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Utility 2050 Regulation, Investment and Innovation in a Rapid Energy Transition

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Utility 2050 Regulation, Investment and Innovation in a Rapid Energy Transition UTILITY 2050 REGULATION, INVESTMENT AND INNOVATION IN A RAPID ENERGY TRANSITION MARCH 2021 UTILITY 2050 - REGULATION, INVESTMENT AND INNOVATION IN A RAPID ENERGY TRANSITION THE UK’S NET-ZERO EMISSIONS BY 2050 TARGET BECAME LAW IN 2019 • WE KNOW THAT ACHIEVING IT WILL REQUIRE FAR-REACHING AND DISRUPTIVE CHANGE ACROSS MANY DIFFERENT SECTORS. • A KEY ELEMENT OF SUCCESS IS A VIRTUALLY CARBON FREE POWER SECTOR. • HOW WILL THIS AFFECT ENERGY UTILITIES? • WHAT NEEDS TO CHANGE FOR A DECARBONISED POWER SECTOR TO THRIVE? 2 UTILITY 2050 - REGULATION, INVESTMENT AND INNOVATION IN A RAPID ENERGY TRANSITION THE UTILITY 2050 PROJECT WAS A PARTNERSHIP OF ENERGY INDUSTRY PROFESSIONALS, FINANCIERS AND ACADEMICS WITH A SHARED OBJECTIVE TO EXPLORE WHAT NET ZERO COULD MEAN FOR THE ENERGY SECTOR. We found that there are growing The energy sector has an ‘innovation dilemma’: pressures in the retail and wholesale It is challenging to plan for and regulate the DECISIONS WITHIN THIS DILEMMA FALL INTO THREE BROAD markets caused by the net-zero energy market even 2-5 years ahead. Equally, CATEGORIES: energy transition. there is a pressing need to make decisions, in the face of deep uncertainties, which are (1) Enabling innovation whilst protecting These need a deeper rethink of the business commensurate with hitting the 2050 consumers in the retail market; models that make up the energy market and net-zero target. the regulation which supports them. (2) Evolving the business model for large generators; and (3) Balancing the contributions of retail Please cite this report as: Author affliations, titles and links and wholesale innovation. Hall, S., Cole, D., Workman, M., Hardy, J., Mazur, C., Anable, J., (2021) Utility 2050 – Regulation, investment and innovation in a rapid energy transition, Atkins, London Available at: . Steven Hall is an Academic Fellow at the Sustainability Research Institute at Leeds. Profle on this . David Cole is Director of Atkins Power business in UK and Europe and Head of Engineering Net Zero for Nuclear and Power Markets. Profle on this . Mark Workman is Director at Foresight Transitions. Profle on this . Jeff Hardy is a Senior Research Fellow, Society led low carbon transformations at Imperial College London. Profle on this . Christoph Mazur is Project Lead of Zero Carbon Rugeley Smart Local Energy System Design Demonstrator at Engie. Profle on this . Jillian Anable is a Professor with a Chair in Transport and Energy at the University of Leeds, Institute for Transport Studies. Profle on this . 3 UTILITY 2050 - REGULATION, INVESTMENT AND INNOVATION IN A RAPID ENERGY TRANSITION THE UTILITY 2050 PROJECT EXPLORED HOW A NET ZERO ENERGY TRANSITION NEEDS NEW UTILITY BUSINESS MODELS AND NEW CONSUMER RELATIONSHIPS. By launching our work in partnership with ATKINS, part of the SNC Lavallin Group, and their work on THE KEY MESSAGES FROM THE ‘Engineering Net Zero’, we can say more about UTILITY 2050 AND ATKINS ENGINEERING NET ZERO PROJECTS ARE: what needs to happen in the wholesale market. 1. We need rapid and bold decisions on the By partnering with the Energy Institute we can develop supply side to increase build rates and the commercial and skills implications of this research by lock-in secure low carbon supply. speaking to utilities and other sector stakeholders about 2. We need to manage consumer risk the size of the governance challenge and the impact of and maximise the fair participation of new business models on consumers. Together, these households in the energy transition. initiatives amount to more than the sum of their parts. 3. Delivering Net Zero requires new They show how co-ordinated strategic decisions can be made governance architectures and an ‘anticipatory’ culture to manage, that balance the increasing need for consumer participation shape and react to a fast moving with the concurrent urgency of setting in motion hard energy transition. engineering solutions. The work advocates the need for a co-ordinated approach at both ends of the market. This work further supports recent calls for new institutions of energy governance with powers to shape the wholesale and retail markets for the beneft of both consumers and the wider energy transition. This will give utilities the confdence to innovate and the fnance sector the confdence to invest. 44 UTILITY 2050 - REGULATION, INVESTMENT AND INNOVATION IN A RAPID ENERGY TRANSITION THE UTILITY 2050 PROJECT AND ATKINS ENGINEERING NET ZERO ARE COMPLEMENTARY AND SEPARATE PIECES OF ANALYSIS. The Utility 2050 project is a co-ordinated What is the size set of insights communicated in world Up to £21bn per year is at stake by 2050. of the prize? leading academic articles. > This is fnancial value for utilities to capture in > We need to reshape the retail What value is at stake? a net zero transition energy market to maximise The Engineering Net Zero project is a the contribution of the demand comprehensive professional study available side without exacerbating here Here, we summarise what they Which business Five crowd sourced business models were existing social inequalities. both mean when read together, and how models can capture > found to match well with these new values > they culminate in a compelling case for this value? in a Net Zero future Engineering commitments are pro-active decisions to be made which needed, and these will come require a new governance architecture > from innovations in wholesale in the UK energy market. What technological > There are few remaining technology barriers: > business models and modes barriers exist? Ensuring conditions for deployment is key of market participation. All the materials from the project are available on this link: We do not currently have Which consumers Consumers spit into four segments: Some the governance capacity to will select which > affuent consumers will adopt these models > make these decisions. We business models? while others face further market disengagement are reaching the limits of an ‘incremental’ approach to Experts can agree principles for regulating system regulation and should How do we innovate these issues. Evidence based, facilitated adopt an ‘anticipatory’ model. responsibly? > > processes for doing so accelerate this. These components are explored in further detail below….. 5 UTILITY 2050 - REGULATION, INVESTMENT AND INNOVATION IN A RAPID ENERGY TRANSITION WHAT IS THE SIZE OF THE PRIZE? WHAT FINANCIAL VALUE IS AT STAKE? Utility 2050 has identifed up to £21 billion per year of new value is available by 2050 Our work is supported by other studies which show a large volume of latent fnancial value in energy transitions which the sector needs utility business model innovation to capture. in the net-zero energy system transition. This fnancial value falls into six ‘pools’: The National Infrastructure THE CLIMATE CHANGE THE INTERNATIONAL Commission COMMITTEE ENERGY AGENCY largest and most robust is energy service suggest a smart power in their 6th Carbon Budget in their Net Zero Emissions provision, which consists of heat and transport revolution could save suggest low-carbon investment scenario suggests power sector electrifcation with associated energy consumers will need to grow from investment will need to management and effciency gains. Flexibility is TRIPLE GLOBALLY BY 2030 TO a smaller market but critical to enable others PER YEAR £10bn - £50bn to thrive. Low carbon generation at a large £8bn BY 2030 A YEAR BY 2030 $2,200bn. scale, such as offshore windfarms, will also be a major contributor as will improvements Business model innovation needs supportive policy and regulation in both retail and wholesale in the effciency of existing energy plants. markets. Without an evolution of utility business models the energy transition could slow down. TOTAL VALUES TO BE CAPTURED PER POOL Up to £21bn of new value is available to electricity utilities per year by 2050 Plant effciency Service provision Local LC generation Large LC generation Flexibility optimisation CCS £75-1809m £5-9bn £42 -4600bn £0.61 - 8bn £400 - 2000m £0.14 - 1669m You can read more about how we got to these values in our research paper 66 UTILITY 2050 - REGULATION, INVESTMENT AND INNOVATION IN A RAPID ENERGY TRANSITION The electrifcation of heat and Energy service companies aim to This business model represents utilities transport is critical for a Net Zero reduce the consumer risk of investing in in the wholesale market exploring new future. Rather than simply allowing retroft, storage and microgeneration. ways of fnancing and operating Wind, demand to expand, electric utilities Energy measures can be fnanced from Nuclear, and CCS enabled generation. WHICH BUSINESS MODELS can become involved in and promote bill savings over the long term or be Atkins ENZ work has explored the the transition with domestic supported by a mix of grants and low engineering feasibility of achieving Net CAN CAPTURE THIS VALUE? consumers by offering heat and interest loans, projects such as Zero by 2050 and considered the roles of mobility tariffs which may come with energiesprong and Brighton and policy and market interventions to rewards for fexibility, along with other Hove Energy Services Cooperative support the energy transition. The next deals and contracts for the conversion are growing in social housing in new page shows how Atkins ENZ project has kit, i.e. heat pumps, domestic build developments and also in THIRD PARTY CONTROL assessed the suitability of the current Utility 2050 crowdsourced fve core effciency measure, electric vehicles communities. Though entrance into the policy and market framework for A third party, such as a price and chargers. Early signals of this can retail market is hampered by current business models that could capture delivering Net Zero. The Utility 2050 be seen in OVO’s heat pump trial and PEER-TO-PEER regulation, ESCO’s can combine many comparison website, takes project did not explore the Pure Low Octopus Energy’s smart EV tariff. aspects of fexibility, generation the new values created by the P2P customers directly buy, decisions on consumers’ behalf, Carbon Generator business model and electrifcation.
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