IPC ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY ANALYSIS REPUBLIC OF ZAMBIA Projection update February – March 2021 Issued in March 2021 IMPACT OF COVID-19, FLOODING AND PEST INFESTATIONS DRIVING ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY SITUATION IN ZAMBIA 1 - Minimal PROJECTION UPDATE FEBRUARY - MARCH 2021 Projection Update February - March 20212 - Stressed Phase 5 0 3 - Crisis People in Catastrophe 4 - Emergency 1.73M Phase 4 239,000 5 - Famine People in Emergency 25% of the population Areas with inadequate evidence Phase 3 1,485,000 People facing high levels People in Crisis Areas not analysed of acute food insecurity Map Symbols (IPC Phase 3+) Phase 2 2,514,000 People in Stressed Urban settlement classification IN NEED OF URGENT Phase 1 2,622,000 IDPs/other settlements ACTION People in food classification security Area receives significant humanitarian food assistance Overview (accounted for in Phase classification) Area receives significant 1 - Minimal Areas with inadequate> 25% evidence of households meet 25-50% According to the acute food insecurity analysis update in humanitarian food assistance 2 - Stressed Areas not analysed of caloric needs(accounted through for inassistance Phase classification) Zambia for the February-March 2021 projection period, Key for the Map 3 - Crisis Map Symbols > 25% of households> 25% meet of households > 50% meet 25-50% an estimated 1.73 million people (25% of the analysed Urban settlement of caloric needs throughof caloric assistance needs through assistance IPC Acute Food Insecurity4 - Emergency Phaseclassification Classification population) are likely to face high levels of acute food IDPs/otherArea settlements receives significant > 25% of households meet > 50% 1 - Minimal Areas5 - F withamine inadequate evidenceclassificationEvidence Level insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above). This includes around 1.5 humanitarian food assistance of caloric needs through assistance 2 -1 S - tMressedinimal AreasAreas not with analysed inadequate evidence (accountedArea* receivesAcceptable for in Phase significant classification) humanitarianMedium food assistance million people in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and around 240,000 Map Symbols ** 3 -2 C - rSisistressed Areas not analysed ***(accounted> 25%High for of in householdsPhase classification) meet 25-50% people in Emergency (IPC Phase 4), who will require Urban settlement of Scarcecaloric needs evidence through due assistance to limited or 4 -3 Emergency - Crisis Map classificationSymbols > 25% of households meet 25-50% Urban settlement noof caloric humanitarian needs through access assistance urgent humanitarian action to reduce food gaps, protect IDPs/other settlements > 25% of households meet > 50% 5 -4 F -amine Emergency classificationclassification of caloric needs through assistance and restore livelihoods. IDPs/other settlements > 25% of households meet > 50% 5 - Famine classification of caloric needs through assistance The projection period coincides with the lean season in Zambia when most households rely on the market for food whilst poor households rely on casual labour opportunities for food and income. The impact of COVID-19 as well as dry spells and flooding in selected areas have reduced the capacity of these households to access food. Other factors that have affected these households include above average commodity prices and pests, such as the African Migratory Locusts. However, due to the fair performance of the season in some areas, it is anticipated that households will rely on the pre- mature harvesting of crops as well as greens for both consumption and income sources. Out of the 64 districts analysed, 53 are classified in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and 11 in Stressed (IPC Phase 2). Key Drivers Prices and price shocks Prices for maize grain, local rice, groundnuts and dried beans have remained above average or have been increasing. The increase in retail prices on main food commodities is attributed to low supply to meet the demand for commodities, flooding and the COVID-19 pandemic. Rainfall performance and floods The season is forecasted to be normal to above normal. Flooding along the water basins and waterlogging as well as flash floods in some places and fields in flood-prone areas has been widespread during this season. Impact of COVID-19 The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic affected all sectors of the economy in the country and has compounded the situation in the districts already affected by shocks such as floods and increasing prices. COVID-19 has resulted in job losses, with the most affected sectors being the tourism industry, trade, transport and agriculture. Pests There were some reports of pest infestation such as African Migratory Locusts in the Southern and Western provinces of the country, which affected vegetation for livestock grazing and crop production, especially maize. The Government has sprayed the affected fields, however, if left uncontrolled, this might have a negative effect on production. REPUBLIC OF ZAMBIA | IPC ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY ANALYSIS 2 IPC ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY PROJECTION UPDATE SITUATION OVERVIEW (FEBRUARY – MARCH 2021) The analysis update period coincides with the lean season in Zambia, when the Key Assumptions for the food security situation is expected to be worse compared to other months in the projection period country’s consumption year. During this period, most households rely on markets for food whilst poor households rely on casual labour opportunities for food and Food Availability: Food availability for commodities including maize grain are income. expected to remain normal and above Between February and March 2021, it is projected that about 1.73 million people normal in both deficit and surplus areas will be facing high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above) during this across markets. period. The 2020/2021 rainfall season, which coincides with the projected period, Food Prices: Maize prices are expected has been forecasted to be normal to above normal in most parts of the country. to trend at levels above five-year average prices throughout the projected period. Flooding, however, is expected to increase, thereby affecting households that live in flood-prone areas in the North, North Eastern and Southern parts of the country. Informal Cross-Border Trade: Informal cross-border inflows, especially into Malawi, COVID-19 will continue to pose risks to areas close to main urban areas, as cases Mozambique, DR Congo and Tanzania are increase throughout the country. A number of districts thrive on business where expected to be at normal levels, despite traders come to buy crops and bring in what is not locally produced and residents COVID-19-related border restrictions. go out to sell crops and buy what is not locally produced, but with the coming of Labour Opportunities and Migration: COVID-19 and the restrictions in movements, travel modes significantly affected Labour opportunities and wages for poorer food security. households are expected to be lower than average due to the impacts of COVID-19. With the start of the 2020/2021 agriculture season, locust swarm movements have Seasonal Forecast and Flooding Potential: to be monitored to ensure the provision of early warning information to farmers The Climate Prediction Centre (CPC) and along the Zambezi River. Food prices are expected to continue to rise above five- the International Research Institute for year average prices throughout the projected period as the effects of inflation sets Climate and Society (IRI) forecasts a normal in. The high prices are expected to reduce household access to food. to above normal 2020/2021 rainfall in most areas across the country. This has resulted in As of 30th November 2020, the 2020/2021 rain season had started in most parts Southern areas of the country experiencing of Zambia except for a few areas over Eastern and Muchinga Provinces. There was flooding in the projection period. an early onset in the North Western and Luapula Provinces, including parts of COVID-19 Impact: Agricultural labour Copperbelt and Northern Provinces, by the second dekad (11 – 20th) of October opportunities and other economic 2020. However, most parts of Zambia had a slightly late onset by the second dekad parameters are likely to be below normal at the national level due to the impacts of the (11 – 20th) of November 2020. Eastern Province, along with parts of Muchinga and COVID-19 pandemic. Lusaka Provinces, also had a late onset in the third dekad of November 2020. On the Inflation: This is assumed to remain other hand, areas around the Lundazi district, including some few parts of Mpika, manageable throughout the projection had not yet received effective rainfall by the end of the third dekad of November period. 2020. The cumulative rainfall performance since the start of the 2020/2021 rainfall season (1st July 2020 to 31st January 2021), indicates that Kasempa and Mbala have recorded the highest cumulative amounts of 1,159 mm and 1,007 mm respectively. In general, most areas in Zambia received above average rainfall during the onset. However, most parts of Eastern Province, including areas over Luapula (Chiengi, Nchelenge, Kaputa), Northern (Nsama, Nakonde, Mungwi, Senga Hill), Muchinga (Chinsali, Mpika, Isoka, Mafinga, Chama), Southern (Chikankata, Siavonga, Sinazongwe, Gwembe), Western (Sesheke, Mwandi, Mulobezi), and Lusaka (Luangwa) Provinces had received below normal rainfall of less than 500 mm. From meteorological station observations, Magoye had received 482 mm, with Choma and Mfuwe (Mambwe District) receiving 378 mm and 361 mm respectively,