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Joint Spatial Plan Joint Transport Study Final Report October 2017

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WEST OF ENGLAND “BUILDING OUR FUTURE” West of England Joint Spatial Plan Joint Transport Study final report October 2017 NOVEMBER 2017 9 www.jointplanningwofe.org.uk West of England Joint Transport Study Final Report Notice This document and its contents have been prepared and are intended solely for the West of England authorities’ information and use in relation to the West of England Joint Transport Study. Atkins Limited assumes no responsibility to any other party in respect of or arising out of or in connection with this document and/or its contents. This document has 120 pages including the cover. Document history Job number: 5137782 Document ref: Final Report Revision Purpose description Originated Checked Reviewed Authorised Date Rev 1.0 First Draft JFC TP, SG RT, TM JFC 05/05/17 Rev 2.0 Second Draft JFC, TP 26/05/17 Rev 3.0 Third Draft JFC BD, SG RT JFC 07/06/17 Rev 4.0 Fourth Draft JFC SG RT JFC 21/06/17 Rev 5.0 5th Draft (Interim Version) JFC 27/06/17 Rev 6.0 Sixth Draft JFC SG RT JFC 28/06/17 Rev 7.0 Final Draft JFC RT RT JFC 07/07/17 Rev 8.0 Revised Final Draft JFC JFC 01/09/17 Rev 9.0 Final JFC SG RT JFC 19/10/17 Client signoff Client West of England authorities Project West of England Joint Transport Study Document title Final Report Job no. 5137782 Copy no. Document 5137782/Final Report reference Atkins West of England Joint Transport Study Final Report | October 2017 West of England Joint Transport Study Final Report Table of contents Chapter Pages 1. Introduction 1 1.1. Role of the Joint Transport Study 1 1.2. Process 1 1.3. Structure of this Report 3 2. A Growing City Region 5 2.1. Introduction 5 2.2. Existing Conditions 5 2.3. Current Planned Growth 6 2.4. Longer Term Growth 7 2.5. Growth in Adjacent Areas 9 2.6. National economic growth and connectivity 10 2.7. Summary 11 3. Shaping the Transport Vision 12 3.1. Introduction 12 3.2. Evidence 12 3.3. Engagement 13 3.4. Transport challenges 14 3.5. Goals and objectives 26 3.6. Potential options 28 3.7. Summary 29 4. Transport Vision 30 4.1. Introduction 30 4.2. Current West of England Investment Programme 30 4.3. Overview of the Transport Vision 32 4.4. Components of the Transport Vision 37 4.5. Consultation on the Transport Vision 47 4.6. Summary 48 5. South West: Weston-super-Mare to Bristol 49 5.1. Introduction 49 5.2. Access to Bristol Airport and A38 Corridor 50 5.3. Weston-super-Mare 51 5.4. Nailsea and the A370, Clevedon and Portishead 52 5.5. M5 from Bristol to the South West 53 5.6. Schemes not included in the Transport Vision 54 6. South East: Bath to Bristol 55 6.1. Introduction 55 6.2. Bath Transport Strategy 56 6.3. Major investment in Bath 56 6.4. A4 corridor via Keynsham and Saltford 58 6.5. South East Bristol (Whitchurch and Keynsham) 59 6.6. Midsomer Norton and Radstock 60 6.7. Schemes not included in the Transport Vision 60 7. North East: Yate to Bristol 62 7.1. Introduction 62 7.2. East Bristol and East Fringe 63 7.3. Connections to Yate 64 Atkins West of England Joint Transport Study Final Report | October 2017 West of England Joint Transport Study Final Report 7.4. M32 and M4 from Bristol to London 65 7.5. Schemes not included in the Transport Vision 66 8. North West: Thornbury to Bristol 67 8.1. Introduction 67 8.2. North Bristol and North Fringe 68 8.3. Bristol Port and Avonmouth/Severnside 68 8.4. A38 to Thornbury and Beyond 69 8.5. M4 and M48 Severn Crossings 70 8.6. M5 to the Midlands 71 8.7. Schemes not included in the Transport Vision 71 9. Bristol 73 9.1. Introduction 73 9.2. Components in Bristol 73 9.3. Bristol Transport Plan 75 9.4. City Centre Movement Strategy 75 10. International Gateways 77 10.1. Introduction 77 10.2. Bristol Port 77 10.3. Bristol Airport 79 10.4. Summary 82 11. National and Regional Connections 83 11.1. Introduction 83 11.2. Rail Network 83 11.3. Strategic Road Network 88 11.4. Summary 92 12. Strategic Case and Outcomes 93 12.1. Introduction 93 12.2. Strategic Case 93 12.3. Impacts on travel behaviour 94 12.4. Impacts on congestion 103 12.5. Economic, social and economic impacts 104 12.6. Summary 107 13. Delivering the Transport Vision 108 13.1. Introduction 108 13.2. Estimated Costs of the Transport Vision 108 13.3. Delivery of the Transport Vision 110 13.4. Next Steps 112 Appendix A: Scheme Assessments 113 Tables Table 2-1 Proposed Development in Core Strategies ............................................................................... 6 Table 3-1 Mode of Travel to Work in the West of England ...................................................................... 15 Table 3-2 Forecast trips by car, bus and rail............................................................................................ 17 Table 4-1 Overview of the West of England Transport Vision ................................................................. 34 Table 4-2 Strength of Support for the Goals ............................................................................................ 36 Table 4-3 Feedback on the Draft Transport Vision .................................................................................. 47 Table 11-1 Current rail journey times, speeds and frequencies between UK cities .................................. 84 Table 11-2 Forecast Growth in Demand for Rail Travel, 2012-2043 ......................................................... 85 Table 12-1 Impacts of Transport Vision on Transport Challenges ............................................................ 93 Table 12-2 Impacts of Transport Vision on Transport Goals ..................................................................... 94 Table 12-3 Demand for selected metro systems in Europe ..................................................................... 100 Atkins West of England Joint Transport Study Final Report | October 2017 West of England Joint Transport Study Final Report Table 12-4 Estimated impacts of Transport Vision on trips and performance of road network ............... 104 Table 13-1 Estimated costs of schemes in Transport Vision ................................................................... 109 Figures Figure 1-1 Timelines for Joint Transport Study and Joint Spatial Plan ....................................................... 2 Figure 1-2 The West of England ................................................................................................................. 4 Figure 2-1 Proposed Development Locations in Joint Spatial Plan (2026-2036) ...................................... 8 Figure 3-1 Sources of Evidence ................................................................................................................ 12 Figure 3-2 Engagement on the Joint Transport Study and Joint Spatial Plan .......................................... 13 Figure 3-3 Changes in trips by cycling, bus and rail between 2008/09 and 2015/16 ............................... 15 Figure 3-4 Travel to Work by Private Transport ........................................................................................ 16 Figure 3-5 Congestion in the West of England ......................................................................................... 18 Figure 3-6 Economic Growth Areas in the West of England..................................................................... 21 Figure 3-7 Deprivation in the West of England (households deprived in two dimensions) ....................... 22 Figure 3-8 Air Quality Management Area in Bristol ................................................................................... 23 Figure 3-9 Environmental Assets in the West of England ......................................................................... 25 Figure 3-10 Framework for shaping the Transport Vision ........................................................................... 27 Figure 4-1 Existing Investment Programme .............................................................................................. 31 Figure 4-2 Concept of Transport Vision .................................................................................................... 32 Figure 4-3 West of England Transport Vision ........................................................................................... 35 Figure 5-1 South West Area ...................................................................................................................... 49 Figure 6-1 South East Area ....................................................................................................................... 55 Figure 7-1 North East Area ....................................................................................................................... 62 Figure 8-1 North West Area ...................................................................................................................... 67 Figure 10-1 Location of Bristol Port ............................................................................................................. 78 Figure 10-2 Location of Bristol Airport ......................................................................................................... 80 Figure 11-1 Average load forecasts on morning peak train services into Bristol in 2043 ........................... 86 Figure 11-2 Average Annual SRN Delay, April 2014 - March 2015 ............................................................ 89 Figure 12-1 Commuting in the West of England in 2011 and 2036 (person trips) ...................................... 95 Figure 12-2 Commuting in the West of England in 2011 and 2036 (mode split) .......................................
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