rating our preferred stock for its stable core EBITDA prospects vs potential decline at M1 & StarHub. Singtel is expected Singtel 3.11 37,283 3.70 (7.4) (17.9) BUY to resume earnings growth in FY20F, led by Bharti StarHub 1.63 2,071 1.42 (30.6) (40.1) HOLD (upgrade Few years of pain ahead as telcos intend to minimize revenue from FV) share gains for TPG. MVNOs such as Circles.Life and M1 1.57 1,067 1.46 (11.3) (27.7) HOLD MyRepublic with their low-cost model and superior customer Source: DBS Bank, Bloomberg Finance L.P. service (100% app based), may garner a big portion of Closing price as of 25 Jun 2018 customers shifting to cheaper SIM-only plans (~10% gross revenue share in 2022). As the majority of MVNOs’ revenue Singtel’s valuation discount to M1 & StarHub has narrowed will flow back to their telco partners, telcos are better off and is likely to disappear in the future losing revenue share to MVNOs than TPG by offering flexible wholesale pricing to their MVNOs. TPG is likely to compete on cheaper pricing but will be challenged by MVNOs that offer superior network quality and differentiated services. We forecast 4% mobile industry revenue contraction over 2017- 22 vs 1% contraction earlier due to higher take-up of cheaper SIM-only plans. We project TPG to show EBITDA losses versus positive EBITDA in 2022 earlier with just 4% revenue share in 2022 (vs 5.5% earlier) forcing it to seek exit opportunities. Singtel’s core business is trading at 12-month forward EV/EBITDA of 5.4x versus 6.4x for M1 and 6.8x StarHub. We argue that Singtel’s core business should trade at the regional average of 7x EV/EBITDA given its ability to stabilise core- EBITDA via cost savings and revenue share gains in Australia. We peg M1 & StarHub to trade at 6x & 5.6x 12-month Source: DBS Bank forward EV/EBITDA respectively at 15% & 20% discounts to the regional average due to their declining EBITDA prospects. M1 is better placed than StarHub in our view, due to its non- reliance on Pay TV-mobile bundling (Pay TV expected to decline), and its proven MVNO partner Circles.Life. After recent correction, we upgrade StarHub to HOLD for potential returns of -3% including ~10% yield. ed: CK / sa: YM, PY, CS Industry Focus Telecom Sector Telcos pro-actively closing the gaps in the SIM-only plans via mobile revenues, offsetting any potential revenue impact in MVNOs. TPG, the fourth Mobile Network Operator (MNO) set the low-end segments that is likely to be caused by TPG. to enter Singapore in 2H18, faces an uphill battle, amid the myriad of Mobile Virtual Network Operators (MVNO) the TPG has already announced plans to offer unlimited voice and incumbents have partnered with. Each incumbent has 3GB of data free of charge for 24 months to senior citizens in partnered with at least one MVNO, with the market leader Singapore. The telco is also offering free unlimited data for six Singtel joining hands with two, taking the total number of months (A$9.99 thereafter) in Australia, where TPG entered mobile service providers in the country to seven from just as a MNO. We believe that TPG will likely adopt a similar three players at the end of 2015. By partnering with MVNOs strategy of offering free services at the initial stages of its the incumbents are 1) making it difficult for TPG to succeed entry in Singapore as well, possibly leading to price wars by stirring up competition in the SIM-only segments, which between operators. TPG is likely to target first, and 2) generating wholesale MVNOs in Singapore Circles.Life Zero Mobile Zero1 MyRepublic Plans Base Flexi Zero X Zero XO Zero1 Uno Ultimate -Price S$28 S$0 S$69.95 S$39.95 S$29.99 S$8 S$80 -Data 6GB 1GB Unlimited 6GB 3GB* 1GB* 80GB* -Voice (mins) 100 30 Unlimited Unlimited 200 1000 1000 MNO Partner M1 Singtel Singtel StarHub Launch Date 2016 2017 2018 2H18 *Unlimited data at reduced speeds once the data quota is over Source: Companies, DBS Bank We project annual industry contraction of 4% over 2018-22 from present levels vs our previous assumption of just 4% in the base case scenario. We have revised our assumptions of contraction of the industry topline over the same period. annual decline in the mobile industry through 2017A-2022F Annual industry contraction of 6% over 2018-22 if TPG is to 4% from 1% earlier on the back of 1) rising adoption of more successful than our projections under the bear-case SIM-only plans, and 2) escalation of price wars in the industry scenario. We project that almost a quarter of the industry as TPG battles it out with MVNOs. topline could be wiped out by 2022, if TPG, backed with a strong balance sheet, adopts heavily disruptive pricing policies, SIM-only plans (8-9% of postpaid plans currently) are seeing much like Reliance Jio in India, driving MVNOs out of the rising adoption amid lengthening smartphone replacement market and instigating severe downward adjustments to cycles and aggressive promotions by MVNOs. Judging from industry yields. Under this scenario, we expect the mobile Australia’ s experience, where SIM-only constitutes ~25% of industry to contract at an annual rate of 6% over 2018-2022. the total postpaid, Singapore is likely to see a big rise in these plans. Customer spend on SIM-only plans vis-à-vis handset Annual industry contraction of 2-3% over 2018-22 if TPG is plans tends to be substantially lower and growing uptake acquired in 2020-2021 under our bull-case scenario. Under would negatively impact mobile service revenues and dilute our bull case, we assume that TPG will exit the Singapore industry ARPU going forward. We also believe TPG would mobile market by 2021, after intense competition from need to adopt very aggressive pricing strategies during the MVNOs and the incumbents, via a sale of its operations to an first few years of entry to snatch revenue share in an incumbent operator. Under this scenario, we expect the overcrowded mobile space with seven service providers. This mobile industry to return to a growth trajectory by 2022 and would likely lead to steep contraction of voice and data yields, the 2017-2022 annual contraction of the mobile industry to further weighing down the industry topline. Factoring these, be limited to 2% vs our base-case projection of 4%. we project an 18% contraction in industry revenues by 2022 Page 2 Page 2 Industry Focus Telecom Sector 3.5% and 4% revenue share grab by MVNOs and TPG, respectively, by 2022 under our base-case scenario *We have assumed that 65% of MVNO revenue will flow back to their telco partners as MVNOs could occupy 10% gross revenue share Source: DBS Bank With the revision of our base-case scenario for the Singapore Singapore, coupled with TPG’s on-going investments in mobile industry, we have revised down the potential revenue deploying a mobile network in Australia, could heavily weigh share grab of TPG by 2022 to just 4.0% from 5.5% before, on the telco’s balance sheet, making TPG a potential target after factoring in the MVNOs. Under our new base-case for acquisition. scenario, TPG could remain cash-flow negative till 2022, four years after its entry. Negative cash flow generation in TPG may not reach EBITDA breakeven revenue of ~S$150m by FY22F (previous estimate of FY21F revenue of S$156m) TPG- Base Case 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Revenue market share 0.0% 0.4% 1.3% 2.2% 3.1% 4.0% TPG revenue 0 15 47 75 102 128 EBITDA margin -150% -50% -40% -30% -20% Cash flow (Assumptions) EBITDA (breakeven at S$150m 0 -23 -23 -30 -31 -26 revenue) Capex (10-20% of revenue) -175 -125 -23 -23 -20 -19 Spectrum price -129 Free Cash Flow -304 -148 -47 -53 -51 -45 Source: DBS Bank Page 3 Page 3 Industry Focus Telecom Sector Emerging Industry trends – Mobile handset leasing plans, which could further incentivise subscribers to move away from bundled plans. Growing SIM-only plans gaining popularity. SIM-only subscribers adoption of SIM-only plans presents a challenge to operators, already account for ~12% of M1’s postpaid subscriber base with potential declines in mobile service revenues, dilution of (~83k subs) and a mid-single digit portion of Singtel’s ARPU and profitability, despite the elimination of handset subscriber base. SIM-only sales also contributed to ~18% of subsidies. Customer spend over the life of SIM-only contracts total plan sales of Singtel in 4Q18, up from 15% in the tends to be substantially lower than handset plans, and SIM- previous quarter.
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