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Space Age Is Emerging EQUITY RESEARCH | April 4, 2017 A new Space Age is emerging. Rocket launches are being privatized, the most ambitious satellite constellation ever is Noah Poponak, CFA being deployed, man is looking +1 212 357-0954 back to the Moon and to Mars, [email protected] and militaries are vying for the Goldman, Sachs & Co. ultimate high ground. In the latest in our Profiles in Matthew Porat +1 801 884-4174 Innovation series, we examine [email protected] where new industries are being Goldman, Sachs & Co. created, and where others are being disrupted in the latest race Michael Bishop +44(20)7552-4248 to harness the cosmos. We show [email protected] how technological advances and Goldman Sachs International necessity are creating a wave of opportunity as business and Chris Hallam governments invest in a new +44(20)7552-2958 [email protected] Space Economy. Goldman Sachs International Brett Feldman INSIDE: +1 212 902-8156 [email protected] Goldman, Sachs & Co. Private Company Ecosystem Heath P. Terry, CFA +1 212 357-1849 [email protected] Goldman, Sachs & Co. PROFILESIN INNOVATION The Next Investment Frontier Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Analysts employed by non-US affiliates are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA in the U.S. The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. April 4, 2017 Profiles in Innovation Table of Contents Space in numbers 3 Executive summary 4 The Ecosystem 7 Rocket Science 101 9 Rockets 9 Satellites 10 Ground infrastructure 13 Creative Disruption 17 Launch: Access to space is now cheaper and easier 19 Satellite Manufacturers: Rapidly changing capabilities 36 Satellite Services: Structural changes in supply & demand 44 Insurance: For when things go boom 52 Venture Capital Horizons 55 Nuance within Space: Sub-verticals in focus 57 Expect VC funding in Space startups to accelerate 58 Exploration 63 Civil Space: Wrestling with the value of exploration 64 New Space Explorers: Emerging markets in space 71 Earth Observation – Eyes in the Sky 71 Tourism – Normalizing human spaceflight 73 Space Mining – Unlimited resources? 74 On-orbit OEMs – The backbone of the future 76 Militarization 79 Why Space is poised to outgrow the budget 83 What does the greater threat imply for investment? 90 Disclosure Appendix 94 Contributing authors: Noah Poponak, CFA; Matthew Porat; Michael Bishop; Chris Hallam; Heath P. Terry, CFA; Brett Feldman; Andrew Lee; Sam Wood; Peter Lapthorn; Gavin Parsons; Tais Correa; Adam Hotchkiss; David Tamberrino, CFA. This is the eighth report in our Profiles in Innovation series analyzing how emerging technologies are creating profit pools and disrupting old ones. Access the entire series below and visit our portal to see related resources, including a video on the topic. Virtual & Drones Factory of the Blockchain Precision Farming Advanced Artificial Augmented Reality Future Materials Intelligence Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 2 THE NEW SPACE AGE in numbers START-UP SUPPORT $13.3 BILLION SATEL-LITE Total investment in space start-ups since 2000, heavily weighted toward the last 10 years. (p. 60) 10cm x 10cm x 10cm WORLD WIDE WEB The size of a CubeSat, one of the smallest The share of the world’s population satellites and also the most common. A that satellite connectivity could bring CubeSat weighs only 1 kg and has up to a 50% online. (p. 36) 3-year lifespan vs. thousands of kilograms / 15 years for traditional commercial and government satellites. While CubeSats have to be replaced more frequently because of THE SPACE(X) RACE their shorter lifespan, the benefit is a newer The launch discount that SpaceX offers and more technologically advanced fleet in versus incumbents, though at lower orbit. (p. 10) 40% success rates. (p. 25) Satellite drawn to scale The US share of global commercial launch revenues, averaged over the STRIKE IT RICH 19% last decade. Europe dominated with 2006-2016 a 45% share over the same period, while Russia held 25%. (p. 23) $25-50 BILLION The value of platinum on an asteroid the size of a football field, according to Planetary Resources. Asteroids are also The US share of global commercial rich in water, which can be converted into rocket fuel launch revenues in 2016, driven (orbiting gas stations, anyone?). We believe space mining largely by SpaceX, creating a virtual 47% is still a long way from commercial viability, but it has the duopoly between US (SpaceX) and 2016 potential to further ease access to space and facilitate an European (Arianespace) launchers. in-space manufacturing economy. (p. 74) (p. 23) FOR THE LONELY-PLANET TYPES OUTGROWING THE BUDGET The CAGR we expect for the US defense $35 MILLION / PERSON and intelligence space budget over the next five years as the Pentagon seeks to defend $250,000 / PERSON 6% half a trillion dollars worth of friendly assets in orbit. We believe many A&D investors The historical price of a tourist seat on a Soyuz rocket vs. underestimate the size of the government a tourist seat on Sir Richard Branson’s new Virgin Galactic space budget. (p. 80) sub-orbital spacecraft. (p. 73) April 4, 2017 Profiles in Innovation Executive summary The Second Space Age has begun, and the forces of innovation and disruption are overtaking formerly stagnant industries. New technology is emerging, as old assets fossilize and certain legacy industries wrestle with structural change. Space has always played an important role in our lives, a lynchpin in the modern era, with so many components of everyday life either due to, or reliant on, space and its players. But the space economy is also now inflecting, and we believe will become a multi-trillion dollar market within the next two decades. The key driver of change today is the enabling power of major change in the commercial launch and satellite manufacturing industries. While relatively small markets today, rapidly falling costs are lowering the barrier to participate in the space economy, making new industries like space tourism, asteroid mining, and on-orbit manufacturing viable, and growing the existing flagship communications satellite services business while taking exploration deeper into space. Space is becoming a military focal point as governments pivot off Earth and space becomes more congested. If conflict were to start between substantial powers, the opening salvos could be in space, where years of underinvestment have left key assets vulnerable. This looks set to drive an immediate resurgence in US military space investment. We have broken this report in to 3 major sections: (1) Creative disruption – where we assess which profit pools are being created and which disrupted in the space economy, and what is moving to private enterprise from government, with a particular focus on the launch and satellite industries. For more on the Venture Capital Horizons: As part of our VCH initiative, Heath Terry Venture Capital assesses the venture capital funding landscape in Space, finding that new Horizons initiative, funding in the sector has been growing rapidly in recent years. see the team’s inaugural report (2) Exploration – where we assess whether or not NASA can resurge, and what it Venture Capital next explores, as well as look at new exploration industries including space Horizons: The Global tourism and asteroid mining. Venture Landscape. (3) Militarization – where we assess the degree of criticality of space in military strategies, and look at the potential for increased investment in space by the US military, given both its significance and vulnerability. Creative Disruption: profit pool creation and disruption in Space Structural change is coming to space, as new entrants and new technologies displace the old guard, both public and private. This is most apparent in launch and satellites. New entrants and privates in launch are attempting to reinvent the process of getting to Space, including technologies like reusability and shared payloads. New satellite technology, including high throughput and constellations, is materially changing the supply source, disrupting the existing satellite OEM and services businesses. While these changes cause near-term disruptions, they could ultimately open up the Space economy and its positive impacts to a substantially larger set of industrial companies and the world’s population. 3 key takeaways from this section: 1. Launch: There are several new or private players, including the likes of SpaceX (Elon Musk) and Blue Origin (Jeff Bezos), driving innovation in launch. Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 4 April 4, 2017 Profiles in Innovation 2. Satellite: Services end markets are seeing oversupply and therefore pricing is deteriorating rapidly. Planned growth in small satellites, satellite constellations, and high throughput satellites could exacerbate this situation. 3. A new economy: While new entrants pushing new boundaries can be harmful to some near-term, it is opening up an entire new space economy with substantial new opportunity, long term. Creative Disruption: Exposures Launch Satellite Manufacturing Satellite Services SpaceX (Private) Boeing (BA) OneWeb (Private) Large Geostationary Orbit market share
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