Naval War College Review Volume 73 Number 1 Winter 2020 Article 1 2020 Winter 2020 Full Issue The U.S. Naval War College Follow this and additional works at: https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/nwc-review Recommended Citation Naval War College, The U.S. (2020) "Winter 2020 Full Issue," Naval War College Review: Vol. 73 : No. 1 , Article 1. Available at: https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/nwc-review/vol73/iss1/1 This Full Issue is brought to you for free and open access by the Journals at U.S. Naval War College Digital Commons. It has been accepted for inclusion in Naval War College Review by an authorized editor of U.S. Naval War College Digital Commons. For more information, please contact [email protected]. Naval War College: Winter 2020 Full Issue Winter 2020 Volume 73, Number 1 Published by U.S. Naval War College Digital Commons, 2020 1 Naval War College Review, Vol. 73 [2020], No. 1, Art. 1 Cover Two modified Standard Missile 2 (SM-2) Block IV interceptors are launched from the guided-missile cruiser USS Lake Erie (CG 70) during a Missile Defense Agency (MDA) test to intercept a short-range ballistic-missile target, conducted on the Pacific Missile Range Facility, west of Hawaii, in 2008. The SM-2 forms part of the Aegis ballistic-missile defense (BMD) program. In “A Double-Edged Sword: Ballistic-Missile Defense and U.S. Alli- ances,” Robert C. Watts IV explores the impact of BMD on America’s relationship with NATO, Japan, and South Korea, finding that the forward-deployed BMD capability that the Navy’s Aegis destroyers provide has served as an important cement to these beneficial alliance relationships. Source: U.S. Navy photo, by the MDA https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/nwc-review/vol73/iss1/1 2 Naval War College: Winter 2020 Full Issue NAVAL WAR COLLEGE REVIEW Winter 2020 Volume 73, Number 1 NAVAL WAR COLLEGE PRESS 686 Cushing Road Newport, RI 02841-1207 Published by U.S. Naval War College Digital Commons, 2020 3 Naval War College Review, Vol. 73 [2020], No. 1, Art. 1 NAVAL WAR COLLEGE PRESS ADVISORY BOARD PRESIDENT, NAVAL WAR COLLEGE Adam Bellow Rear Adm. Shoshana S. Chatfield, USN Seth Cropsey PROVOST Jeffrey Kline Dr. Lewis M. Duncan Gale A. Mattox Capt. Robert C. Rubel, USN (Ret.) DEAN OF NAVAL WARFARE STUDIES Robert A. Silano Thomas J. Culora Marin Strmecki NAVAL WAR COLLEGE PRESS Dov S. Zakheim Carnes Lord, Editor Robert Ayer, Managing Editor NAVAL WAR COLLEGE REVIEW EDITORIAL BOARD Kate Acosta, Associate Editor for Books Donald Chisholm Kaila Aguiar, Associate Editor for Review Stephen Downes-Martin Jillian Sutphin, Associate Editor for Content Andrew S. Erickson Timothy J. 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ISSN 0028-1484 Published by U.S. Naval War College Digital Commons, 2020 5 Naval War College Review, Vol. 73 [2020], No. 1, Art. 1 https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/nwc-review/vol73/iss1/1 6 Naval War College: Winter 2020 Full Issue CONTENTS From the Editors � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 3 President’s Forum � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 7 Strategy and Policy Blurred Lines Gray-Zone Conflict and Hybrid War— Two Failures of American Strategic Thinking� � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 13 Donald Stoker and Craig Whiteside The terms in question and the concepts arising from them cause more harm than good, contribut- ing to a dangerous distortion of the concepts of war, peace, and geopolitical competition, with a negative impact on U�S� and allied security strategy� A Double-Edged Sword Ballistic-Missile Defense and U.S. Alliances � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 49 Robert C. Watts IV While U�S� defense policy contends that BMD strengthens alliances, the historical record is mixed; sometimes BMD has bolstered alliances, but other times it has exacerbated allies’ doubts about U�S� commitment� When determining BMD policy and investments, U�S� leaders should consider not only expected defensive benefits but also how their decisions might affect allies’ perceptions of alliance cohesion and credibility� Northwest Pacific Should the United States Support a Republic of Korea Nuclear Submarine Program? � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 84 Jihoon Yu and Erik French The United States must choose whether it will oppose or support South Korea’s emerging SSN program� While the strategic risks the program represents are readily apparent, the United States should support and assist its ally if South Korea pursues acquisition of SSNs� Naval History Neptune’s Oracle Admiral Harry E. Yarnell’s Wartime Planning, 1918–20 and 1943–44 � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 107 Frank A. Blazich Jr. Admiral Yarnell’s training at the Naval War College combined with his planning experiences of 1918–20 and 1943–44 to instill ideas and methodologies that he applied throughout his career� His Published by U.S. Naval War College Digital Commons, 2020 7 2 NAVAL WARNaval COLLEGE War REVIEW College Review, Vol. 73 [2020], No. 1, Art. 1 study of military history and his half century of service equipped him admirably to provide Navy leadership with sound foundations for further planning efforts� Yarnell’s strategic vision profoundly influenced the interwar Navy and the force that entered the Cold War era� Research & Debate Prediction� � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 135 Wayne P. Hughes Jr. Review Essays Bringing Domestic Politics Back into Grand Strategy� � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 149 American Pendulum: Recurring Debates in U.S. Grand Strategy, by Christopher Hemmer Is the American Century Over?, by Joseph S. Nye Jr. reviewed by Michael O’Hara Will the United States Learn from the Iraq War?� � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 153 The U.S. Army in the Iraq War, vol. 2, Surge and Withdrawal, 2007–2011, ed. Joel D. Rayburn [Col., USA] and Frank K. Sobchak [Col., USA] reviewed by Daniel J� Cormier Book Reviews Maritime Security Risks, Vulnerabilities and Cooperation: Uncertainty in the Indian Ocean, by Lee Cordner reviewed by Sean Sullivan� � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � �