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Has Joint Implementation Reduced GHG Emissions? Lessons Learned for the Design of Carbon Market Mechanisms

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Has Joint Implementation Reduced GHG Emissions? Lessons Learned for the Design of Carbon Market Mechanisms Stockholm Environment Institute, Working Paper 2015-07 Has Joint Implementation reduced GHG emissions? Lessons learned for the design of carbon market mechanisms Anja Kollmuss, Lambert Schneider and Vladyslav Zhezherin Stockholm Environment Institute Linnégatan 87D 104 51 Stockholm Sweden Tel: +46 8 674 7070 Fax: +46 8 674 7020 Web: www.sei-international.org Author contact: Anja Kollmuss, [email protected] Director of Communications: Robert Watt Editors: Elaine Beebe and Marion Davis Cover photo: A steel plant in Ukraine with a coal waste heap in the background. Photo © Mykola Ivashchenko. This publication may be reproduced in whole or in part and in any form for educa- tional or non-profit purposes, without special permission from the copyright holder(s) provided acknowledgement of the source is made. No use of this publication may be made for resale or other commercial purpose, without the written permission of the copyright holder(s). About SEI Working Papers: The SEI working paper series aims to expand and accelerate the availability of our research, stimulate discussion, and elicit feedback. SEI working papers are work in progress and typically contain preliminary research, analysis, findings, and recom- mendations. Many SEI working papers are drafts that will be subsequently revised for a refereed journal or book. Other papers share timely and innovative knowledge that we consider valuable and policy-relevant, but which may not be intended for later publication. Copyright © August 2015 by Stockholm Environment Institute STOCKHOLM ENVIRONMENT INSTITUTE WORKING PAPER NO. 2015-07 Has Joint Implementation reduced GHG emissions? Lessons learned for the design of carbon market mechanisms Anja Kollmuss, Lambert Schneider Stockholm Environment Institute – U.S. Centre Vladyslav Zhezherin Independent consultant ABSTRACT This study systematically evaluates the environmental integrity of Joint Implementation (JI) in the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol. Our analysis indicates that about three-quarters of JI offsets are unlikely to represent additional emissions reductions. This suggests that the use of JI offsets may have enabled global GHG emissions to be about 600 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent higher than they would have been if countries had met their emissions domestically. Of the six largest project types assessed in more detail, we find only one – N2O abatement from nitric acid production – had overall high environmental integrity. Our evaluation clearly shows that oversight of an international market mechanism by the host country alone is insufficient to ensure environmental integrity. The paper makes recommendations for the ongoing review of the JI Guidelines, for carbon markets generally, and for a new climate agreement. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS We thank Oleksandr Baskov for his research assistance and Boris Orlowsky for creating the random sample for us. We thank (in alphabetical order) Karoliina Anttonen, Christopher Brandt, Lennard de Klerk, Piotr Dombrowicki, Angela Friedrich, Roland Geres, Thomas Kleiser, Trine Kopperud, Harri Laurikka, Michael Lazarus, Laurence Mortier, Konrad Raeschke-Kessler, Ingo Ramming, Igor Shishlov, Kevin Tempest, and those who preferred to remain anonymous for helpful input and comments. This report has been commissioned by the Austrian Federal Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry, Environment and Water Management, the Ministry of the Environment of Finland, and the Federal Office for the Environment of Switzerland. The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official views of the Austrian, Finnish and Swiss governments. HAS JI REDUCED GHG EMISSIONS? LESSONS FOR THE DESIGN OF CARBON MARKET MECHANISMS SEI WP 2015-07 CONTENTS Executive Summary ............................................................................................................ 5 Introduction ...................................................................................................................... 5 Impact of JI on global emissions ........................................................................................ 5 Plausibility of additionality claims ...................................................................................... 5 Environmental integrity of key project types ........................................................................ 6 Environmental integrity of Track 1 and Track 2 .................................................................. 8 Accredited Independent Entities ......................................................................................... 8 Differences among host countries ...................................................................................... 9 Lessons learned for the design of crediting mechanisms..................................................... 9 Implications for the reform and future of JI ...................................................................... 10 Implications for market mechanisms under a new climate agreement .............................. 11 1. Introduction ................................................................................................................ 13 1.1 Purpose of this study ................................................................................................. 13 1.2 Research approach ................................................................................................... 13 2. Joint Implementation: an overview ................................................................................ 17 2.1 JI governance structures ............................................................................................ 17 2.2 JI rules and procedures on environmental integrity .................................................... 19 3. When does the environmental integrity of JI projects matter? .......................................... 22 3.1 Is the JI project additional, and are emission reductions correctly credited? ................ 22 3.2 Does the host country have a surplus of AAUs? ......................................................... 23 3.3 Are the JI emission reductions reflected in the host country’s GHG inventory? ............. 24 3.4 Impact of environmental integrity of JI projects on global emissions ........................... 25 4. Assessment of approaches for demonstrating additionality ............................................. 28 4.1 Identification of alternative scenarios ......................................................................... 28 4.2 Investment analysis ................................................................................................... 29 4.3 Barrier analysis ......................................................................................................... 31 4.4 Common practice analysis ........................................................................................ 32 4.5 Prior consideration .................................................................................................... 33 4.6 Retroactive crediting of emissions reductions .............................................................. 35 4.7 Demonstration of additionality by reference to a comparable project ......................... 36 4.8 Overall assessment of the likelihood of additionality of JI projects .............................. 37 5. Assessment of specific JI project types ........................................................................... 40 5.1 Spontaneous ignition of coal waste piles.................................................................... 41 5.2 Energy efficiency in industry and power production and distribution ........................... 49 5.3 Associated petroleum gas utilization .......................................................................... 53 5.4 Natural gas transportation and distribution ............................................................... 58 5.5 HFC-23 and SF6 abatement ...................................................................................... 61 5.6 N2O abatement at nitric acid plants .......................................................................... 65 5.7 Summary of findings by project type .......................................................................... 72 6. Assessment by country ................................................................................................. 73 6.1 Ukraine .................................................................................................................... 75 6.2 Russia ....................................................................................................................... 80 6.3 EU Member States as JI host countries ....................................................................... 84 6.4 Poland ...................................................................................................................... 85 6.5 Germany .................................................................................................................. 89 6.6 Comparison of environmental integrity of the project portfolio by country .................. 92 7. Assessment of differences between Track 1 and Track 2 ................................................. 93 7.1 Size difference between Track 1 and Track 2 projects ................................................ 94 7.2 Environmental integrity of Track 1 and Track 2 projects ............................................. 96 8. Assessment of accredited
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