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January-March 2017 January-March For DEFENCE AN DEFENCE AND D DIPLOMACY DIPLOMACY IN PURSUIT OF NATIONAL SECURITY VOL. 6 NO. 2 ISSn 2347 - 3703 january-march 2017 • We Need A ‘Think Through’ Strategy Against Pakistan’s Proxy War in j&K Syed Ata Hasnain • russian Discourse on uS nuclear arms reduction Proposal Arun Mohanty Vol. 6 no. 2 • january-march 2017 2 • january-march 6 no. Vol. • The Trajectory of china’s aviation Industry Manmohan Bahadur • Prospects of china-united States relations under Trump’s administration Sana Hashmi • china’s Pragmatic alignment with West asia Anu Sharma • India-china Energy cooperation: a Possibility for rapprochement Temjenmeren Ao • assessing the Impact of Beijing’s militarisation in the South china Sea on aSEan relations Pooja Bhatt • operation mekong: china Deals with Barriers to Embrace the mekong river Puyam Rakesh Singh • al Qaeda: assessing the “Phenomenon” Radhika Halder • India’s role in the changing Geopolitical Scenario in the Ior RA Maslekar Book Review JOURNAL OF THE CENTRE FOR AIR POWER STUDIES DEFENCE AND DIPLOMACY IN PURSUIT OF NATIONAL SECURITY VOL. 6 NO. 2 l JANUARY-MARCH 2017 CENTRE FOR AIR POWER STUDIES VISION To be an independent centre of excellence on national security contributing informed and considered research and analyses on relevant issues. MISSION To encourage independent and informed research and analyses on issues of relevance to national security and to create a pool of domain experts to provide considered inputs to decision-makers. Also, to foster informed public debate and opinion on relevant issues and to engage with other think-tanks and stakeholders within India and abroad to provide an Indian perspective. DEFENCE AND DIPLOMACY CENTRE FOR AIR POWER STUDIES New Delhi DEFENCE AND DIPLOMACY is published quarterly by the Forum for National Security Studies for Centre for Air Power Studies, New Delhi. Board of Trustees Shri M.K. Rasgotra, former Foreign Secretary Chairman Dr Sanjaya Baru, Honorary Senior Fellow, Centre for Policy Research, Members Former Editor in Chief, Business Standard, former Media Adviser to PM Air Marshal Bharat Kumar PVSM AVSM (Retd) Air Marshal Vinod Patney SYSM PVSM AVSM VrC (Retd), former Vice Chief of the Air Staff H.E. N.N. Vohra, Governor J&K, former Principal Secretary to the Prime Minister, former Defence Secretary, former Home Secretary. (on leave) Air Marshal BS Dhanoa AVSM YSM VM ADC (Ex-Officio) Secretary Defence (Finance), Ministry of Defence (Ex-officio) Captain Ajay Singh, Vice President, Jet Lite Airways, Member and Managing Trustee former Deputy Director Air Defence, Air HQ DEFENCE AND DIPLOMACY Journal welcomes research articles on defence, military affairs and strategy (especially air power and space issues) of contemporary and historical interest. Articles in the Journal reflect the views and conclusions of the authors and not necessarily the opinions or policy of the Centre or any other institution. Editor-in-Chief Air Marshal Vinod Patney, SYSM PVSM AVSM VrC, (Retd) Editor Dr Shalini Chawla Distributor KW Publishers Pvt. Ltd. All correspondence may be addressed to Editor-in-Chief DEFENCE AND DIPLOMACY Arjan Path, Subroto Park, New Delhi 110 010 Telephone: (91.11) 25699131-32 Fax: (91.11) 25682533 e-mail: [email protected] [email protected] website: www.capsindia.org © Centre for Air Power Studies All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording or by any information storage and retrieval system without permission from the Director, Centre for Air Power Studies, New Delhi DEFENCE AND DIPLOMACY Journal is published four times a year and is distributed by KW Publishers Pvt. Ltd. 4676/21, First Floor, Ansari Road, Daryaganj, New Delhi 110 002 Telefax: 23263498 e-mail: [email protected] Printed and Published by Air Marshal Vinod Patney (Retd) on behalf of the Forum for National Security Studies (the Trust running the Centre for Air Power Studies, New Delhi) and Printed by Nutech Photolithographers, B-240, Okhla Industrial Area, Phase-I, New Delhi 110020 and Published at P-284, Arjan Path, Subroto Park, New Delhi 110 010. Editor: Air Marshal Vinod Patney (Retd). Subscription Rates India ` 250.00 (single issue) ` 900.00 (4 issues) Overseas US$ 40.00 (single issue) US$ 140.00 (4 issues) RNI NO. DELENG/2012/41043 ISSN 2347 - 3703 CONTENTS Editor’s Note V 1. We Need A ‘Think Through’ Strategy Against Pakistan’s Proxy War in J&K 1 Syed Ata Hasnain 2. Russian Discourse on US Nuclear Arms Reduction Proposal 9 Arun Mohanty 3. The Trajectory of China’s Aviation Industry 23 Manmohan Bahadur 4. Prospects of China- United States Relations under Trump’s Administration 35 Sana Hashmi 5. China’s Pragmatic Alignment with West Asia 45 Anu Sharma 6. India-China Energy Cooperation: A Possibility for Rapprochement 61 Temjenmeren Ao 7. Assessing the Impact of Beijing’s Militarisation in the South China Sea on ASEAN Relations 73 Pooja Bhatt III Defence and Diplomacy Journal Vol. 6 No. 2 2017 (January-March) CONTENTS 8. Operation Mekong: China Deals with Barriers to Embrace the Mekong River 87 Puyam Rakesh Singh 9. Al Qaeda: Assessing the “Phenomenon” 99 Radhika Halder 10. India’s Role in the Changing Geopolitical Scenario in the IOR 113 R A Maslekar Book Review Creating a New Medina: State Power, Islam and the Quest for Pakistan in Colonial North India 127 Aersh Danish Defence and Diplomacy Journal Vol. 6 No. 2 2017 (January-March) IV Editor’s NotE The first three months of the year have been eventful and it is all too evident that in the coming months and, may be, even years, international relations will remain in a state of flux. There is palpable excitement in the air as to what will President Trump do next. BREXIT presents its own problems and the rise of China has been accepted as a fait accompli. A telling example of the latter is the statement of the Philippines President Duterte that he does not have the military power to challenge China’s moves in the South China Sea, notwithstanding the unequivocal award of the Permanent Court of Arbitration in favour of the Philippines. There are many issues demanding the attention of our readers but, perforce, we have to be selective in the articles we publish. Unfortunately, our abiding interest in Pakistan will not flag. Our lead article by Lt Gen Syed Ata Hasnain attempts to formulate a strategy against the proxy war that Pakistan continues to wage against us in Jammu and Kashmir. The author knows the area well and his views are often compelling. He feels that Pakistan will never get over the ignominy of the defeat in 1971. We must recognise this and should formulate and adopt a long-term plan. The Parliament resolution of 1994 stating unequivocally that the entire state of Jammu and Kashmir is a part of India requires frequent mention in our deliberations on the subject in India and abroad. With President Trump asserting that he intends to strengthen the US nuclear forces, the chances of a new arms reduction treaty coming into force are bleak. Professor Arun Mohanty argues that in the face of an increasing conventional threat against Russia, she is loath to enter into an unequal treaty. Russia sees the nuclear weapon as a deterrent whereas the US often sees it as a burden that is becoming increasingly V Defence and Diplomacy Journal Vol. 6 No. 2 2017 (January-March) Editor’s NOTE expensive to maintain. Russia has to be realistic and has to maintain a strong military capability that includes nuclear weapons. She also has to consider the link between offensive and defensive weapons and President Trump’s penchant for a rapid change of strategy. The next six articles are about different facets of the China story. Air Vice Mshl Manmohan Bahadur looks at China’s aviation industry. What is the nature of the People’s Liberation Army Air Force’s (PLAAF’s) modernisation? Is the J-20 a game changer? Undoubtedly, China is advancing rapidly but her capabilities still fall short of levels where she can pose a serious challenge to us. We have to ensure that the gulf in capabilities is maintained. Strategic analysts and China watchers will continue to view the rise of the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) but unless they have an aircraft carrier with a catapult assisted take-off system on board, the Chinese capability beyond their immediate waters will be less than threatening. Sana Hashmi takes head on the prospects of US-China relations in the Trump Administration. She suggests that with the near immediate withdrawal by the US from the Trans-Pacific Partnership post President Trump’s assumption of office, a sea-change could be in the offing. The mercurial nature of the president came to light when soon after the historic telephonic conversation with President Tsai Ing Wang of Taiwan that suggested a possible policy change, he soon thereafter stood by the earlier One-China policy. Yet he has referred to China as a currency manipulator and is against Chinese activities in the South China Sea. Increasing competition between China and the US is on the cards. The abundance of oil in the West Asia region has naturally attracted China. Anu Sharma states that China could play a more assertive role in the region but has to cater to the Russian presence as well. China is apprehensive about the rise of the Islamic State in Syria and Iraq (ISIS) and its possible spillover into areas of her interest but has adroitly avoided playing an assertive role in the area, particularly as the One Belt One Road (OBOR) passes through Central Asia and onto West Asia.
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