3 Arleigh Burke Class Destroyers
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Operational Profiling and Statistical Analysis of Arleigh Burke-Class Destroyers by Travis J. Anderson M.S.E., Engineering Management The Catholic University of America, 2010 B.S., Computer Science United States Naval Academy, 2003 Submitted to the Department of Mechanical Engineering in Partial Fulfillment for the Degrees of ARcHNES Naval Engineer MA INSTrTUTE and SSAHUSFTTS Master of Science in Mechanical Engineering cooOG at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology SA RIES June 2013 @ Travis J. Anderson. All rights reserved. The author hereby grants to MIT permission to reproduce and to distribute publicly paper and electronic copies of this thesis document in whole or in part in any medium now known or hereafter created. Signature of Author: Department of Mechanical Engineering May 10, 2013 01/ Certified By: / Franz Hover Finmeccanica Associate Professor Thesis Supervisor Jr Accepted By: David E. Hardt Ralph E. and Eloise F. Cross Professor of Mechanical Engineering Chair, Department Committee on Graduate Students [This page intentionally left blank] 2 Operational Profiling and Statistical Analysis of Arleigh Burke-Class Destroyers by Travis J.Anderson Submitted to the Department of Mechanical Engineering on May 10, 2013 in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for Degrees of Naval Engineer and Master of Science in Mechanical Engineering ABSTRACT Ship operational profiles are a valuable tool for ship designers and engineers when analyzing potential designs and ship system selections. The most common is the speed-time profile, normally depicted as a histogram showing the percent of time spent at each speed. Many shortcomings exist in the current Arleigh Burke (DDG 51)-class operational profiles. The current speed-time profile is out of date, based on another ship class, and does not depict the profile in one-knot increments. Additional profile data, such as how the engineering plant is operated and a mission profile, do not exist. A thorough analysis of recent DDG 51 operations was conducted and new and improved profiles were developed. These profiles indicate the ships tend to operate at slower speeds than was previously predicted with 46% of the time spent at 8 knots and below as compared to the previous profile with 28% for the same speeds. Additionally, profiles were developed to show the amount of time spent in each engineering plant line-up (69% trail shaft, 24% split plant, 7% full power) and the time spent in different mission types (69% operations, 27% transit, 4% restricted maneuvering doctrine). A detailed statistical analysis was then conducted to better understand the data used in profile development and to create a region of likely speed-time profiles rather than just a point solution that is presented in the composite speed-time profile. This was accomplished through studying the underlying distributions of the data as well as the variance. Thesis Supervisor: Franz Hover Title: Finmeccanica Associate Professor 3 [This page intentionally left blank] 4 Table of Contents A BS T R AC T ..................................................................................................................................................... 3 List o f F ig u re s .............................................................................................................................................. 6 List o f T a b le s ................................................................................................................................................ 6 Acknowledgments..................................................................................................................................... 8 1 In tro d u ctio n .......................................................................................................................................... 9 1 .1 Su ccess Criteria ........................................................................................................................ 1 1 1 .2 T h esis Ou tlin e ........................................................................................................................... 1 2 2 Background and Related W ork ............................................................................................. 13 2 .1 Mo tiv atio n .................................................................................................................................. 1 3 2.2 State of the Current Practice.......................................................................................... 13 2.3 State of the Art ......................................................................................................................... 14 3 Arleigh Burke Class Destroyers .......................................................................................... 16 3.1 The Arleigh Burke Class................................................................................................... 16 3.2 Ship Characteristics and Engineering Plant ............................................................ 17 4 Data Collection and Processing........................................................................................... 20 4.1 The Collection Process...................................................................................................... 20 4.2 Data Processing....................................................................................................................... 22 5 The Operational Profiles .............................................................................................................. 23 5.1 The Speed-Time Profile................................................................................................... 23 5.2 The Engineering Plant Mode-Time Profile ............................................................ 24 5.3 The Mission-Time Profile ................................................................................................ 25 6 Profile Validation Through Fuel Use Modeling ............................................................ 28 7 A Statistical Description of the Data................................................................................... 31 7 .1 T h e A n aly ses ............................................................................................................................. 3 1 7.2 A Region of Likely Composite Speed-Time Profiles............................................ 31 7.2.1 Composite Profile with One Standard Deviation Bands........................... 32 7.2.2 Principal Component Analysis............................................................................. 33 7.2.3 The Composite Profile Range............................................................................... 38 7.3 The Individual Profiles ..................................................................................................... 39 7.3.1 Kruskal-W allis and Multiple Comparison Tests ........................................... 41 7.3.2 Chi-Square Test............................................................................................................... 43 7.3.3 The Kolmogorov-Smirnov Test.......................................................................... 45 7.3.4 Summary of Individual Profile Tests ................................................................. 46 8 Applications and Effects of the New Speed-Time Profile................. 49 8.1 Stern End Bulbs and Stern Flaps.................................................................................. 49 8.2 M ethod of Calculating Fuel Usage................................................................................ 52 8.3 Fuel Estimation Results................................................................................................... 53 8.4 Effects of the Speed-Time Profile Range on Results ............................................ 55 5 9 Conclusions and Future w ork.............................................................................................. 58 References.....................................................60 Appendix A: Analysis of Ship Profiles and the One Standard Deviation Band ........ 63 List of Figures Figure 1: DDG 51 Class Speed-Tim e Profile............................................................................. 9 Figure 2: Relationship Between A Programs Expended Life-Cycle Cost and Locked-In Co st ...................................................................................................................................................... 1 0 Figure 3: The USS Preble Flight IIA DDG................................................................................... 16 Figure 4: Map of DDG Homeports and Number of Ships Assigned...............................17 Figure 5: Simplified Propulsion System Arrangement Diagram ................................... 19 Figure 6: The Data Storage M atrix.............................................................................................. 22 Figure 7: Composite DDG 51-Class Speed-Time Profile.................................................... 23 Figure 8: Engineering Plant Mode-Time Operating Profile .............................................. 25 Figure 9: Mission Type-Tim e Operating Profile .................................................................... 27 Figure 10: Speed-Time Profile with One Standard Deviation Bands........................... 32 Figure 12: Bar Chart of First Six Principal Components and Principal Component Profiles Compared to the Composite Speed-Time Profile