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Transportation Fuel Supply Outlook, 2017

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Transportation Fuel Supply Outlook, 2017 DOCKETED Docket Number: 17-IEPR-05 Project Title: Transportation Energy Demand Forecast TN #: 221377 Document Title: FINAL STAFF REPORT Transportation Fuel Supply Outlook, 2017 Description: ***THIS DOCUMENT SUPERSEDES TN # 221233*** Filer: Harinder Kaur Organization: California Energy Commission Submitter Role: Commission Staff Submission Date: 10/4/2017 2:55:45 PM Docketed Date: 10/4/2017 California Energy Commission FINAL STAFF REPORT Transportation Fuel Supply Outlook, 2017 California Energy Commission Edmund G. Brown Jr., Governor September 2017 | CEC-200-2017-008-SF California Energy Commission Gordon Schremp Ryan Eggers Primary Authors Ryan Eggers Project Manager Marc Pryor Acting Office Manager SUPPLY ANALYSIS OFFICE Sylvia Bender Deputy Director ENERGY ASSESSMENTS DIVISION Robert P. Oglesby Executive Director DISCLAIMER Staff members of the California Energy Commission prepared this report. As such, it does not necessarily represent the views of the Energy Commission, its employees, or the State of California. The Energy Commission, the State of California, its employees, contractors and subcontractors make no warrant, express or implied, and assume no legal liability for the information in this report; nor does any party represent that the uses of this information will not infringe upon privately owned rights. This report has not been approved or disapproved by the Energy Commission nor has the Commission passed upon the accuracy or adequacy of the information in this report. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Narayani Balakrishnan pipeline movement analysis Susan Ejlalmaneshan marine import/export analysis Julio Gutierrez refinery analysis Foua Moua retail fuel sales analysis Alexander Wong PIIRA data consultation Gary Yowell alternative fuel consumption analysis Barbara Crume formatting/editing Harinder Kaur formatting/editing i ABSTRACT California Public Resources Code Section 25301 requires the California Energy Commission to prepare an Integrated Energy Policy Report every two years that includes assessments and forecasts of all aspects of energy industry supply, production, transportation, delivery and distribution, demand, and prices. The Energy Commission uses these assessments and forecasts to provide an analytic foundation for developing energy policies that conserve resources, protect the environment, ensure energy reliability, enhance the state's economy, and protect public health and safety. This report looks at information collected by the Energy Commission through its Petroleum Industry Information Reporting Act regulations for analyzing trends in liquid fuel production, storage, and distribution. Energy Commission staff developed new metrics using aggregated data collected by this regulation to help inform the California public on the operations of liquid transportation fuels supply chains. In addition, staff analyzed several other data sources to provide a more comprehensive discussion of California’s liquid transportation fuel issues. Report topics include: • California, United States, and world crude oil production. • Refinery operations and crude oil utilization. • Production of liquid transportation fuels. • Import and export volumes of liquid transportation fuels for Northern and Southern California. • Liquid biofuel production and feedstock utilization. • Industry regulatory changes and issues. Keywords: Price, transportation, gasoline, petroleum, diesel, liquid, alternative gaseous fuels Schremp, Gordon, Ryan Eggers. 2017. Transportation Fuel Outlook, 2017. California Energy Commission. Publication Number: CEC-200-2017-008-SF. ii TABLE OF CONTENTS Page Acknowledgements ........................................................................................................................... i Abstract ................................................................................................................................................ ii Table of Contents ............................................................................................................................. iii List of Figures.................................................................................................................................... iv List of Tables.................................................................................................................................... viii Executive Summary.......................................................................................................................... 1 CHAPTER 1: Introduction .................................................................................................................... 5 CHAPTER 2: Crude Oil Production ..................................................................................................... 8 United States Crude Oil Extraction Developments ........................................................................ 10 Global Crude Oil Production Trends ........................................................................................................... 15 Crude Oil Logistics and Distribution ........................................................................................................... 17 Crude Oil Export Restrictions Lifted ........................................................................................................... 18 Shift to Crude-by-Rail Increases and Expands to West Coast ................................................................... 19 California Crude-by-Rail Activity ............................................................................................................... 20 CHAPTER 3: California’s Transportation Fuel Supply Network ...................................................... 24 California Refinery Operations ....................................................................................................... 25 Transportation Fuel Consumption ................................................................................................. 35 Finished Gasoline and Ethanol ....................................................................................................................36 Finished Diesel Fuel, Biodiesel, and Renewable Diesel Fuel ..................................................................... 36 Aviation Fuel ................................................................................................................................................39 Gaseous Fuels .............................................................................................................................................. 40 Transportation Electricity ............................................................................................................................42 California Transportation Fuel Product Movements ..................................................................... 43 California Transportation Fuel Flows ......................................................................................................... 45 Gasoline Flows—Imports, Exports, and Intrastate Movements ................................................................49 Diesel Flows—Imports, Exports, and Intrastate Movements ..................................................................... 58 Responses to Significant Refinery Disruptions .............................................................................. 64 Retail Distribution ........................................................................................................................... 76 United States ................................................................................................................................................ 77 California ...................................................................................................................................................... 81 California’s Transportation Fuel Supply Issues ............................................................................. 88 Proposed Hydrofluoric Acid Alkylation Phaseout ..................................................................................... 88 Proposed San Francisco Bay Area Refinery Greenhouse Gas Limits ........................................................ 90 Canada Crude Oil Trends .............................................................................................................................92 Reduced Sulfur Levels in Marine Bunker Fuels ..........................................................................................94 iii Chapter 4: Renewable and Alternative Fuels .................................................................................... 97 Ethanol Supply Outlook .................................................................................................................. 97 United States Ethanol Supply ....................................................................................................................100 Brazil Ethanol Supply ................................................................................................................................. 106 California Ethanol Supply ...........................................................................................................................112 Ethanol Feedstock Availability ...................................................................................................................115 Biodiesel Supply Outlook ..............................................................................................................
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