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Predictors of Conviction: an Examination of Arson Trial Outcomes in Florida Timothy York Walden University

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Predictors of Conviction: an Examination of Arson Trial Outcomes in Florida Timothy York Walden University Walden University ScholarWorks Walden Dissertations and Doctoral Studies Walden Dissertations and Doctoral Studies Collection 2018 Predictors of Conviction: An Examination of Arson Trial Outcomes in Florida Timothy York Walden University Follow this and additional works at: https://scholarworks.waldenu.edu/dissertations Part of the Criminology Commons, Criminology and Criminal Justice Commons, and the Public Policy Commons This Dissertation is brought to you for free and open access by the Walden Dissertations and Doctoral Studies Collection at ScholarWorks. It has been accepted for inclusion in Walden Dissertations and Doctoral Studies by an authorized administrator of ScholarWorks. For more information, please contact [email protected]. Walden University College of Social and Behavioral Sciences This is to certify that the doctoral dissertation by Timothy P. York has been found to be complete and satisfactory in all respects, and that any and all revisions required by the review committee have been made. Review Committee Dr. William Benet, Committee Chairperson, Public Policy and Administration Faculty Dr. Victor Ferreros, Committee Member, Public Policy and Administration Faculty Dr. Mark DeVirgilio, University Reviewer, Public Policy and Administration Faculty Chief Academic Officer Eric Riedel, Ph.D. Walden University 2018 Abstract Predictors of Conviction: An Examination of Arson Trial Outcomes in Florida by Timothy P. York MPA, University of Maine, 2011 BS, Columbia Southern University, 2009 Dissertation Submitted in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy Public Policy & Administration Walden University November 2018 Abstract The influences that crime control, due process factors, and individual demographic characteristics have on the criminal trial outcomes of accused arsonists was unknown. Absent this knowledge, it was not clear if public policy ensures justice for the accused, particularly for the disadvantaged. The purpose of this quasi-experimental study was to investigate, using Packer’s due process and crime control model as the theoretical framework, the relationship between time to trial, number of defense and prosecution witnesses, access to fire origin and cause experts, legal representation type, age, race, education, and gender and criminal arson case outcomes. A sample size of 165 archival court records of those accused of arson from 2011-2015 were analyzed using Packer. According to the results of the logistic regression models, there was a significant relationship (p < .05) between trial outcomes and the use of fact witnesses by the defense and by the prosecution.This relationship moved the pendulum toward crime control for the selected population. The ordered logistic model explained 6.9% of the variation in the criminal case outcomes. Policymakers can use the results of this study to inform criminal justice policy and to prioritize funding to assure fairness and social justice for the accused. Arson defendants and their counsel can use the results to prepare their defense to assure their social justice while prosecutors can use the results to better inform their decisions to assure the legal and factual guilt of the defendant. Future research is needed to provide a clearer understanding of the role that other variables play in the outcome for the population. Predictors of Conviction: An Examination of Arson Trial Outcomes in Florida by Timothy P. York MPA, University of Maine, 2011 BS, Columbia Southern University, 2009 Dissertation Submitted in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy Public Policy & Administration Walden University November 2018 Dedication This dissertation is dedicated to all fire investigators who professionally and ethically seek the truth, and who work tirelessly in determining the origin and cause of fires for a more just and safer society. Acknowledgments In the accomplishment of this journey, many are deserving of thanks, none more than my family, especially my wife, Tammi, for their support and encouragement during the doctoral journey. Without their support and encouragement, the journey would have been more difficult and perhaps even insurmountable. To my daughters, Alyssa and Bethany, and my granddaughters, Grace and Faith, thank you for helping me understand that life is precious and that learning is lifelong and presented in many ways. Thank you to Dr. William Benet, my dissertation committee chair. His constant encouragement and valuable insight made each revision better than the previous one. I would also like to thank my other committee member and methods expert, Dr. Augusto Ferreros, for his invaluable expertise and his patience in guiding me to understand better the best path through the data was invaluable. To Dr. Mark DeVirgilio, university research reviewer, thank you for your invaluable, honest, and constructive criticism which made the study better. To retired University of Maine professor Dr. Edward Laverty, thank you for planting the seed in my mind that I was capable of the work necessary to earn a terminal degree. Table of Contents List of Tables .......................................................................................................................v List of Figures .................................................................................................................... vi Chapter 1: Introduction to the Study ....................................................................................1 Introduction ....................................................................................................................1 Background ....................................................................................................................1 Problem Statement .........................................................................................................2 Purpose of the Study ......................................................................................................3 Research Questions and Hypotheses .............................................................................4 Theoretical Framework ..................................................................................................7 Nature of Study ..............................................................................................................7 Definitions......................................................................................................................8 Assumptions .................................................................................................................10 Scope and Delimitations ..............................................................................................10 Limitations ...................................................................................................................11 Significance..................................................................................................................11 Summary ......................................................................................................................12 Chapter 2: Literature Review .............................................................................................13 Introduction ..................................................................................................................13 Literature Search Strategy............................................................................................14 Theoretical Framework ................................................................................................16 Social Justice ......................................................................................................... 16 i Two Models of Criminal Process ......................................................................... 17 History of the Criminal Justice System in the United States .......................................21 Colonial ................................................................................................................. 21 Developing the System ......................................................................................... 23 Modern Era ........................................................................................................... 29 Political Impact of the Criminal Process .....................................................................30 Criminal Justice Policy ......................................................................................... 32 Charging and Decision making within the Judicial System ........................................39 Predictors of Conviction: .............................................................................................42 Time to Disposition............................................................................................... 42 Counsel ................................................................................................................. 43 Fact Witness .......................................................................................................... 46 Expert Witness ...................................................................................................... 46 Predictors of Conviction: Control Variables................................................................52 Age ................................................................................................................... 52 Race ..................................................................................................................
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