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Crime and Justice in the United States and in England and Wales, 1981-96

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Crime and Justice in the United States and in England and Wales, 1981-96 U.S. Department of Justice Office of Justice Programs Bureau of Justice Statistics Crime and Justice in the United States and in England and Wales, 1981-96 In 1995 victim surveys, crime rates for robbery, assault, burglary, and motor vehicle theft are higher in England (including Wales) than in the United States. Survey crime rate per 1,000 population SurveyRobbery: crime Survey rate percrime 1,000 rate population per 1,000 population Assault: Survey crime rate per 1,000 population 8 21 Robbery Assault 18 United States England 6 15 12 4 England 9 United States 6 2 3 0 0 1981 1986 1991 1996 1981 1986 1991 1996 Burglary: Survey crime rate Motor vehicle theft: Survey crime rate Surveyper 1,000 crime households rate per 1,000 households Surveyper 1,000 crime households rate per 1,000 households 120 30 Burglary Motor vehicle theft 100 England United States 80 20 60 England 40 10 United States 20 0 0 1981 1986 1991 1996 1981 1986 1991 1996 U.S. Department of Justice Office of Justice Programs Bureau of Justice Statistics Crime and Justice in the United States and in England and Wales, 1981-96 By Patrick A. Langan, Ph.D. BJS Statistician and David P. Farrington, Ph.D. BJS Visiting Fellow, University of Cambridge October 1998, NCJ 169284 Contents U.S. Department of Justice Highlights iii Bureau of Justice Statistics Crime rates from victim surveys 1 Crime rates from police records 4 Jan M. Chaiken, Ph.D. Reporting of crime to police 7 Director Police recording of crime 10 Victim surveys versus police records 12 Patrick A. Langan, Ph.D., BJS Statisti- Convictions per 1,000 population 14 cian, and David P. Farrington, Ph.D., Convictions per 1,000 offenders 17 BJS Visiting Fellow and University of Percent sentenced to incarceration 21 Cambridge, wrote this report. Jeffry Incarcerations per 1,000 population 24 Anderson, Margaret Ayres, Gordon Incarcerations per 1,000 offenders 27 Barclay, Allen Beck, Sharon Birch, Jeff Incarceration sentence length 30 Butts, Billy Burns, Robyn Cohen, Time served 32 Patrick Collier, Judy Egger, Pat Percent of sentence served 34 Mayhew, Catriona Mirrlees-Black, Days at risk of serving 36 Chris Nuttall, Andrew Percy, Craig Justice system’s impact on crime 38 Perkins, Michael Rand, Bill Sabol, Justice system changes 41 Reese Satin, Howard Snyder, Roger Racial disparities in incarceration 44 Stevens, and Doris Wilson provided Methodology 45 data. David Levin verified the report. Comparability 45 Rhonda Keith and Tom Hester International crime victim surveys 47 produced the report. Marilyn Sources of American data 50 Marbrook, assisted by Yvonne Boston American survey offenses 50 and Jayne Robinson, produced the American police-recorded offenses 50 final publication. American convictions 51 American probability of incarceration 53 American sentence length, time served, and days at risk of serving 54 American homicide 56 An American offender’s probability of arrest, and an arrested offender’s probability of conviction 56 Racial disparities in American incarceration rates 57 Sources of English data 58 English survey offenses 58 English police-recorded offenses 58 English convictions 58 English probability of incarceration 59 English sentence length, time served, and days at risk of serving 59 English homicide 59 Racial disparities in English incarceration rates 60 Prior research 60 Notes on figures 1-82 61 References 64 Appendix 1: Data used in figures 1-82 67 Appendix 2: U.S. and English-Welsh databases for the study 81 ii Crime and Justice in the United States and in England and Wales, 1981-96 Highlights Whether measured by surveys of Firearms are more often involved in the English assault rate as measured crime victims or by police statistics, violent crimes in the United States than in the victim survey was slightly higher serious crime rates are not generally in England. According to 1996 police than America's in 1981, but in 1995 the higher in the United States than statistics, firearms were used in 68% English assault rate was more than England. (All references to England of U.S. murders but 7% of English double America's (figure 2) include Wales.) According to 1995 murders, and 41% of U.S. robberies but victim surveys — which measure 5% of English robberies. the U.S. burglary rate as measured in robbery, assault, burglary, and motor the victim survey was more than double vehicle theft — crime rates are all Since 1981, an offender's risk of being England's in 1981, but in 1995 the higher in England than the United caught, convicted, and sentenced to English burglary rate was nearly double States (figures 1-4 of the report begin- incarceration has risen in the United America's (below, and figure 3 of the ning on page 1). According to latest States for all six measured crimes report) (1996) police statistics — which (murder, rape, robbery, assault, Burglary: Survey crime rate measure incidents reported to police of burglary, motor vehicle theft) but has per 1,000 households murder, rape, robbery, assault, fallen in England for all but murder 120 burglary, and motor vehicle theft — (figures 43-48). 100 crime rates are higher in England for three crimes: assault, burglary, and U.S. crime rates — whether mea- 80 United States motor vehicle theft (figures 5-10). The sured by surveys of crime victims or by 60 1996 crime rate for a fourth crime police statistics — generally fell in the England (robbery) would have been higher in early 1980's, rose thereafter until 40 England than the United States had around 1993, and then fell again 20 English police recorded the same (figures 1-10). For most U.S. crimes 0 fraction of robberies that came to their (survey estimated assault, burglary, 1981 1986 1991 1996 attention as American police (figure 15). and motor vehicle theft; police-recorded murder, robbery, and burglary), the the English motor vehicle theft rate as The major exception to the pattern of latest crime rates (1996) are the lowest measured in the victim survey was 1.5 higher crime rates in England is the recorded in the 16-year period from times America's in 1981, but in 1995 murder rate. The 1996 U.S. murder 1981 to 1996. By comparison, English the English rate for vehicle theft was rate is vastly higher (nearly six times) crime rates as measured in both victim more than double America's (figure 4) than England's, although the difference surveys and police statistics have all between the two countries has nar- risen since 1981. For half of the the U.S. murder rate as measured rowed over the past 16 years (below, measured English crime categories, the in police statistics was 8.7 times and figure 5 of the report). latest crime rates (1995 for rates from England's in 1981 but 5.7 times in victim surveys; 1996 for rates from 1996 (figure 5) Murder: Police-recorded crime rate police statistics) are the highest per 1,000 population the U.S. rape rate as measured in 0.10 recorded since 1981 (figures 1-10). police statistics was 17 times England's 0.08 in 1981 but 3 times in 1996 (figure 6) United States As a result of different crime trends in 0.06 the two countries — the U.S. robbery rate as measured in 0.04 the U.S. robbery rate as measured in police statistics was 6 times England's the victim survey was nearly double in 1981 but 1.4 times in 1996 (figure 7) 0.02 England England's in 1981, but in 1995 the 0.00 English robbery rate was 1.4 times 1981 1986 1991 1996 America's (figure 1) Highlights iii the U.S. assault rate as measured and convicted (below, and figures the fraction of the sentence served in police statistics was 1.5 times 25-30 of the report) before release is generally about the England's in 1981, but in 1996 the same in the United States and England English assault rate was slightly Rape convictions per 1,000 alleged rapists (figures 61-66). higher than America's (figure 8) 300 England Since 1981 — the U.S. burglary rate as measured in police statistics was slightly higher than 200 an offender's risk of being caught, England's in 1981, but in 1996 the convicted, and incarcerated has been English burglary rate was more than rising in the United States but falling in 100 double America's (below, and figure 9 United States England (below, and figures 43-48 of of the report) the report) 0 Burglary: Police-recorded crime rate 1981 1986 1991 1995 per 1,000 population Number of incarcerated motor vehicle thieves per 1,000 alleged vehicle thieves 30 15 courts in the United States are gener- ally more likely to sentence a convicted United States 20 England offender to incarceration (for robbery, 10 assault, burglary, and motor vehicle United States theft, but not murder or rape) than 10 5 courts in England (figures 31-36) England 0 for all offenses (murder, rape, 0 1981 1986 1991 1996 robbery, assault, burglary, motor 1981 1986 1991 1995 vehicle theft), courts in the United the English motor vehicle theft rate as States sentence convicted offenders to sentences for serious crime generally measured in police statistics went from longer periods of incarceration than have not been getting longer in the 1.4 times America's in 1981 to nearly 2 courts in England (below, and figures United States, while in England times in 1996 (figure 10). 49-54 of the report) sentences generally have been getting longer for violent crimes (figures 49-54) According to statistics on the criminal Average incarceration sentence imposed on justice systems in the two countries convicted murderers, in months 288 in general, the length of time in (1994 in the United States; 1995 United States confinement
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