IPC ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY ANALYSIS REPUBLIC OF Projection update February – March 2021 Issued in March 2021 IMPACT OF COVID-19, FLOODING AND PEST INFESTATIONS DRIVING ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY SITUATION IN ZAMBIA 1 - Minimal PROJECTION UPDATE FEBRUARY - MARCH 2021 Projection Update February - March 20212 - Stressed Phase 5 0 3 - Crisis People in Catastrophe 4 - Emergency 1.73M Phase 4 239,000 5 - Famine People in Emergency 25% of the population Areas with inadequate evidence Phase 3 1,485,000 People facing high levels People in Crisis Areas not analysed of acute food insecurity Map Symbols (IPC Phase 3+) Phase 2 2,514,000 People in Stressed Urban settlement classification IN NEED OF URGENT Phase 1 2,622,000 IDPs/other settlements ACTION People in food classification security Area receives significant humanitarian food assistance Overview (accounted for in Phase classification) Area receives significant 1 - Minimal Areas with inadequate> 25% evidence of households meet 25-50% According to the acute food insecurity analysis update in humanitarian food assistance 2 - Stressed Areas not analysed of caloric needs(accounted through for inassistance Phase classification) Zambia for the February-March 2021 projection period, Key for the Map 3 - Crisis Map Symbols > 25% of households> 25% meet of households > 50% meet 25-50% an estimated 1.73 million people (25% of the analysed Urban settlement of caloric needs throughof caloric assistance needs through assistance IPC Acute Food Insecurity4 - Emergency Phaseclassification Classification population) are likely to face high levels of acute food IDPs/otherArea settlements receives significant > 25% of households meet > 50% 1 - Minimal Areas5 - F withamine inadequate evidenceclassificationEvidence Level insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above). This includes around 1.5 humanitarian food assistance of caloric needs through assistance 2 -1 S - tMressedinimal AreasAreas not with analysed inadequate evidence (accountedArea* receivesAcceptable for in Phase significant classification) humanitarianMedium food assistance million people in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and around 240,000 Map Symbols ** 3 -2 C - rSisistressed Areas not analysed ***(accounted> 25%High for of in householdsPhase classification) meet 25-50% people in Emergency (IPC Phase 4), who will require Urban settlement of Scarcecaloric needs evidence through due assistance to limited or 4 -3 Emergency - Crisis Map classificationSymbols > 25% of households meet 25-50% Urban settlement noof caloric humanitarian needs through access assistance urgent humanitarian action to reduce food gaps, protect IDPs/other settlements > 25% of households meet > 50% 5 -4 F -amine Emergency classificationclassification of caloric needs through assistance and restore livelihoods. IDPs/other settlements > 25% of households meet > 50% 5 - Famine classification of caloric needs through assistance The projection period coincides with the lean season in Zambia when most households rely on the market for food whilst poor households rely on casual labour opportunities for food and income. The impact of COVID-19 as well as dry spells and flooding in selected areas have reduced the capacity of these households to access food. Other factors that have affected these households include above average commodity prices and pests, such as the African Migratory Locusts. However, due to the fair performance of the season in some areas, it is anticipated that households will rely on the pre- mature harvesting of crops as well as greens for both consumption and income sources. Out of the 64 districts analysed, 53 are classified in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and 11 in Stressed (IPC Phase 2).

Key Drivers Prices and price shocks Prices for maize grain, local rice, groundnuts and dried beans have remained above average or have been increasing. The increase in retail prices on main food commodities is attributed to low supply to meet the demand for commodities, flooding and the COVID-19 pandemic.

Rainfall performance and floods The season is forecasted to be normal to above normal. Flooding along the water basins and waterlogging as well as flash floods in some places and fields in flood-prone areas has been widespread during this season.

Impact of COVID-19 The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic affected all sectors of the economy in the country and has compounded the situation in the districts already affected by shocks such as floods and increasing prices. COVID-19 has resulted in job losses, with the most affected sectors being the tourism industry, trade, transport and agriculture.

Pests There were some reports of pest infestation such as African Migratory Locusts in the Southern and Western provinces of the country, which affected vegetation for livestock grazing and crop production, especially maize. The Government has sprayed the affected fields, however, if left uncontrolled, this might have a negative effect on production. REPUBLIC OF ZAMBIA | IPC ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY ANALYSIS 2

IPC ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY PROJECTION UPDATE SITUATION OVERVIEW (FEBRUARY – MARCH 2021)

The analysis update period coincides with the lean season in Zambia, when the Key Assumptions for the food security situation is expected to be worse compared to other months in the projection period country’s consumption year. During this period, most households rely on markets for food whilst poor households rely on casual labour opportunities for food and Food Availability: Food availability for commodities including maize grain are income. expected to remain normal and above Between February and March 2021, it is projected that about 1.73 million people normal in both deficit and surplus areas will be facing high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above) during this across markets. period. The 2020/2021 rainfall season, which coincides with the projected period, Food Prices: Maize prices are expected has been forecasted to be normal to above normal in most parts of the country. to trend at levels above five-year average prices throughout the projected period. Flooding, however, is expected to increase, thereby affecting households that live in flood-prone areas in the North, North Eastern and Southern parts of the country. Informal Cross-Border Trade: Informal cross-border inflows, especially into Malawi, COVID-19 will continue to pose risks to areas close to main urban areas, as cases Mozambique, DR Congo and Tanzania are increase throughout the country. A number of districts thrive on business where expected to be at normal levels, despite traders come to buy crops and bring in what is not locally produced and residents COVID-19-related border restrictions. go out to sell crops and buy what is not locally produced, but with the coming of Labour Opportunities and Migration: COVID-19 and the restrictions in movements, travel modes significantly affected Labour opportunities and wages for poorer food security. households are expected to be lower than average due to the impacts of COVID-19. With the start of the 2020/2021 agriculture season, locust swarm movements have Seasonal Forecast and Flooding Potential: to be monitored to ensure the provision of early warning information to farmers The Climate Prediction Centre (CPC) and along the Zambezi River. Food prices are expected to continue to rise above five- the International Research Institute for year average prices throughout the projected period as the effects of inflation sets Climate and Society (IRI) forecasts a normal in. The high prices are expected to reduce household access to food. to above normal 2020/2021 rainfall in most areas across the country. This has resulted in As of 30th November 2020, the 2020/2021 rain season had started in most parts Southern areas of the country experiencing of Zambia except for a few areas over Eastern and Provinces. There was flooding in the projection period. an early onset in the North Western and Provinces, including parts of COVID-19 Impact: Agricultural labour Copperbelt and Northern Provinces, by the second dekad (11 – 20th) of October opportunities and other economic 2020. However, most parts of Zambia had a slightly late onset by the second dekad parameters are likely to be below normal at the national level due to the impacts of the (11 – 20th) of November 2020. Eastern Province, along with parts of Muchinga and COVID-19 pandemic. Lusaka Provinces, also had a late onset in the third dekad of November 2020. On the Inflation: This is assumed to remain other hand, areas around the district, including some few parts of Mpika, manageable throughout the projection had not yet received effective rainfall by the end of the third dekad of November period. 2020. The cumulative rainfall performance since the start of the 2020/2021 rainfall season (1st July 2020 to 31st January 2021), indicates that and have recorded the highest cumulative amounts of 1,159 mm and 1,007 mm respectively. In general, most areas in Zambia received above average rainfall during the onset. However, most parts of Eastern Province, including areas over Luapula (, , ), Northern (Nsama, , Mungwi, Senga Hill), Muchinga (, Mpika, , , Chama), Southern (Chikankata, Siavonga, Sinazongwe, Gwembe), Western (Sesheke, , Mulobezi), and Lusaka (Luangwa) Provinces had received below normal rainfall of less than 500 mm. From meteorological station observations, Magoye had received 482 mm, with Choma and () receiving 378 mm and 361 mm respectively, which similarly were below average. Following the release of the report in the last quarter of 2020, a few areas received some humanitarian food assistance but the levels were low and generally not able to meet the calorific needs of the households. The districts that had humanitarian assistance were mainly in the Southern Province, which conventionally are dry districts and receive relatively low rainfall amounts. REPUBLIC OF ZAMBIA | IPC ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY ANALYSIS 3 1 - Minimal 2 - Stressed IPC ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY PROJECTION UPDATE MAP AND 3 - Crisis POPULATION TABLE (FEBRUARY – MARCH 2021) 4 - Emergency 5 - Famine

Areas with inadequate evidence

Key forAreas the not Mapanalysed

IPCMap Acute Symbols Food InsecurityUrban settlement classification Phase1 - MClassificationinimal IDPs/other settlements 12 -classification MStinimalressed Area 23receives - SCtrrisisessed significant humanitarian food assistance (accounted34 - CEmergency rforisis in Phase classification) 45 -> EmergencyF25%amine of households meet 25-50% of caloric needs through assistance 5Areas - Famine with inadequate evidence > 25% of households meet > 50% Areasof caloric withnot analysed inadequate needs through evidence assistance

MapEvidence SymbolsAreas Level not analysed Acceptable Map* SymbolsUrban settlement ** classificationMedium *** UrbanHigh settlement classificationIDPs/otherScarce evidence settlements due to limited or classificationno humanitarian access IDPs/other settlements Area receivesclassification significant humanitarian food assistance Area(accounted receives for in Phasesignificant classification) humanitarian food assistance (accounted> 25% for in of Phase households classification) meet 25-50% of caloric needs through assistance > 25% of households meet 25-50% of > caloric25% of needs households through meet assistance > 50% of caloric needs through assistance > 25% of households meet > 50% Evidenceof Levelcaloric needs through assistance Evidence* Acceptable Level ** Medium **** AcceptableHigh ** MediumScarce evidence due to limited or *** Highno humanitarian access Scarce evidence due to limited or Provincial population table for the projection update: February – March 2021 no humanitarian access

Province Rural Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 4 Phase 5 Phase 3 + Population #people % #people % #people % #people % #people % #people % Central 433,454 216,727 50 148,262 34 68,465 16 0 0 0 0 68,465 16 Copperbelt 138,643 69,322 50 48,525 35 20,796 15 0 0 0 0 20,796 15 Eastern 966,312 417,659 43 321,968 33 184,046 19 42,639 4 0 0 226,685 23 Luapula 959,047 404,336 42 338,720 35 193,951 20 22,040 2 0 0 215,991 22 Lusaka 113,941 40,060 35 43,557 38 28,485 25 1,839 2 0 0 30,324 27 Muchinga 965,356 435,853 45 314,541 33 175,962 18 24,014 2 0 0 199,976 20 North-Western 329,746 81,426 25 175,644 53 64,938 20 7,738 2 0 0 72,676 22 Northern 1,548,223 538,774 35 564,230 36 366,210 24 79,009 5 0 0 445,219 29 Southern 707,781 255,661 36 265,129 37 156,561 22 22,600 3 0 0 179,161 25 Western 727,313 161,997 22 293,184 40 225,915 31 39,034 5 0 0 264,949 36 Total 6,889,816 2,621,815 38 2,513,759 36 1,485,331 22 238,912 3 0 0 1,724,243 25

Note: A population in Phase 3+ does not necessarily reflect the full population in need of urgent action. This is because some households may be in Phase 2 or even 1 but only because of receipt of assistance, and thus, they may be in need of continued action. REPUBLIC OF ZAMBIA | IPC ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY ANALYSIS 4

Comparison of the February - March 2021 projection update with the October 2020 - March 2021 projection from the August 2020 analysis

Comparative analysis of population in IPC Phase 3 and 4 (February 2021 Update and August 2020 Analysis)

2,000,000 1,800,000 1,600,000 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000,000 80,000 Number of people 600,000 400,000 200,000 0 IPC Phase 3 IPC Phase 4 IPC Phase IPC Phase 3 IPC Phase 4 IPC Phase Crisis Emergency 3+ Crisis Emergency 3+

February 2021 Projection Update August 2020 Analysis

During the Acute Food Insecurity Analysis update, the focus was on all the areas which were analysed in the IPC annual analysis in August 2020, covering 64 districts in ten provinces. During this projection update, there were improvements in a few districts due to a re-analysis of the ZVAC 2020 outcome data and new contributing factors including: the perfor- mance of the season, the COVID-19 pandemic and crop cultivation data (green harvest). Notable among them was the movement by Lunga District from IPC Phase 4 (Emergency) to IPC Phase 3 (Crisis). Another six districts moved from IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) to IPC Phase 2 (stressed). The other districts remained in the same phases with a slight reduction of the population in IPC Phase 3 or above. Regarding severity, the percentage of the population that was in IPC Phase 3 or above declined from 29% in the 2020 projected population estimates to 26% in the update. This may be attributed to the fair performance of the season in most areas, compared to previous assumptions. The population likely to face high levels of acute food insecurity declined from 1.97 to 1.73 million.

1 - Minimal Projection Update February - March 2021 Projection October 2020 - March 2021 2 - Stressed 3 - Crisis 4 - Emergency 5 - Famine

Areas with inadequate evidence

Areas not analysed

Map Symbols Urban settlement classification IDPs/other settlements classification

Area receives significant humanitarian food assistance (accounted for in Phase classification) 1 - Minimal Areas with inadequate evidence Area receives significant > 25% of householdshumanitarian meet food 25-50% assistance 2 - Stressed Areas not analysed of caloric needs(accounted through for inassistance Phase classification) Key for the Map 3 - Crisis Map Symbols > 25% of households> 25% meet of households > 50% meet 25-50% Urban settlement of caloric needs throughof caloric assistance needs through assistance IPC Acute Food Insecurity4 - Emergency Phaseclassification Classification IDPs/otherArea settlements receives significant > 25% of households meet > 50% 1 - Minimal Areas5 - F withamine inadequate evidence Evidence Level classificationhumanitarian food assistance of caloric needs through assistance 2 -1 S - tMressedinimal AreasAreas not with analysed inadequate evidence (accountedArea* receivesAcceptable for in Phase significant classification) humanitarianMedium food assistance Map Symbols ** 3 -2 C - rSisistressed Areas not analysed ***(accounted> 25%High for of in householdsPhase classification) meet 25-50% Urban settlement of Scarcecaloric needs evidence through due assistance to limited or 4 -3 Emergency - Crisis Map classificationSymbols > 25% of households meet 25-50% Urban settlement noof caloric humanitarian needs through access assistance IDPs/other settlements > 25% of households meet > 50% 5 -4 F -amine Emergency classificationclassification of caloric needs through assistance IDPs/other settlements > 25% of households meet > 50% 5 - Famine classification of caloric needs through assistance REPUBLIC OF ZAMBIA | IPC ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY ANALYSIS 5

RECOMMENDATIONS FOR ACTION

Response Priorities The following response priorities are proposed: • Urgent action is required to save lives, reduce food consumption gaps and protect livelihoods for populations, especially those in IPC Phase 3 or above. • Reduce food consumption gaps by improving access to food through appropriate modalities for households in deficit areas. • Promote resilience/climate-smart agricultural production. • Strengthen transboundary pest early warning and surveillance systems. • Monitor the impact of COVID-19 and strengthen prevention measures. • Ensure the country’s nutrition situation is monitored. • Strengthen livestock disease surveillance systems in all areas. • Promote livelihood reconstruction and diversification. • Provide water for both domestic and livestock use.

Situation Monitoring and Update of Activities The key factors to monitor include: • Prices for staple commodities • Informal cross-border food trade • The impact of COVID-19 on food security • Inflation and its impact on the Zambian • Rainfall patterns • African Migratory Locust infestations • Flooding in northern districts REPUBLIC OF ZAMBIA | IPC ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY ANALYSIS 6

PROCESS, METHODOLOGY AND LIMITATIONS

Process and Methodology What is the IPC and IPC Acute Food Insecurity? The Zambia Vulnerability Assessment Committee (ZVAC) carried out an IPC update and lessons learnt exercise to review and ascertain the figures The IPC is a set of tools and of the 2020/ 2021 In-depth Assessment Results. The review focused on the procedures to classify the severity projection period between February and March 2021. This was the first and characteristics of acute food and update undertaken by the ZVAC. This analysis included a re-analysis of ZVAC nutrition crises as well as chronic food 2020 outcome data along with new contributing factors. The re-analysis was insecurity based on international standards. The IPC consists of four prompted by some concerns on the analysis and data of previously used mutually reinforcing functions, ZVAC 2o2o outcome data. The re-analysis of this data was conducted with each with a set of specific protocols support from the IPC Global Support Unit (GSU) and regional VAC colleagues. (tools and procedures). The core IPC parameters include consensus The workshop participants were drawn from the ZVAC membership at building, convergence of evidence, national level and the Disaster Management and Mitigation Unit, Non- accountability, transparency and Governmental Organizations and the United Nations. The meeting was comparability. The IPC analysis aims facilitated by SADC RVAA and IPC GSU. at informing emergency response as well as medium and long-term food Due to the restrictions on physical meetings, the update was undertaken security policy and programming. both physically and virtually. New information was provided by stakeholders to support the update. Overall, data analysis was done using the IPC For the IPC, Acute Food Insecurity is protocols based on the IPC Technical Manual Version 3.0. The IPC Acute defined as any manifestation of food insecurity found in a specified area at Food Insecurity (AFI) Analysis workshop was a hybrid, including both virtual a specific point in time of a severity and face-to-face analysis. Analysts were split by provinces and in-country that threatens lives or livelihoods, or analysts were meeting face-to-face whilst those outside of Zambia provided both, regardless of the causes, context facilitation virtually. or duration. It is highly susceptible to change and can occur and manifest in Sources a population within a short amount of time, as a result of sudden changes or The main source of data was from the 2020 ZVAC Assessment, which provided shocks that negatively impact on the outcome as well as contributing factor evidence. Other sources of data determinants of food insecurity. included: The Disaster Management and Mitigation Unit under the Office of the Vice President with Rapid Assessment Reports on floods that have occurred in the country during the 2020/2021 rainfall season, the Ministry of Contact for further Information Agriculture with production data, the Zambia Meteorology Department with Sikaona, Lenganji climate data, the National Statistical Agency Office with price data and the IPC Technical Working Group Chair World Food Programme (WFP) with other food security reports. [email protected] IPC Global Support Unit www.ipcinfo.org Limitations of the analysis This analysis has been conducted under The main dataset, which is the 2020 ZVAC Survey, had to be re-analysed, the patronage of the Disaster Management which resulted in some indicators being discarded and some areas not and Mitigation Unit under the Office of the Vice President. It has benefited from the meeting sample size requirement. Due to the COVID-19 restrictions on data technical and financial support of SADC and collection, a limited amount of new information was available. the IPC GSU Classification of food insecurity and malnutrition was conducted using the IPC protocols, which are developed and implemented worldwide by the IPC Global Partnership - Action Against Hunger, CARE, CILSS, EC-JRC , FAO, FEWSNET, Global Food Security Cluster, Global Nutrition Cluster, IGAD, Oxfam, PROGRESAN-SICA, SADC, Save the Children, UNICEF and WFP.

IPC Analysis Partners: REPUBLIC OF ZAMBIA | IPC ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY ANALYSIS 7

ANNEX: Projection Update Population Table for February - March 2021

Province District Total Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 4 Phase 5 Area Phase 3+ population Phase analysed #people % #people % #people % #people % #people % #people %

Chitambo 65,922 32,961 50 23,073 35 9,888 15 0 0 0 0 2 9,888 15 Luano 34,469 17,235 50 8,617 25 8,617 25 0 0 0 0 3 8,617 25 Central Mkushi 174,023 87,012 50 60,908 35 26,103 15 0 0 0 0 2 26,103 15 159,040 79,520 50 55,664 35 23,856 15 0 0 0 0 2 23,856 15 Total 433,454 216,727 50 148,262 34 68,465 16 0 0 0 0 68,465 16 Chililabombwe 138,643 69,322 50 48,525 35 20,796 15 0 0 0 0 2 20,796 15 Copperbelt Total 138,643 69,322 50 48,525 35 20,796 15 0 0 0 0 20,796 15 133,299 53,320 40 39,990 30 33,325 25 6,665 5 0 0 3 39,990 30 125,138 62,569 50 25,028 20 31,285 25 6,257 5 0 0 3 37,542 30 Lundazi 174,020 95,711 55 43,505 25 26,103 15 8,701 5 0 0 3 34,804 20 Mambwe 92,034 36,814 40 32,212 35 18,407 20 4,602 5 0 0 3 23,009 25

Eastern 113,539 45,416 40 45,416 40 22,708 20 0 0 0 0 3 22,708 20 Petauke 168,264 58,892 35 75,719 45 25,240 15 8,413 5 0 0 3 33,653 20 100,475 35,166 35 45,214 45 15,071 15 5,024 5 0 0 3 20,095 20 59,543 29,772 50 14,886 25 11,909 20 2,977 5 0 0 3 14,886 25 Total 966,312 417,659 43 321,968 33 184,046 19 42,639 4 0 0 226,685 23 30,951 12,380 40 15,476 50 3,095 10 0 0 0 0 2 3,095 10 Chifunabuli 121,051 48,420 40 42,368 35 30,263 25 0 0 0 0 3 30,263 25 43,082 19,387 45 15,079 35 8,616 20 0 0 0 0 3 8,616 20 117,905 47,162 40 35,372 30 29,476 25 5,895 5 0 0 3 35,371 30 Lunga 31,759 11,116 35 7,940 25 7,940 25 4,764 15 0 0 3 12,704 40 Luapula Mansa 271,214 122,046 45 108,486 40 40,682 15 0 0 0 0 2 40,682 15 Milengi 57,336 31,535 55 11,467 20 11,467 20 2,867 5 0 0 3 14,334 25 Mwansabombwe 59,926 26,967 45 17,978 30 11,985 20 2,996 5 0 0 3 14,981 25 115,470 57,735 50 40,415 35 17,321 15 0 0 0 0 2 17,321 15 Samfya 110,353 27,588 25 44,141 40 33,106 30 5,518 5 0 0 3 38,624 35 Total 959,047 404,336 42 338,720 35 193,951 20 22,040 2 0 0 215,991 22 Luangwa 36,773 9,193 25 16,548 45 9,193 25 1,839 5 0 0 3 11,032 30 Lusaka 77,168 30,867 40 27,009 35 19,292 25 0 0 0 0 3 19,292 25 Total 113,941 40,060 35 43,557 38 28,485 25 1,839 2 0 0 30,324 27 Chama 163,843 81,922 50 49,153 30 24,576 15 0 0 0 0 2 24,576 15 Chinsali 136,764 68,382 50 41,029 30 20,515 15 6,838 5 0 0 3 27,353 20 Isoka 113,843 51,229 45 34,153 30 22,769 20 5,692 5 0 0 3 28,461 25 135,378 60,920 45 40,613 30 27,076 20 6,769 5 0 0 3 33,845 25 Muchinga Lavushimanda 41,120 18,504 45 14,392 35 8,224 20 0 0 0 0 3 8,224 20 Mpika 144,235 64,906 45 50,482 35 28,847 20 0 0 0 0 3 28,847 20 Nakonde 135,875 47,556 35 61,144 45 20,381 15 0 0 0 0 2 20,381 15 Shiwangandu 94,298 42,434 45 23,575 25 23,575 25 4,715 5 0 0 3 28,290 30 Total 965,356 435,853 45 314,541 33 175,962 18 24,014 2 0 0 199,976 20 47,012 14,104 30 18,805 40 11,753 25 2,351 5 0 0 3 14,104 30 Solwezi 174,981 34,996 20 113,738 65 26,247 15 0 0 0 0 2 26,247 15 North-Western Zambezi 107,753 32,326 30 43,101 40 26,938 25 5,388 5 0 0 3 32,326 30 Total 329,746 81,426 25 175,644 53 64,938 20 7,738 2 0 0 72,676 22 REPUBLIC OF ZAMBIA | IPC ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY ANALYSIS 8

Projection Update Population Table for February - March 2021(cont.)

Province District Total Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 4 Phase 5 Area Phase 3+ population Phase analysed #people % #people % #people % #people % #people % #people %

Chilubi 113,748 28,437 25 39,812 35 34,124 30 11,375 10 0 0 3 45,499 40 Kaputa 99,239 39,696 40 34,734 35 19,848 20 4,962 5 0 0 3 24,810 25 Kasama 324,564 129,826 40 113,597 35 64,913 20 16,228 5 0 0 3 81,141 25 district 85,374 29,881 35 29,881 35 21,344 25 4,269 5 0 0 3 25,613 30 106,873 37,406 35 32,062 30 32,062 30 5,344 5 0 0 3 37,406 35 Luwingu 64,124 19,237 30 25,650 40 12,825 20 6,412 10 0 0 3 19,237 30 Northern Mbala 145,923 65,665 45 58,369 40 21,888 15 0 0 0 0 2 21,888 15 53,014 18,555 35 18,555 35 13,254 25 2,651 5 0 0 3 15,905 30 137,310 34,328 25 54,924 40 41,193 30 6,866 5 0 0 3 48,059 35 Mungwi 211,491 63,447 30 74,022 35 63,447 30 10,575 5 0 0 3 74,022 35 Nsama 68,090 23,832 35 27,236 40 13,618 20 3,405 5 0 0 3 17,023 25 Senga hill 138,473 48,466 35 55,389 40 27,695 20 6,924 5 0 0 3 34,619 25 Total 1,548,223 538,774 35 564,230 36 366,210 24 79,009 5 0 0 445,219 29 Gwembe 79,406 23,822 30 31,762 40 19,852 25 3,970 5 0 0 3 23,822 30 Kazungula 156,596 39,149 25 62,638 40 39,149 25 7,830 5 0 0 3 46,979 30 Mazabuka 255,782 127,891 50 76,735 30 51,156 20 0 0 0 0 3 51,156 20 Southern Siavonga 64,101 19,230 30 25,640 40 16,025 25 3,205 5 0 0 3 19,230 30 Sinazongwe 151,896 45,569 30 68,353 45 30,379 20 7,595 5 0 0 3 37,974 25 Total 707,781 255,661 36 265,129 37 156,561 22 22,600 3 0 0 179,161 25 Kalabo 101,511 25,378 25 40,604 40 30,453 30 5,076 5 0 0 3 35,529 35 Limulunga 61,733 12,347 20 24,693 40 21,607 35 3,087 5 0 0 3 24,694 40 Lukulu 71,830 10,775 15 28,732 40 21,549 30 3,592 5 0 0 3 25,141 35 Mitete 33,418 5,013 15 16,709 50 10,025 30 1,671 5 0 0 3 11,696 35 Mongu 156,759 39,190 25 62,704 40 47,028 30 7,838 5 0 0 3 54,866 35 Mulobezi 37,090 14,836 40 12,982 35 7,418 20 1,855 5 0 0 3 9,273 25 Western Mwandi 30,487 9,146 30 10,670 35 9,146 30 1,524 5 0 0 3 10,670 35 Nalolo 67,607 20,282 30 23,662 35 20,282 30 3,380 5 0 0 3 23,662 35 Sesheke 53,358 8,004 15 21,343 40 18,675 35 5,336 10 0 0 3 24,011 45 Shangombo 61,829 9,274 15 27,823 45 21,640 35 3,091 5 0 0 3 24,731 40 Sioma 51,691 7,754 15 23,261 45 18,092 35 2,585 5 0 0 3 20,677 40 Total 727,313 161,997 22 293,184 40 225,915 31 39,034 5 0 0 264,949 36 Grand Total 6,889,816 2,621,815 38 2,513,759 36 1,485,331 22 238,912 3 0 0 1,724,243 25

Note: A population in Phase 3+ does not necessarily reflect the full population in need of urgent action. This is because some households may be in Phase 2 or even 1 but only because of receipt of assistance, and thus, they may be in need of continued action.