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Wired Weekly Singapore Traders Spectrum Wired Weekly Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report DBS Group Research . Equity 27 Feb 2017 KEY POINTS Straits Times Index FTSE Small Cap Index STI – Short-term outlook turning choppy from 3,200 ST Index 410 FTSE Small Cap Index • 3050 to 3150, firm support at 3000 3,100 400 3,000 Good newsflow on M&As and privatisations– Our • 2,900 picks are Courts Asia, PACC Offshore, Mermaid 390 2,800 Maritime, CSE Global and Sinostar PEC 2,700 380 2,600 370 Singapore Market Summary 2,500 2,400 360 Signs of a choppy March Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16 Nov-16 Feb-17 Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16 Nov-16 Feb-17 STI’s decline of 20 points last Friday off the 3140 level could well be an early warning of a choppy March. Our STI and 12-mth forward PE Brent Crude Oil 3,800 US$/barrel 65 Brent Crude Oil technical view remains for the current year-to-date rally to 3,600 +1SD @ 15.2x 60 3,400 come to a pause around the 3150 level. We peg a short- 55 3,200 Avg @ 13.6x 50 term range from 3050 to 3150 with firm support at 3000, 3,000 45 2,800 which coincides closely with the current 13.26x (-0.25SD) -1SD @ 12.1x 40 2,600 12-month forward PE. 35 2,400 30 - 2SD @ 10.6x 2,200 25 The uncertainties over a possible rate hike in March and Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16 Nov-16 Feb-17 the French elections in April has offset optimism that the Source: Datastream, DBS Bank Singapore economy is turning for the better, and support for the April-May ex-dividend period. Equity markets may FTSE Indices’ 5-Day Performance have to get pass the March FOMC meeting and the April Index @ 1 Wk % YTD % French elections before resuming their climb. Our year- FTSE Sectoral Indices 24-Feb-17 Chg Chg end STI objective is 3250 based on 13.64x (average) STI 3117.03 0.3 8.2 FY18F PE. Mid Cap 713.21 0.1 5.1 Small Cap 398.11 0.1 5.2 Week in review All Share 759.43 0.1 7.7 The benchmark Straits Times Index ended the previous China 217.37 -2.0 6.7 week up a modest 10 points. UOB, property stocks City Real Estate 759.5 0.5 8.7 Developments and Capitaland as well as yards Keppel Real Estate & Dev 804.18 1.2 14.4 Corp and Sembcorp Industries led the gains. Crude Palm Real Estate Inv Trust 738.5 -0.1 4.1 Oil (CPO) stocks Wilmar International and Golden Agri as Oil & Gas 390.81 4.6 17.6 well as Jardine C&C and Jardine Matheson led the Basic Materials 114.33 -1.1 16.8 decliners. Industrials 778.02 -1.7 8.3 Our call last week that the O&G sector is poised to Consumer Goods 546.83 -3.0 5.4 overtake property as the top performing sector proved Health Care 1453.96 -2.7 0.7 timely. The FTSE ST Oil & Gas Index (FSTOG) rallied 4.5% Consumer Service 753.52 0.4 2.5 week-on-week powered by the three yards - Keppel Corp, Telecommunication 998.98 -0.9 7.9 Sembcorp Industries and Sembcorp Marine - as well as oil Utilities 356.54 -3.5 -0.9 services stocks such as Ezion. Year-to-date, the FSTOG is F inancials 843.34 1.0 8.1 Technology 237.68 -1.5 9.7 up 17%. Sentiment in the sector was fired up after Sembcorp Marine reported no major impairments for its Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. results for the December quarter. This lifted optimism that the worst of the asset impairments may have passed. Yeo Kee Yan (65) 6682 3706 [email protected] ed: JS / sa: JC, PY Singapore Traders Spectrum Wired Weekly FTSE ST Indices relative performance O&G Source: DBS Bank M&A and privatization news flow remain active review of its business, in line with its commitment to enhance shareholder value. Newsflow on potential M&As and privatisations continued last week with the Chairman and Non-Independent Non-Executive Our SMC (small-mid-cap) team recently highlighted five small Director of Global Premium Hotels making a voluntary cap companies that could potentially see privatisation and conditional offer for the Group for S$0.365 in cash per share. take-over offers (refer to table below) Separately, Q&M Dental Group said its conducting a strategic SMC team’s top 5 privatisation/take-over candidates Price Companies Rcmd TP ($) Comments ($) 1) Compelling valuations of 8x FY18F PE and 0.8x P/BV. 2) 74.3% owned by Singapore Retail Group; the outlay required to acquire the Courts Asia 0.455 Buy 0.51 remaining shares does not seem excessive in our view (c.S$58m, and approximately 2.3x FY18F net profit based on current share price) 1) Trades at >50% discount to book value PACC 2) Approximately 81.9% owned by Kuok group Offshore 0.365 Buy 0.42 3) POSH is a more stable long-term bet versus peers with no immediate debt (POSH) concerns, and has also demonstrated ability to secure work for its vessels amid an anaemic market 1) c.87.3% held by the Thoresen group and its related management. With c. S$270m in cash on hand, the Thoresen group has Mermaid 0.21 Buy 0.24 the necessary ammunition to take Mermaid private Maritime 2) Very low debt level versus peers, and net gearing of only 0.11x as at end Sep 2016, which adds to Mermaid’s attractiveness as a privatisation candidate 1) Net cash represents 20% of market cap, trading at 0.9x P/B, 6.5% dividend yield, and a reasonable PE of 11x. CSE Global 0.485 Buy 0.41 2) Free float of over 50% and with no single shareholder holding more than 15%, CSE is a potential take-over target 1) Based in Shandong, China, Sinostar produces petrochemical products in two locations. 2) Trading below book at 0.8x P/B, and under 7x Sinostar PEC 0.19 NA NA PE, while trading nearly at net cash per share. 3) Single largest shareholder, the Chairman, owns over 50% of the company. Source: DBS Bank Page 2 Singapore Traders Spectrum Wired Weekly Shanghai Composite Index Hang Seng Index Taiwan Index 3,500 Shanghai Comp Index 25,000 Hang Seng Index 10,000 Taiwan Index 3,300 9,600 23,000 9,200 3,100 21,000 8,800 2,900 8,400 2,700 19,000 8,000 2,500 17,000 7,600 Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16 Nov-16 Feb-17 Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16 Nov-16 Feb-17 Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16 Nov-16 Feb-17 12 mth: 12.3% YTD: 5.1% 12 mth: 24.7% YTD: 10.0% 12 mth: 17.3% YTD: 5.7% 1 mth: 4.0% 1 Wk: 1.5% 1 mth: 5.7% 1 Wk: 0.9% 1 mth: 3.8% 1 Wk: -0.2% Nikkei Index Dow Jones Industrials NASDAQ Index 21,000 Nikkei 225 Index 22,000 Dow J ones 6,200 Nasdaq 6,000 20,000 21,000 5,800 19,000 20,000 5,600 18,000 19,000 5,400 5,200 17,000 18,000 5,000 16,000 17,000 4,800 4,600 15,000 16,000 4,400 14,000 15,000 4,200 Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16 Nov-16 Feb-17 Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16 Nov-16 Feb-17 Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16 Nov-16 Feb-17 12 mth: 20.7% YTD: 1.4% 12 mth: 26.4% YTD: 5.1% 12 mth: 30.1% YTD: 8.9% 1 mth: 2.6% 1 Wk: -0.3% 1 mth: 4.9% 1 Wk: 0.8% 1 mth: 5.5% 1 Wk: 0.7% USD/SGD USD/JPY Euro/USD 1.46 usd/SGD 122 usd/J PY 1.16 Euro/USD 1.44 1.14 118 1.42 1.12 114 1.40 1.10 1.38 110 1.08 1.36 1.06 106 1.34 1.04 102 1.32 1.02 1.30 98 1.00 Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16 Nov-16 Feb-17 Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16 Nov-16 Feb-17 Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16 Nov-16 Feb-17 12 mth: 0.4% YTD: -2.5% 12 mth: 1.1% YTD: -3.1% 12 mth: -4.4% YTD: 0.0% 1 mth: -0.9% 1 Wk: -0.5% 1 mth: 0.5% 1 Wk: -0.8% 1 mth: -1.9% 1 Wk: -0.3% USD/RMB SGD/RMB AUD/SGD 7.00 usd/RMB 5.00 sgd/RMB 1.12 A$/SGD 6.90 1.10 4.90 6.80 1.08 6.70 4.80 1.06 6.60 4.70 1.04 6.50 1.02 4.60 6.40 1.00 6.30 4.50 0.98 Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16 Nov-16 Feb-17 Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16 Nov-16 Feb-17 Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16 Nov-16 Feb-17 12 mth: 5.4% YTD: -1.0% 12 mth: 4.6% YTD: 0.9% 12 mth: 7.7% YTD: 4.3% 1 mth: 0.3% 1 Wk: 0.1% 1 mth: 0.4% 1 Wk: 0.5% 1 mth: 1.6% 1 Wk: 0.1% Source: Datastream, DBS Bank Page 3 Singapore Traders Spectrum Wired Weekly Baltic Dry Index Volatility Index Fed Funds Rate 1,400 Baltic Dry Index 28 V olatility Index 0.80 Fed Funds Rate 0.70 1,200 24 0.60 1,000 20 0.50 800 0.40 16 600 0.30 0.20 400 12 0.10 200 8 0.00 Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16 Nov-16 Feb-17 Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16 Nov-16 Feb-17 Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16 Nov-16 Feb-17 12 mth: 153.5% YTD: -16.1% 1 mth: -11.8% 1 Wk: 17.2% Brent Crude Oil Palm Oil Soya Oil US$/barrel US$/ton US$/Ib 65 Brent Crude Oil Palm Oil Soy a Oil 800 0.38 60 750 0.36 55 50 700 0.34 45 650 0.32 40 600 0.30 35 30 550 0.28 25 500 0.26 Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16 Nov-16 Feb-17 Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16 Nov-16 Feb-17 Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16 Nov-16 Feb-17 12 mth: 67.4% YTD: -1.6% 12 mth: 18.1% YTD: -3.6% 12 mth: 6.9% YTD: -6.1% 1 mth: 0.6% 1 Wk: -0.2% 1 mth: -6.4% 1 Wk: -6.7% 1 mth: -8.8% 1 Wk: -3.1% Aluminium Tin Steel US$/MT US$/MT Index Aluminium Tin Steel 1,700 24,000 105 100 1,650 22,000 95 1,600 20,000 90 85 1,550 18,000 80 1,500 16,000 75 70 1,450 14,000 65 1,400 12,000 60 Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16 Nov-16 Feb-17 Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16 Nov-16 Feb-17 Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16 Nov-16 Feb-17 12 mth: 5.7% YTD: 6.6% 12 mth: 19.2% YTD: -9.0% 1 mth: 3.0% 1 Wk: 0.0% 1 mth: -4.1% 1 Wk: -2.8% Copper Nickel Gold US$/MT US$/MT US$/Ounce Copper Nickel Gold 6,200 12,000 1,400 1,350 5,800 11,000 1,300 5,400 10,000 1,250 5,000 9,000 1,200 1,150 4,600 8,000 1,100 4,200 7,000 1,050 Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16 Nov-16 Feb-17 Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16 Nov-16 Feb-17 Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16 Nov-16 Feb-17 12 mth: 29.6% YTD: 9.1% 12 mth: 25.2% YTD: 7.9% 12 mth: 0.7% YTD: 6.6% 1 mth: 4.4% 1 Wk: -0.4% 1 mth: 11.4% 1 Wk: -1.1% 1 mth: 1.4% 1 Wk: 0.5% Source: Datastream, DBS Bank Page 4 Singapore Traders Spectrum Wired Weekly Straits Times Index Last Day Avg Vol for Rel STI Rel STI Rel STI Actual Last Price Vol the Week MTD QTD YTD Mkt Cap S/No.
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