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TEN-STAC: SCENARIOS, TRAFFIC FORECASTS and ANALYSIS of CORRIDORS on the TRANS-EUROPEAN NETWORK ______D6 Deliverable Part II

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TEN-STAC: SCENARIOS, TRAFFIC FORECASTS and ANALYSIS of CORRIDORS on the TRANS-EUROPEAN NETWORK ______D6 Deliverable Part II TEN-STAC: SCENARIOS, TRAFFIC FORECASTS AND ANALYSIS OF CORRIDORS ON THE TRANS-EUROPEAN NETWORK _________________ D6 Deliverable Part II TRAFFIC, BOTTLENECKS AND ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS ON 25 CORRIDORS CONTRACT N° : ETU/B5-7000A-SI2.346797 PROJECT N° : 14159000/R20040194 ACRONYM : TEN-STAC TITLE : Scenarios, Traffic Forecasts and Analysis of Corridors on the Trans-European network PROJECT CO-ORDINATOR : NEA Transport research and training BV PARTNERS : - COWI - IWW - NESTEAR - PWC - TINA - IVT - HERRY - MKmetric PROJECT START DATE : 01-01-2003 DURATION : 15 Months Date of issue of this report : September-2004 Project funded by the European Community TEN-STAC Scenarios, Traffic Forecasts and Analysis of Corridors on the Trans-European Transport Network D6 Traffic, bottlenecks and environmental analysis on 25 corridors Partners NEA Transport research and training, project co-ordinator (The Netherlands), Professor Marc Gaudry at the University of Montreal (Canada) and University of Strasbourg (France) COWI, A/S (Denmark) PWC, PriceWaterhouseCoopers (Italy) TINA, Transport Infrastructure Needs Assessment (Austria) IWW, Institut für Wirtschaftspolitik und Wirtschaftsforschung (Germany) NESTEAR, Nouveau Espaces de Transport en Europe Applications de Recherche (France) Mkmetric, Gesellschaft für Systemplanung mbH (Germany) HERRY, Traffic Planning/Consulting (Austria) IVT, Institut für angewandte Verkehrs- und Tourismusforschung e.V. (Germany) CETE, Centre d'Etudes Techniques de l'Equipement (France) University of Tours (France) Professor Jan Burnewicz at the University of Gdansk (Poland) Professor Andrès Lopez Pita, Director of CENIT, Centre d'Innovació del Transport (Spain) Experts from all CEEC countries R20040194.doc September 2004 3 TEN-STAC Scenarios, Traffic Forecasts and Analysis of Corridors on the Trans-European Transport Network D6 Traffic, bottlenecks and environmental analysis on 25 corridors 5 GLOBAL ASSESSMENT ALL PROJECTS SCENARIO ...................9 5.1 Traffic flows of all projects scenario ................................................................9 5.2 Interpretation of the results of the all projects scenario................................ 18 5.3 Impact of implementation of the priority projects on the traffic flows in high sensitive areas: the Alps .............................................................................. 20 6 ASSESSMENT OF THE GLOBAL IMPACT OF THE PRIORITY PROJECTS.......................................................................................25 6.1 Introduction .................................................................................................. 25 6.2 P01 RAILWAY LINE BERLIN-VERONA/MILANO-BOLOGNA-NAPOLI- MESSINA ..................................................................................................... 27 6.2.1 Description of the priority project.................................................................27 6.2.2 Impact on the level of traffic flows ...............................................................29 6.2.3 Estimated aggregated impacts of the priority project....................................34 6.3 P02 HIGH-SPEED RAILWAY LINE PARIS-BRUXELLES/BRUSSEL-KÖLN AMSTERDAM-LONDON.............................................................................. 39 6.3.1 Description of the priority project.................................................................39 6.3.2 Impact on the level of traffic flows ...............................................................40 6.3.3 Estimated aggregated impacts of the priority project....................................41 6.4 P03 HIGH-SPEED RAILWAYLINES OF SOUTH-WEST EUROPE ............ 45 6.4.1 Description of the priority project.................................................................45 6.4.2 Impact on the level of traffic flows ...............................................................48 6.4.3 Estimated aggregated impacts of the priority project....................................51 6.5 P06 RAILWAY LINE LYON-TRIESTE/KOPER-LJUBLJANA-BUDAPEST- UKRANIAN BORDER .................................................................................. 59 6.5.1 Description of the priority project.................................................................59 6.5.2 Impact on the level of traffic flows ...............................................................62 6.5.3 Estimated aggregated impacts of the priority project....................................65 6.6 P07 MOTORWAY ROUTE IGOUMENITSA/PATRA-ATHINA-SOFIA- BUDAPEST .................................................................................................. 69 6.6.1 Description of the priority project.................................................................69 6.6.2 Impact on the level of traffic flows ...............................................................70 6.6.3 Estimated aggregated impacts of the priority project....................................75 6.7 P08 MULTIMODAL LINK PORTUGAL/SPAIN-REST OF EUROPE ........... 79 6.7.1 Description of the priority project.................................................................79 6.7.2 Impact on the level of traffic flows ...............................................................80 6.7.3 Estimated aggregated impacts of the priority project....................................93 6.9 P12 NORDIC TRIANGLE RAILWAY LINE .................................................. 97 6.9.1 Description of the priority project.................................................................97 6.9.2 Impact on the level of traffic flows .............................................................100 6.9.3 Estimated aggregated impacts of the priority project..................................105 6.10 P13 UK/IRELAND/BENELUX ROAD LINK ................................................ 109 6.10.1 Description of the priority project...............................................................109 6.10.2 Impact on the level of traffic flows .............................................................109 6.10.3 Estimated aggregated impacts of the priority project..................................114 6.11 P16 FREIGHT RAILWAY LINE SINES-MADRID-PARIS........................... 117 6.11.1 Description of the priority project...............................................................117 6.11.2 Impact on the level of traffic flows .............................................................118 6.11.3 Estimated aggregated impacts of the priority project..................................121 R20040194.doc September 2004 5 TEN-STAC Scenarios, Traffic Forecasts and Analysis of Corridors on the Trans-European Transport Network D6 Traffic, bottlenecks and environmental analysis on 25 corridors 6.12 P17 RAILWAY LINE (PARIS)-STRASBOURG-STUTTGART-WIEN- BRATISLAVA.............................................................................................. 125 6.12.1 Description of the priority project .............................................................. 125 6.12.2 Impact on the level of the traffic flows....................................................... 127 6.12.3 Estimated aggregated impacts of the priority project................................. 129 6.13 P18 RHINE/MEUSE-MAIN-DANUBE INLAND WATERWAY ROUTE....... 135 6.13.1 Description of the priority project .............................................................. 135 6.13.2 Impact on the level of traffic flows ............................................................ 139 6.13.3 Estimated aggregated impacts of the priority project................................. 140 6.15 P19 HIGH-SPEED RAIL INTEROPERABILITY ON THE IBERIAN PENINSULA ............................................................................................... 145 6.15.1 Description of the priority project .............................................................. 145 6.15.2 Impact on the level of traffic flows ............................................................ 146 6.15.3 Estimated aggregated impacts of the priority project................................. 147 6.16 P20 FEHMARN BELT RAILWAY LINE ...................................................... 151 6.16.1 Description of the priority project .............................................................. 151 6.16.2 Impact on the level of traffic flows ............................................................ 153 6.16.3 Estimated aggregated impacts of the priority project................................. 158 6.17 P21 MOTORWAYS OF THE SEA.............................................................. 163 6.17.1 Description of the priority project .............................................................. 163 6.17.2 Overview of the generalised transport costs of alternative modes on the routes of the selected sea motorways ......................................................... 165 6.17.3 Estimated aggregated impacts of the priority project................................. 181 6.18 P22 RAILWAY LINE ATHENIA-SOFIA-BUDAPEST-WIEN-PRAHA- NÜRNBERG/DRESDEN............................................................................. 185 6.18.1 Description of the priority project .............................................................. 185 6.18.2 Impact on the level of traffic flows ............................................................ 187 6.18.3 Estimated aggregated impacts of the priority project................................. 192 6.19 P23 RAILWAY LINE GDANSK WARSZAWA-BRNO/BRATISLAVA-WIEN195 6.19.1 Description of the priority project .............................................................
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