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Singapore Telcos OVERWEIGHT

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Singapore Telcos OVERWEIGHT May 28, 2014 (Upgraded) Singapore Telcos OVERWEIGHT Analyst All in; SingTel raised to BUY Gregory Yap . Raise sector weighting to OVERWEIGHT as we upgrade SingTel (65) 6432 1450 Singapore [email protected] to BUY. M1 remains our preferred BUY, followed by SingTel. | . M1 will enjoy stronger EPS CAGR of 8.5% over FY14E-16E, while SingTel is on the cusp of an earnings recovery of 5% EPS CAGR after three consecutive years of earnings decline. Growth pillars: Data monetisation and falling handset subsidies, with data roaming rebound a bonus. RESEARCH Upgrade SingTel to BUY, sector to OVERWEIGHT We upgrade SingTel to BUY with a SOTP-based TP of SGD4.35. We are now BUYers of all the three telcos, prompting us to raise the sector to OVERWEIGHT. In terms of preference, M1 remains our top SECTOR choice, followed by SingTel which displaces StarHub to the third position. Despite challenges on the Pay TV and home broadband front, StarHub remains a BUY. We believe Si ngTel’s YTD under- performance and current low market expectations provide room for the stock to be re-rated ahead of StarHub. Alignment of positive trends In our view, the building blocks are fast falling in place and were evident in 1Q14 results. Data monetisation accelerated in 1Q14, driving mobile revenue to record levels with growth rate at its fastest in more than four quarters. Tiered data plan users have also hit new highs of more than 50%, and we expect 70% by year- end. Fast-falling handset subsidies are another positive trend that would benefit margins. Lastly, data roaming has finally stabilized after six quarters of Yo Y decline. The upshot: Stronger earnings growth prospects for the industry. Catalysts: (1) Data monetisation could take place faster than expected with emphasis on video content to drive data usage. Both SingTel and StarHub are developing more local content for their apps. (2) Data roaming could make a comeback on plans to make it easier to activate or even kick in automatically when users are overseas. (3) Low levels of gearing, especially for M1 and StarHub, and the absence of large capex requirements in the medium term suggest room for higher dividends ahead. Estimates & TP changes Risks: As the telcos expand the capabilities of their networks to -- FY14E EPS – --Target price – handle newer services such as VoLTE (Voice over LTE) and the (SGD) (SGD) greater demand for video content, there could be network Old New % Chg Old New % Chg outages. Regulatory fines aside, the key risk lies in higher user M1 18.5 18.5 0.0% 3.86 4.24 10% churn owing to unstable networks. One risk particular to SingTel is SingTel 22.9 23.7 3.5% 3.60 4.35 21% an acquisition of Shin Corp as was rumoured a few months ago, StarHub 22.4 22.0 -1.9% 4.98 4.87 -2% which we would view cautiously if it materialises. Source: Maybank KE Stock Mkt cap Rating Price TP Upside P/E (x) P/B (x) Dividend yld (%) (USD'm) (LC) (LC) (%) 14E 15E 14E 15E 14E 15E SingTel 49,245.1 Buy 3.87 4.35 12 16.9 16.3 2.6 2.5 4.3 4.6 StarHub 5,691.5 Buy 4.14 4.87 18 18.9 18.0 61.7 43.2 4.8 4.8 M1 2,572.8 Buy 3.49 4.24 21 18.8 16.9 7.9 7.3 4.2 4.7 SEE PAGE 31 FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS Co. Reg No: 198700034E MICA (P) : 099/03/2012 Singapore Telcos Upgrade SingTel to BUY, sector to OVERWEIGHT We upgrade SingTel to BUY from HOLD. With this upgrade, we now have BUY calls on all the three telcos, prompting us to upgrade our sector weighting to an OVERWEIGHT. Our order of preference is M1, SingTel and StarHub. • M1 (BUY, TP raised to SGD4.24) is still our preferred pick as it is the largest beneficiary of the move toward monetising the strong growth in data usage. Its mobile growth has been the strongest of the three telcos and we expect it to remain so. In addition, lower handset subsidies as well as any ARPU uplift from 4G VAS charging would be an added benefit given its smaller revenue size. In short, M1 will get more bang for the buck for every dollar of revenue. Finally, its low gearing (FY14E: 0.7x net debt/EBITDA) suggests room for larger dividend payout in the future. • SingTel (BUY, TP raised to SGD4.35) has been upgraded to BUY and is now our second preferred telco after M1. We switch our valuation method for SingTel to SOTP framework to better reflect the underlying value of its regional associates. The change lifts our TP to SGD4.35 from SGD3.60. We believe SingTel is starting to rev up its growth engines again following the stabilisation of regional currencies. Our forecast calls for a 5% EPS growth pa in the next three years, reversing three years of earnings contraction. With rising earnings, dividends should also rise, improving yield to 5% and more over the next three years. • StarHub (BUY, TP trimmed to SGD4.87) is still a BUY. Despite growth challenges it faces in Pay TV and home broadband (17% and 10% of service revenue respectively), we think it will perform within expectations, namely revenue growth is expected to be in the low teens, driven by mobile and fixed network services (56% and 17% of service revenue respectively) while EBITDA margin could exceed its full-year guidance of 32%. In addition, its low gearing (FY14E: 0.6x net debt/EBITDA) suggests room for higher dividend payout in the future. However, we cut our FY14E forecast by 2% on a higher tax rate. It is now our least preferred exposure. Between StarHub and SingTel, the latter appeals to us more given current low market expectations, suggesting greater scope for earnings upgrades, paving the stock to be re-rated ahead of StarHub. May 28, 2014 2 Singapore Telcos 1Q14: Inflection point 1Q14 was a critical quarter for the Singapore telcos, as the medium- term positive trends that we highlighted last year are getting more visible, and M1, our top pick and primary beneficiary, delivered the strongest earnings growth of 5%. This was borne out in its strong earnings beat in 1Q14, while StarHub’s results were within expectations and SingTel below. The positive industry trends were: • Data monetisation gained further ground. More than half of postpaid users took up the data tiered plans with a healthy percentage exceeding basic data caps. This drove postpaid mobile revenue growth to the fastest pace in the past two years. Although IDA did not allow Starhub to raise 4G rates for existing contracts, this did not affect new & re-contracting subscribers. This will further boost mobile revenue. • Handset subsidies in freefall. The latest round of subsidies for popular handset models such as Samsung Galaxy, iPhone and HTC is the lowest ever. We expect this trend to prevail, as it is part of a global trend. This has manifested in improving margins. • Roaming revenue has finally stabilised after six quarters of YoY decline. Roaming revenue has stabilised in 1Q14, according to our coverage universe, following the launch of comprehensive roaming plans that went a long way to address ‘bill shock’ fears among consumers. On the neutral front, • Pay TV still locked in a stalemate. SingTel continued its dominance of the sports headlines with rich deals such as the World Cup. Notwithstanding, this did not seem to have affected StarHub whose subscriber numbers and ARPU remained relatively stable. This has raised doubts over the effectiveness of SingTel’s strategy. Presumably, this will work at some point but StarHub is also quietly making content moves on the side as a counterbalance. • Fixed network still held back by provisioning bottlenecks. More building owners have started to connect to the national fibre broadband network but provisioning bottleneck remains. On the brighter side, however, increased penetration into the enterprise space has also encouraged more postpaid mobile revenue from corporate users. Lastly, the following concerns showed no signs of going away. • Fixed broadband market stayed competitive. Small start-ups such as MyRepublic have gone all out with low-price bundles and even offer to buy existing contracts’ early termination charges. • Prepaid mobile did not do well. Tighter immigration policies in Singapore have continued to reduce the available pool of prepaid mobile users. In addition, even prepaid subscribers are starting to use OTT apps to communicate, dampening prepaid voice revenue. May 28, 2014 3 Singapore Telcos Data monetisation – Can’t stop this More than half of all postpaid users in Singapore have hopped on to tiered mobile data plans. About a year since tiered data plans were launched in Sep 2012 and unlimited plans were removed, the percentage of such users has increased dramatically in the past two quarters. This has been primarily driven by the migration to 4G from 3G. This is in-line with our expectations that 4G adoption will take place much faster than 3G. At this pace, we expect more than 70% of all postpaid users to be on tiered data plans by year-end. Figure 1: M1 – Postpaid subscribers on tiered data plans Figure 2: StarHub - Postpaid subscribers on tiered plans M1 leads the data monetisation trend with 54% of postpaid StarHub follows close behind with 52% of postpaid subscribers subscribers on tiered plans. 8.6% of these users have exceeded on tiered plans. 9.4% of these users have exceeded basic data basic data caps and pay excess charges of SGD10.70 a month.
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