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Ali Syedubaid U 2020 Masters.Pdf (5.599Mo) MODELLING LONG HAUL TRUCK ROUTE CHOICE IN ONTARIO SYED UBAID ALI A THESIS SUBMITTED TO THE FACULTY OF GRADUATE STUDIES IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF APPLIED SCIENCE GRADUATE PROGRAM IN CIVIL ENGINEERING YORK UNIVERSITY TORONTO, ONTARIO September 2020 © Syed Ubaid Ali, 2020 Abstract A route choice model is developed in this thesis to explain and predict long-haul truck vehicle movements in Ontario. An algorithm is devised to process approximately 58,000 observed trips from GPS data in ArcGIS to establish variable choice sets based on an optimal commonality factor that measures route overlap. Novel implications of the commonality factor add to the existing literature. Route characteristics are next used to estimate a C-logit model. Results indicate that truck drivers are more likely to select routes exhibiting lower minimum travel times, more freeway and Highway 401 usage, more diesel stations, and fewer intersections. The travel time is the most dominant variable based on measurements of elasticity. Two scenarios are tested using the final model to determine routing changes due to increased travel time on Highway 401 and other freeways. Further detailed scenarios can be used to predict long-haul trucking patterns for future transportation planning purposes. ii Dedication to my parents iii Acknowledgments I am grateful to Dr. Kevin Gingerich for inspiring this thesis and his continuous guidance throughout my MASc. program. Through his instruction and advice, I learned the art of conducting research and solving interesting problems. I also thank him for teaching me how to use ArcGIS, a software that I always feared and avoided until now. He also got me involved with the ITE York University Student Chapter, which has given me great exposure and contributed to me getting the most out my graduate program. I would also like to thank Dr. Peter Park and Dr. Mehdi Nourinejad for their support and providing the critique necessary to ensure the quality and thoroughness of this work. I thank Rob Reynolds for setting up my workstation with the software necessary for this research and providing immediate solutions for any issues I encountered. I am also thankful to Sindy Mahal for her timely reminders and support. I thank my colleagues (friends) for their encouragement and help throughout my time at York University: Seun Oluwajana, Erik Nevland, Ravichandra Rampure, Crystal Wang, Ahmad Mohammadi, Soha Saiyed, MD Tanvir Chowdhury, Yashar Zarrin Zadeh, Danelle Bishoff, Elanakayon Annalingam, Ucchas Saha, Pushpendra Sharma, Nora Liu, and Khlood Azam. I am grateful to my parents for encouraging me to enroll in this program and pursue higher level education iv Table of Contents Abstract ........................................................................................................................................... ii Dedication ...................................................................................................................................... iii Acknowledgments ........................................................................................................................... iv Table of Contents ............................................................................................................................. v List of Tables ................................................................................................................................ viii List of Figures .................................................................................................................................. x List of Acronyms and Abbreviations ............................................................................................ xii List of Appendices ........................................................................................................................ xiv Chapter 1: Introduction ................................................................................................................ 1 Freight Transportation in Canada ...................................................................................... 1 Research Goal .................................................................................................................... 4 Research Objectives .......................................................................................................... 4 Research Scope .................................................................................................................. 6 Thesis Outline .................................................................................................................... 7 Chapter 2: Literature Review ....................................................................................................... 9 Safety Considerations ...................................................................................................... 10 2.1.1 Geometric Features .................................................................................................. 10 2.1.2 Volume Characteristics ............................................................................................ 11 2.1.3 Payload ..................................................................................................................... 12 2.1.4 Driver Fatigue .......................................................................................................... 13 Modelling Techniques ..................................................................................................... 14 2.2.1 Discrete Choice Model Types .................................................................................. 16 2.2.2 Simplified Commonality Factor ............................................................................... 18 2.2.3 Choice Set Generation .............................................................................................. 21 2.2.4 Software ................................................................................................................... 24 Truck Route Choice Factors ............................................................................................ 24 2.3.1 Geometric Design ..................................................................................................... 25 2.3.2 Route Performance ................................................................................................... 26 2.3.3 Facilities ................................................................................................................... 27 Chapter 3: Study Area and Data ................................................................................................ 28 Data Requirements .......................................................................................................... 29 3.1.1 GPS Data .................................................................................................................. 29 v 3.1.2 Road Network Data .................................................................................................. 31 3.1.3 GPS Data Map-Matching ......................................................................................... 31 Thesis Data ...................................................................................................................... 32 3.2.1 Truck Trip GPS Data ................................................................................................ 33 3.2.2 Ontario Road Network Data ..................................................................................... 35 3.2.3 Additional GIS Data ................................................................................................. 36 Trip Statistics by Zone ..................................................................................................... 36 Chapter 4: Choice Set Generation .............................................................................................. 39 Choice Set Generation Algorithm ................................................................................... 39 Iterate algorithm for each OD Pair .................................................................................. 47 Computation and Model Run-time .................................................................................. 48 Commonality Factor Statistics on Processed Routes ...................................................... 49 Chapter 5: Analysis of Route Characteristics ............................................................................ 52 Average Distance, Travel Time, and Speed .................................................................... 52 Route Reliability .............................................................................................................. 56 Usage of Freeways ........................................................................................................... 57 Number of Intersections .................................................................................................. 60 Usage of Tolled Roads .................................................................................................... 61 Gas Stations ..................................................................................................................... 62 Weigh Stations ................................................................................................................. 63 Chapter 6: Route Choice Model Estimation .............................................................................
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