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Singapore Telecom Sector Singapore Industry Focus Singapore Telecom Sector Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report DBS Group Research. Equity 25 Jan 2018 Opportunities from Mispricing STI : 3,609.24 • Mobile pricing onslaught started by M1 is likely to see Analyst competitive response in 2018. Sachin MITTAL +65 6682 3699 [email protected] • Buy Singtel – Sell StarHub. Singtel’s core business trading at ~50% discount to StarHub is an opportunity. Singtel offers 5% yield and is ahead of any other Asian telco in STOCKS the digital space. Buy Netlink for its 5.6% yield. 12-mth Price Mkt Cap Target Price Performance (%) M1 started the data pricing onslaught in Oct 2017; S$ US$m S$ 3 mth 12 mth Rating others have yet to respond. M1 cut data pricing sharply NetLink NBN Trust 0.83 2,474 0.95 0.0 N.A BUY (~16%-22% drop) in Oct 2017 with the launch of its Singtel 3.64 45,466 4.30 (2.4) (4.7) BUY mySIM* plans targeting high-data users. Clearly, M1 is M1 1.87 1,323 1.49 4.5 (11.4) FV StarHub 2.99 3,955 2.20 12.4 (4.5) FV making headway into the high-end segment with these Source: DBS Bank, Bloomberg Finance L.P. plans, making it imperative for its peers to respond or lose Closing price as of 24 Jan 2018 market share in our view. The entry of two new mobile virtual network operators (MVNOs) - Zero Mobile in Dec Forward EV/EBITDA – Singtel is trading near -2 standard deviation th 2017 & MyRepublic in 1Q18 - coupled with the entry of a 4 of its historic average mobile network operator (MNO) TPG in 4Q18 - will place (x) 11.0 further pressure on data yields in 2018. Singapore mobile segment accounts for ~80% of M1’s service revenue ~50% 10.5 of StarHub’s and ~13% of Singtel’s service revenue, 10.0 +2sd: 9.98x reflecting resilient business model of Singtel. 9.5 +1sd: 9.51x Buy Singtel – Sell StarHub. Singtel’s core business (Singtel’s Avg: 9.04x enterprise value minus associates market cap) is trading at 5.5x 9.0 FY19F EV/EBITDA vs 10.5x for StarHub as Singtel’s stock price has 8.5 -1sd: 8.57x not kept pace with the rise in the value of its associates. With 8.0 -2sd: 8.09x digital advertising business achieving EBITDA breakeven in 1Q18, investors are likely to appreciate rather than worry about its 7.5 digital businesses. In our proprietary Digital Prism Framework, 7.0 Singtel is ahead of any other Asian telco in the digital Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 transformation. StarHub’s stock price suggests that market has priced in ~20% revenue CAGR over FY18-21 for the enterprise Singtel’s core business (Singtel minus associates) is trading business versus our base-case forecast of 8%. On top of weak at a historic-high discount to its local peers mobile, StarHub’s go-to market strategy of bundling services also faces challenges from weakness in the Pay TV segment. NetLink NBN Trust (NLT) has ample debt headroom to support growth. We argue that NLT should trade at FY19F yield of 4.9% versus 5.6% currently. NLT’s FY19F total debt-to-EBITDA of 3.2x is far below the 5.3x average for business trusts implying room for higher growth by optimising its capital structure. Cost escalations to weigh on M1. Even in the unlikely scenario of M1’s EBITDA stabilising over FY18F/19F, its earnings will still decline due to high network and spectrum investments leading to higher depreciation, thus impacting dividends adversely. We Source: DBS Bank expect, M1’s EBITDA to contract at an annual rate of 3.0% over FY18-20F. ed: JS / sa:YM, PY, CS Page 1 Industry Focus Singapore Telecom Sector Table of Contents Mobile Segment 3 Pay TV Segment 5 Enteprise segment 6 Digital Transformation 6 Stock Selection 9 Peers Valuation 11 Company Guide NetLink NBN Trust 13 Singtel 23 M1 41 Starhub 50 Page 2 Industry Focus Singapore Telecom Sector Mobile Segment MyRepublic, known for its aggressive pricing strategies and generous data allowances, has a strong footing after securing M1 stirring up competition. Singtel and StarHub attempted to S$70m in funding from Singapore-based Makara Capital and is stabilise postpaid ARPUs in Aug-Sep 2017 by offering more likely to cause further woes in the already heated data market. bundled data, but with upward revision in package pricing. TPG will also start commercial operations by the end of 2018 as However, M1’s handset-based MySIM* plans that were the telco is required to provide outdoor mobile coverage by the launched in October offer more bundled data at a lower end of 2018 according to the IMDA and has earmarked S$ 200- package price. This effectively reduces the pricing of packages 300m for the deployment of its network in Singapore. by 16%-22% versus its older plans on our estimates, and Competition is expected to remain high in the medium term would lead to a dilution of M1’s postpaid ARPU. We believe specially among low-end, data heavy subscribers as the that with MySIMe, M1 is trying to shift its focus on locking-in saturated nature of the mobile market, with mobile penetration high value subscribers before competition in the low-end already at a peak at 150%, will result in new entrants resorting segment intensifies with the entry of MVNOs and TPG. Our to price competition to snatch subscribers from the incumbents. channel checks indicate that the uptake of MySIM plans has been positive and should allow M1 to extend its revenue share Entry of Zero Mobile unlikely to lead to much pain. Australian- gain of 60bps accumulated since 3Q16. We believe the based Zero Mobile launched mobile services in Singapore after cheaper MySIM plans will trigger a response from Singtel and reportedly having struck a MVNO deal with Singtel. Presently the StarHub in 1Q18 as the duo reacts to prevent further loss of company offers a limited number of subscriptions and one plan revenue share to M1. This coupled with the entry of at S$ 45 which offers 6GB of data (+3GB given out as a reward) MyRepublic in the first quarter 2018 could lead to a rough coupled with unlimited calls and SMS. The company aims to start for mobile operators in Singapore. capture subscribers through a reward based model, and gives a S$9 reduction on the monthly bill for each subscriber referred to M1 has reversed the trend of revenue share loss the company by a subscriber. Subscribers introducing 5 new customers (totaling S$45 in rewards) can therefore enjoy mobile Singapore mobile revenue share services free of charge. 60.0% 51.9% 52.2% 52.1% 52.6% 52.0% 52.2% 51.5% 51.8% Entry of Zero mobile is unlikely to disrupt the market in the short 50.0% term in our view. The S$45 plan offers little room for customisation and the incumbents’ offer similar if not better 40.0% data quotas at a similar price point, thus reducing the incentive 30.3% 30.3% 30.3% 30.8% 30.3% 30.8% 30.4% 29.9% for subscribers to switch operators. The relatively higher price 30.0% point of S$45 also makes the plan less attractive for young, data 17.8% 18.0% 17.7% 17.2% 17.2% 17.5% 17.7% 17.8% 20.0% savvy subscribers. 10.0% Similar SIM-only no-contract offerings by incumbents 0.0% Zero Mobile Circle.Life* Starhub** Singtel^ M1^^ 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 Price (S$) 45 48 44 46.75 40 Data 6GB 26GB 5GB 6GB 10GB Talktime (Mins) Unlimited 100 Unlimited 200 100 Source: Company, DBS Bank SMS Unlimited None None 1200 100 * - Base plan of Ciricle.life plus 20GB add-on available for S$20 Overcrowded market place? Singapore mobile industry will likely ** - Sim only "M" plans of Starhub. Starhub offers unlimited data on weekends add two new mobile service providers in 2018, doubling the ^ - Singtel Sim only plans with no contract with voice, SMS and data add-ons. number of service providers within a span of just three years. ^^ - MySim3 plans with no contract. December 2017 witnessed the entry of the second MVNO provider in Singapore, Zero Mobile, which has reportedly struck Source: Companies, DBS Bank a deal with Singtel to provide mobile services in the country. MyRepublic, which is rumored to have struck a MVNO deal with StarHub, is expected to enter the mobile sphere in early 2018 and TPG, the fourth full service mobile operator is expected to start offering services towards the later part of the year. Page 3 Industry Focus Singapore Telecom Sector Despite challenges TPG is on track to provide nationwide We believe data yields will continue to fall through 2018 with coverage in 2018. Despite the challenges faced in deploying a the entry of two new service providers, whose focus is likely greenfield mobile network, TPG is on track to meet the IMDA to be on acquisition of data heavy subscribers. Data yields in requirement of providing nationwide outdoor mobile India for example, declined by over 80% upon the entry of coverage by the end of 2018. TPG has to secure roof-top Reliance Jio, which entered the market with a Greenfield 4G space for an estimated 3,000 base stations by the end of network in 3Q16. While, Singapore is unlikely to witness such 2020 which remains a challenging and an expensive task in drastic drops, we believe data pricing will come under Singapore as building owners are not obliged to provide roof- pressure in 2018 and likely record a high single digit to low top space for mobile operators and often charge hefty rents double digit contraction.
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