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The Population of Pakistan

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The Population of Pakistan World Population Year THE POPULATION OF KISTAI enes PAKISTAN INSTITUTE OF DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS ISLAMABAD THE POPULATION OF PAKISTAN MOHAMMAD AFZAL with the cooperation of MAZHAR HUSSAIN C.I.C.R.E.D. Series 1974 :'.'•] PRINTED AT FEROZSONS LTD., RAWALPINDI FOREWORD This study is the most comprehensive work in the field of population under- taken by the Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad with the cooperation of the Social Sciences Research Centre, University of the Punjab, Lahore during 1973-74. The study is one of many similar studies in a series of country monographs prepared under the auspices of the Committee for Inter- national Coordination of National Research in Demography (CICRED) during the World Population Year 1974. By surveying existing information on the population of Pakistan, the mono- graph brings together, in one volume, information on current and past population size, demographic characteristics, geographical distribution and trends in popula- tion change. In addition, it discusses relationship between population growth and social and economic development as well as population policies and programmes. The study provides valuable information on demographic research carried out in. Pakistan. At the same time, it provides insights into some of the inadequacies of demographic data particularly in the areas of fertility and mortality levels and differentials. It should be possible to revise this study when the detailed data of 1972 Census, the Census Evaluation Survey and the post-censal Housing, Economic and Demographic Survey become available. However, in spite of the limitations due to the non-availability of timely data, the study will be found useful by all interested in Pakistan's population problems. M. L. Qureshi Director Pakistan Institute of Development Economics Islamabad ACKNOWLEDGEMENT In preparing this monograph a number of research studies by various scholar have been referred to. In particular, mention is made of the Ph.D. dissertations by M. R. Khan and G. M. Farooq; and research papers by M. L. Qureshi, M. K. H. Khan, Sultan S. Hashmi and A. D. Bhatti which have been frequently quoted for the preparation of the monograph. To all these the author owes special thanks. The author also wishes to convey his gratitude for the valuable comments received from Jawaid Azfar, Mujtiba Mirza and Robert Gardner. He is particu- larly thankful to J. Gilbert Hardee for his valuable suggestions to improve the original draft and also appreciate the comments and suggestions by Iqbal Alam, Mehtab S. Karim and Anwar Ghaudry. The author wishes to express his deep gratitude to M. L. Qureshi, Director, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, who has been a continuous source of inspiration and guidance at all stages of the study. He is also highly grateful to S. H. H. Naqavi for his editorial help. Mohammad Afzal August 8, 1974. Senior Research Demographer Pakistan Institute of Development Economics Islamabad ii CONTENTS Page Foreword .. .. .. .. .. .. i Acknowledgement .. .. .. .. .. ii List of Tables .. .. .. .. .. .. vi List of Figures .. .. • • • • . • .. ix CHAPTER I. POPULATION GROWTH .. .. .. .. 1 (a) Historical . • • • • • . 1 (b) Current ., .. •• •• .. 2 Levels of Growth Suggested by Census Totals .. .. 4 Growth Rates from the PGE and the PGS .. .. 5 II. COMPONENTS OF GROWTH .. .. .. 9 (a) Fertility .. .. • • •. • • 9 Age at Marriage .. 12 Differential Fertility . 15 (b) Mortality .. .•-.-.-• • •• 17 Age Specific Mortality Rates .. .. • . 19 Infant Mortality Rates .. .. .. 20 Mortality Past Infancy .. .. 20 Life Expectancy and Risks of Death . .. 21 (c) International Migration .. .. .. 23 Migration between Pakistan and India ... ... 26 Migration between Pakistan and.Bangladesh' .. .. 28 External Migration to Countries outside the Subcontinent 29 III. POPULATION COMPOSITION .. .. .. 30 (a) Age and Sex .. .. .. .. .. 30 Sex Ratio .. .. .. .. .. 30 Age Distribution •.•.'" .. .. .. 32 Overall Age-Sex Patterns, 1901 through 1961 .. .. 36 Pre-School Age Population .. .. .. 39 School Age Population .. .. .. .. • 40 Women of Child Bearing Age .. .. .. 41 Population at Working Age .. 41 ; (b) Marital Status .. .. .. .. .. 42 (c) Household and Family .. .. .. 46 (d) Ethnicity, Race and Religion .. .. 48 (e) Education .. .. .. .. 50 Enrolment Status of School Age Population .. .. 50 IV. POPULATION DISTRIBUTION AND INTERNAL MIGRATION 53 Population Distribution .. .. .. 53 (a) Regional .. .. .. .. 53 Population Density .. .. 54 (b) Urban-Rural Migration .. .. .. 55 Population Growth in Cities and Metropolitan Areas.. 57 Internal Migration .. .. .. .. 57 Migration Estimates from Age Data .. .. .. 59 Migration Estimates from Place-of-Birth Data .. .. 62 Life-time Inter-provincial Migration .. .. .. 62 Inter-censal Inter-provincial Migration .. .. 62 Summary of Migration Estimates .. .. .. 67 Rural-Urban Migration .. .. .. 70 V. THE LABOUR FORCE .. .. : .. ..76 : (a) Composition of Labour Force .. .. .. 77 (b) Agricultural and Non-Agricultural Labour Force .. .. 80 iv (c) Employment Status .. .. .. .. 81 (d) Status Composition .. .. .. 82 (e) Occupation and Industry .. .. .. 83 (f ) Age-Sex Distribution of Labour Force .. .. 84 Age-Sex Specific Activity Rates .. .. .. 85 VI. POPULATION PROJECTIONS .. .. .. 88 VII. ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL IMPLICATIONS AND POLICY .. 92 (a) Economic and Social Implications of Population Growth .. 92 93 Gross National Product .. ; • • Savings and Investment .. .. .. 93 Availability of Wheat .. .. .. .. 94 Availability of Cloth .. .. .. .. 94 Housing .. .. .. .. , 94 Primary Education .. .. .. 94 Medical Facilities .. .. .. • .. 94 Transportation ... .. .. .. 95 (b) Population Policy as Element in Social and Economic Policy .. 95 APPENDICES A. A BRIEF HISTORY OF CENSUS TAKING IN PAKISTAN 99 B. A BRIEF HISTORY OF VITAL REGISTRATION IN PAKISTAN .. .. .. .. ..102 LIST OF TABLES TABLE Page 1. Population Growth in Pakistan .. .. .. /,..-.' 2 2. 1972. Projected Population and Census Population .. ... 6 3. Average Crude Birth and Death Rates in Pakistan from the PGE 1962-65 and from the PGS for 1968 and 1971 Average .. .. 7 4. Age Specific Fertility and Marital Fertility Rates Based on the PGE . , 1963-65 CS Average and the PGS, 1968 and 1971 Average .. 10 5. Average Age at Marriage for Males and Females in Karachi, Lahore and Sheikhupura Rural .. .. .. 14 6. Average Age at Marriage of Males and Females by Socio-Economic Areas in Karachi .. .. .. .. .. 15 7. Average Age Specific Mortality Rates (CD) for Pakistan from the PGE, 1962-65 and the PGS, 1968 and 1971 .. .. .. 19 8. Age-Sex Specific Mortality Rates (CD) by Broad Age Groups for Pakistan: 1962-65 .. .. .. .. ..21 9. Abridged Life Table for Pakistan: 1962-65 .. .. ..22 10. Intercensal External Migration betwen Pakistan, its Provinces and India: 1901-11, 1911-21 and 1941-51 .. .. .. 27 11. Intercensal Migration between Pakistan and Bangladesh: 1901- 1911, 1911-1921 and 1951-61 .. .. .. ..28 12. Sex Ratios in Census Populations of Pakistan and Provinces: 1901 through 1972 .. .. .. .. 31 13. Age-Sex Distribution of the Population of Pakistan in 1951 and 1961 Censuses with Percentage Change over 1951-61 .. .. 34 VI 14. Percentage Distribution of 1951 and 1961 Censuses by Age and Sex with Change over 1951-61 .. .. .. 35 15. Age-Sex Percentage Distribution of Pakistan from Census data: 1901 through 1951 .. .. .. .. 37 16. Age Specific Sex Ratios (Males per thousand Females) in Pakistan from Census Data 1901 through 1961 _ .. 38 17. Percentage Distribution of Population by Board Age Groups: 1951-61 .. .. .. .. .. 41 18. Percentage Distribution of the Male and Female Population, 10 years of Age and over, by Marital Status and Age Group for Pakistan: 1951 and 1961 ... ... .. 43 19. Percentage Distribution of Households in Pakistan by Number of Persons: 1960 .. .. .. „ 47 20. Percentage of Families by Type in Pakistan: 1960 .. .. 49 21. School Enrolments by Age and Stage/Level of Education in Pakistan: 1965 and 1970 .. ... .. 51 22. Intercensal Population Growth in Pakistan and Provinces: 1951-61 and 1961-72 .. .. .. .. 53 23. Population Density in Pakistan and Provinces: 1961 and 1972 .. 55 24. Urban-Rural Distribution and Intercensal Growth Population of Pakistan: 1901 through 1972 .. .. .. 56 25. Population of Cities/Metropolitan Areas in Pakistan: 1961 and 1972 .. .. .. .. _ 58 26. Intercensal Net Migration Estimates to Provinces and Districts of Pakistan, from within Pakistan and India, obtained from Age Data: 1901-11 through 1951-61 .. .. .. 60 27. Life-time Inter-Provincial Migration in Pakistan: 1901, 1911, 1921 1951 and 1961. ._ .. .. .. 63 VII 28. Intercensal Internal Migration Between Different Provinces of Pakistan: 1901-11, 1911-21 and 1951-61 (From Place-of-Birth Data) .. .. .. .. .. ..66 29. Intercensal Net Migrants to Pakistan from India from Age Data and Place-of-Birth Data from Census: 1901-11 through 1951-61 .. 68 30. Net Migration to Urban Areas in Pakistan, its Provinces and Districts during the Intercensal Periods: 1901-11 through 1951-61 .. 72 31. Net Migrants of Ages 10 and over to Urban Areas by Provinces in Pakistan: 1951-61 .. .. .. ..74 32. Net Migration of Males to Cities and Increase in Male Non- Agricultural Labour Force: 1951-61 .. .. .. 75 33. Proportions of Population in Labour Force by Sex and Rural- Urban Areas in Pakistan: 1961 .. .. .. .. 77 34. Population, Labour Force and Crude Labour Force Participation Rates by Sex in Pakistan: 1901-1961 .. .. ..78 35. Crude Labour Force Participation Rates
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