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Vanguard New Jersey Long-Term Tax-Exempt Fund Annual Report

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Vanguard New Jersey Long-Term Tax-Exempt Fund Annual Report Annual Report | November 30, 2020 Vanguard New Jersey Long-Term Tax-Exempt Fund Contents Your Fund’s Performance at a Glance ................ 1 Advisor’s Report ..................................... 2 About Your Fund’s Expenses......................... 6 Performance Summary .............................. 8 Financial Statements ................................10 Please note: The opinions expressed in this report are just that—informed opinions. They should not be considered promises or advice. Also, please keep in mind that the information and opinions cover the period through the date on the front of this report. Of course, the risks of investing in your fund are spelled out in the prospectus. Your Fund’s Performance at a Glance • For the 12 months ended November 30, 2020, Vanguard New Jersey Long-Term Tax-Exempt Fund returned 5.07% for Investor Shares and 5.16% for Admiral Shares. These results exceeded those of the fund’s benchmark, the Bloomberg Barclays NJ Municipal Bond Index, which returned 4.65%. • As the coronavirus began to spread, many governments moved to shutter nonessential businesses and institute lockdowns, leading to a swift and sharp drop in global economic activity. Central banks responded by slashing interest rates and enacting stimulus programs to blunt the virus’s economic impact. By the end of the period, bond yields were lower and prices were higher. • Compared with its benchmark index, the fund is more diversified and tilted more toward higher-quality investment-grade bonds. This difference bolstered relative results for the period, as lower-quality municipal bonds underperformed. Specifically, the fund’s underweighting of three top BBB-rated issuers that together account for nearly two-thirds of the benchmark helped returns. The fund’s average duration (a measure of the price sensitivity of the fund’s holdings to movements in interest rates) was longer than that of its benchmark, which also added to returns. • For the decade ended November 30, 2020, the fund produced an average return of 4.85% for Investor Shares and 4.93% for Admiral Shares, compared with the 4.79% return of its expense-free benchmark. Market Barometer Average Annual Total Returns Periods Ended November 30, 2020 One Year Three Years Five Years Stocks Russell 1000 Index (Large-caps) 19.41% 13.66% 14.23% Russell 2000 Index (Small-caps) 13.59 7.09 10.25 Russell 3000 Index (Broad U.S. market) 19.02 13.20 13.95 FTSE All-World ex US Index (International) 10.01 4.12 7.62 Bonds Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index (Broad taxable market) 7.28% 5.45% 4.34% Bloomberg Barclays Municipal Bond Index (Broad tax-exempt market) 4.89 4.80 3.93 FTSE Three-Month U.S. Treasury Bill Index 0.72 1.59 1.16 CPI Consumer Price Index 1.17% 1.80% 1.86% 1 Advisor’s Report For the 12 months ended November 30, the fiscal year, the fund did not own such 2020, Vanguard New Jersey Long-Term securities. Tax-Exempt Fund returned 5.07% for Investor Shares and 5.16% for Admiral The investment environment Shares. These results exceeded those of The period was defined by the outbreak of the fund’s benchmark, the Bloomberg the novel coronavirus in early 2020––and Barclays NJ Municipal Bond Index, which the aggressive efforts to contain it––which returned 4.65%. upended economies and financial markets worldwide. As the pandemic spread, With municipal bond prices rising, yields crude oil prices sank, trade and travel declined. The 30-day SEC yield fell 22 restrictions multiplied, nonessential basis points to 1.93% for Admiral Shares. businesses were shuttered, and (A basis point is one-hundredth of a unemployment spiked. percentage point.) The 30-day SEC yield is a proxy for a fund’s potential annualized Governments and central banks around rate of income. the world took emergency action in the form of fiscal and monetary stimulus to Please note that the fund is permitted to blunt the impact of the pandemic on invest in securities that would generate economic activity, jobs, and the income distributions subject to the functioning of the credit markets. In the alternative minimum tax (AMT). During United States, Congress passed a number Yields of Municipal Securities (National Averages, AAA-Rated General Obligation Issues) November 30, November 30, Maturity 2019 2020 2 years 1.10% 0.15% 5 years 1.17 0.23 10 years 1.50 0.71 30 years 2.13 1.49 Source: Vanguard. 2 of bills providing aid to state and local much of it came from significant governments, companies, and workers. borrowing. The U.S. Federal Reserve cut the federal funds target range to near zero and began Future budgets should include new buying hundreds of billions of dollars in sustainable sources of revenue and/or government bonds, mortgage-backed expenditure cuts to offset continued securities, and corporate bonds. growth in long-term liabilities such as pensions. The state funded its pension In March, at the height of investor actuarially determined contribution (ADC) pessimism, the bond market saw volatility at approximately 70% during fiscal 2020. spike and liquidity erode. Yields It has budgeted to fund the ADC at nevertheless ended the period approximately 80% in fiscal 2021, with a lower—and prices higher—as investors goal of 100% funding by fiscal 2023. sought out safer assets. New Jersey experienced two credit New Jersey extended its fiscal year to downgrades during the period. In April, September 30, 2020, because of revenue Fitch Ratings downgraded the state to A– challenges related to the pandemic, from A (making it in line with Moody’s and including the extension of tax deadlines. Standard & Poor’s ratings at the time) and The budget was balanced through revised its outlook to negative because of appropriation reductions of $950 million the expected financial and economic and better-than-expected fiscal 2020 impact from the pandemic. Also during revenues. Reserves were untapped, April, Moody’s and S&P revised their resulting in an ending fund balance of outlooks to negative from stable. $1.7 billion (4.3% of the overall budget), similar to fiscal 2019. In November, in conjunction with New Jersey’s issuance of $3.7 billion in deficit The fiscal 2021 budget adopted by the financing, S&P downgraded the state to extended deadline was balanced using BBB+ from A–, reflecting their view that COVID-19 emergency general obligation pandemic-induced revenue losses will deficit-financing bonds, new sources of perpetuate the state’s significant revenue, and $1.2 billion in expenditure structural deficit. S&P then revised its cuts. Revenues include a tax of 10.75% outlook to stable at the BBB+ level. on income above $1 million; a multiyear Moody’s, which has rated New Jersey at extension of the 2.5% corporate A3 since March 2017, and Fitch maintain surcharge, which had been scheduled to negative outlooks, reflecting near-term drop to 1.5% in 2020 and to zero in 2021; uncertainties including the COVID-19 and an increase in HMO assessment to public health crisis and the strength of the 5% from 3%. The general fund was economic recovery. forecast to end with a balance of $2.5 billion, or 6.2% of appropriations—its Although the state has a diverse economy largest balance in over a decade, though in the Northeast Corridor and high wealth 3 and education levels, the cost of living and We obviously didn't see the coronavirus doing business is very high. New Jersey pandemic coming, but our more defensive has one of the highest property taxes in positioning helped mitigate the impact of the nation and a large foreclosure the market sell-off in March and April. That inventory. Migration out of the state, positioning then allowed us to take on combined with the effects of the state more credit risk at much more attractive and local tax-deduction cap implemented valuations, especially in areas where the as part of the 2017 federal tax legislation, repricing seemed overdone. That wasn't could limit future economic performance the case for some asset managers who and revenue growth. However, the were carrying more risk ahead of the pandemic also has led to movement to pandemic, chasing a few extra basis the suburbs from New York City, with points of potential return despite elevated many areas citing significant increases in valuations. property values. New Jersey AA-rated municipal bonds The state typically issues debt between returned 6.64% for the period, according September and January following the to Bloomberg Barclays NJ Municipal finalization of the annual budget and Index. Their A-rated counterparts returned before the budget process for the 5.17% and BBB-rated New Jersey munis, upcoming fiscal year. In 2020, New Jersey on the lowest rung of the issued $6.0 billion of new debt to fund investment-grade credit-quality ladder, transportation and education projects as returned 7.02%. well as deficit financing. Outlook In November, the state issued $4 billion of Increases in COVID-19 infections could COVID-19 general-obligation emergency lead to the reintroduction of broad bonds to offset lost revenues stemming lockdowns that would further hurt from pandemic-related closures and economies, and the distribution of reduced capacity. In addition, the state vaccines may take longer than hoped for. issued $1.5 billion of Transportation Trust These risks are somewhat mitigated, Fund debt for capital projects. These deals however, as governments are now better were extremely well-received by prepared to deal with outbreaks. investors. Vanguard participated in all bond Moreover, central banks have asserted issues during 2020. their readiness to continue to support bond markets. Management of the fund Our disciplined approach to credit risk paid We continue to view munis as attractive off in this challenging environment.
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