Bristol One City Climate Strategy Preliminary Climate Resilience Assessment FINAL ISSUE 24 th February 2020 ©Arup Important notice and disclaimer This Report has been prepared by Ove Arup While Arup considers that the information and Findings are time-sensitive and relevant only and Partners Ltd ("Arup") specifically for and opinions be provided in this report are sound to current conditions at the time of under the instructions of Bristol City Council and robust, all parties must rely upon their writing. We will not be under any obligation (the "Client"), in the context of the own skill and judgement when making use of to update the report to address changes in development of Bristol’s One City Climate it. facts or circumstances that occur after the Strategy, and in accordance with the scope, In preparing this report we have relied on date of our report that might materially affect terms and condition of our appointment. information supplied by others. 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We recognise the interconnected and global Arup was commissioned by Bristol City projected to increase by up to The potential impacts to our people and public nature of the world, which exposes Bristol to Council, on behalf of the Environmental services are wide ranging. We can learn and physical climate risks well beyond the city’s Sustainability Board, to conduct a preliminary 48% adapt from events such as the 2003 heatwave boundary. Impacts may be non-linear, and climate resilience assessment for Bristol. in Europe, where 2,000 people died in the UK compounding impacts could cause system Summer maximum temperature (Met Office, 2019d) . breakdown. This focused on gathering existing data and is projected to increase by over information on climate vulnerability, which Our food system is at risk of shortages of Recommendations comprises: +9°C supply and increased costs, particularly given There is a need to take greater adaptation • Climate hazards, and how these are the global nature of the supply chain. action now, based on our current knowledge projected to change in the coming By 2080, summer precipitation Our wider economic supply chain is also at of the risks we face. This includes: decades on the basis of the best climate rate in Bristol is projected to risk, with clothes and electronic equipment, • Progressing adaptation plans for flood risk science. decrease by up to being the other areas particularly at risk. management in Avonmouth and • The sensitivity of the physical, social, 68% Adapting and preparing for a changing Severnside and the City Centre environmental and economic systems in climate • Improving our ability to respond to and Bristol to these hazards; and The likelihood of other hazards, such as recover from extreme weather events extreme cold, are projected to reduce but it is Bristol is not starting from scratch; planning, • Adaptive capacity, which is the ability of still essential that we are prepared for them. securing funding and developing detailed • Restoring, protecting, enhancing and systems, organisations or people to adjust designs have already been achieved to expanding green infrastructure networks Physical, social and economic impacts of to events, respond to consequences or support preparation and adaptation for a • Preparing buildings for extreme heat take advantage of opportunities. extreme weather changing climate in key areas. Activities Climate change is a global stress that results include the identification of a flood defence • Improving co-ordination and governance of This assessment is focused on the exposure climate resilience in Bristol of Bristol’s assets to climate hazards. in increased frequency and intensity of climate scheme in Avonmouth and Severnside, shocks or hazards. The climate hazards individual organisation’s plans such as Bristol • A more detailed evidence base for heat, Climate hazards identified could have very serious impacts for Water’s Drought Plan, or the local NHS trusts’ drought, storms and high winds. the people of Bristol. adaptation plan and preparedness to respond The future climate is not certain, and we There are a number of areas where we have and recover through things like the Local should be planning for a range of scenarios; Of each of the climate hazards, we identified the need for more evidence and Resilience Forum, or community places of this report recommends considering RCP4.5 understand the spatial distribution of flooding knowledge. In particular, this includes a better safety. and RCP8.5 emissions scenarios (see best and therefore the potential physical understanding of interacting and cascading introduction and methodology for further detail impacts are clearer. We know there are risks There is still much more to be done. risks, including across the supply chain. There on these terms). Under an RCP8.5 scenario, to homes, businesses, schools, community Complexity and uncertainty is also a need for a better local understanding by the time today’s school children retire in assets, and critical infrastructure (including, of complex climate hazards, such as storms 2080, Bristol could see: for example, Temple Meads station). These Climate change is a complex challenge. We and other types of drought. Sea level on Bristol’s coastline is impacts will get progressively worse to 2080. know that risks are interconnected, as well as In many areas, knowledge is also lacking at a projected to increase by up to having the potential to cause cascading Whilst we know less about the spatial impacts. national and international level, and +72cm distribution of extreme heat and drought, we opportunities to collaborate should be sought. 3 Contents 1. Introduction 5 2. Methodology 6 3. Bristol’s climate hazard exposure 11 4. Bristol’s key city assets 16 5. Sensitivity of Bristol’s assets 17 6. Current adaptive capacity 38 7. Conclusions and recommendations 42 Appendices and references 44 forkcandles CC BY-ND 2.0 4 1. Introduction Overview We the Curious, the Watershed, The Bristol or a heatwave; Our study comprises three key asset themes: Arup has been commissioned to undertake a Old Vic and the Colston Hall. • a stress which is a longer-term cumulative • Physical assets : This includes the grey, high-level climate resilience assessment for Bristol recognises the need to play a part in issue such as climate change which green and blue infrastructure and the citywide assets within the City of Bristol. minimising the impact of climate change on affects weather systems and rising buildings across the city. This comprises This assessment is focused on the exposure temperatures ( 100 Resilient Cities, 2015 ); both the critical nodes and main linear of these assets to climate hazards. the most vulnerable communities through or infrastructure. emissions reductions and supporting and This study was commissioned by Bristol City providing security to climate migrants. • an opportunity to develop / an uncertainty • Social assets : This includes health, Council (BCC) to provide evidence to feed that could have a positive impact. education and community assets both Introduction to climate hazards in Bristol into the One City Climate Strategy. This study We have focused on three key primary physical and intangible (including human is focused on risk assessment, or Our climate is warming and the impact this is climate hazards for this assessment: and social capital). understanding and analysing physical climate having on people and ecosystems is already • Flooding • Business and the economy : The city’s risk. severe. The past four years (2015 to 2018) network of producers, distributors and This climate adaptation