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The Whillans Report Auckland Market Update 4Th Quarter 2020

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The Whillans Report Auckland Market Update 4Th Quarter 2020 THE WHILLANS REPORT AUCKLAND MARKET UPDATE 4TH QUARTER 2020 Investment properties drive more than $250 million in sales Welcome to our final report for 2020. Developers have also re-emerged, capitalising influence Auckland’s investment and on the booming residential market. development market. Our team had an outstanding third quarter, with over $250 million in sales . The bulk of our The turnaround we’ve witnessed since March We trust you find this report valuable and activity was in investment sales, reflecting a has been exceptional to observe and be part of. we look forward to doing business with you strong demand for income-earning property. in 2021. Our notable sales for this quarter include: An exceptional market turnaround Wishing you a very Happy Christmas and a 34 Shortland Street — Bruce Whillans prosperous New Year. Over the 36 years I’ve worked in commercial real estate, I’ve never experienced such a Farmers Queen Street — Henry Thompson dynamic market. In March, buyers were 152 Fanshawe Street — Bruce Whillans unsure of how the market was going to react to the global COVID-19 pandemic, so they took 5 Short Street — Henry Thompson Bruce Whillans time out. But, remarkably, this hiatus was only Managing Director Current and future market forces short-lived. T +64 (09) 304 1453 The ensuing regime of low interest rates In this edition of the Whillans Report, M +64 (21) 985 619 bruce.whillans reignited the investment market, with buyers senior analyst Brendan Keenan reviews @whillans.co.nz actively chasing income-producing property. the current and future forces that will SOLD SOLD SOLD 152 Fanshawe Street, Auckland CBD 210A Queen Street, Auckland CBD 34 Shortland Street, Auckland CBD $36,250,000 $48,000,000 $67,500,000 SOLD SOLD SOLD 3 Ferncroft Street, Grafton 6 Osterley Way, Manukau CBD 5 Short Street, Newmarket $19,400,000 $11,260,000 $21,000,000 Market 2020 third quarter update Auckland CBD Office Market Summary* CBD Office — The CBD office market has vacancy and the increased availability of space PRIME SECONDARY PREV 6MTH TREND to sub-lease, landlords are having to offer remained remarkably resilient in the face of a Vacancy 4.3% 11.2% Increasing global pandemic. Both prime and secondary tenants more incentives to remain competitive. vacancy rates remain below their 10 year This is eroding net effective rental growth, Effective Rent $396 $233 Decreasing average. This is providing a buffer against particularily in the secondary market. Yield 5.69% 7% Firming significant swings in values and rental rates. Indicative of a changing market and a flight Incentives* 12.1 mths 11.2 mths Increasing However, with some occupiers shrinking their to quality, the yields between prime and * Based on an indicative new 9-year prime office footprint, there is a growing of pool of secondary assets have widened as investors and and 6 year secondary lease office space to sub-lease. Faced with rising funders chase lower risk investments. Whillans Realty Group Limited (REAA 2008) I Level 3, The Annex, 41 Shortland Street, Auckland, New Zealand I +64 09 304 1453 I www.whillans.co.nz © 1 THE WHILLANS REPORT AUCKLAND MARKET UPDATE 4TH QUARTER 2020 Market 2020 third quarter update Auckland Industrial Market Summary Auckland Industrial — Auckland’s holding their ground at 1.4%. Investors PRIME SECONDARY PREV 6MTH TREND industrial market has outperformed the wider are having to compete for a limited pool of Vacancy 1.2% 1.5% Flat commercial property sector. industrial stock, sending yields to fresh lows, with prime yields dipping below 5%. Effective Rent $140.9 $111.8 Decreasing Globally, the pandemic has crystallised the Yield 4.97% 6.02% Firming importance of warehousing, cool stores and To meet this growing demand, investors and logistics and the role they play in national occupiers are scrambling to secure industrial Land Value $1,300 $600 Increasing security and the economy. It has also turbo land. In the six months to September, charged the shift to online-shopping. In industrial land values increased 21%, reaching New Zealand, online shopping levels remain $853/m2. And in the 12 months to September, elevated, up 22% on last year. Across Auckland, land values increased by an incredible 34%. industrial vacancy rates have barely budged, Auckland CBD Retail Market Summary CBD Retail — The pandemic has had the Despite these headwinds, the pandemic is AVERAGE HIGH LOW PREV 6MTH TREND most impact on Auckland’s prime CBD retail creating an opportunity for some landlords to Rent $3,842 $4,800 $1,900 Decreasing market. Queen Street foot traffic is down by amalgamate sites and deliver larger premises approximately 35%. for new flagship stores. Yield 5.08% 4.75% 5.75% Softening Across the board, rents on Queen Street have For investors, the downturn provides the decreased by 2.1%. Inferior premises have opportunity to buy into the market at a low Source: Statistical data in this market update has been fallen by as much as 11.6%. Prime CBD yields point, while the pandemic, the City Rail Link summarised from CBRE research and is intended for general guidance only. No responsibility is accepted on Queen Street have softened 4 basis points in and roadworks temporarily reduce pedestrian by CBRE or Whillans Realty Group Limited for any the six months to September. numbers. omissions or errors contained within this report. Moving forward from 2020 — our expectations for 2021 In this edition of the Whillans Report, And it’s this capital that’s finding its way into Demand for land on the rise we review the market forces influencing commercial real estate. Investors, first-home buyers, and owner- Auckland’s development and investment The shift in interest rates is providing crucial occupiers are now competing for a limited market. We also look at what will drive the support for the commercial property sector amount of existing stock. market in the year ahead. and it is also beginning to re-price the market. We’re seeing strong demand for new-build The financial impact of the COVID-19 Could these low rates signal the start of a new housing, particularly housing located near pandemic led to a dramatic fall in global property cycle in 2021? amenities and major transportation nodes. interest rates earlier this year, which has in Auckland’s land market defies This demand is spilling over into the price turn impacted asset classes worldwide. While expectations developers can pay for land that’s zoned for this has lowered borrowing costs it has also low-rise apartments, terraced homes, and reset the risk-free rate of return — investors Just six months ago, New Zealand’s major semi-detached and detached housing. chasing yield have had to move capital higher trading banks were forecasting that house up the risk ladder to achieve returns. prices would fall between 10% and 15%. Some Demand for sites zoned Terrace Housing commentators predicted an even more severe and Apartment Buildings, Mixed Housing Penalised for Holding Cash correction. Suburban, and Mixed Housing is approaching 6-Month Term Deposit Rate (RBNZ) levels that have not been seen since 2016. Instead, median prices have touched new highs 9% in Auckland, gaining 16.3% in the 12 months CBD land market in limbo 8% to October 2020. Propelled by a significant Not all residential land has been buoyed by 7% drop in interest rates, borrowers are enjoying a Auckland’s resurgent housing market. The 6% 21% reduction on their pre-pandemic mortgage CBD apartment and hotel markets have 5% expenses. been hit hard by a reduction in overseas 4% Unlike past recessions, the Reserve Bank of student numbers and the complete lack of 3% New Zealand is focussed more than ever on international tourists. Both these groups Interest Rate Rate Interest 2% supporting employment and maintaining underpin the market for development land 1% social and financial stability. in the CBD. Sales evidence post-lockdown is patchy. However, we’ve seen a handful of land 0% For now, it would appear that asset inflation 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 sales in the CBD trading between 5% and 15% and rising house prices are risks worth taking. 6-Month Term Deposit lower than their pre-pandemic levels. Whillans Realty Group Limited (REAA 2008) I Level 3, The Annex, 41 Shortland Street, Auckland, New Zealand I +64 09 304 1453 I www.whillans.co.nz © 2 THE WHILLANS REPORT AUCKLAND MARKET UPDATE 4TH QUARTER 2020 Moving forward from 2020 — our expectations for 2021 Interestingly, the top-end of the city’s ignites the fiscal and monetary fuel unleased Flight to Quality apartment market has fared better, by the world’s central banks. Prime vs Secondary Office Yields (CBRE) underpinned by downsizers and reports The market for office premises not going of wealthy expats returning to live in New 8.5% away Zealand. 8.0% Locally, many industry observers have Auckland’s land market is looking remarkably 7.5% lamented the end of the shopping mall and resilient. Unemployment levels are better office tower. However, to date many alarmist 7.0% than expected and the cash rate is heading to scenarios have failed to materialise. Attitudes 6.5% zero, and possibly negative, by the middle of to flexible offsite/at-home working have Office Yield next year. At some point, will the reality of an 6.0% changed dramatically over the last nine economic recession take hold and confidence months, although online communication 5.5% wane? platforms like Zoom do have their limitations. 5.0% Renewed optimism ahead 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Companies will continue to need physical If border restrictions ease by the end of 2021 premises where new employees can be trained Prime Secondary and a vaccine is developed and effectively and integrated, ideas and wisdom shared, distributed, could low interest rates become and culture curated.
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