The Population of Pakistan

Home , Census in Pakistan

World Population Year

THE POPULATION OF KISTAI

enes PAKISTAN INSTITUTE OF DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS ISLAMABAD

THE POPULATION OF PAKISTAN

MOHAMMAD AFZAL

with the cooperation of MAZHAR HUSSAIN

C.I.C.R.E.D. Series 1974

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PRINTED AT FEROZSONS LTD., RAWALPINDI FOREWORD

This study is the most comprehensive work in the field of population undertaken by the Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad with the cooperation of the Social Sciences Research Centre, University of the Punjab, Lahore during 1973-74. The study is one of many similar studies in a series of country monographs prepared under the auspices of the Committee for Inter- national Coordination of National Research in Demography (CICRED) during the World Population Year 1974.

By surveying existing information on the population of Pakistan, the monograph brings together, in one volume, information on current and past population size, demographic characteristics, geographical distribution and trends in population change. In addition, it discusses relationship between population growth and social and economic development as well as population policies and programmes. The study provides valuable information on demographic research carried out in. Pakistan. At the same time, it provides insights into some of the inadequacies of demographic data particularly in the areas of fertility and mortality levels and differentials. It should be possible to revise this study when the detailed data of 1972 Census, the Census Evaluation Survey and the post-censal Housing, Economic and Demographic Survey become available. However, in spite of the limitations due to the non-availability of timely data, the study will be found useful by all interested in Pakistan's population problems.

M. L. Qureshi Director Pakistan Institute of Development Economics Islamabad

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

In preparing this monograph a number of research studies by various scholar have been referred to. In particular, mention is made of the Ph.D. dissertations by M. R. Khan and G. M. Farooq; and research papers by M. L. Qureshi, M. K. H. Khan, Sultan S. Hashmi and A. D. Bhatti which have been frequently quoted for the preparation of the monograph. To all these the author owes special thanks. The author also wishes to convey his gratitude for the valuable comments received from Jawaid Azfar, Mujtiba Mirza and Robert Gardner. He is particularly thankful to J. Gilbert Hardee for his valuable suggestions to improve the original draft and also appreciate the comments and suggestions by Iqbal Alam, Mehtab S. Karim and Anwar Ghaudry.

The author wishes to express his deep gratitude to M. L. Qureshi, Director, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, who has been a continuous source of inspiration and guidance at all stages of the study. He is also highly grateful to S. H. H. Naqavi for his editorial help.

Mohammad Afzal August 8, 1974. Senior Research Demographer Pakistan Institute of Development Economics Islamabad

CONTENTS

Page Foreword ...... i Acknowledgement ...... ii List of Tables ...... vi List of Figures .. .. • • • • . • .. ix

CHAPTER I. POPULATION GROWTH ...... 1

(a) Historical . . . . • • • • • . 1 (b) Current ., .. •• •• .. 2 Levels of Growth Suggested by Census Totals .. .. 4 Growth Rates from the PGE and the PGS .. .. 5

II. COMPONENTS OF GROWTH ...... 9

(a) Fertility ...... • • •. • • 9 Age at Marriage ...... 12 Differential Fertility ...... 15

(b) Mortality .. .•-.-.-• • •• 17 Age Specific Mortality Rates .. .. • . . 19 Infant Mortality Rates ...... 20 Mortality Past Infancy .. .. 20 Life Expectancy and Risks of Death . . .. 21

(c) International Migration ...... 23 Migration between Pakistan and India ...... 26 Migration between Pakistan and.Bangladesh' .. .. 28 External Migration to Countries outside the Subcontinent 29 III. POPULATION COMPOSITION ...... 30 (a) Age and Sex ...... 30 Sex Ratio ...... 30 Age Distribution •.•.'" ...... 32 Overall Age-Sex Patterns, 1901 through 1961 .. .. 36 Pre-School Age Population ...... 39 School Age Population ...... • 40 Women of Child Bearing Age ...... 41 Population at Working Age .. . . 41 ; (b) Marital Status ...... 42 (c) Household and Family ...... 46 (d) Ethnicity, Race and Religion ...... 48 (e) Education ...... 50 Enrolment Status of School Age Population .. .. 50

IV. POPULATION DISTRIBUTION AND INTERNAL MIGRATION 53 Population Distribution ...... 53 (a) Regional ...... 53 Population Density .. .. 54 (b) Urban-Rural Migration ...... 55 Population Growth in Cities and Metropolitan Areas.. 57 Internal Migration ...... 57 Migration Estimates from Age Data ...... 59 Migration Estimates from Place-of-Birth Data .. .. 62 Life-time Inter-provincial Migration ...... 62 Inter-censal Inter-provincial Migration .. .. 62 Summary of Migration Estimates ...... 67 Rural-Urban Migration ...... 70

V. THE LABOUR FORCE .. .. : .. ..76 : (a) Composition of Labour Force ...... 77 (b) Agricultural and Non-Agricultural Labour Force .. .. 80

iv (c) Employment Status ...... 81 (d) Status Composition ...... 82 (e) Occupation and Industry ...... 83 (f ) Age-Sex Distribution of Labour Force .. .. 84 Age-Sex Specific Activity Rates ...... 85

VI. POPULATION PROJECTIONS ...... 88

VII. ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL IMPLICATIONS AND POLICY .. 92 (a) Economic and Social Implications of Population Growth .. 92 93 Gross National Product .. . ; • • Savings and Investment ...... 93 Availability of Wheat ...... 94 Availability of Cloth ...... 94 Housing ...... , 94 Primary Education ...... 94 Medical Facilities ...... • .. 94 Transportation ...... 95 (b) Population Policy as Element in Social and Economic Policy .. 95

APPENDICES

A. A BRIEF HISTORY OF CENSUS TAKING IN PAKISTAN 99 B. A BRIEF HISTORY OF VITAL REGISTRATION IN PAKISTAN ...... 102 LIST OF TABLES TABLE Page

1. Population Growth in Pakistan ...... /,..-.' 2 2. 1972. Projected Population and Census Population .. ... 6 3. Average Crude Birth and Death Rates in Pakistan from the PGE 1962-65 and from the PGS for 1968 and 1971 Average .. .. 7 4. Age Specific Fertility and Marital Fertility Rates Based on the PGE . , 1963-65 CS Average and the PGS, 1968 and 1971 Average .. 10 5. Average Age at Marriage for Males and Females in Karachi, Lahore and Sheikhupura Rural ...... 14 6. Average Age at Marriage of Males and Females by Socio-Economic Areas in Karachi ...... 15 7. Average Age Specific Mortality Rates (CD) for Pakistan from the PGE, 1962-65 and the PGS, 1968 and 1971 ...... 19 8. Age-Sex Specific Mortality Rates (CD) by Broad Age Groups for Pakistan: 1962-65 ...... 21 9. Abridged Life Table for Pakistan: 1962-65 ...... 22 10. Intercensal External Migration betwen Pakistan, its Provinces and India: 1901-11, 1911-21 and 1941-51 ...... 27 11. Intercensal Migration between Pakistan and Bangladesh: 1901- 1911, 1911-1921 and 1951-61 ...... 28 12. Sex Ratios in Census Populations of Pakistan and Provinces: 1901 through 1972 ...... 31 13. Age-Sex Distribution of the Population of Pakistan in 1951 and 1961 Censuses with Percentage Change over 1951-61 .. .. 34

VI 14. Percentage Distribution of 1951 and 1961 Censuses by Age and Sex with Change over 1951-61 ...... 35

15. Age-Sex Percentage Distribution of Pakistan from Census data: 1901 through 1951 ...... 37

16. Age Specific Sex Ratios (Males per thousand Females) in Pakistan from Census Data 1901 through 1961 _ .. 38

17. Percentage Distribution of Population by Board Age Groups: 1951-61 ...... 41 18. Percentage Distribution of the Male and Female Population, 10 years of Age and over, by Marital Status and Age Group for Pakistan: 1951 and 1961 ...... 43

19. Percentage Distribution of Households in Pakistan by Number of Persons: 1960 ...... „ 47

20. Percentage of Families by Type in Pakistan: 1960 .. .. 49

21. School Enrolments by Age and Stage/Level of Education in Pakistan: 1965 and 1970 ...... 51

22. Intercensal Population Growth in Pakistan and Provinces: 1951-61 and 1961-72 ...... 53 23. Population Density in Pakistan and Provinces: 1961 and 1972 .. 55

24. Urban-Rural Distribution and Intercensal Growth Population of Pakistan: 1901 through 1972 ...... 56 25. Population of Cities/Metropolitan Areas in Pakistan: 1961 and 1972 ...... _ 58 26. Intercensal Net Migration Estimates to Provinces and Districts of Pakistan, from within Pakistan and India, obtained from Age Data: 1901-11 through 1951-61 ...... 60

27. Life-time Inter-Provincial Migration in Pakistan: 1901, 1911, 1921 1951 and 1961. ._ ...... 63

VII 28. Intercensal Internal Migration Between Different Provinces of Pakistan: 1901-11, 1911-21 and 1951-61 (From Place-of-Birth Data) ...... 66

29. Intercensal Net Migrants to Pakistan from India from Age Data and Place-of-Birth Data from Census: 1901-11 through 1951-61 .. 68 30. Net Migration to Urban Areas in Pakistan, its Provinces and Districts during the Intercensal Periods: 1901-11 through 1951-61 .. 72 31. Net Migrants of Ages 10 and over to Urban Areas by Provinces in Pakistan: 1951-61 ...... 74

32. Net Migration of Males to Cities and Increase in Male Non- Agricultural Labour Force: 1951-61 ...... 75

33. Proportions of Population in Labour Force by Sex and Rural- Urban Areas in Pakistan: 1961 ...... 77

34. Population, Labour Force and Crude Labour Force Participation Rates by Sex in Pakistan: 1901-1961 ...... 78 35. Crude Labour Force Participation Rates and their Proportions in Agricultural and Non-Agricultural Activities in Pakistan: 1961 to 1971 ...... 81

36. Crude Labour Force Participation Rates by Employment Status in Pakistan: 1961 and 1971 ...... 82

37. Percent Distribution of Cultivators by Status and Sex in Pakistan: 1961 ...... 82

38. Distribution of Non-Agricultural Labour Force Status and Sex in Pakistan: 1961 ...... 83 39. Status Composition of Selected Industrial Groups of the Non- Agricultural Labour Force in Pakistan by Sex: 1961 .. .. 84

40. Age Distribution of Labour Force in Selected Industries by Sex in Pakistan: 1961 ...... 86

Vin 41. Age-Sex Specific Labour Force Participation Rates in Pakistan: 1961 ...... 87 42. Vital Rates of Projection Population ...... 88 43. Population Projections by Age and Sex Groups, Pakistan: July 1st,

1960 to July 1st, 1990...... 90

APPENDIX TABLES

I. Provisional Population of Pakistan and its Provinces by Districts : 1972 ...... 104 II. Net Nuptiality Tables for Females in Pakistan: 1962-65 .. ..107

LIST OF FIGURES

FIGURE 1. Average Age Specific Fertility and Marital Fertility Rates for Pakistan: 1963-65 (PGE) and 1968 and 1971 (PGS) .. .. 11

2. Probability of Dying (nqx) by Age and Sex in Pakistan: 1960-65 .. 24 3. Projected Age-Sex Structure of Pakistan Population: 1972 .- 89

I. POPULATION GROWTH (a) Historical Established in 1947, Pakistan has now completed twenty-seven years as an independent country. With the separation of its former eastern wing, known as East Pakistan, in 1971, the present Pakistan consists wholly of what was formerly known as West Pakistan and it is the population of this new Pakistan which is studied here. Hereinafter the name Pakistan would refer to that area only which is contained within the post-1971 boundaries of the country.

Since Independence, three population censuses have been conducted in this country. The first census was taken in 1951, the second in 1961 and the third in 1972. For the pre-1947 period, the population totals and their distribution are available from the series of censuses. conducted in the subcontinent. The historical growth of population since 1901 in the area now constituting Pakistan is presented in Table 1 which shows population totals at each census, intercensal growth and growth rates between 1901 and 1972.

The population of Pakistan has been showing continuously increasing intercensal rate of growth, particularly since 1921. The lower increase during the decade 1911-21 reflects the impact of decimation of population due to influenza epidemic of 1918. The next decade 1921-31 shows a slightly higher increase of 11.5 percent with annual rate of increase having gone up to 1.1 percent. This increase is attributed partly to in-migration from other parts of the subcontinent due to extension of irrigation system and large-scale colonization. Between 1931 and 1941, the population increased by 20.1 percent which was considerably higher than during the previous decades. The chief reasons for this increase were the elimination of famines and considerable control over epidemics which lowered the death rate and increased life expectancy [44]. The 1941-51 decade again showed a fairly high increase of 19.4 percent mainly as a result of natural increase but also partly due to excess of immigration from India over emigration following the partition

1 Table 1 Population Growth in Pakistan: 1901-1972

Intercensal Growth Census Year Population (in thousand) Annual Rate of Percent Growth Growth (Percent)1 1901 16,576b 1911 19,382 16.9(7.1)c 1.6 (0.7)c 1921 21,109 8.9 0.8 1931 23,542 11.5 1.1 1941 28,282 20.1 1.9 1951 33,740 19.4 1.8 1961 42,880 27.0 2.4 1972d 64,890= 51.2 3.6 Source: [32,34] a. Geometric rate b. Excluding population of Frontier Regions c. Excluding 1,622,000 persons of Frontier Regions in 1911 d. 1961-72 intercensal period was 11.7 Years e. Includes non-Pakistanis of the subcontinent. The exceptional increase of 27.0 percent in the 1951-61 decade is attributed mainly to the excess of births over deaths resulting from a sharp fall in the death rate due to improved environmental conditions and health facilities. The intercensal increase between 1961 and 1972 appears to be much higher as compared to that in the previous decade. The average annual rate of growth on the basis of census populations of 1961 and 1972 amounts to 3.6 percent. This growth, however, may be a resultant of an estimated undercount of about seven percent in the 1961 Census and a continuous high rate of natural increase. If the population of 1961 is adjusted for the estimated underenumeration, the average rate growth during the intercensal period comes down to the level of 2.9 percent. This, however, assumes no underenumeration in the 1972 Census.1

(b) Carrent In 1901 the population of Pakistan was 16.6 million which, according 1. The 1972 population census totals are provisional and are subject to revision. to the 1972 Census, has swollen to 64.9 million in a period of just over seventy years, showing almost fourfold increase. The intercensal growth during 1961-72 has been 51.2 percent which is the highest since 1901. The latest intercensai period, however, covered a longer time span. The corresponding growth during 1951-61 was 27 percent.

Prior to the 1961 Census, the annual rate of growth was generally considered to be less than two percent. But the 1961 Census results yielded an average annual rate of 2.4 percent during 1951-61. An analysis of the age-sex distribution data of the 1961 Census indicated substantial underenumeration to the extent of six to eight percent [10,13, 39]. When the 1961 Census data were adjusted for underenumeration, the growth rate was estimated to be higher than 2.4 percent. Such a high estimate of growth rate was extremely upsetting to the planners who, only a few years earlier, had been basing their plans on a rate of less than two percent. While the rates suggested by demographers were alarming, the uncertainty about these rates became a major concern of all those who were involved in the planning process either directly or indirectly.

It was considered imperative, therefore, to develop a system of vital data collection which could yield reliable estimates of population growth rates in Pakistan. As a result, the well known Population Growth Estimation (PGE) project was undertaken to estimate the vital rates in Pakistan, on the basis of the data collected from selected sample areas. This study, undertaken from 1962 through 1965, employed a dual system of data collection, viz., Longitudinal or continuous Registration (LR) and Cross Sectional or periodic survey (CS), from the PGE sample areas. Vital rates were then computed (i) from the LR data, (ii) from the CS data, and (iii) through an application of the Chandra-Deming (CD) Formula to the LR and CS data employing an inflation factor for the events missed by both the systems.

The results of this study confirmed the inference, drawn earlier from an analysis of census data, that the population growth rate was higher than was estimated from the census totals of 1951 and 1961.

The PGE experiment was terminated after 1965 and another experiment, called the PGS (Population Growth Survey), was launched in 1968 to estimate vital rates through a single system approach of periodic surveys. This experiment was carried out from 1968 through 1971 but the data for 1968 and 1971 only have yet been analysed. Methodologically the PGS is a parallel approach to the survey part (GS) of the PGE . Experience has shown that data on vital events collected by the survey method tend to produce lower rates than those collected by the carefully administered registration of events, primarily due to the factor of recall.

In the following two sections we shall discuss current levels of rate of growth as implied by (i) the census results within the framework of assumptions involved in various earlier population projections most of which came close to the 1972 Census count, and (ii) the PGE and the PGS estimates of birth and death rates.

Levels of Growth Suggested by Census Totals While the population total and the apparent rate of growth during the 1961- L972 period, as revealed by the first bulletin released on the 1972 Census, surprised many, actually some of the projections prepared in Pakistan and abroad during the intercensal period 1961-72 had almost correctly anticipated them [10,13,42]. These projections were prepared by adjusting the 1961 Census totals for the underenumeration estimates based on detailed studies of the age-sex distribution of the census population. Krotki [31] estimated an underenumeration to the extent of 8.4 percent in 1961. The Planning Commission of Pakistan's estimate of underenumeration was seven percent [39] and that by Bean et al. was 6.2 percent [10]. Brackett and Akers of the U.S. Bureau of Census estimated that the underenumeration was by 7.5 percent [13]. Table 2 provides comparative estimates of 1972 population as indicated by three population projections made respectively by the U.S. Bureau of Census, Bean et al. [10] and the Technical Sub-Committee for Planning Division [42] under different assumptions of fertility and mortality.

The estimate for 1972 population prepared by the Technical Sub-Com- mittee for Planning Division are closest to the enumerated 1972 Census population, and falls short of the census count by only 146,000. In order to see how the estimated total under this set of projections was arrived at, we have examined the assumptions under which these projections were prepared. Under these assumptions, the 1961 Census population as adjusted for seven percent underenumeration by the Planning Commission in their projections of 1964 was taken as a base and then brought back to mid-1960 by the reverse surviving method [42]. For the selection of appropriate levels of fertility and mortality for • the base year, the Technical Sub-Committee examined the various available sets of fertility and mortality rates and concluded that a crude birth rate of 48 and a crude death rate of 19 were the closest estimates for the period 1960-65.* Under the projections by the Technical Sub-Committee, a target crude birth rate of 37 and death rate of 12 were assumed for the year 1985. The 1970-75 crude birth and death rates under these assumptions were estimated at 44 and 15 per thousand respectively, with the rate of growth remaining unchanged at the level of 2.9 percent. (For year-wise details, see Table 42). These rates seem to be fairly plausible under the existing conditions.

Growth Rates from the PGE and the PGS The pioneer sample population estimation project, called the PGE, provided estimates of fertility and mortality rates for Pakistan from 1962 through 1965. The three sets of average crude birth and death rates as generated by the two systems of data collection used, namely Longitudinal Registration (LR) and Cross- Sectional Survey (CS), along with the estimated rates computed through the Chandra-Deming formula (CD) are given in Table 3. The table shows the average of the rates generated by the PGE for the years 1962 through 1965 and by the single system approach (survey) through the PGS (Population Growth Survey) for the years 1968 and 1971. It will be recalled that the PGE as well as the PGS rates are based on sample estimates and are, therefore, subject to sampling errors as well as to usual errors of reporting and coverage.

A comparison of the average rates provided by each type of estimate shows that the rates given by the CS system are the lowest while those given by the CD estimate are the highest. The primary reason for the survey rates being, in general, lower than the LR rates is the factor of recall lapse in a survey system which collects

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Crude Birth Rate Crude Death Rate Type of Estimate PGE PGS PGE PGS (1962-65) (1968 & 71) (1962-65) (1968 & 71)

LR 42 — 15 CS 38 37 11 11 CD 52 . — 18

Source: [19 and 41]

data on vital events retrospectively. The problem of recall is eliminated under the LR system in which events are recorded as they take place, by especially appointed registrars. The estimates provided by the Chandra-Deming formula are higher because they are based on the sum of the matched events obtained through the two systems, unmatched events from each system, and an inflation factor to cover events missed by registration as well as the survey. The Chandra-Deming estimates do tend to over-inflate the rates if the basic condition of independence of the two systems of data collection is not met with or if the proportion of non-matched events is unduly high. Another factor which affected the magnitude of the Chandra-Deming estimates in the PGE experiment of Pakistan is that the estimated population (denominator) for each set of rates remained the same, being drawn from the survey (CS) data. Thus, while events of birth and death were inflated by the Chandra-Deming formula, no adjustment was made in the denominator, i.e., the estimated population.

Since the PGS approach is methodologically parallel to the CS part of the PGE, inferences as to changes in vital rates might reasonably be drawn by comparing the PGS (1968 and 1971 average) rates with the CS rates (1962-65 average) of the PGE. However, in view of the enlarged sample of the PGS and matching of the events collected through overlapping periods, the PGS might have provided somewhat better estimates than the GS part of the PGE. Both the PGS and the GS part of the PGE were carried out by the Central Statistical Office, now called Statistical Division.

It is observed from Table 3 that the CS average crude birth rate for 1962-65 was 38 per thousand while the corresponding PGS average rate for 1968 and 1971 was 37 per thousand. The CS crude death rate for 1962-65 and the PGS (1968-1971) rate are identical, i.e., 11 per thousand. The comparison indicates practically no change in birth or death rates. However, as already stated in the previous section, the census populations of 1961 (adjusted) and 1972, when examined in the light of the projections prepared by the Technical Sub-Committee for Planning Division [42], indicate that the crude birth rate has declined from 48 in 1960-65 to 44 per thousand in 1970-75, whereas the death rate went down from 19 to 15 per thousand during the same period. The comparison of crude birth and death rates given by the PGE and the PGS and the rates implied by the population projections referred to above are better understood by keeping in view the fact that (i) the 1968 and 1971 PGS average estimates represent two years' observations with a gap of two years in between while the PGE gives four years' average; and (ii) there were the sampling and non-sampling variations between estimates derived from the PGE and the PGS. All this evidence, taken together, suggests that the relatively smaller magnitude of decline in birth and death rates implied by the census totals is not discernible from the PGE-PGS rates, probably because of relatively better coverage in the 1968 and 1971 PGS. Thus the rates suggested by the Censuses of 1961 and 1972 in the light of the assumptions of the population projection by the Technical Sub-Committee for Planning Division are relatively more plausible. II. COMPONENTS OF GROWTH

(a) Fertility As a measure of fertility patterns the crude birth rate has limited utility as it is highly affected by the age-sex composition of population. On the other hand, age specific fertility rates which incorporate the age-to-age variation in the child bearing of females are a much better and more refined means of measuring fertility patterns. Total Fertility Rate (TFR) provides a single refined measure of births per woman based on current age-specific fertility, and the Gross Reproduction Rate (GRR) gives a measure of average number of females who would be born to a woman at current level of fertility. The Total Marital Fertility Rate (TMFR) and Gross Marital Reproduction Rate (GMRR) provide even more refined measure of fertility by taking into account married females only.

Table 4 provides the average CS age specific fertility and marital fertility rates for 1963-65 from the PGE along with the corresponding 1968 and 1971 average rates from the PGS. The table shows that the distribution pattern of the PGE fertility rates from age to age is similar to that of the PGS rates, with fertility reaching its peak in the age group 25-29 followed closely by age groups 30-34 and 20-24. The marital fertility rates, however, have a slightly different pattern wherein fertility reaches its peak in the age group 20-24 in the case of the 1963-65 PGE rates but in the age group 25-29 in the case of the PGS rates (1968 and 1971). The comparison of age specific fertility rates and marital age specific fertility rates is depicted in Fig. I,

It is observed from Table 4 and Fig. I that the PGS age specific fertility rates are lower than the PGE rates up to the age group 30-34 whereas for the higher age groups they are higher than the latter. The total fertility rate and gross reproduction rate, however, are at about the same level. In the case of marital fertility rates, the PGS rates are lower than the PGE rates up to the age group 20-24 only where- Table 4 Age Specific Fertility and Marital Fertility Rates Based on the "PGE 1963-65 GS Average and the PGS 1968 and 1971 Average

Age Fertility Rates Marital Fertility Rates Group PGE PGS PGE PGS 1963-65 (GS) 1968 & 1971 1963-65 (CS) 1968 & 1971

15-19 0.075 0.058 0.250 0.187 20-24 0.242 0.223 0.295 0.275 25-29 0.268 0.261 0.282 0.284 30-34 0.254 0.252 0.264 0.265 35-39 0.188 0.200 0.200 0.213 40-44 0.100 0.124 0.114 0.138 45-49 0.073 0.085 0.089 0.105

Total Fertility Rate Total Marital Fertility Rate 6.00 6.00 7.47 7.34

Gross Reproduction Rate Marital Gross Reproduction Rate. 2.91 2.93 3.64 3.58 after they are higher. Total marital fertility rate and gross marital reproduction rate show slight decrease over the two periods.

Since both the PGE and the PGS rates are subject to sampling and non-sampling variability which would be of different order under each of these two approaches, particularly because of relatively larger sample size in the PGS, any decline in fertility levels might not be obvious from a simple comparison of the rates. It may be mentioned here that the National Impact Survey which was conducted in 1968 to measure the effect of the Population Planning Programme in Pakistan shows decline in marital fertility from 1960 to 1967 [46]. As already stated, the population projections prepared by the Technical Sub-Committee for the Planning Division imply declining crude birth rate which is attributed to the age distribution effect mainly up to 1970 and partly to a decb'ne in fertility in later years.

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11 Since it was realized that the actual level of fertility rates was possibly higher than that given by the GS or the LR but less than that given by the CD, the total fertility rate, which was assumed to be 7.0 in 1963-65, would be around 6.3 in 1972 under the assumption of the population projections referred to above. This indicates that a woman following the patterns of fertility as of 1972 would, on an average, give birth to 6.3 children during her reproductive period. Out of these, three would be females whose number would be further reduced due to death of some of the children. If the risk of mortality from birth till the end of child-bearing period is adequately allowed for, the existing fertility and mortality patterns would seem to imply that for every female there would be nearly two females (NRR) in the next generation to replace her. Hopefully, with the success of family planning programme the replacement ratio (net reproduction rate) will also decline substantially.

Age at Marriage In the study of population dynamics of a country marital status is considered an important factor as it affects fertility to a great extent and has some bearing on mortality and migration. The patterns of age at marriage are of special significance in a Muslim country like Pakistan where marriage is the only socially acceptable means of gratifying the mating instinct and where, as a result, illegiti- mate fertility is negligible.

In view of the demographic significance of age at marriage, a number of studies have been carried out by several demographers on age at marriage in Pakis- tan and its various regions. One of the earliest studies was made by Sadiq [45] based on the method developed by Hajnal [20]. This method provides estimates of average age at marriage from the proportion of singles in the age-sex distribution of population. Through this method Sadiq estimated from the 1961 Census age-sex distribution that the average ages at marriage for males and females in Pakistan weie 23.5 years and 17.6 years respectively. For urban areas his estimates were 24.1 years for males and 18.3 years for females while for rural areas the corresponding estimates were 23.4 years and 17.4 years respec-

12 tively. In another study, following the same procedure, Alam [9] estimated from the PGE age-sex distribution that the average age at marriage in 1964 for males and females in Pakistan was 24.7 years and 19.1 years respectively. Another study by Afzal and Iftikhar [6], in which Net Nuptiality Tables for males and females in Pakistan were constructed on the basis of the PGE mortality rates for 1962-65 and the proportions of singles from the 1965 PGE population distribution by age and sex, suggests that average age at marriage is 19.3 years for females and 25.2 years for males. Though the sources of data in the above three studies were different, the first using the 1961 Census data and the latter two using the PGE data, there is some indication of a rise in age at marriage of both males and females. Whether the increases so indicated are significant depends on the comparability and relative reliability of the data used in these studies.

The highly defective vital registration system in Pakistan, while covering the events of births and deaths, has not been covering marriages so that until 1961 no systematic record of marriages had been maintained. The Muslim Family Law Ordinanace of 1961 made registration of Muslim marriages compulsory in Pakistan. Under the existing system, such particulars of the bride and the groom as (i) names (ii) respective ages at the time of marriage, (iii) residential addresses before marriage and (iv) the conditions of marriage contract, are simulta- neously recorded on a prescribed marriage contract form called Nikahnama. One copy each is kept by the bride's and groom's families and a third copy is deposited with the local Union Council's or Committee's office. These forms are thus a source of important data of demographic and social significance. Marriage data, however, are widely scattered in numerous localities and no attempt has yet been made to compile them on the national level. A number of studies have, however, been made by some individual researchers to utilize this information to estimates age-at-marriage patterns of males and females and their relationships with some social and economic variables. These studies were carried out for the two largest cities of Pakistan, namely, Karachi and Lahore, and for a group of villages in the Sheikhupura district of the Punjab. The estimates of age at marriage for Karachi [3], Lahore walled city [39] and Sheikhupura rural areas [2] are given in Table 5. The Karachi study represented overall population as

13 well as its distribution by High, Middle and Low socio-economic strata while the Lahore study represented a population of varying socio-economic conditions but relatively more bound by traditional norms and values than that of Karachi. The rural study, however, represented practically a single homogeneous low socio- economic stratum. Except for the Lahore study which represented marriages reported in 1969, the studies of Karachi and Sheikhupura rural areas were made for two years each. The Karachi study was for 1962 and 1965 while the Sheikhupura rural study covered the years 1964 and 1969.

Table 5 shows that the average age at marriage of females is not particularly different in Karachi, Lahore and rural Sheikhupura, being about 19 in all those areas.

Table 5

Average Age at Marriage for Males and Females in Karachi, Lahore and Sheikhupura Rural

Karachi Lahore City Sheikhupura Rural Sex 1962 j 1965 1969 1964 | 1969

Male 24.6 25.4 24.4 22.4 22.6 Female 18.7 19.0 19.2 19.1 18.8 Difference 5.9 6.4 5.2 3.1 3.8 Source: [2, 3, and 30]

The average age at marriage formales, however, does vary between urban and rural areas, being 25 years in Karachi and Lahore but only 22.5 years in rural Sheikhupura. A comparison over the years indicates no changes in rural Sheikhu- pura but some increase in urban Karachi for males. Table 6, which provides average age at marriage for males and females by social class in Karachi, shows that there is little difference between average age at marriage of low and middle class areas for either sex. There was, however, a slight increase for both sexes over the three year period, particularly in low areas. The corresponding average for both sexes in the higher class areas was higher than in middle and low class areas, but practically no change over the time is observed.

14 Table 6

Average Age at Marriage of Males and Females by Socio-Economie Areas of Karachi

Males Females Socio-Economic Area 1962 | 1965 1962 | 1965 High 26.0 26.2 19.6 20.1 Middle 24.3 24.9 18.6 . 18.9 Low- 24.4 25.4 18.4 18.8

All areas 24.6 25.4 18.7 19.0

Source: [3]

From the above mentioned studies it is evident that the average age at marriage for females is about 19. Considering 49 as the terminal age of reproductive period for females it would appear that a female in Pakistan would have 30 potential years for producing children. However, not all the females who get married complete their reproductive periods since some of these females may die, while some others may become widowed, divorced, etc. Thus, the net average years of reproduction after marriage would be less than 30. Using the results from the Net Nuptiality Tables for females in Pakistan, referred to earlier (Appendix Table II) and the complete life tables for females prepared by Yusuf and Farooqui [47], the estimate of expected average years after marriage within the reproductive span comes to 18.5. This means that a female in Pakistan getting married at an average age of 19 would achieve total fertility of seven in the estimated net reproductive life of 18.5 years. Any increase in the age at marriage may reduce the average years of reproductive priod after marriage, thereby reducing the overall fertility. Such a reduction would, however, only be achieved if either there is no change in fertility schedule or if those getting married late are motivated to have fewer children.

Differential Fertility There is less than adequate evidence from which to draw firm conclusions on differential fertility in Pakistan. Reference is being made here to selected findings on differential fertility derived from census data and a number of surveys. Some-

15 what more attention has been given to rural-urban comparison of fertility than to other variables, though such studies as have been reported permit only limited conclusions as to differences in levels and particularly to trends over the time.

Reporting on rural-urban fertility differentials for the population of Pakistan and India prior to 1950, Davis found a negative association between urbanization and fertility. His general conclusion is that "the cities manifest a lower fertility than the country" [15, p. 70]. Duza [16], using child-woman ratio as an indicator of fertility from the 1961 Census data, concludes that there is an inverse relationship between urbanization and the child-woman ratio but that there is no apparent relationship between urbanization and marital fertility in Pakistan.* Duza's study thus gave some support to Davis's earlier finding that there exists an inverse relationship between urbanization and fertility.

Data from the National Impact Survey of 1968-69 and the Population Growth Survey (PGS) for the years 1968 and 1971 show a higher crude birth rate for rural areas than for urban areas, which agrees with the findingso f Davis and Duza.* Duza [16] further reports a strong negative correlation between child-woman ratio and percent of females in labour force, and no relationship between the former and literacy. Quoting several other studies he arrives at the conclusion that wherever fertility differentials existed they showed only moderate association with income, occupation or other socio-economic variables.

Hashmi's study of demographic characteristics of the people of Karachi [23], conducted in 1958-59, shows a very mild inverse relationship between income and fertility. The study further reports a substantially higher crude birth rate for nuclear families than for either extended or joint families. Karim [24] reports

3. Child-Woman ratio is defined as the number of children under 5 years of age per 1,000 women in child-bearing ages; whereas the child-married woman ratio is limited to married women of the same age category. 4. It may be mentioned here that the PGE data did not permit analysis of rural- urban differentials. The data from Housing, Economic and Demographic (HED) Survey carried out just after the 1972 Census would, however, provide detailed data for analysis of differential fertility.

16 no significant difference in age standardized cumulative fertility of currently married women by family type and rural-urban residence.

(b) Mortality The rapid rate at which the population of Pakistan has been growing, particularly since the turn of the century, was primarily the result of marked decline in the death rate coupled with a consistently high level of birth rate. In determining the present size of population, the variation in mortality levels has, therefore, played a significant role. This phenomenon, however, has not been peculiar to Pakistan alone as similar relatively faster declines in mortality than in fertility have occurred even in the developed countries as an intial stage of demographic transition. With- in the subcontinent, comprising Pakistan, India, and Bangladesh, the drop in mortality has been almost simultaneous as the conditions bringing about such a change were common and similar.

While the PGE data have been the main source for a number of systematic studies on mortality patterns as existing in 1962-65, assessments of the levels and trends in mortality before the sixties have been made either indirectly from analysis of census data or have been constructed out of such fragmentary information as has been available. Based on evidence available from a number of studies and documents, Robinson [44] has drawn an overall conclusion that in Pakistan mortality has been declining steadily since 1900, with an accelerated trend in the decade of the fifties. Khan [27] draws similar conclusions on the basis of vital registration data from the Punjab. Indirect estimates such as those described above suggest that the crude death rate was around 40 per thousand in the early part of this century but declined to the level of about 30 by 1950.

After 1950, mortality declined at an even faster pace, with a decline in crude death rate from about 30 to 19 by 1960. The average rate for the years 1962-65 is provided by the PGE. The set of crude death rates available from the PGS for 1968 and 1971 does not indicate any change from the PGE 1962-65 CS level. However, as already mentioned in the case of fertility rates, differences in both sampling and non-samping errors between the PGE and

17 the PGS might have eclipsed the relatively smaller magnitude of decline in death rate suggested by the 1961-1972 Census totals under the assumptions of the population projection by the Technical Sub-Committee. The National Impact Survey (1968-69) also suggested a declining trend in infant mortality rate between 1961 and 1967 [46]. In view of the above, the decline of crude death rate from 1960-65 level of 19 to an estimated level of 15 per thousand in 1970-75 as implied by the projections referred to above, seems fairly plausible.

The available scattered evidence on mortality rates since the turn of the century suggests that the decline in death rate was relatively slower until around 1950 after which the drop was as high as 50 percent by 1960. During the decade of the sixties, the rate of decline seems to have slowed down.

In explaining the relative importance of causes which have brought about decline in the death rate, Robinson [44] divides the history of mortality reduction in Pakistan into four stages. The first stage, consisting of several initial decades of this century, saw elimination of famines and epidemics which in itself would have lowered the death rate and increased life expectancy. During the second stage such traditio- nally fatal diseases as plague, small pox and cholera were brought under control. By 1940, plague was eliminated altogether and mortality by small pox and cholera was reduced substantially due to organized public health efforts and successful vacci- nation programmes. The third stage, beginning with the advent of the 1950's was characterised by mortality reductions in absolute terms from all causes except infant mortality, maternal mortality and tuberculosis but with sharper declines due to typhoid and malaria. The causes of this decline were medical as well as environmental, since mortality by all diseases was reduced due to the combined impact of public health programmes and large scale use of antibiotics and other modern medicine along with the rising level of real income.

Stage four, which Robinson presumed to have already begun, would see the final elimination of malaria, tuberculosis, cholera, typhoid, etc., through continued epidemiological attacks on all these diseases, improvement in sanitation and water supply, rising level of nutrition and real income, and reduction in levels of fertility.

18 Age Specific Mortality Rates Table 7 provides average age specific mortality rates for Pakistan based on the PGE estimates of the CS for 1962-65 and average PGS estimates for 1968 and 1971. Except for age under 1 year, practically no change in mortality is discernible between 1962-65 and 1968-1972 average rates for all the remaining age groups. It should be mentioned, however, that for age under 1 year we have substituted infant mortality rate in place of death-under-one-year rate to minimize the effect of under-reporting of infants. While there is no evidence to the effect that infant mortality might have increased during the periods 1962-65 and 1968-71, it seems likely that the observed increase in infant mortality was due to differences in age

Table 7

Average Age specific Mortality Rates for Pakistan from the PGE, 1962-65 and the PGS, 1968 and 1971

PGS Age Specific PGE Age Specific Mortality Mortality Rates Age Rates 1962-65 (Average) 1968 & 1971 (Average)

CS CD GS

Under 1* 105 135 115 1—4 18 28 17 5—9 3 5 3 10—14 2 3 2 15—19 2 5 2 20—24 3 4 3 25—29 3 5 3 30—34 4 6 3 35—39 4 7 3 40—44 4 7 4 45—49 5 8 5 50—54 8 11 10 55—59 10 16 8 60 & above 31 52 32 Source: [19 & 41] •Infant Mortality Rates.

19 reporting of persons under one year in the PGE and the PGS. Some indication in support of this argument is given by the relatively lower rate for the age group 1-4 years in 1968-1971.

Infant Mortality Mortality during the first year of life is of particular importance as it is an important indicator of the overall health level of a country. In countries where overall mortality is high, infant deaths constitute à significant proportion of total deaths. A decline in infant mortality usually results in a substantial drop in the general mortality level. As stated earlier, the crude death rate in Pakistan dropped from, the estimated level of about 40 per thousand at the beginning of this century to the level of about 19 by 1960. The available evidence shows that the infant mortality rate of the Punjab went down, from the 1901-1910 level of 222 to that of 168 by 1931-1940 [15,44]. The PGE Chandra-Deming.Estimate for 1962- 65 gives an infant mortality rate of 135 for Pakistan. The actual rate may be somewhat lower than this rate for according to the National Impact Survey the estimated infant mortality rate dropped from 131 in 1961 to 121 by 1967 [46]. Despite the marked progress made in the improvement of health conditions and a substantial reduction in crude death rate during the 1950's, infant mortality does not seem, to have declined substantially during the 1960's.

Compared to the estimated infant mortality rate of the order of 121 in Pakistan from the National Impact Survey for 1967, the corresponding rate in many of the developed countries is less than 20 which shows that Pakistan has yet to go a long way before it achieves a comparable level of infant mortality rate.5

Mortality Past Infancy Table 8 shows age-specific mortality rates by sex for broad age-groups in Pakistan as provided by the CD estimates of the PGE for 1962-65. It will be seen that for the 1-4 year age group, the death rate for both the sexes taken together is 31 per 1,000. The corresponding rate for males alone is 25 while for females it is 38 per thousand, indicating that after the first year of life, mortality among females 5. Population Reference Bureau Inc. 1973 World Population Data Sheet. Washington, D.C., 1973.

20 is higher than among males. Similar differentials, though to a lesser degree, arc found for age groups 5-14 and 15-44. But in the 45-and-over age group, they dis- appear almost altogether.

Sex differentials in mortality as evident from the age specific rates are also observable in crude death rates (as given by the PGE) which are 17 per thousand for males and 20 per thousand for females.

Table 8 Age-Sex Specific Mortality Rates (CD) by Broad Age Groups for Pakistan: 1962-65

Age Specific Mortality Rates Age Group Male | Female | Both Sexes Under 1 year* 137 135 135 1— 4 25 38 31 5—14 3 4 4 15—44 5 6 5 45 & above 28 27 28 All ages 17 27 28

Source: [19] *Infant Mortality Rates

Life Expectancy and Risks of Death

Following the PGE Experiment, a number of life tables, mostly abridged, have been prepared by different individuals using age specific mortality rates for different years of the experiment [10, 13, 42]. The patterns of life expectancy provided by these life tables under each type of estimate being not very dissimilar, discussion here will be confined to the abridged life tables prepared by the Technical Sub- Committee for the Planning Division [42].

Table 9, giving these life tables for males and females, shows that in 1962-65 the average expected life at birth was about 48 years for males and nearly 45 years for females, reflecting differentials already observed from the crude and age specific

21 Table 9 Abridged Life Table for Pakistan: 1962-65

1> T,

Males

0 . 13808 13,808 100,000 90,334 4,779,233 47.49 1 — 4 .08862 7,638 86,192 328,728 4,688,899 54.40 5 — 9 .01809 1,421 78,554 389,218 4,360,171 55.51 10—14 .01198 924 77,133 383,355 3,970,953 51.48 15—19 .01411 1,075 76,209 378,358 3,587,598 47.07 20—24 .01627 1,222 75,134 372,615 3,209,240 42.71 25—29 .01839 1,359 39,12 366,163 2,836,625 38.38 30—34 .02182 1,583 72,553 358,808 2,470,462 34.05 35—39 .02657 1,885 70,970 350,138 2,111,654 29.75 40-^4 .03415 2,359 69,085 339,528 1,761,516 25.50 45—49 .04321 2,882 66,726 326,425 1,421,988 21.31 50—54 .05851 3,736 63,844 309.880 1,095,563 20.35 55—59 .07846 4,716 60,108 288,750 785,683 13.07 60—64 .10089 5,588 55,392 262,990 496,933 8.97 65+ 1.00000 49,804 49,804 233,943 233,943 4.70

Females 0 .14026 14,026 100,000 90,182 4,506,299 45.06 1 — 4 .12492 10,740 85,974 321,353 4,416,117 51.37 5 — 9 .02080 1,565 75,234 372,258 4,094,775 54.43 10—14 .01331 981 73,669 365,893 3,722,518 50.53 15—19 .02021 1,469 72,688 359,768 3,356,625 46.18 20—24 .02359 11,680 71,219 351,895 2,996,858 42.08 25—29 .02544 1,769 69,539 343 273 2.644,963 38.03 30—34 .03056 2071 67,770 333,598 2,301,690 33.96 35—39 .03420 2,247 65,669 322,803 1,968,093 29.97 40—44 .03531 2,240 63:452 311,660 1,645,290 25.93 45-49 .03956 2,422 61,212 300.005 1,333.630 21.79 50—54 .04647 2.732 58,790 287,120 1,033,625 17.58 55—59 .05524 3.097 56,058 272,548 746,505 13.32 60—64 .10147 5,374 52,961 251,370 473,958 8.95 65+ 1.00000 47,587 47,587 222,588 222,588 4.68 Source: [42]

22 mortality rates. In the absence of any life table for Pakistan for the period before the sixties, the estimate of life expectancy for the Punjab as given by the life table prepared by Khan [26] from adjusted registered data on deaths during 1950-1952, may well be considered applicable to Pakistan as a whole. According to this life table, the expectation of life at birth was about 33 in 1950-52. This estimate, when compared with the estimate of about 48 years for 1962-65, shows an increase of 15 years in life expectancy within a period of 11-12 years.

The table for 1962-65 shows that life expectancy after the first year of life increases from about 48 to 54 years for males and from 45 to 51 years for females. Female life expectancy, which remains less than the corresponding male life expectancy up to the age of 34 years, overtakes the latter at the age of 35 years and continues to be greater practically throughout the remaining Ufe span.

Another way of studying mortality differentials between males and females is through an examination of age-wise probability of their death (nqx) from their respective life tables. These probabilities represent the risk of death from a particular age x. The „qx values show that females in Pakistan face a greater risk of death up to the age of 44 years. Beyond that age, death probability of females becomes lower than that of males. The age-wise distribution of nqr values for males and females in Pakistan is shown in Fig II.

(c) International Migration While natural increase in a country's population is solely determined by relative magnitudes of births and deaths, net population growth is affected by an additional factor of international migration which, in certain cases and at times, can be highly significant.

While it is true that since the turn of the century the role of international migration in the overall growth of Pakistan's population has been overshadowed by that of natural increase, international migration, per se, has been far from inconsider- able in the South Asian subcontinent and has affected Pakistan's population growth and structure considerably. For purposes of studying international migration as a factor in Pakistan's population growth, migratory movements in such areas of un-

23 1000 "'•

MALÍ reuní

1 \1 \ j 110-

I /

/ »0- / 1 1 // I I / / I 1 / / 1 I / / 70- / / / / 1 1 J SO • \ / . i \I\j J 0-

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24 divided British India as now lie in Pakistan, India and Bangladesh will be considered as international migration.

Apart from, the movements of population among these three countries, there has been international migration between Pakistan and some of the countries of Europe, Africa, South East Asia and Middle East. Such migrations are, however, limited now because of the imposition of severe restrictions by the majority of those countries. Limited migratory movements of skilled and unskilled workers have, however, been going on from Pakistan to the U.K. as well as to some countries of the Middle East according to the demands of the recipient countries.

The major sources of data for estimating international migration between Pakistan, India and Bangladesh are population censuses from which numbers of migrants could be worked out either from the place-of-birth data or from the age data, using census survival ratio method in the latter case. For estimating migration to other countries no reliable statistics are available in Pakistan although some estimates of the number of the Pakistani migrants to the U.K. are available in the recipient country. In this study we will be concerned with migratory movements between Pakistan, India and Bangladesh concerning which a comprehensive study has recently been made by Khan based on a detailed analysis of census data [29].

International migrations within the subcontinent involving Pakistan can be divided into three periods of time. The first period relates to migratory movements before the creation of Pakistan in 1947; the second relates to the large scale transfers of population between India and Pakistan (including East Pakistan, now Bangladesh) following the partition of the subcontinent in 1947; and the third period relates to post-Independence international migration, between the two countries up to 1961. The main sources of the data used in this study are the decennial population censuses of British India from 1901 to 1941 and the censuses of Pakistan and India for 1951 and 1961. Data on total population, place of birth, and religion have been taken from pre-1947 censuses while data about the displaced persons who migrated to Pakistan from India on account of the 1947 partition of the subcontinent have been drawn from the 1951 Census.

25 Migration between Pakistan and India Estimates of intercensal immigration, emigration and net external migration from India to Pakistan, as available from the place-of-birth data, are provided in Table 10 which shows that the estimated number of immigrants from the present India to what is now Pakistan was 418,704 during the 1901-11 decade. The number of emigrants from Pakistan to India during the same period was 57,005, leaving a net balance of 361,699 immigrants to Pakistan. During the 1911-21 period, the number of immigrants was 392,408 while that of emigrants to India was 107,108 so that there was a net balance of 285,300 immigrants during this decade. A provincial break-down of the migrants shows that the majority of the immigrants went to the Punjab during 1911-21. Although the 1911 Census does not give separate data on migrants for the Punjab and com- bines them with those for the N.W.F.P., it may be said that in the 1901-11 decade, too, the bulk of net immigrants took up residence in the Punjab.

During these two decades Baluchistan had a small but increasing balance of net immigrants from India. In Sind, however, the pattern of external migration in 1911-21 was different from that in the previous decade. While the intercensal period 1901-11 witnessed immigration only, there was a substantial balance of emigrants in 1911-21.

The intercensal period 1941-51 witnessed large-scale transfers of population between India and Pakistan in the wake of the partition of the subcontinent. The numbers of persons enumerated at the Census of 1951 as those who migrated to Pakistan from India or vice versa on account of the partition of the subcontinent are given in Table 10. The number of such displaced persons in Pakistan at the 1951 Census was 5,527,505. The number of similarly displaced persons from Pakistan, counted in the 1951 Census of India, was 4,699,492 leaving a net balance of 1,828,013 immigrants to Pakistan.

As far as province-wise balance of net displaced persons to Pakistan is concerned, the Punjab got 1.7 million of the total while the rest went to Sind (Table 10). The other two provinces, viz., the N.W.F.P. and Baluchistan, had fewer immigrants than emigrants.

26 co CO CO co o CD rtro in_ ioo_ co CD in" CM ^* »—ot" §5 CO 1 1 1

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CD" CM 0 2 » tí 4J "M I 1 •fi* T3 P I Estimates of immigrants from India to Pakistan during the intercensal period 1951-61 have been made from the place-of-birth data as available from the 1951 and 1961 Censuses of Pakistan. The 1951 Census enumerated 6,376,772 immigrants from India while the 1961 Census reported 5,596,139 immigrants. Allowing for mortality between 1951 and 1961, the estimated number of intercensal immigrants from India to Pakistan stands at 90,434.

Migration between Pakistan and Bangladesh With the separation of East Pakistan to become the sovereign state of Bangla- desh, internal migrations between the two former wings of Pakistan will now be considered external migrations. The numbers of people involved in migrations between Pakistan and Bangladesh during 1901-11, 1911-21 and 1951-61 intercensal periods are given in Table 11.

Table 11 Intercensal Migration between Pakistan and Bangladesh: 1901-11, 1911-21 and 1951-61

Intercensal Period Immigrants to Emigrants from Net Immigrants Pakistan Pakistan to Pakistan

1901-11 —510 416 —926 1911-21 2,733 —213 2,946 1951-61 28,722 7,774 20,948

As will be seen from Table 11, migration between Pakistan and Bangladesh has been very small. During the intercensal period 1901-11, there were less than one thousand net immigrants from Pakistan to Bangladesh. In the decade 1911-21, the estimated number of net immigrants to Pakistan was again small, being less than 3,000. The primary reason for such small movement was probably the distance of about a thousand miles between the two countries. During 1951-61, however, the number of immigrants to Pakistan was as high as 29,000 and that of emigrants to Bangladesh was 8,000, leaving a net balance of about 21,000 immigrants to Pakistan.

28 External Migration to Countries Outside the Subcontinent Inadequacy of relevant statistics does not permit arriving at estimates of external migration between Pakistan and other countries outside of the subcontinent. Where external migration prior to the creation of Pakistan is concerned, some information is available for the subcontinent as a whole [29] but not specifically for the regions which now constitute Pakistan. From the censuses of British India, 1901 through 1931, data on number of persons born in other countries but enumerated in the subcontinent are available. The corresponding information of those born in British India but enumerated in other countries is not generally available but may have been given in the censuses of other countries. Such data, wherever available, however, usually do not relate spearately to the actual migrants and the children of those migrants but refer to a combined population of both. A brief description of external migration based on studies already made from available information is given in the following paragraphs.

According to the 1901 Census, the number of the persons who were born in other countries and enumerated in the present areas of India and Pakistan was 588,944. The census count of such persons was 563,556 in 1911, 486,523 in 1921 and 593,281 in 1931. Thus the number of persons born in foreign lands remained around half a million during the whole period 1901-1931. Most of such immigrants came from the neighbouring Asian countries.

As far as emigration from the subcontinent to other countries is concerned, the history of labour emigration can be traced back to the early parts of the Nine- teenth Century when people from this part of the world went to the former British colonies in the West Indies, Africa and Oceania. During the early part of the Twentieth Century, emigration was mainly to countries within Asia such as Burma, Ceylon and Malaya. Such migration, however, decreased after the 1930's due to the world-wide economic depression and because of restrictions imposed by a majority of these countries. The overall available evidence on immigration and emigration shows that there was a continuous net decrease of population due to emigration from the subcontinent during the period 1901 through 1961.

29 m. POPULATION COMPOSITION

(a) Age and Sex The latest population census in Pakistan was conducted in September 1972, and the first census bulletin reports population totals by sex for the country and its different regions. As data on age distribution are still awaited, our discussion of the age-sex distribution of the population of Pakistan will cover periods ending with the 1961 Census only. For sex ratios, however, the period of study will be extended to use the 1972 Census results, preliminary as they are.

Sex Ratio Sex ratios in the population of Pakistan and its constituent provinces in the censuses during the period 1901 through 1972 are given in Table 12. It will be noted that sex ratios in Pakistan as well as in its provinces have been very high, although there is some indication of a decline in those ratios, particularly since 1951. Among the provinces, Sind and Baluchistan have been showing consistently higher sex ratios than the Punjab and the N.W.F.P.

The higher overall sex ratio for Pakistan, ranging from the minimum of 1129 males per 1000 females in 1972 to the maximum of 1224 in 1921, can be attributed to a number of factors, such as (i) higher number of male births than of female births, (ii) better census coverage of males than of females, (iii) higher female mortality, particularly among infants and in reproductive ages, etc. A change, particularly in the last two factors, would, over the time, decrease the male-to-female ratio in the total population. The decline in sex ratio over 1951-1972 is probably the resultant mainly of better coverage. Differences in provincial sex ratios reflect variations in the number and intensities of the determining factors operating in them and additionally the relative balance of male and female migrants.

Another factor responsible for sex ratio differences among the provinces is the degree to which they have been affected by internal migration which tends to be

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31 sex selective.involving males more than females. Since 1911, the lowest sex ratios have been consistently found in the N.W.F.P. indicating predominantly male out- migrations from that province. The provinces of Sind and Baluchistan, having high sex ratios, indicate that they have been the main recipients of the migrants from the Punjab and the N.W.F.P. Sind, however, has also been receiving migrants from India among whom the proportion of males increased rather steadily after 1951. The Punjab has had a relatively more balanced sex distribution as it has been experiencing both inflows and outflows of migrants.

Age Distribution The age distribution of a population at any timéis the outcome of the patterns of fertility, mortality and migration that the population has been experiencing. When population is closed to migration, fertility and mortality alone determine the age structure. In a country like Pakistan where levels of fertility are high, the proportion of population in the younger ages is higher than in countries where fertility is low. With further reduction in mortality, which is more likely to improve infant mortality, the number of infants and children surviving should go up, with the initial result of making the population still younger.

Under the present conditions of high fertility, the population of Pakistan can be expected to remain weighted heavily towards younger ages with porportions of older persons remaining relatively low. Errors in census coverage and reporting have given Pakistan a typical age structure which is not fully explainable by variations in fertility and mortality. Minimization of the effect of such errors through some adjustments should make it possible to draw useful inferences on birth and death rates from a study of age and sex distribution through an application of stable or quasi-stable models. One of the first attempts to use such approach was made by Ahmad [7] who estimated vital rates for Pakistan from the age distribution of the 1951 Census alone. Krokti [31] carried out similar analysis on the age distribution of the 1951 and 1961 censuses of Pakistan, and not only obtained estimates of vital rates but also arrived at estimates of underenumeration in the 1961 Census.

The age and sex distribution of the population as enumerated in the 1951

32 and 1961 Censuses is provided in Table 13 while the corresponding age- and sex-wise percentage distributions are given in Table 14. A comparison of the distributions of the two censuses shows significant changes in age structure over the 1951-61 decade. These changes are more conspicuous in the younger age groups, i.e., up to the 15-19 group. The maximum positive increase is, however, observed in the age group 5-9 whose proportion of the total population shows an increase from 13.1 percent in 1951 to 16.4 percent in 1961 (for both the sexes). Similarly the proportion of children within the 0-4 age group shows a total increase of 2.7 percentage points from 13.7 percent in 1951 to 16.4 in 1961. The 10-14 age group shows a phenomenal decrease of 6.7 percentage points from 16.4 percent in 1951 to 9.7 percent in 1961.

The 15-19 group also shows a significant decrease from 12.1 percent in 1951 to 9.0 percent in 1961. With the exception of the 20-24 and 50-59 age groups which show decreases between the 1951 and 1961 Censuses, all other higher age groups show intercensal increases.

A comparison of the age distributions in 1951 and 1961, whether in the form of percentage increases or in terms of differences in the percentage distributions, reveals contrasting variations in the age groups falling below 20 years of age. Although there is a high increase in the number of children under 10 years of age, significant decreases are observed in the 10-19 age groups. These differences in the increase of the population in the non-working and working ages changed the relative proportions of the two age groups substantially during the 1951-61 intercensal period.

The significant increase of population in the age group 5-9 between 1951 and 1961 is partly explained in terms of age mis-reporting due to the question on economic characteristics in the two censuses. In the 1951 Census the minimum age for inclusion in labour force was 12 years whereas in 1961 this limit was reduced to 10 years. Since both the censuses required additional information to be collected for persons in the labour force ages, census enumerators, in many cases, avoided the additional effort required for questioning and recording information in respect of economic activity of those in the labour force. As a result, many of the persons who were 12 years of age or older at the time of the 1951 Census were alleged to have been reported in ages of less than 12. Similarly, in the 1961 Census many persons who were 10 years

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35 of age or older were reported in the under-10 age groups. Such misreporting of ages in the two censuses due to labour force questionnaire resulted in abnormal increases in the 10-14 age group in 1951 and in the 5-9 age group in 1961. Such shifting in the reporting of persons in the lower age groups should obviously have resulted in corresponding decreases in the ages of over 12 years in 1951 and in that of 10 years and over in 1961. No such artificial shifting of persons to lower age groups is noticeable from the subsequent higher age groups. The higher age groups show slight increases almost throughout the age span.

A comparison of the sex ratios obtaining in 1951 and 1961 shows that the ratio declined during the intercensal period indicating better enumeration of females in the 1961 Census and possibly some improvement in female mortality.

In an analysis of the age and sex patterns of Pakistan as reported in the 1951 and 1961 Censuses, Krotki [31] has suggested that there was more underenumeration of girls than of boys up to the 20-24 age group. Moreover, it was also possible that the females as infants or as mothers in younger ages experienced higher mortality than boys of comparable ages. Carrying his arguments further, Krokti suggested from his analysis of age-sex cohorts that there was a shortage of 1,300,000 males and 2,650,000 females in the 1961 Census count which, if taken into account, would decrease the 1961 sex ratio from 1159 to 1070. Preliminary figures of the 1972 Census give the sex ratio as 1129, indicating that if Krotki's hypothesis of the extent of female underenumeration were accepted, the Census of 1972 suffered from the same pattern of female underenumeration as the past censuses even though the latest census showed improved coverage.

Overall Age-Sex Patterns, 1901 through 1961 Overall patterns of age distribution relevant to sex are provided in two tables. Table 15 shows the percentage distribution of males and females in Pakistan by age as enumerated in the Censuses of 1901 through 1961 while Table 16 gives age specific sex ratios (males per thousands females) for the same census years. It will be seen from Table 15 that the proportion of population, both males and females, in the younger age remained high over the years. The proportions of both males and

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38 females in the 0-4 age group show an upward trend over the 1901-1961 period. The main reasons for this trend are (i) improvement in the coverage of children, (ii) decline in infant mortality, and (iii) continuing high fertility. The sharp falls in the proportions of children in this age group in 1921 and 1951 reflect the effect of influenza epidemic as far as the former year is concerned and of the partition of the subcontinent in the case of the latter year [29, 44]. The age-sex distribution patterns are also reflected in the age specific sex ratios which have been provided in Table 16 for all the age groups given by the censuses, 1901 through 1961. The age-specific sex ratios, if they are not affected by sex specific net migration, should typically show a declining trend from the younger ages to the older ages [29]. In other words, the numerical excess of males over females at birth lessens with time because of the excess mortality of males over females at almost every age. As a result, the sex ratio in a population as a whole comes to reflect equal numbers of males and females. This is, however, not the case in Pakistan or similar other high-mortality countries for the female mortality is particularly high in such countries both in infancy and in reproductive ages. Such differentials in mortality between sexes tend to result in a shortage of females as against males in almost all ages. Another major factor influencing the sex ratio is the higher under-reporting of females than of males.

Apart from these two factors, inaccuracies in age reporting, particularly due to digital preferences for certain ages, affect the age specific sex ratios [29]. It will be noted from Table 16 that the sex ratios, although showinge erratic variations from age to age, remain very high for each age. The reported sex ratios are especially high in 10-19, 35-39 and 45-49 age groups. The higher sex ratio in the 10-19 age group is possibly due to under-reporting of females in their early puberty, and excess deaths among the females in their early motherhood. Between 1901 and 1961, however, an improvement in sex ratio for most of the age groups is evident, indicat-

ing gradual improvement in both the coverage kand quality of the age and sex reporting.

Pre-School Age Population Since the minimum age to enter a school in Pakistan is five years, the age group 0-4 is considered as pre-school age group. According to the 1961 Census, this group

39 formed 16.4 percent of the total population. The percentage of this group in the male population was 15.6 and in the female population was 17.3. The lower percentage of males than of females is not necessarily indicative of higher number of males; rather this indicates that relative to the overall sex ratio of Pakistan's population (1159), the sex ratio of this group (1046) is much lower. This shows that even if the number of males is higher than that of females in this age group, the relative proportion of female pre-school age children is greater than that of male pre- school age children.

The percentage of pre-school age population in 1951 was 13.7 (13.0 percent for females) which shows that during the intercensal period 1951-61, the proportion in this age group increased by 2.7 percentage points while the actual numbers in the age group increased by 50 percent. This increase may have been due to the following possible reasons:

(i) better coverage of children in the 1961 Census than in the 1951 Census; (ü) decrease in mortality of infants and children in the 1951-61 decade from that in 1941-51. It will be recalled that the latter decade experienced high mortality, especially among children and infants, associated with mass migrations and disturbances in the subcontinent; and

(IM) possible decrease in fertility in the years immediately following 1947. This decline in fertility may have resulted from population transfers and disturbances attendant on the partition of the subcontinent. The decrease in fertility might have been partially responsible for smaller number of children reported in 1951. If this were so, the relatively higher number of children reported in 1961 might have resulted from some compensating increase in fertility during 1951-61.

School Age Population In 1961, the percentage of the population in ages 5-19 years was 35.1 while in 1951 the percentage ot the same age group was 41.6 (Table 14). The intercensal decrease is associated with a relatively lower percentage of the children in the 0-4 age group in 1951 than in 1961 due to the reasons explained in the previous section.

40 Women in Child bearing Ages The percentage of female population in the child bearing age group (15-49), according to the 1961 Census, was 45.1. The corresponding percentage according to the 1951 Census was 44.0, which shows slight increase of one percentage point in this age group between 1951 and 1961.

Population in Working Ages The distribution of population in 1951 and 1961 by broad age groups 0-14, 15-64 and "65 and above" is shown in Table 17.

Table 17 Percentage Distribution of Population by Broad Age Groups: 1951 and 1961

1951 1961

Age Group Both Males Females Both Males Females Sexes Sexes

All Ages 1.00.0 100. 0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 0—14 43.1 42. 1 44.4 42.4 41.8 43.1 15—65 52.9 53. 9 51.7 52.7 52.9 52.5 64 and above 4.0 4. 0 3.9 4.9 5.3 4.4

Source: [22, Table III. 6]

The age group 15-64 is generally considered as working age group while the children in the age group 0-14 and persons in the age group '65 and over' constitute the dependency load. This is a crude classification as all the persons in the age groups 0-14 and '65 and over' may not be dependents. Similarly all the persons in ages 15-64 may not be supporters of dependency burden. Within the limitation of the definition the dependency ratio is calculated as follows:

Dependency Number of Children '0-14' -f- persons of age '65 and over' Ratio = Persons in ages 15-64

Dependency ratio in Pakistan of 0.90 in 1961 is one of the highest amongst those of the countries of this part of the world [22].

41 (b) Marital Status The 1961 Census of Pakistan classified the marital status of population into four categories, viz., (i) single persons (never married), (ii) married, (iii) widowed and (iv) divorced. The census gave a break-up of the population in each category by age and sex (Table 18). The distribution of marital status by age and sex was provided for persons aged '10 and over' as all those under 10 were reported as singles. Married persons also included those who had remarried after having been divorced.

The proportions of persons in each of the above categories by age and sex group, as reported in the 1951 and 1961 Censuses, are shown in Table 18. It will be noted that in 1961, the percentage of singles in the population was 30.4 as against 36.4 in 1951 while the percentage of married was 60.9 as compared with 26.2 in 1951. The percentage of widowed was 8.3 as against 7.0 in 1951; and the percentage of divorced was 0.32 as against 0.34 in 1951.

As far as sex-wise proportions are concenred, the percentage of singles amongst the males in 1961 was 37.5 as compared with 40.1 in 1951 ; 56 percent were reported as married in 1961 as against 53.6 percent in 1951 ; and 6.2 percent were widowed while 0.3 percent were divorced in 1961 as compared to 5.95 percent and 0.3 percent respectively in 1951. Among females the proportion of married increased from 59.4 percent in 1951 to 66.8 percent in 1961 whereas during the same period the proportion of the widowed rose from 8.3 percent to 10.9 percent.

The above comparison shows that the proportion of married males and females increased during the intercensal period while the proportion of singles in the population decreased. Subsequent to 1961, population distribution by marital status is available from data on the population of Pakistan as estimated by the PGE for 1965. However, the PGE provided the distribution by only two mutually exclusive catagories, viz,, 'never married or singles' and 'ever married including those currently married, widowed and divorced' [19].. A comparison of the 1961 Census and the 1965 PGE is, however, possible for porportions of singles which are provided in both the distributions. This comparison shows that the percentage of singles in the population increased from 30.4 (1961 census) to 34.3 (1965 PGE). The percentage

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45 of single males increased from 37.9 to 41.3 and of single females increased from 21.9 to 26.1.

Sadiq carried out a detailed analysis of the 1961 Census age-sex distribution by marital status in which he estimated average age at marriage for males as well as females from proportions of singles [45] His estimates for average age at marriage for males and females in Pakistan were 23.5 and 17.6 respectively.

In another analysis of the proprotions of singles in the PGE population of 1965, Afzal and Iftikhar prepared Net Nuptiality Tables for males and females in Pakistan [6]. These tables, in addition to providing estimates of average expected years to marriage (19.4 for males and 14.2 for females) and expected years of life after marriage (30.4 for males and 33.7 for females), also estimated average age at marriage of males as 25 and of females as 19 in 1965. When compared with Sadiq's estimates, these results show an upward trend in the age at marriage of both males and females between 1961 and 1965.

(c) Household and Family Information about households and family composition in Pakistan is available from the first Census of Housing [33] which was taken in 1960, only a year before the 1961 Census of Population. In this census a household was denned as "a collection of persons living and eating in one mess, with their dependents, relatives, servants and lodgers who normally reside together". The principal criterion was one of common cooking and messing facilities. The operational definition of family was "two or more persons mutually related who live together and share the same household".

According to the 1960 Housing Census, there were 7,159,634 households in Pakistan containing 39,535,804 persons giving an average of 5.5 persons per household. Out of the total households, 5,512,222 households, with 30,216,129 persons living in them, were enumerated in the rural areas whereas 1,647,412 households with 9,319,635 persons living in them were enumerated in urban areas. The average number of persons per household in the rural and urban areas was 5.5 and 5.7 respectively.

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47 The distribution of households by number of persons, along with corresponding break-down for rural and urban areas, is given in Table 19. It will be seen that in rural as well as urban areas modal household size is four and five persons. It will be further observed that the proportions of such households as carry one or two persons on the one hand and eight or more persons on the other are higher in urban than in rural areas. Households carrying the intervening numbers of persons each have a higher proportion in rural than in urban areas. The relatively higher proportion of households in the categories where number of persons is one or two is probably due to the persons who migrated to urban areas for economic opportunities and lived alone or with some companion. The higher percentage in urban areas of households with number of persons as one or more seems to be due to the larger proportion of such families in urban areas as have their children, particularly sons, living with them for a relatively longer duration on account of relatively late marriages. Another reason for the higher percentage of such households in urban areas is that, faced with shortage of housing facilities and higher rental charges, persons other than family members, whether related or unrelated, also share the household with families.

The percentage distribution of families in Pakistan by different types as given by the 1960 Census of Housing is provided in Table 20. The table shows that in all areas 56.5 percent families (7.9+48.6) can be categorised as nuclear families whereas 43.4 percent families are joint families. The percentage of joint families is higher in rural areas than in urban areas. Table 20 also shows that the average number of persons per family in Pakistan is 5.7 and that the average for urban areas is slightly higher than that for rural areas.

(d) Ethnicity, Race and Religion The people of Pakistan represent an intermixture of several racial and sub- racial groups, which invaded the subcontinent over the past five thousand years, coming mainly from Central and Western Asia. These racial groups included the Dravidians, Aryans, Greeks, Persians, Afghans, Arabs and Moghals. The dominant racial type in Pakistan is the Indo-Aryan.

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49 According to the 1961 Census, 97.17 percent of the population of Pakistan was Muslim. In the remaining population 1.45 percent were Hindus, 1.36 percent were Christians and the rest were Parsees, Buddhists and others.

(e) Education

According to the 1961 Census of Pakistan a person was considered to be literate on being able to read with understanding a short statement. The inability to write a statement did not exclude him from being considered as literate [8]. In the 1972 Census, however, only such person was considered literate as was able to read and write with understanding. Although complete results of the 1972 Census enumeration are not yet available, the percentage of literacy is given by the national sample of the Census Evaluation Survey which was carried out in 1972 just after the census itself. According to this survey, the percentage of literate persons, in population with age 5 years and over as defined for the 1972 Census, was 21.6 as against 16.3 in 1961. This means that if the 1972 Census had followed the same definition as the 1961 Census, the percentage of the literatein 1972 would have been even higher. It may be pointed out here that in 1961 the persons enumerated as literates did not include about 12 percent who were able to read only the Holy Quran [8]. If such persons were also considered literate, the literacy percentage in 1961 would move up to 28.2. If the percentage of the Holy Quran readers is considered to be the same in 1972 as in 1961, the literacy percentage in 1972 would also go up from 21.6 to about 33.6.

The 1961 Census showed that out of all the persons who were enumerated as literates, 10.7 percent were without formal education, 47.1 percent were educated to primary school levels (Class I to V), 29.9 percent had education up to Middle and Secondary School (Class VI to IX), 9 percent were educated up to matriculation, and 3.3 percent had attended Intermediate to higher degree classes.

Enrolment Status of School Age Population The enrolment status of the population in school age (5-19) is measured in terms of enrolment ratio which is defined as the number of persons of school age enrolled in different levels of school, divided by the number of persons of school age.

50 This ratio is generally shown as enrolments per hundred of school age population. In this section we present estimates of enrolment ratios for different levels of education in Pakistan as prepared by Karwanski [25]. These estimates are based on actual figures of enrolments for the year 1965 and the population estimates drawn from the population projections prepared by the Technical Sub-Committee of the Inter- Department Working Group on Population Growth [42]. According to these estimates the overall enrolment ratio for both sexes in 1965 was 21.4 percent whereas for 1970 it was estimated at 27.1 percent. Within the school age population, enrolment ratios for different levels of education are provided in Table 21.

Table 21 . . School Enrolments by Age and Stage ¡Level of Education in Pakistan : . 1965 and 1970

Percentage in Level/Stage of School F rl ii P?I tioti ijUULdLlvH Grade Age Group 1965a | 1970b

All levels I to XIII 5-19 21.4 27.1 : First Level Lower Stage ItoV 5-9 40.7 50.3 Higher Stage VI to VIII 10-12 14.8 25.6 Second Level Lower Stage IXtoX 13-14 8.6 11.4 Higher Stage XI to XII 15-16 4.3 • 4.9 Technical Second Level IX to XIII 13-17 0.4 0.5 Third Level (General & Technical) XIII+ 17-19 2.4 2.4 Source: [31, Table II, 39] aBased on actual enrolments bEstimated In 1965 the enrolment ratio at the First Level lower stage, which refers to grades I to V inclusive and age group 5-9, was 40.7 percent (Table 21). The higher stage of this level, referring to grades VI to VIII and age group 10-12, had the enrolment ratio of 14.8 percent indicating a significant drop-out of students from the lower stage to the higher stage of the First Level. From the higher stage of the First Level (Grades VI to VIII) to the lower stage of the Second Level (Grades IX and X), the enrolment ratio drops from 14.8 percent to 8.6 percent. This drop, however, is not as great as between the two stages of the Second Level. Enrolment ratio drops by 50 percent (from 8.6 to 4.3 percent) between the lower and the higher stages of the Second Level. Enrolment ratio goes down to 2.4 percent in the Third Level but the ratio for Technical Second Level is only 0.4 percent.

The estimates for 1970 have been prepared on the assumptions that nearly 100 percent enrolment ratio will be achieved by 1970 in the lower stage of the First Level and that the rate of growth in enrolment ratios in the Second Level will almost double. The latter assumption is based on an analysis of actual enrolment data upto 1967-68. For the Third Level also the assumptions are based on analysis of actual data. These estimates show that overall enrolment ratio in 1970 was 27.1 percent, registering an increase of 5.7 percentage points in five years. For the lower and higher stages of the First Level the corresponding ratios show increases of nearly 10 and 11 percentage points respectively whereas the increase in the lower stage of the Second Level is by 2.8 percentage points. The increases in the higher stages are rather insignificant.

52 IV. POPULATION DISTRIBUTION AND INTERNAL MIGRATION

Population Distribution (a) Regional According to the provisional results of the 1972 Census, Pakistan had a population of 64.89 million of whom 37.61 million were enumerated in the Punjab, 13.96 million in Sind, 10.9 million in the N.W.F.P. and 0.24 million in Baluchistan. The province-wise distribution of population in 1972 along with corresponding distributions at the 1951 and 1961 Censuses is shown in Table 22. It will be noted that during the intercensal period 1961-72, the population of Pakistan increased by 51.3 percent whereas corresponding increase during 1951-61 was only 27.2 percent. During the two decades, the highest intercensal percentage increase in provincial population was shown by Baluchistan during 1962-72 and by Sind during 1951-61. The descending order in which the other provinces showed percentage increases during 1961-72 was Sind, the Punjab and the N.W.F.P., while for 1951-61 it was the N.W.F.P., the Punjab and Baluchistan.

Table 22 Inter censal Population Growth in Pakistan and Provinces, 1951-61 a«¿ 1961-72* Population Percentage increase in thousands during Area 1951 | 1961 | 1972 | 1951-61 | 1961-72

Pakistan 33,740 42,880 64,892 27.2 51.3 N.W.F.P. (including Tribal Areas) 5,888 7,578 10,909 28.7 43.9 Punjab (including Islamabad) 20,476 25,582 37,609 24.0 47.0 Sind 6,209 8,367 13,965 34.8 66.9 Baluchistan 1,167 1,353 2,409 15.2 78.0

Source: [1, 32 and 34] •The intercensal period 1961-72 is about 1.7 years longer than the earlier ones. 53 A comparison of districtwise population distribution in 1961 and 1972 Cen- suses (Appendix Table I) shows that in the N.W.F.P. the two most populous districts in order are Hazara and Peshawar in both of which the increase of population during the 1961-72 intercensal period was about 46 percent. Among the districts of the N.W.F.P., the highest percentage increase (55.9) during 1961-72, however, took place in Kohat district.

Among the districts in the Punjab, the largest popul ation is found in Lyallpur district where, during the 1961-72 period, population increased by 57.7 percent. Multan district which carried the largest populations among the districts of the Punjab in 1961 showed a 48.4 percent increase during 1961-72 period and ranked second to Lyallpur in total population at the 1972 Census. The highest increase of 59 percent was shown by Gujranwala district.

Among the districts in the province of Sind, the largest population in the 1972 Census was carried by Karachi district whose population went up by 74 percent during the 1961-72 period. The next most populous district was Hyderabad wherein population increase during the last intercensal period amounted to 71 percent. Among the districts of Sind, the highest growth of 94 percent took place in Nawabshah district.

In Baluchistan, Quetta district had the largest population in 1972, which had increased by 85 percent since 1961. Sibi district ranked next to Quetta district in total population at the 1972 Census. Among the districts of Baluchistan, Kalat district showed the highest increase of 105 percent between the 1961 and 1972

Censuses. . r .

Population Density -•...... With a total area of 307,374. square miles and a census population of 64,892,000 in the 1972 Census, Pakistan had a density of 211 persons to the square mile in 1972, which was 72 persons per square mile more than in 1961 (Table 23). Among the provinces, not only did the Punjab have the highest density in 1972 but it also showed the highest percentage increase in density during the.1.961-72 period. The order in which the other provinces followed the Punjab was: N.W.F.P. Sind,

54 Tribal Areas and Baluchistan. Baluchistan, with 43 percent of Pakistan's area and 3.7 percent of the national population in 1972, is the most sparsely populated province of Pakistan.

Table 23

Population Density in Pakistan and Provinces, 1961 and 1972

Population Area (in thousands) Density per sq. mile Region in sq. miles 1961 1972 1961 1972 | Intercensal Increase

Pakistan 307,374a 42,880 64,892 139 211 72 N.W.F.P. 28,773 5,731 8,402 199 292 93 Tribal Areas'5 10,510 1,847 2,507 176 239 63 Punjab 79,284 25,488 37,374 321 471 150 Sind 54,407 8,367 13,965 154 257 103 . Baluchistan 134,050 1,353 2,409 10 18 8

Source: [34] aArea in square miles, as given in Press release on 1972 Census by Ministry of Interior, Government of Pakistan.

bCentrally Administered Tribal Areas,

(b) Urban—Rural Distribution Distribution of population by urban and rural areas of Pakistan at the censuses conducted from 1901 to 1972 is given in Table 24. In the 1972 Census, 24.4 million or 74.3 percent of Pakistan's population, were reported to be living in rural areas while 16.6 million or 25.7 percent of national population were reported as urban dwellers. The urban-rural distribution of population in Pakistan has changed considerably since 1901 when the percentage of population living in rural areas was as high as 90.2 while that of urban population was only 9.8. Over the years .1901 through 1972 relative increases over intercensal periods have been much higher in urban population than in rural population. For 1961-62 the high percentage increase in rural as well as urban population not only indicates a continued high rate of natural increase, but also reflects the longer intercensal period of eleven years and eight months as

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Population Growth in Cities and Metropolitan Areas Populations of 20 largest cities of Pakistan at the 1961 and 1972 Censuses together with intercensal increases are given in Table 25. Compared with the overall population growth (51 percent) during 1961-72, the growth of the combined population of these 20 cities (72 percent) during the same intercensal period has been considerably greater, largely due to migration. However, the rate of growth of these cities during 1961-72 was almost the same as that of all urban areas, taken together, during the same period.

As far as intercensal growth of individual cities is concerned, only five cities viz., Karachi, Rawalpindi, Lyallpur, Gujranwala and Wah Cantt. show higher growth than the overall urban growth of 75.0 percent. Cities showing lower growth than the rural growth of 43.8 percent are Hyderabad, Sialkot, Kasur, Jhang Mardan and Peshawar. The lower growth in these cities is attributable to out- migration. The rest of the cities grew at a rate between average rural growth rate and average urban growth rate. Prominent among this group of cities are Lahore, Multan, Sahiwal, Bahawalpur, Sukkur and Quetta.

Karachi continues to be the biggest and Lahore the next biggest city of Pakistan. The other big cities, in descending order, are Lyallpur, Hyderabad, Rawalpindi, Multan, Gujranwala and Peshawar.

Internal Migration Studies on internal migration in Pakistan have been based on place-of-birth and age-sex distribution data given in censuses. Davis [15], in his study of the population of India and Pakistan, provided some estimates of life time migrants to various regions in undivided British India. The first systematic study of internal migration in Pakistan was undertaken by Afzal [4]. This study provides estimates of internal migration to urban areas in Pakistan during 1951-61 through the application of census survival ratio approach to age data. A detailed study of internal migra-

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58 tion in Pakistan during various decades since the turn of the century up to 1961 has recently been made by Khan [29]. This study provides estimates of migrants to the provinces and districts in Pakistan from place-of-birth data and from the age and sex data as provided in censuses.

In view of the political history of the subcontinent, the study of migration in Pakistan can be divided into two time periods: one concerning the period 1901 through 1941 and the other covering the period 1941-61.

Migration Estimates From Age Data The estimates of net migration from age data prepared by Khan are presented in Table 26. These estimates suggest that during all the decades from 1901 through 1941 the districts that gained population through net migration" were Bhawalpur, Bahawalnagar, Rahim Yar Khan, Sahíwal, Multan, Muzaffargarh, Jhang, Mianwali and Sargodha, all located in the Punjab province. Except in 1901-11 decade when they lost population, Gujranwala, Lahore Sialkot, Gujrat and Rawalpindi districts also gained population in all other decades. The districts of Campbellpur and Lyallpur in the Punjab, and Dadu, Sanghar, Jacobabad and Nawabshah in Sind continued to gain population up to 1931 but lost some population during the decade 1931-41. Baluchistan lost population through net migration in all the decades while the N.W.F.P. lost population during 1931-41 but gained in all earlier decades through net migration.

The decade 1941-51 saw large scale migration of displaced persons from India after the independence of Pakistan in 1947. As a result, most of the districts in the Punjab and Sind gained population through net migration. Among the districts which gained most were Lyallpur, Sahiwal, Multan and Lahore in the Punjab, and Karachi in Sind. The districts with significant loss of population were Campbellpur, Sialkot and Mzaffargrah. The N.W.F.P., as a whole, lost about 0.3 million persons due to emirgration during the decade.

During the 1951-61 decade, die districts which received substantial numbers of net in-migrants were Karachi, Hyderabad, Nawabshah and Khairpur in Sind and Rahim Yar Khan, Multan, Lyallpur and Lahore in the Punjab. The

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61 districts which lost considerably were Sialkot, Sahiwal, Campbellpur and Jhelum. The N.W.F.P. and Baluchistan lost as a whole through net migration during the decade 1951-61.

Migration Estimates from Place-of-Birth Data Fom a single census the estimates of migration can be obtained from distribution of persons enumerated in a particular region, by their regions of birth. In such a distribution all those persons who are reported to have been born outside the place of enumeration are considered as life-time inward migrants, while those having been born and enumerated at the same place are called life-time non-migrants. The inward-migrants can be migrants from within the country, i.e, in-migrants, or from outside the country, i.e., immigrants. The term life-time signifies that nothing is known about the time which elapsed after migration up to the time of enumeration. Thus such migrants may have moved into the place of enumeration any time in the past. It is also obvious that the persons enumerated as life-time migrants would be survivors of those who actually migrated as some of the original migrants might have died by the time of census enumeration. Between two censuses, estimates of intercensal net migrants are obtained from numbers of life-time migrants enumerated at each census making due allowance for the mortality in the migrants reported from the first census through the use of survival ratio.

Life-time Inter-provincial Migration Numbers of life-time inter-provincial migrants to each province of Pakistan as estimated from place-of-birth data provided in the censuses relating to the present areas of Pakistan for the years 1901, 1911,1921, 1951 and 1961 are shown in Table 27. It can be observed that the extent of life-time migration among the provinces of Pakistan was relatively very small up to the Census of 1921. At the Census of 1901, migration to Sind was far greater than to any other province. Most of the migrants to Sind were drawn fromBaluchista n which province itself received the second highest number of life-time inter-provincial migrants, mostly from the Punjab and . the N.W.F.P. Life-time migrants to the Punjab and the N.W.F.P., combined, were relatively few.

>62 Table 27 Life-time Inter-Provincial Migration in Pakistan: 1901, 1911, 1921, 1951 & 1961

Region of Region of Birth in Pakistan "P Tin m príitíon J-JilLHil^l ttUUH Pakistan | Punjab N.W.F.P.* 1 Sind | Baluchistan

1 9 0 1 Pakistan 98,881 27,376 3,185 68,320 (Punjab) ) ) ) ) (N.W.F.P.) 5,552) -) 2,180) 3,372) Sind 81,283) 16,335 — 64,948 Baluchistan 12,046 11,041 1,005 1 9 1 1 Pakistan 133,860 22,725 37,423 2,695 71,017 Punjab 35,395 — 30,674 1,581 3,140 N.W.F.P. 11,999 11,678 — 121 200 Sind 77,637 6,786 • 3,174 — 67,677 Baluchistan 8,829 4,261 3,575 993 — ' 1 9 2 1 Pakistan 119,827 16,881 44,009 3,465 55,472 Punjab 37,102 — 2,737 3,003 31,362 N.W.F.P. 8,955 8,593 — 351 11 Sind 64,794 4,434 7,636 — 52,724 Baluchistan 8,976 3,854 5,011 Ill — 1 9 5 1 Pakistan 427,546 190,691 141,189 12,225 83,441 Punjab 85,133 — 71,214 9,316 4,603 N.W.F.P. 71,457 68,063 — 1,150 2,244 Sind 235,121 100,711 57,816 — 76,594 Baluchistan 35,835 21,917 12,159 1,759 — 1 9 6 1 Pakistan 762,884 387,266 265,993 36,732 72,893 Punjab 154,781 — 116,392 29,200 9,189 N.W.F.P. 72,765 67,705 — 4,340 720 Sind 487,883 292,042 132,857 — 62^984. Baluchistan 47,455 27,519 16,744 3,192 — Source: [30, Tables 4.4 and 4.5] * For 1901, data for the N.W.F.P. are included in those given for the Punjab. 63 The number of life-time migrants to Sind was again much higher than to any other province at the 1911 Census and, as in 1901, the majority of them were from Baluchistan. Though the Punjab and the N.W.F.P. also contributed some . migrants, the total number of such migrants was much smaller than of those from ' Baluchistan. The Province which received the next highest number of life-time migrants was the Punjab which had most of its migrants from the N.W.F.P. The life-time migrants to the N.W.F.P. were drawn almost wholly from the Punjab but their number was about one third of the number of migrants to the Punjab from the N.W.F.P. The life-time migrants to Baluchistan at the 1911 Census were considerably fewer than at the 1901 Census. These migrants were predominantly from the Punjab and the N.W.F.P.

The Census of 1921, too, placed Sind in the leading position in respect of the numbers of life-time migrants received. As at the earlier two censuses, at this census also the bulk of the life-time migrants to Sind came from Baluchistan. The province which received the second highest number of life-time migrants was again the Punjab which was followed by Baluchistan and the N.W.F.P.

While in total interprovincial migration the relative positions of the provinces were the same in the 1951 Census as in 1911 and 1921, the volume of migration was almost four times that of 1921. According to this census, the life-time migrants to Sind were mostly fromth e Punjab and the N.W.F.P. The migrants from Baluchis- tan numbered considerably more than in 1921. The Punjab and the N.W.F.P. had almost equal number of life-time migrants from each other. Baluchistan had most of its migrants from the Punjab and the N.W.F.P.

According to the 1961 Census, Sind again had the largest number of life-time migrants, more than half of whom were from the Punjab and about a third from the N.W.F.P. The number of migrants from Baluchistan was not very much different from that in the previous years. The Punjab, coming next in order, had again the predominant share of life-time migrants from the N.W.F.P. About one-fifth of the migrants to the Punjab were from Sind. The patterns of other provinces were similar to those at: the previous censuses.

64 Intercensal Inter-Provincial Migration Life-time migrants in themselves are only indicative of the extent to which persons not having been born in a particular region are enumerated in that region at the time of a census. Thus life-time migrants have no reference to time period within which the change of residence actually takes place. It is, however, possible to estimate the volume of intercensal in-migrants, out-migrants and net migrants from life-time migrants from two consecutive censuses. Since the Censuses of 1901, 1911, 1921 (all before the independence of Pakistan) are the only ones which provide population breakdown by place of birth, it has been possible to estimate numbers of life-time migrants to various regions only for the period between 1901 and 1921. After 1947, place-of-birth data were provided in the 1951 and 1961 Censuses from which life-time migrants have been estimated for the relevant periods. Using the estimates of life-time migrants for the above-mentioned censuses, estimates of intercensal internal migration have been made for the period 1901-11, 1911-21 and 1951-61. Such estimates for internal migration among the provinces of Pakistan are provided in Table 28. Since no separate data were available for the Punjab and the N.W.F.P. in the 1901 Census, combined estimates are provided for the two provinces for the intercensal period 1901-11 whereas for 1911-21 and 1951-61 separate estimates for the Punjab and the N.W.F.P. are available.

During the intercensal period 1901-11, the number of in-migrants was highest in Sind. With the out-migrants being insignificantly small the net migrants were almost the same as in-migrants. The provinces of the Punjab and the N.W.F.P. together lost some persons to Sind and Baluchistan. During 1911-21, the Punjab had the highest number of net migrants who were drawn predominantly from the N.W.F.P. Immigrants to Sind diminished to one-third the size of the in-migrants to this province in 1901-11. During both these decades, the combined areas of the Punjab and the N.W.F.P. lost some persons although the former had net balance of in-migrants while the latter lost mostly through out-migration to the Punjab and Sind. Sind gained a large number of persons mostly through immigration from Baluchistan and the N.W.F.P.

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Summary of Migration Estimates

The estimates of net migration to various regions in Pakistan, as described earlier, are based on two types of data which have been drawn from the periodic censuses from 1901 through 1961. One set of these estimates which have been obtained from age data, provides net intercensal migrants to Pakistan, its provinces and districts from all other regions within the subcontinent. The second set of estimates which have been drawn from the place-of-birth data indicates the extent of net migration among the provinces of Pakistan and among districts within a province.

The estimates of intercensal net migration between Pakistan and India, as obtained from age data, are comparable with the corresponding estimates obtained for Pakistan from place-of-birth data. Such comparison is, however, only possible for the intercensal periods 1901-11, 1911-21 and 1941-51. For the remaining decades, estimates of net migration to Pakistan are available from the age data alone although, for 1951-61, the place-of-birth data provided estimates of in-migrants from India. For the period 1951-61, estimates from place-of-birth data present the net balance of refugees who came over to Pakistan from India and from India to Pakistan, after the indepence of Pakistan. The estimates of net migrants from India

67 to Pakistan thus arrived at through the two approaches mentioned earlier are shown in Table 29.

Table 29 Intercensal Net Immigrants to Pakistan from India obtained from Age Data and Place-of-Birth Data from Censuses, 1901-11 through 1951-61.

Intercensal Estimated Net Migrants Period from Age from Place-of- Average Data birth data

1901-11 403,757 360,775 382,266 1911-21 198,981 288,246 243,614 1921-31 729,051 N.A. 729,051 1931-41 661,017 N.A. • 661,017 1941-51 1,707,794 1,828,013 1,767,904 1951-61 133,453 90,434* 119,944

Source : [30] •Immigrants only

These estimates show reasonably comparable results despite methodological differences and differences in the nature and relative accuracy of data.

Corresponding to net migrants to the country as a whole, the estimates of net migrants to each province and to administrative district within a province as obtained from age data are provided in Table 26. It is observed that m all the decades before the independence of Pakistan, the number of net migrants to the Punjab remained very high. The main stream of migrants in this province went to Lyallpur, Sahiwal, Bahawalnagar, Sheikhupura, Gujranwala, Sargodha, Multan and Jhang districts. During 1901-11, Sargodha, Lyallpur, Jhang, Multan and Sahiwal districts received a large number of migrants to the colonies which sprang up in these areas due to extension of canal irrigation in the Punjab. Further, there was considerable migration to Bahawalpur and Rahim Yar Khan districts due to similar colonisation of the Cholistan lands. The other district which gained migrants from other areas was Lahore where the main attraction was provided by educational institutions and employment opportunities, particularly in the capital city of Lahore.

68 In Sind the districts of Karachi, Tharparkar and Khairpur experienced net migration during all the decades before 1947. During 1921-31, Sind gained a large number of net migrants from Baluchistan who worked as labourers on the Sukkur Barrage which was then under construction. The barrage having been completed in the thirtiees, there was a net in-ward migration to Khairpur during the intercensal period 1931-41 due to the return to the lands on the new barrage canals of many of the people who had migrated previously to other places. The extensive cultivation of land made possible by the new barrage canals was also the reason for attracting a large number of migrants to Tharparkar district during the same period.

Among the remaining two provinces, Baluchistan generally had net balance of out-migration to other areas of the subcontinent during most of the period between 1911 and 1947. The N.W.F.P., however, gained through net migration during this period.

After the independence of Pakistan, the movements of the displaced persons from India and Pakistan figured as the major migratory movements of the subcontinent, particularly in the areas which were most affected by the partition of the subcontinent. Pakistan received many more displaced persons from India than the displaced persons who went to India from Pakistan. The main influx of refugees from India was in the Punjab in Pakistan, which received by far the largest number of the displaced persons. The largest proportion of the displaced persons enumerated in the Punjab during the 1951 Census was in the districts of Lahore, Sahiwal, Lyallpur, Bahawalpur, Sheikhupura and Multan.

Large numbers of displaced persons who came to Sind in the same decade were counted mostly in Hyderabad, Sanghar, Tharparkar, Thatta and Nawabshah districts. In Baluchistan, the districts of Quetta-Pishin, Kharan and Mekran were the chief recipients of migrants after 1947. The N.W.F.P. as a whole lost substantially through intercensal net migration. In that province out-migrants to India after 1947 were not balanced by refugees from India so that there was net balance of out-migrants from the N.W.F.P.

Looking at the migratory patterns to different areas during the intercensal period 1951-61, it is observed that the picture during this decade was different from

69 that in 1941-51. The reason for this change was that the main bulk of the displaced persons who arrived from India between 1947 and 1951 started redistributing themselves to other areas. The internal migration during the 1951-61 decade, therefore, consisted of further internal migration of refugees and the migration of those who were born within the regions which now constitute Pakistan. Estimates of net internal migration, from both age data and place-of-birth data, clearly suggest that the redistribution of the displaced persons figured quite significantly within the overall net internal migratory movements. The Punjab, which had been gaining net migrants throughout, lost net out-migrants to the extent of 0.3 million. The N.W.F.P. and Baluchistan showed net losses during the same decade. Sind gained as many as 0.7 million net migrants indicating that many of the migrants who came to the Punjab and other provinces first,shifte d over to Sind in the decade 1951- 61. The main source of attraction for displaced persons in Sind was the city of Karachi, which at that time was the Capital of Pakistan in addition to being the main seaport, airport, and a fast growing commercial and industrial centre. Next to Karachi the highest number of net migrants went to Hyderabad district. Chief among the other districts of Sind which received migrants were Khairpur, Nawab- shah and Sanghar.

Rural-Urban Migration The pace of urbanization in Pakistan has remarkably increased in recent years. The distribution and the intercensal growth of rural and urban populations, shown in Table 24, indicate that population in urban areas has been growing more rapidly than the rural population. The extra growth in the urban areas is obviously associated with the continuous streams of rural-to-urban migrations. Yet another example of migration to urban areas is the growth of the population of cities which has been described in Table 32 for the intercensal period 1961-72.

In describing the patterns of migrations to urban areas we shall be referring to the results available from the studies on internal migration made by Khan [29] and Afzal [4]. In the absence of birth-place data by rural and urban breakdown, these studies have used either totals of population or distribution by age and sex to arrive at estimates of internal migration to urban areas in Pakistan. In estimat-

70 ing internal migration to different areas, Khan used the ratios of population totals of the whole subcontinent in consecutive censuses to separate the contribution of natural increase from intercensal growth in a particular urban area whereas in the studies by Afzal the survival ratio of Pakistan's population from one census to the next was used to separate the effect of mortality, leaving balance of net migrants of the age 10 and over in a particular urban area. Another difference between the two studies is that while Afzal's study was limited to the intercensal period 1951-61, the study by Khan provided intercensal estimates for the decades 1901-11 through 1951-61.

Khan's estimates of migrants to urban areas (Table 30) show that except in 1951-61 decade, the Punjab had by far the largest number of migrants to its urban areas after 1911. The estimated migrants in this province during the decade 1911-21 numbered 110, 814 but increased to 286,923 in 1921-31. During the intercensal period 1931-41 the number of such migrants was slightly higher than of those of the previous decade. After 1947 net migrants to urban areas in the Punjab reached an all-time maximum of 821, 641 due to the influx of refugees from India who settled mostly in urban areas of the Punjab. During 1951-61, the number of migrants dropped somewhat (663,401) but was still more than double that of 1931-41. The N.W.F.P. was the only province which had a net loss of urban migrants in the 1941-51 decade. The gain achieved during 1951-61 in this province was not very great and was close to the figures of the pre-1931/41 decades. In the N.W.F.P., the main districts gaining urban population were Peshawar and Mardan.

Sind was the biggest gainer of migrants to urban areas during 1951-61, but that province had also received many migrants during 1941-51. The migrants in 1951- 61 were, however, six times those in 1941-51. The districts of Sind which gained most in urban population were Karachi and Hyderabad.

Baluchistan had very few in-migrants to it's urban areas, and Quetta was the main district of attraction for such migrants. ;

Estimates by Afzal of such migrants to urban areas as were of age 10 and over during the intercensal period 1951-61 are shown in Table 31. These estimates

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73 also provided breakdown of migrants by sex. The total number of net migrants of ages 10 and over to urban areas in Pakistan was 1,246,310 out of whom 589,989 were drawn by the urban areas of the Punjab, 606,430 went to Sind urban areas, 48,946 to the N.W.F.P. urban centres and only 945 to urban areas of Baluchistan.

Table 31 Net Migrants of Ages 10 and Over to Urban Areas by Provinces in Pakistan: 1951-61 Number of Net Migrants Province Both Sexes Males | Females

Punjab 589,989 345,999 243,990 N.W.F.P. 48,946 28,627 20,219 Sind 606,430 364,062 242,368 Baluchistan 945 571 374

Pakistan 1,246,310 739,259 507,051

Source : [4]

Among the provinces, therefore, Sind showed the highest number of urban migrants, and was followed closely by the Punjab. The volume of migration to urban areas both in Sind and the Punjab was about 15 times that of urban migration in the N.W.F.P. Baluchistan, of course, had least migration among all the provinces due primarily to very small number of the people living in the province and the low density of population.

The highest migration observed for Sind is primarily due to the very large number of migrants to Karachi, the most industrialized and commercial city of Pakistan. The large volume of migration in the Punjab is associated with the fact that it has the major proportion of the population of the country. Urban migration in the Punjab has been mostly to the regions which are industrial, commercial and educational centres. Sargodha, Lahore and Multan divisions which contain most of such regions have, therefore, been getting the largest proportions of urban migrants in the Punjab. These two provinces have not only been drawing urban migrants internally and from each other but also from the N.W.F.P. and Baluchistan,

74 and this is partly the reason for lesser migration to the urban areas of the latter provinces.

In another study by the same author, estimates of net intercensal migration of males, aged 10 and over, to various cities of Pakistan have been prepared on the same basis. These estimates are compared in Table 32 with the intercensal increase of male non-agricultural labour force in these cities.

Table 32 Net Migration of Males to Cities and Increase in Male Non-Agricultural Labour Force: 1951-61

| Net Intercensal Increase in Male Non- City | Male Migrants of agricultural Labour | ages 10 and over i orce age 12 and over Peshawar 17,526 18,204 Rawalpindi 20,868 53,310 Sargodha 13,999 21,445 Lyallpur 84,362 70,018 Lahore 102,101 144,695 Sialkot —19,823 4,054 Multan 51,012 49,891 Sukkur 3,223 4,349 Hyderabad 64,284 46,540 Quetta 1,690 3,645 Karachi 266,297 243,646 Gujranwala 17,166 26,144

Source : [5]

The Table shows that Karachi received by far the highest number of male migrants during the period 1951-61. The other prominent cities getting male in- migrants are Lahore, Lyallpur, Multan and Hyderabad. The only city showing net out-migration is Sialkot. Table 32 also shows that except for Sialkot, the intercensal increases in male non-agricultural labour force closely correspond with the volume of net intercensal male migrants to all the cities. This indicates that the increases in non-agricultural labour force are to a large extent contributed by the net in-migrants to each city.

75 V. THE LABOUR FORCE In Pakistan the main sources of statistical data on labour force are population censuses and the periodic labour force surveys conducted by the Statistical Division. The Census of 1972 did not collect data on labour force in its total coverage but a post-censal Housing, Economic and Demographic (HED) Survey will provide such data. In the Censuses of 1951 and 1961 as well as in the labour force surveys, labour force has been defined in different ways. In the 1951 Census all persons aged 12 years and over who were self-supporting, partially self-supporting or seeking work were included in the labour force. In the 1961 Census the definition of labour force was changed to include all those persons aged 10 years and over who were working for profit or earning wages or salary, helping any member of their family, or were not working but looking for work during the 'previous' week. Thus, apart form lowering the qualifying age, the latter census also expanded the concept of labour force to include unpaid family workers as well, a substantial proportion of whom are females.

In the labour force surveys the definition of labour force includes all non- institutional persons of age '10 and over', employed or unemployed during the 'previous week'. The employed include those either working for pay or profit, in cash or kind, including unpaid family workers reporting at least 15 hours of work during the previous week or reporting a job but not having worked. The unemployed include all those either looking for work or temporarily laid off or with an assured job but not having started work. Thus, the definition of labour force adopted for the labour force surveys is closer to the 1961 Census definition. Persons considered as economically inactive or not in labour force include all those who were, (i) of age less than 10 years, (ii) keeping house, (iii) going to school, (iv) retired and not doing any work, (v) land-lords, (vi) beggars, etc.

In an analysis of labour force data for the pre-Independence period relating to areas which now constitute Pakistan, Farooq [17,18] has described the definitions used in the censuses conducted in the subcontinent from 1901 to 1931. These censuses

76 used the concept of 'gainful worker' as against the concept of labour force used in the censuses of 1951 and 1961. In the pre-Independence censuses, earners were considered as those who actually worked or carried on business whether personally or by means of servants ; or who lived on rent, pension, etc., or who had a share in property or trade or financial concern and were supported or principally supported thereby. All persons other than those covered by the above categories were considered as dependents. The 1931 Census definition, however, also included in the category of earners such persons as were 'working dependents,' i.e., those who were assisting other members of the family at their work. This definition is, therefore, close to the 1961 Census definition.3 (a) Composition of Labour Force According to the 1961 Census, 32.4 percent of the total population was enumerated as 'in labour force' while the remaining 67.6 were categorized as 'not in labour force.' By sex, 55 percent of all males and 6.1 percent of all females were reported in the labour force. A more realistic picture of the proportions in labour force is provided if the percentages are taken by excluding the number of children under 10 years of age from the total population since in the 1961 Census 10 years is the minimum age limit for a person to be included in labour force. A comparison of percentages in labour force out of the population of age '10 and over', for each sex by rural and urban areas in Pakistan is provided in Table 33. Table 33 Proportions of Population in Labour Force by Sex and Rural-Urban areas in Pakistan: 1961 All Areas Rural Areas I Urban Areas Category of Population Both Fe- Both Fe- Both Fe- Sexes Males males 'Sexes Males males Sexes Males males Population (10 years and over) 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Labour Force 48.1 80.8 9.3 49.9 83.9 10.9 43.0 72.2 4.0 Not in Labour Force 51.9 19.2 90.7 51.1 16.1 89.1 57.0 27.8 96.0 Source: [22, Table IV. 1] 3. For details of specific concepts used to describe the labour force in the censuses of 1901 through 1931, see [18].

77 In 1961, 80.8 percent of males aged 10 and over were in the labour force compared with only 9.3 percent of females. The percentages are higher for both males and females in rural areas than in urban areas. The conspicuously low percentage of females in economic activity in urban areas indicates almost full time involvement in house- keeping by most of the females in urban areas.

Farooq [18J has estimated proportions of total population by sex in labour force from census data relating to the areas now constituting Pakistan from 1901 through 1961, as shown in Table 34. Table 34 Population, Labour Force and Crude Labour Force Participation Rales by Sex in Pakistan: 1901—1961

Total Labour Percentage Dependents Population* Force (in in Labour per thousand Year Sex (in thousands) thousands) Force Labour Force Participants

1901 Both Sexes 16,502 5,737 34.8 1,877 Males 8,937 5,098 57.0 Females 7,565 639 8.4 1911 Both Sexes 17,676 6,052 34.1 1,934 Males 9,702 5,528 57.0 Females 7,974 497 6.2 1921 Both Sexes 18,243 6,079 33.3 2,001 Males 10,059 5,642 56.1 Females 8,184 437 5.4 1931 Both Sexes 21,248 6,762 31.8 2,142 Males 11,709 6,304 53.8 Females 9,539 458 4.8 1951 Both Sexes 31,948 9,812 30.7 2,256 • Males 17,204 9,495 55.2 Females 14,744 317 2.2 1961 Both Sexes 39,442 12,763 32.4 2,090 Males 21,168 11,641 55.0 Females 18,274 1,122 6.1 Source: [18, Table IV] •Excluding Frontier Regions

78 The number of persons in the labour force steadily increased from 5.7 million in 1901 to 12.8 million in 1961, the average annual growth rate being 1.3 percent, which is less than the corresponding average annual growth rate of 1.5 percent in population during the same period. The higher population growth rate as compared to thatof labour force has led to an increase of dependency from 1,877 (dependents per 1000 labour force participants) in 1901 to 2,090 in 1961. During the same period, the crude labour force participation rates showed a decline from 34.8.percent to 32.4 percent, but the drop was more significant from 1901 to 1951 with a subsequent up-swing between 1951 and 1961. The observed decline in the crude labour force participation rates can be largely explained by the higher level of fertility and a steady decline in mortality resulting in increasing size of population and larger proportion of children. The reasons for declining participation rates are, however, difficult to explain fully. A counter-balancing factor has been the larger number of in-migrants to the present areas of Pakistan from other parts of the subcontinent than that of the out-migrants during all the intercensal periods between 1901 and 1951.

Between 1951 and 1961, crude labour force participation indicated a reversal of the previous trend, as the rates show an increase from the level of 30.7 percent to 32.4 percent. This change appears to be particularly striking as the 1961 Census reported a higher proportion of persons under 10 years of age than the 1951 Census. Further, there were increases in educational opportunities and migration to urban areas. One of the important factors of these increases obviously was the lowering of the minimum age for enumeration in labour force from 12 years in 1951 to 10 years in 1961. Another significant factor which seems to have pushed up the overall activity rate is that female participation in the labour force showed an increase from 2.2 percent to 6.1 percent, though male participation actually shows a slight decline from the level of 55.2 percent to 55 percent. The observed increase in female economic activity is, to a large extent, due to change in the definition of labour force since in 1961 it was only necessary to be helping a member of the family in order to be included in the labour force. This change resulted in a better coverage of unpaid family workers who were largely excluded from the labour force in the 1951 Census. The slight decline in male activity has been attributed

79 by Farooq to greater under-coverage of males due to their migratory movements at the time of the 1961 Census enumeration, and also to increased participation in activities other than civil [18].

(b) Agricultural and Non-agricultural Labour Force According to the 1961 Census, 32.4 percent of the total population aged 10 and over was in the labour force which consisted of 19.2 percent in the agricultural and 13.2 percent in the non-agricultural labour force. For a comparison of the 1961 and 1951 Censuses, one has to follow the definition of the 1951 Census in which the minimum age for inclusion in labour force was 12 years as against 10 years in the 1961 Census. With this definition, the percentages of agricultural labour force in the total population were 19.9 in 1951 and 18.8 in 1961, showing a decrease over the intercensal period. The percentage increase in the absolute size of agricultural labour force was 19.8 percent and in that of non-agricultural labour force was 55 percent, showing a significant shift of labour force participation from agricultural to non- agricultural sector over the decade. This shift is, of course, associated with increased industrialization and development of non-agricultural activities.

The 1972 Census of the entire population does not provide information about the labour force ; rather such data have been obtained through a postcensal survey (HED Survey). The results of this survey are not yet available. Beyond 1961, the only other source to provide information on labour force is the series of labour force surveys conducted by the Statistical Division. On the basis of the information provided by these surveys and the estimates of total population worked out on the basis of observed inter-censal population growth rate from the 1961 and 1972 Census totals, a series of crude labour force participation rates (percentage of labour force aged '10 and over' in the total population) has been compared by Beg [11]. Table 35 provides these rates with their breakup by agricultural and non-agricultural activities.

The crude labour force participation rate increased from 32.4 percent in 1961 to 34.0 percent in 1971 showing an overall gain in economic activity. During the same period agricultural proportion of participation rate increased from 19.2 percent to 19.5 percent while non-agricultural proportion of participation rate in-

80 Table 35 Crude Labour Force Participation Rates in Agricultural and Non-Agricultural Activities in Pakistan: 1961-1971

Year | All activities Agricultural Non-Agricultural 1 activities activities 1961 32.4 19.2 13.2 1963 32.6 19.7 12.9 1964 33.8 19.8 14.0 1965 33.8 19.8 14.0 1966 33.4 17.8 15.6 1967 33.9 18.9 15.0 1968 33.5 18.7 14.8 1969 34.5 19.7 14.8 1970 34.5 19.9 14.6 1971 34.0 19.5 14.5

Source: [11, Table III] creased from 13.2 to 14.5 percent, implying that relative to the growth of agricultural activities that oí non-agricultural activities was higher. A comparison of the 1951 and 1961 Censuses, and the description of labour force activities during 1961-71 indicate that during both the decades the proportion oflabour force in non-agricultural activities increased more than the proportion in agricultural activities and that overall increase in the total labour force predominantly reflects the effect of increase in non-agricultural activities.

(c) Employment Status The distribution of crude labour force participation rates by employment status is provided in Table 36.

While the crude labour force participation rate increased from 32.4 percent in 1961 to 34.0 in 1971, the employed proportion of the participation rates increased from 31.8 to 33.3. The 1971 data, based on the labour force survey, indicate that the growth of employment opportunities during the 1961-71 decade was slightly more than the growth of labour force itself. The growth in labour force participation and

81 Table 36 Crude Labour Participation Rates by Employment Status in Pakistan: 1961 and 1971

Category of Population 1961a 1971b

Total Population 100.0 100.0 Civilian Labour Force 32.4 34.0 (i) Employed 31.8 33.3 (ii) Unemployed 1.0 0.7 Not in Civilian Labour Force 34.8 32.0 Source: [32] for (a) and [11] for (b). particularly in the proportion of the total population employed is associated with the growth in the overall economy of the country, especially in its non-agricultural sector. It may, however, be pointed out that the data for 1971, being based on a sample survey, are subject to sampling and non-sampling errors and are thus not exactly comparable with the 1961 Census data. It is possible that the change in rates might partially or fully be explained by these differences. (d) Status Composition Based on the detailed cross-sectional study of Pakistan's labour force at the 1961 Census by Farooq [17], the status compositions of agricultural and non-agricultural labour force are given in Tables 37 and 38 respectively. Table 37 Percent Distribution of Cultivators by Status and Sex in Pakistan: 1961

Status | Both Sexes | Males | Females

All Cultivators 100.0 100.0 100.0 Owning all land tilled 25.6 27.7 9.6 Renting all land tilled 27.3 29.7 5.9 Owning part and renting part 8.8 9.7 1.2 Owning part, renting part and also working for hire 0.6 0.7 0.3 Renting land tilled and also working for hire 1.0 1.1 0.4 Landless agricultural labourers 8.1 8.6 3.6 Unpaid family workers 28.6 22.6 78.9 Source: [17, Table IV-2]

82 In the 1961 Census, 25.6 percent of all the cultivators were reported as "owning all land tilled". The combined group of cultivators classified as "renting all land tilled" (tenants) and "owning part and renting part" (owner-tenants) formed 36.1 percent of all the cultivators. At the same time, the cultivators who were reported as landless agricultural labourers", "owning part, renting part and also working for hire" and "renting land tilled and also working for hire" constituted 9.7 percent of all the cultivators (Table 37). Members of the latter group form the most fluid part of the agricultural labour force, as these are subject to frequent underemploy- ment.

Table 38 Percent Distribution of Non-Agricultural Labour Force by Status and Sex in Pakistan: 1961

Status Males Females

Total 100.0 100.0 Employers 1.0 0.1 Employees 37.1 27.9 Own-account workers 53.2 51.2 Unpaid family workers 5.4 19.3 Not stated 3.2 1.4

Source: [17, Table IV—37]

In the status composition of the non-agricultural labour force, employers form a very small proportion. Among males 37.1 percent were employees while among females, employees account for 27.9 percent. Slightly more than half of both males and females were 'own account workers'.

(e) Occupation and Industry Further details about the structure and organisation of labour force are given by the status composition of different industrial groups in the non-agricultural labour force.

83 Table 39 Status Composition of Selected Industrial Groups of the Non-Agricultural Labour Force in Pakistan by Sex: 1961 Industry Total Employers Employees Own- Unpaid account family workers workers Males Mining 100.0 0.3 80.0 18.8 0.8 Manufacturing 100.0 0.9 33.4 48.9 6.8 Construction 100.0 1.0 33.1 62.9 2.9 Electricity, gas, water, etc. 101.0 0 1 98 4 1.3 0.2 Commerce 100.0 6.4 16.9 72.2 4.4 Transportation, Storage 100.0 0.5 52.4 43.7 3.4 & Communication F e m a I e s Manufacturing 100.0 0.1 5.8 71.0 23.1 Construction 100.0 0.1 16.7 65.3 17.9 Commerce 100.0 0.7 6.2 77.1 16.1 Transportation, Storage 100.0 0.9 57.8 26.6 14.7 and Communication Source: [17, Table IV—1]

The status composition of manufacturing (Table 39) indicates a relative absence of large-scale modern manufacturing enterprises in Pakistan which contri- bute a very large proportion of employees in this industry in the more developed countries. However, during the decade 1961-71, the participation of labour force in non-agricultural activities has increased. This implies an appreciable increase in the proportion classified as employees. Mining and electricty, gas, water, etc., have the highest proportions of employees. Similarly, the "Transportation, storage, and communication" category also shows a substantial proportion of employees in contrast to commerce and manufacturing which show higher percentages of "own- account workers."

(f ) Age-Sex Distribution of Labour Force The age and sex distribution of the labour force by different categories of activities in 1961 is presented in Table 40. It will be seen that the proportions of male agricul-

84 tural labour force in ages 10-19 and '45 and over' are higher than the proportions of male non-agricultural labour force in corresponding ages. However, for ages 20 to 44, it is the male non-agricultural labour force which has higher proportions. Thus, in the male agricultural labour force, participation starts at relatively younger ages and ends at relatively old ages. Among females, age distribution patterns in agricultural and non-agricultural labour force are different from those among males in that the female proportions in agricultural labour force are higher only up to age 34, after which the corresponding proportions are higher in non-agricultural labour force. It is evident, however, from the data in Table 40 that among both males and females the majority of the new entrants into the labour force were still engaged in agriculture, which implies the continuation of agriculture as the major source of living for some time in the future as well. While variations in age distribution between agricultural and non-agricultural labour force as well as in major categories of the non-agricultural force are considerable, variations among females by age and labour force category are much less.

Age-Sex Specific Activity Rates Crude labour force participation rates, affected as they are by age structure, do not provide a good measure for inter-regional or international comparisons of labour force activity. The effect of age structure is, however, eliminated to a large extent through the use of age specific activity rates. Table 41 provides age specific labour force participation rates for males and females in Pakistan on the basis of the 1961 Census data. The table also gives corresponding activity rates by rural and urban areas.

As would be expected, the participation rate is minimum for the age group 10-14 after which it rises to the maximum level in the age group 45-54 beyond which it declines. No difference is observed in the pattern of male and female age specific participation rates, although the levels are different.

Higher labour force participation rate is reported particularly for the age group 10-14 for rural areas than for urban areas. The rural-urban differentials essentially are in line with differentials in age distribution between agricultural

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86 Table 41 Age-Sex Specific Labour Force Participation Rates in Pakistan: 1961 All Areas Urban Areas Rural Areas Age Group Male | Female Male | Female Male | Female 10—14 38.34 4.73 18.32 1.25 45.49 6.04 15—19 72.33 7.60 57.51 2.44 78.09 9.42 20—24 87.94 9.59 81.28 3.98 91.13 11.56 25—44 94.02 11.05 91.63 5.10 94.90 12.81 45—54 94.27 11.76 91.20 6.69 95.23 13.09 55—59 90.97 10.23 81.03 5.35 93.84 11.44 60 and over 80.07 7.93 62.27 4.57 84.43 8.72

All ages 10 and 48.14 9.27 43.03 4.05 49.85 10.88 over

Source: [25, Appendix I—II] and non-agricultural labour force (Table 40). The reason for this correspondence is that the rural areas represent predominant proportion of agricultural labour force while urban areas consist primarily of non-agricultural labour force. The higher participation rates of agricultural labour force right from the youngest age group to the older ages are primarily due to the fact that agriculture in Pakistan is generally a family enterprise involving both the younger and older members of the family, since for this activity the usual preconditions of education, vocational training, age limit, etc., (required for many of the non-agricultural activities) are not essential. The involvement of most of the family members is particularly required in sowing and harvesting seasons due to the primitive cultivation still extensively used in this region of the world.

87 VI. POPULATION PROJECTIONS

(a) Age and Sex While a number of population projections have been made for Pakistan by various agencies during the fifties and the sixties, we shall be describing here the salient features of the projections prepared by the Technical Sub-committee [42] appointed by the Interdepartmental Working Group on Population Growth. These projections were prepared by taking the 1961 Census population as adjusted by the Planning Commission for seven percent underenumeration for their projections of 1964 and then reverse surviving it to arrive at a base population as of July 1, 1960. In order to establish the patterns of existing growth rates, the estimates of vital rates generated by the Population Growth Estimation (PGE) project for the period 1962-65 were used. In selecting appropriate levels of fertility and mortality for the base year, the available sets of fertility and mortality rates were examined, and a crude birth rate of 48 and a crude death rate of 19 were considered the closest estimates for the years 1960-65. For the purposes of making projections, the following assumptions were made about the likely trends in mortality and fertility: (i) from 1960-65 to 1985-1990, the crude death rate would decline from 19 to 12 per thousand, and (it) during the period 1965-70, the fertility rates would be sustained at the level of 1960-65, but from 1970 onward would decline linearly by about 26 percent up to 1985. The yearly average vital rates of projected population of Pakistan used in these projections are given in Tablé 42. The projected populations of Pakistan Table 42 Vital Rales of Projection Population

Vital Rate 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 Birth Rate 47.85 45.58 43.89 42.09 39.87 37.17 Death Rate 18.98 16.75 15.23 14.10 13.10 12 24 Rate of Growth 2.89 2.88 2.87 2.80 2.68 2.49

Source : [25 and 42] 88 for various years based on these assumptions are provided in Table 43 which shows that the population would double from the estimated total of 45.6 million in 1960 to an estimated 91.4 million in 1985. As stated earlier, the population of September 1972 as interpolated from these projections is very close to the 1972 Census total of 64.9 million. The age-sex pyramid of the 1972 population, estimated from these projections, is shown in Fig 3.

64+

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91 VH. ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL IMPLICATIONS AND POLICY

(a) Economic and Social Implications of Population Growth Population size, its rate of growth and age distribution have been identified as" basic factors which affect economic development. Although these factors are interdependent each one of them may be considered separately in analysing the effect of population growth on the growth of per capita income [14], A higher rate of population growth implies a higher level of needed investment to maintain or achieve a given per capita output. In Pakistan, where the supply of capital is limited, a higher rate of population growth requires a large proportion of investment just to maintain the existing facilities. In case of slower rate of population growth, the same amount of investment could lead to an increase in the amount of capital per worker, higher per capita output and a higher per capita income. The effect of age distribution on economic development is seen in terms of relative proportions of (i) persons who are dependents because of their age, either too young or too old to work, and (ii) the persons who are in the productive ages. In a population where the effect of migration is negligible, age distribution is primarily determined by the course of fertility experienced by the population. In r Pakistan, where levels of fertility have been persistently high, the age distribution of population is broad-based with highest proportion in the younger ages and decreasing proportions in higher ages. With a high proportion of persons under age 15 and lower proportion of persons in the productive ages of 15-64, the dependency ratio in Pakistan is very high. As a result of sustained high birth rate, coupled with a rapid decline in mortality since the turn of the century, the population of Pakistan has been growing in size with an accelerated rate of growth which has kept the age

92 distribution highly weighted towards the younger unproductive ages. In the light of the implications of the three demographic factors of population growth described earlier, it is clear that the high level of fertility is one common factor which is working to keep the level of living low in Pakistan. It is thus obvious that for a large population resulting from high fertility, the requirements in respect of consumption goods as well as educational, medical, housing and transport facilities, etc., would be much greater than for a relatively smaller size of population achieved through a lowering of fertility. We shall be presenting here a brief picture of the economic and social implications of a high and low fertility (with mortality remaining at the present level) for the GNP, savings and investment, consumption goods, housing, education, medical and transport facilities as provided in a paper by Qureshi [43]. Using only a few key indicators, Qureshi discusses these implications for the year 1980, on the basis of two separate assumptions: (i) the population countinues to grow at the present rate of growth (about 3 percent) and (ii) the rate of growth declines by one percentage point to about 2 percent.

Gross National Product {GNP)

Pakistan's GNP in 1972-73 was estimated at Rs. 60.5 billion at current prices,7 giving a per capita income of Rs. 960 (U.S. % 97 at current exchange rate). Under the assumptions of constant rate of growth the required GNP in 1980 at 1972- 73 prices to maintain the same per capita income would be Rs. 79 billion, which means that the GNP would have to be increased by Rs. 18.5 billion. Under the second assumption, however, the required GNP would be Rs. 71.2 billion which means that the needed increase in the GNP would be Rs. 7.8 billion less than that under the first assumption.

Savings and Investment Assuming an incremental capital-output ratio of 2.5, the investment requirements to obtain the needed increase in the GNP of Rs. 18.5 billion by 1980 under the first assumption would be Rs. 46.2 billion at 1972-73 prices. Under the second assumption of reduced rate of population growth the amount needed for

7 For 1973-74 the estimated GNP is Rs. 77.4 billion with per capita income ofRs. 1190 (U.S. $ 120.2).

93 investment would be Rs. 17.5 billion, or Rs. 28.7 billion less than required under the first assumption.

Availability of Wheat The total availability of wheat in Pakistan was estimated at 7.5 million tons in 1972. In order to maintain the same per capita availability, the wheat supply required for 1980 would be 9.8 million tons under the first assumption and 8.8 million tons under the second assumption. This means that in the case of reduced growth, wheat reqirement would be about one million tons less.

Availability of Cloth To maintain the same per capita availablity of cloth in 1980 as in 1972, cloth supplies will have to be increased from 775 million yards to 986 million yards under the firstassumptio n and to 912 million yards under the second. Thus the cotton cloth supplies under the assumption of reduced growth of population would be 74 million yards less than under the first assumption of growth.

Housing In order to maintain the housing accommodation in 1980 at the level existing in 1972, there would be a need of 14.4 million additional houses under the first assumption whereas under the second assumption the need would be reduced to 12.9 million additional houses giving a difference of 1.5 million in the additional houses required.

Primary Education The number of primary schools will have to be increased from 41,000 in 1972 to 54,000 in 1980 under the first assumption to maintain the same student-school ratio. Under the second assumption the requirement for the same level would be reduced to 49,000 schools.

Medical Facilities In order to maintain the 1972 ratio of hospital beds to total population, hospital beds will have to be increased from 31,000 in 1972 to 40,000 in 1980 under the constant growth assumption whereas with a reduced growth these would have to be increased to only 36,000.

94 Transportation To maintain the availability of motor vehicles in 1980 at the level of 1972, their number will have to be increased from an estimated 175,000 in 1972 to 229,000 under the first assumption of growth whereas under the second assumption the vehicles required in 1980 would number 206,000.

The above estimates of economic and social implications were prepared to indicate roughly the relative difference of requirements under two assumption of population growth rate in order to maintain the standard of living at the 1972 level. With a target of rising level of living the requirements would be much more than those indicated in these estimates.

(b) Population Policy as Element in Social and Economic Policy It is generally recognized that in order to achieve a high level of social and economic development in low income and over-populated countries, a reduction in fertility is most essential. The ultimate aim in reducing fertility is to bring down the rate of population growth without which economic development plans may be seriously frustrated, especially in countries where capital is scarce. Since population growth and socio-economic development are highly interrelated, a national population policy, integrated with the overall policies and programmes of social and economic development, is considered highly essential.

In Pakistan, the dangers of population growth outpacing growth in national income were officially recognized by the government nearly twenty years back when the First Five Year Plan was formulated for the period 1955-60 [21, 35]. It was recognized in that plan that ".. .considerations of the health and welfare of the family and ultimately of the society require that the size of the family should be limited through spacing of children...." The plan stressed the need for initia- ting family planning measures so that "evils of under-feeding and over-crowding may not undo the efforts for the provision of better life to the nation." Pointing to the need of lowering the rate of population growth, the Government of Pakistan made a lump sum provision of half a million rupees for family planning in the annual budget for 1957-58.

95 The Second Five Year Plan, covering the period 1960-65, recognised "the paramount need for a conscious population policy and its implementation" [36]. The policy, according to this plan, had to take into account many implications of population growth for other aspects of planning. The plan further stated that "the first stage in the strategic approach to population planning is that the problem should be clearly understood by the people themselves. Effective population policies cannot be limited to measures designed to reduce birth rates. They must aim at progressive increases in the length of life, continuing improvement of health and vitality and the attainment of family size that is consistent with the welfare and social and economic opportunities of its members. They must take into account the rela- tions of the population growth and characteristics on one hand and economic development, social change, labour force utilization, health and human welfare on the other." The plan, therefore, clearly suggested that if "any measure of prosperity is to be gained from the development effort, it is essential that family planning receive high priority."

In the Second Five Year Plan an amount of Rs. 30.5 million was provided for Family Planning Programme which was to be implemented through the existing Health Services for which purpose a National Family Planning Directorate was established at the centre along with Directorates at the provincial level [36]. In the areas which now constitute Pakistan, a National Research Institute of Family Planning (NRIFP) was set up at Karachi and two Training-cum-Research Institutes (TCRI) were set up at Lahore and Hyderabad.

The Third Five Year Plan covering the period 1965-70, mentioned clearly that decline in fertility was necessary if the increases of per capita income envisaged in the perspective plan were to be achieved. In view of the rapid decline in mortality, supplies of contraceptive devices and extension of family planning facilities were to be provided in order to contain the fertility rates [37]. In order to have any significant impact on economic conditions, the family planning programme had to aim at reducing the birth rate by 50 percent in the next 25 years, for which purpose the programme had to be implemented with "utmost vigour and single-mindedness...."

96 In the Third Plan, a revised family planning scheme was prepared with its scope much enlarged as compared to that contained in the Second Plan. This scheme was expected to cost Rs. 280 million when fully executed in both West Pakistan and East Pakistan (now Bangladesh).

For the execution of the programme in that plan period, the Pakistan Family Planning Council was constituted at the Centre as a semi-autonomous agency under ihe Ministry of Health, Labour and Social Welfare. Family Planning Boards were established at provincial levels, with headquarters at Lahore for West Pakistan and at Dacca for East Pakistan. Similarly, District Family Planning Boards were set up in every programme district by planned phases to implement the programme through District Publicity-cum-Executive Officer, Family Planning Officers, traditional midwives (Dais) and agents who were registered to sell conven- tional contraceptives. This programme was a major thrust directed towards a traditional society, which, by establishing operational contacts down to the village level, ensured dissemination of knowledge and increasing availability of facilities.

The Fourth Five Year Plan (1970-75) also stressed the need for reducing the growth of population since "every addition in GNP is partly swallowed by additions in population." The continuous higher level of population growth "dilutes the development effort in ihe country and contrib tes towards persistence of hunger, disease, misery." The family planning programme for this plan period, therefore, envisaged about double the expenditure during the Third Plan [38]. However, the events leading to the 1971 war and the later separation of East Pakistan to become Bangladesh seriously disrupted the operation of the Fourth Plan.

The family planning scheme for the Fourth Plan period was modified substantially and a new concept of "Continuous Motivation System" has been introd -ced. This programn e utilizes a man-woman team to designated project areas through a phased expansion to reach essentially all the population by the end of the Fourth Plan. Each field-worker team covers a population of 10,000 to 15,000 and these teams are supervised by Population Planning Officers.

In more sparsely settled areas of the country an approach similar to that under the Third Plan is being used. 97 The Fourth Plan scheme has recently been revised for the last two years of the programme and given substantially increased funding support to improve the operations of the Continuous Motivation System [40]. Particular emphasis is being given through increased training of personnel, increased communication through interpersonal contacts and mass communication;, and development of a systematic data feed back system for evaluation. The scheme also aims to compensate for the performance lag of past years and to extend the scope of the programme beyond the limited range of fertility control [38, 40]. Appendix—A

A BRIEF HISTORY OF CENSUS TAKING IN PAKISTAN

The history of systematic census taking in the su1-continent consisting of Pakistan, India and B ngladesh goes back to over a hundred years when the first attempt to obtain population data through actual counting of heads was made. The first census which was carried out in different parts of the subcontinent at different times over the years 1867-1872, in spite of its low quality, established a base for the first regular census which was conducted ;n 1881. Since then census taking every tc years remained a regular feature up to 1961. The latest census in Pakistan was carried out in September 1972 after an intercensal gap of 11 years and 8 months. A brief description of different censuses before and after the establishment of Pakistan as an independent country in 1947, primarily based on a review of the censuses (up to 1961) prepared by Bhatti and Hashmi [12], is provided below.

The first census extending over the period 1867-1872 covered all areas of the Punjab which at that time also included D.I. Khan, Bannu, Peshawar, Hazara and Kohat districts of the present N.W.F.P. In the province of Sind the districts of Hyderabad and Tharparkar along with some other areas were covered in the census. In 1881 the first regular census of the subcontinent was carried out in all the areas on the same date (Feb. 17), following uniform methods of data collection and tabulation. The next census, conducted on Feb. 26, 1891, was technically more sound with detailed instructions, refinement in definitions and expansion in enumeration schedule to include questions on race and parents' tongue. The 1901 Census, conducted on March 15, covered additional areas of the then Baluchistan Agency, excluding some difficult areas. In this census a "Slip System" was introduced to faci- litate tabulation through hand sorting. In the next census, conducted on March 10, 1911, the coverage was increased to include the entire Baluchistan area as well as agencies and tribal areas of the N.W.F.P. which were not covered earlier. The not-

99 able improvement in this census was the introduction of a separate schedule for collecting particulars of workers in factories and industries which employed 20 or more persons. The 1921 Census, conducted on March 18, followed the same proce- dures for comparability. In the next census, conducted on 26th February, 1931, the results were affected by the non-cooperation movement. Further, as a result of the Sarda Act which was passed in 1927 fixingth e minimum age at marriage at 18 for males and at. 14 for females, there was a decrease in the size of the enumerated married population and an over-statement of ages.

In all the censuses from 1881 to 1931 the enumeration was done at night. The Census of 1941, conducted on March 1, was, however, taken during the day-time. Other changes introduced in this census were the replacement of old schedule by direct entries on the enumeration slip and the use of sample of enumeration slips for tabulation. The results of this census were affected by over-reporting, for different communities tended to over-represent their numbers for political reasons. Thus the then-operative political factors affected the results of both the 1931 and 1941 Censuses, resulting in underenumeration in the former and over-reporting in the latter.

The first census of independent Pakistan was conducted in 1951 on de jure basis for which the enumeration was carried out from the 9th to the 28th February. In this census, more detailed information on language, literacy, education and economic activities was obtained. In addition, information on the place of origin of the post-partition Muslim migrants from India was also sought. The second census in Pakistan was taken during January 12-31 in 1961, again on de jure basis. This was considered to be a better planned census with its organisational set-up superior to that of the 1951 Census. In this census, even more detailed information was obtained on education and labour force. This census was followed by a post-enumeration survey to check the quality of the data collected through the census.

The third census in Pakistan, which was conducted from the 16th to the 30th September, 1972, was, in many ways, different from the previous censuses [34]. The operation of this census was divided into three phases covering (i) the house-

100 hod listing, (ii) the big count, and (iii) the Housing, Economic and Demographic (HED) Survey. Unlike the 1961 Census in which twenty-two questions were asked, the 1972 big count collected data on (i) relationship of respondent to the head of the household, (ii) sex, (iii) age, (IV) marital status, (v) religion, and (vi) literacy. The HED Survey, carried out on sampling basis, collected detailed data on housing conditions, educational status, labour force, fertility, migration, etc., from 300,000 households. The 1972 Census was also followed by a Census Evaluation Survey (CES) which was conducted by an independent body.

101 Appendix—B

A BRIEF HISTORY OF VITAL REGISTRATION IN PAKISTAN

The history of vital registration system in the areas which now constitute Pakistan goes back to more than a hundred years. Presented below is a summary of the history of the system as traced in a well-documented paper by Khan and Ahmad [28].

The available evidence shows that the registration of deaths in the Punjab was started in accordance with the orders issued by the Inspector General of Police under Section 12 of the Police Act, 1861 (Act V of 1861). The statistics of deaths were, however, for the first time included in the Annual Reports of Inspector General of Dispensaries, Punjab for the year 1865, and in the Annual Health Report of the province for 1867. By 1869, considerable progress was made towards placing the registration of both the births and deaths on a legal footing for which, by-laws were framed under Section 11 of Act XV of 1867. These by-laws were first adopted by all the towns of the province. Under these by-laws the head of the household was made responsible for reporting the events of ' births and deaths to the municipal registry office.

The statistics on births in the Punjab appeared for the first time in the Annual Report of the Sanitary Commissioner for the year 1870. The birth registration m the rural areas started in 1880 for which Chowkidara Rules were notified in 1876 under the Punjab Laws Act, 1872. These rules included the duties of the village head-man and the village watchman towards reporting the events of births and deaths in the rural areas. For this purpose, the village chowkidar was provided two books, one for births and another for deaths in which entries could be made by any resident of the village.

Í02 Since the present area of the N.W.F.P. was a part of the Punjab before 1901, the rules applicable to the settled areas of the N.W.F.P. were the same as in the Punjab. The registration of births and deaths in the municipal towns in the Pun- jab and the N.W.F.P. continued to be carried out under various Municipal Acts and in the rural areas under the Police Rules and the. Chowkidara Rules till the enforcement of the Basic Democracy Order, 1959.

For the province of Sind, the average mortality figures for the years 1866 through 1884 were mentioned in the Report of the Sanitary Commissioner with the then Government of British India for the year 1884. The birth registration in Sind probably started in 1871. In this province, the registration of births and deaths in urban areas was carried out under Municipal Act and in the rural areas the registration was done by the revenue officials. The lowest revenue official, called the Tapedar, had to maintain the records of births and deaths in Village Form XIV for all the villages under him. In Sanitary Committee Villages and in some other large villages, sub-registers of births and deaths were entrusted to Pond Munshis and school teachers. However, the entries in these sub-registers were also made in the register of the Tapedar.

In Baluchistan, the registration of births and deaths has remained confined to Quetta City and Quetta Cantonment. The registration in Quetta City was carried out under the Quetta Municipal Law, 1964, and in Quetta Cantonment according to the by-laws framed under the Cantonment Act, 1924.

Since 1959 the registration of births and deaths in the rural areas has been carried out under the Basic Democracies Order, 1959, while in the urban areas it has been done under the Municipal Administration Ordinance, 1960.

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J08 REFERENCES

(In the references cited below, PIDE stands for Pakistan Institute of Development Economics).

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