Cities in China: A World Context
Presentation by to the Wendell Cox Dalian Marco Polo Society Laodong Park Shanghai – 17 November 2014 OUTLINE Background on Cities Cities in China Transport in China Concluding Thoughts Los Angeles Major Cities Toured in China 1999-2014
Shanghai Quanzhou Fuzhou Shijiazhuang Shantou Beijing Nanjing Jinan Urumqi Chaoyang-Chaonan Guangzhou-Foshan Shenyang Ningbo Wenzhou Tangshan Shenzhen Xi'an Taiyuan Zhangjiaggang-Jiangyin Shaoxing Tianjin Qingdao Changsha Zhongshan Huai'an Chengdu Suzhou Hefei Guiyang Hohhot Dongguan Zhengzhou Kunming Lanzhou Baotou Wuhan Harbin Wuxi Nanchang Handan Hangzhou Xiamen Changzhou Nanning Haikou Chongqing Dalian Changchun Linyi Luoyang Background on Cities
Purpose of Cities: Economic Opportunity Urban Area: Continuous Development NOT BASED ON JURISDICTIONAL BOUNDARIES
EXAMPLE: HARBIN Municipality: 10.6M Urban qu: 5.9M Urban area: 4.3M A World History of Poverty PROSPERITY IS NEW AND FRAGILE
Dhaka, Bangladesh 7 7 GDP Per Capita (Highest Nation) 1500 TO 2000 (2000$) $45,000 $40,000 $35,000 $30,000 $25,000 $20,000 $15,000 $10,000 $5,000 $0 1500 1550 1600 1650 1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 World’s Largest Cities (Urban Areas) 650 BC TO PRESENT 35 30 BELOW Huge Swings:
Hangzhou , China 1000 to1500 25 (Largest Pre-19th Century Urban High 1.1M 20 Area: 1300)? Low 0.25M 15 Example 10 Population (Millions) Population 5
0 500 900 1100 1000 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 650BC 400BC 200BC 100AD
Hangzhou China: % Urban Residents 1950-2050
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30% PER UNITED NATIONS 20% 2015-2030 155M Increase 10% 2030-2050: 20M Increase
0% 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Mobility & Economic Growth EMPLOYMENT ACCESS IN THE LABOR MARKET
Mobility improves economy & job creation Prud’homme & Lee U. Of Paris & others
Economic growth enhanced by quick travel through metropolitan area (labor market)
Tianjin GDP Growth: China & Examples NATIONS WITH LOW INCOMES IN 1980
Philippines CHINA 1980 Ranked 133 of 135 Indonesia Growth 1980-2013 3x 2nd & 3rd Pakistan Burundi South Korea India
Bhutan
China
Sudan 2013 1980 Mozambique
$0 $2,000 $4,000 $6,000 $8,000 $10,000 GDP (PPP) per Capita: 2013$ Poverty Reduction: China & the World REDUCTION IN EXTREME POVERTY POPULATION:1981-2008 100
0 China Rest of the Developing World -100
-200 Calculated from World Bank data -300 Millions Population:
-400
-500 Change: Poverty Poverty Change: -600
-700 Cities in China
Guiyang Chongqing NOT THE LARGEST CITY IN THE WORLD
CHONGQING MUNICIPALITY 30 Million, 82,000 KM2 (Size of Austria) CHONGQING URBAN AREA 7 Million, 360 KM2 25 Largest Urban Areas in the World 2014 Tokyo Jakarta Delhi Seoul Manila Shanghai Karachi New York Mexico City Sao Paulo Beijing Guangzhou-Foshan Mumbai Osaka-Kobe-Kyoto Moscow Los Angeles Cairo Source: Bangkok Kolkata Demographia World Dhaka Urban Areas Buenos Aires Tehran Istanbul Shenzhen Lagos 0 10 20 30 40 Population (x1,000,000) Urban Area Density Examples POPULATION PER URBAN SQUARE KILOMETER: 2014 Dhaka Mumbai Hong Kong Kinshasa Manila Seoul Shenzhen Shanghai Guangzhou-Foshan Beijing Tokyo Paris HK Kowloon Walled City Los Angeles Up to 2,000,000 Toronto New York Slums in Dhaka Portland Up to 1,000,000 Atlanta 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 Population per Square Kilometer Cities Grow & Become Less Dense EXAMPLE OF ADDIS ABABA, ETHIOPIA URBAN DENSITY 1973: 30,000 2010: 8,000 (per KM2) Suburban World NEARLY ALL URBAN GROWTH IN SUBURBS: 35+YEARS
114%
97% 94% 93% 92% Australia Canada United States Europe Western Japan Moscow Suburbs Shanghai Population: 2000-2010 BY SECTOR
18,000,000
16,000,000
14,000,000 2000 2010 12,000,000
10,000,000
8,000,000
6,000,000
4,000,000
2,000,000
0 Inner Core Outer Core Balance Shanghai Density by Area: 2010 POPULATION PER SQUARE KILOMETER 100,000 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 Huangpu Jing'an Outer Beyond Qu Qu Core Housing Affordability: 2013/2014 PRICE-INCOME MULTIPLE (HIGHER: LESS AFFORDABLE)
China: Hong Kong
China: 40 Other Cities
New Zealand
Australia The Economist (2014) Singapore Demographia (2013)
United Kingdom
Canada
Japan
Ireland
United States
0 5 10 15 Housing Affordability: 2013/14 Examples PRICE-INCOME MULTIPLE (HIGHER: LESS AFFORDABLE) Shenzhen Beijing Hong Kong Shanghai Vancouver San Francisco Sydney Melbourne The Economist: 2014 Nanjing Demographia: 2013 Auckland Chengdu London Chongqing Price to Income Ratios Changsha Major Metropolitan Areas Hohhot Sources: Tokyo The Economist Dublin Demographia Chicago Atlanta 0 5 10 15 20 Lujiazui Chongqing
Unusual: Dense Central Business Districts MOST CITIES HAVE DISPERSED COMMERCIAL CORES Shanghai Job Locations: 2004 BASED ON TRAVEL SURVEY
SHANGHAI CBD Central Business Similar in total District (Puxi & employment Lujiazui) To London, Osaka, 15% Seoul Smaller than Tokyo, New York
Inner Ring Outer Ring Balance 58% 27%
New York Metropolitan Area Employment BY SECTOR OF METROPOLITAN AREA: 2000 Shenyang TWO ADJACENT CENTRAL BUSINESS DISTRICTS Tianjin ULTIMATE IN POLYCENTRICITY?
Tianjin: 90+ story buildings in three areas Beijing DISPERSED & POLYCENTRIC
Other Examples: Qingdao, Wuhan, Guangzhou, Taiyuan Chengdu, Kunming, Changsha Dongguan: Ultimate Dispersion? DELHI OR PHOENIX OF CHINA?
Pearl River Delta ADJACENT URBAN AREAS
Population: 53.9 Million Urban Area KM2: 3,245 Tokyo: 37.8 Million Urban Area KM2 : 3,300
Guangzhou Guangzhou-Foshan Dongguan
Shenzhen Jiangmen Zhongshan
Hong Kong
Zhuhai
Macau Pearl River Delta Urban Areas Tokyo Rail Transit System TOKYO: HIGHER RIDERSHIP THAN CANADA & US COMBINED Quanzhou (Fujian) IN SITU URBANIZATION
Transport in China
World’s largest high speed rail network Motorway/Interstate Standard Expressways LENGTH: CHINA, EUROPE & UNITED STATES (2014) 120,000
100,000
80,000
60,000
Route Kilometers Route 40,000
20,000
0 China United States EU-15 4 Largest Economies: Passenger Transport DOMESTIC: LATEST YEAR 8,000
7,000 United States
China 6,000 European Union 5,000 Japan
4,000
3,000
2,000 Billions of Passenger Kilometers Billions of Passenger 1,000
0 Railway Car & Bus Airline 4 Largest Economies: Freight Transport DOMESTIC: LATEST YEAR 10,000
9,000 United States
8,000 China 7,000 European Union Japan 6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000 Billions of Tonne Kilometers Billions of Tonne 2,000
1,000
0 Railway Highway (Truck) Waterway Pipeline China: Metro World Leader STRONG RATE OF BUILDING CONTINUES
RIDERSHIP ROUTE LENGTH 1-Beijing 1-Shanghai 3-Shanghai 2-Beijing 6-Guangzhou 8-Guangzhou 9-Hong Kong
Beijing Subway China: E-Bike World Leader ENVIRONMENTALLY FRIENDLY, INEXPENSIVE
Suzhou Traffic Congestion: 25 Worst Cities TOM TOM CONGESTION INDEX Moscow Istanbul Rio de Janeiro Tianjin Mexico City Hangzhou Sao Paulo Chongqing China Beijing Brussels Other Warsaw Shijiazhuang Nanjing Fuzhou Shanghai Shenzhen Includes China, Changchun Changsha Americas, Europe, South Rome Africa, Australia & New Los Angeles Paris Zealand (Not all urban Marseille areas) Ningbo Source: Tom Tom Cape Town Sydney 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% Time Added to Travel in Peak Hours Concluding Thoughts
Lanzhou
From Old to New China ACCOMPLISHMENTS & CHALLENGES Evaluating the Success of Cities: Facilitation of Opportunity