Israel and the Middle East News Update

Thursday, April 30

Headlines:

• , Blue and White: Coalition Definite Next Week • High Court to Hear Petitions Against Unity Government Next Week • Lapid Offers to Back Netanyahu in Canceling Rotation Deal with Gantz • Biden Says He’ll Keep US Embassy in Jerusalem if Elected • Senior Aid Says Biden Against Annexation • FBI Document Hints at Israeli Efforts to Help Trump in 2016 Campaign • Germany Classifies Hezbollah as Terrorist Organization, Conducts Raid • Israeli Land Lease at Tzofar Under Jordanian Peace Deal ends Thursday

Commentary:

• Yedioth Ahronoth: “Supreme Court Justices, Give the Government a Chance” - By Ben Dror Yemini, commentator at Yedioth Ahronoth • Al Monitor: “Can Anyone Stop Netanyahu’s Annexation Plans?” - By Ben Caspit, commentator at Al Monitor

S. Daniel Abraham Center for Middle East Peace 633 Pennsylvania Ave. NW, 5th Floor, Washington, DC 20004 www.centerpeace.org

News Excerpts April 30, 2020 Times of Likud, Blue and White: Coalition Definite Next Week With next Thursday’s deadline to build a coalition fast approaching, Likud and Blue and White officials expressed confidence on Wednesday night that they will pass the necessary legislation to enable a government in the week ahead. President Reuven Rivlin’s three-week mandate for any MK to obtain the support of 61 MKs to form a government expires next Thursday night at midnight. That has become the deadline to pass two separate bills that Likud and Blue and White see as a prerequisite for the government’s formation. A filibuster by Yesh -Telem put making that deadline into jeopardy. But Blue and White Benny Gantz, who is now Speaker, added three extra voting days in the Knesset plenum on Thursday, Sunday and next Sunday to ensure that the bills will be passed.

Ha’aretz High Court to Hear Petitions Against Unity Government Next Week The High Court of Justice is set to hear on Sunday and Monday eight petitions filed to it against the coalition agreement between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party and Benny Gantz's Kahol Lavan, and against allowing a person who is under criminal indictment – as Netanyahu currently is – to form a new government. Supreme Court President Justice Esther Hayut announced on Tuesday that 11 out of the court's 15 justices will hear the petitions. Earlier on Tuesday, Likud and Kahol Lavan submitted their official responses to the petitions, arguing that the High Court must not intervene in political matters. The court also accepted Attorney General Avichai Mendelblit's request to delay the deadline for his response to the petitions.

Ha’aretz Lapid Offers to Back Netanyahu in Canceling Rotation Deal With Gantz Yair Lapid on Monday offered Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu the support of his party, - Telem, if Netanyahu wants to cancel the prime ministerial rotation with Knesset Speaker Benny Gantz.“At any given moment that Bibi does not feel like carrying out the rotation, all he has to do is to come to me and say: ‘We want to return these laws to their original wording,’ and I want to tell you something – we will say yes,” said Lapid in a session of the Knesset Arrangements Committee on amending the Basic Law on the Government. The changes are intended to pave the way for the implementation of the coalition agreement between Netanyahu and Gantz and allow the automatic rotation of the prime ministership between the two.

Ha’aretz Biden Says He’ll Keep US Embassy in Jerusalem if Elected Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden said Wednesday that the US embassy in Israel would remain in Jerusalem if he’s elected, even as he called US President Donald Trump’s decision to move the diplomatic base from Tel Aviv “short-sighted and frivolous.” Biden, speaking during a virtual fundraiser, suggested relocating the embassy again would not help the stagnant peace process between Israel and the Palestinians. “But now that it’s done, I would not move the embassy back to Tel Aviv,” Biden said. Trump formally recognized Jerusalem as Israel’s capital in December 2017, when he announced plans to move the embassy there.

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I24 News Senior Aid Says Biden Against Annexation A top-level aide to former Vice President Joe Biden said Tuesday that the Democratic Party's presumptive presidential nominee is against Israel's unilateral annexation of the West Bank, as laid out in the Trump administration peace plan and which Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu supports. According to online publication Jewish Insider, senior foreign policy adviser Tony Blinken said that Biden had been “on the record several times [that] unilateral steps taken by either side that make the prospect of a negotiated two-state outcome less likely is something he opposes, and that includes annexation." Blinken made the comments while speaking via webinar to representatives of the Jewish Democratic Council of America. “In many ways, pulling the plug on a two-state solution is pulling the plug, potentially, on an Israel that is not only secure but is Jewish and democratic — for the future. That’s not something any of us, who are ardent supporters of Israel, would want to see,” Blinken added.

Times of Israel FBI Document Hints at Israeli Efforts to Help Trump in 2016 Campaign Roger Stone, a longtime confidant of President Donald Trump who was convicted last year in Robert Mueller’s investigation into ties between Russia and the Trump campaign, was in contact with one or more apparently well-connected Israelis at the height of the 2016 US presidential campaign, one of whom warned Stone that Trump was “going to be defeated unless we intervene” and promised “we have critical intel [sic].”The exchange between Stone and this Jerusalem-based contact appears in FBI documents made public on Tuesday. The documents — FBI affidavits submitted to obtain search warrants in the criminal investigation into Stone — were released following a court case brought by The Associated Press and other media organizations.

Ynet News Germany Classifies Hezbollah as Terrorist Organization, Conducts Raids Germany has banned Iran-backed Hezbollah activity on its soil and designated it a terrorist organization, the Interior Ministry said on Thursday. Police conducted early morning raids in Germany to detain suspected members of the group. Security officials believe up to 1,050 people in Germany are part of Hezbollah's extremist wing. "Interior Minister Horst Seehofer has banned the Shiite terrorist organization Hezbollah in Germany," tweeted a ministry spokesman. "Even in times of crisis, the rule of law is capable of acting," he added. Officials raided four mosque associations in the western state of North Rhine-Westphalia, Bremen and Berlin which they believe are close to Hezbollah. Germany had previously distinguished between Hezbollah's political arm and its military units.

Jerusalem Post Israeli Land Lease at Tzofar Under Jordanian Peace Deal ends Thursday Israeli farmers from Moshav Tzofar are scheduled to hold a small ceremony on Thursday afternoon to mark the end of a 25-year land lease from neighboring Jordan that had been set out under the terms of the 1994 peace deal between the two countries. Members of IDF Division 80 and farmers from Tzofar are set to take part in the ceremony Under an annex in the 1994 peace deal with Israel, a 25-year arrangement was reached in which land at Naharayim and Tzofar, which had been set to be returned to Jordan, remained in Israeli hands. It was expected that after 25 years, the Hashemite Kingdom would extend the arrangement. But in light of strained relations between Israel and Jordan, the Hashemite Kingdom ended the arrangement last year. 3

Yedioth Ahronoth – April 30, 2020 Supreme Court Justices, Give the Government a Chance

By Ben Dror Yemini, commentator at Yedioth Ahronoth

• On Sunday, the High Court of Justice, in an expanded panel of 11 justices, is due to hear the petitions against the coalition agreement. Many good people have pointed out the flaws in the agreement. It stipulates a huge government, wasteful, all the signatories mistrust each other, it requires basic laws to be changed for political needs. These are indeed problems. But striking down the agreement would be a much bigger problem. • In the last few years, allegations have repeatedly been made about the end of democracy or its fragility. It’s not at all clear whether these allegations are correct. But one thing is clear: a sweeping disqualification of the agreement will not strengthen democracy, it will hurt it. It’s true that the agreement contains some insufferable sections, like the revised Norwegian law, which is interesting because the signatories realized that this section was unreasonable. They didn’t wait for the High Court of Justice to disqualify it—they did so themselves. • The labor pains of the biggest government in Israel’s history are difficult. It comes after years of polarization and extremism and incitement and mutual invective. It’s not what the majority of the people want, neither the right wing nor the left wing, and certainly not the center. Israel needs a calming process. The only way to have one is by means of a unity government. It’s not that this government will resolve all the problems, nor will it quiet the serial inciters on social media. But, nevertheless, it is the first step in the process of national reconciliation. It will improve the situation. All the drawbacks that Yair Lapid has enumerated in the coalition agreement are less bad than another round of elections. After all, as the prophets of “the end of democracy” see it, another right-wing government would turn Israel into Turkey. So why do they want another election that is liable to put another right-wing government into power? • We are at a crossroads in the relationship between government and justice, and in the relationship between the rival blocs. The dilemma has been placed on the High Court of Justice’s doorstep. The fact that a panel of 11 judges was decided on is liable to indicate certain, very discouraging, intentions. Presumably, a big battery of jurists has already written all the arguments for disqualifying the agreement. • But judicial literalness is liable to be dangerous. We need a smart court, not a pedantic court, because sweeping disqualification of the agreement will not make Israel more democratic—it will only increase the rage over excessive meddling by the High Court of Justice. It will drag us into political chaos and to another round of elections. After all, this agreement contains sections with a bad taste, even very bad, but aside from the revised Norwegian law, it does not undermine democracy. So will the High Court justices be so kind as to restrain themselves. Coalition agreements, by nature, are not paragons of decency, good faith or distributive justice. But that’s politics. And a broad government, after all, is a new start. It contains the buds of reconciliation. Just the buds. We must not stop them from growing.

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Al Monitor – April 28, 2020 Can Anyone Stop Netanyahu’s Annexation Plans?

By Ben Caspit, commentator at Al Monitor

• Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Blue and White Chair Benny Gantz are trying to cobble together a unity government that provides each of the political rivals with veto power over almost every substantive decision or important appointment for the next three years. Gantz, however, gave in to Netanyahu on one particular issue: the prerogative of bringing to a vote, as of July 1, a proposal to annex parts of the West Bank or otherwise impose Israeli sovereignty over all the Jewish settlements there. It is the only issue over which Gantz and his party will have no veto power, and it is one that risks regional conflagration. • The prospects of establishing a power-sharing government remain unclear given the complex legislation required to make it happen and the petitions submitted to the Supreme Court challenging the deal. One thing, however, is clear: July 1 is shaping up to be one of the most significant and potentially dangerous dates for the future government as well as for the region. • In response to harsh criticism from the political left over the issue of annexation, Gantz’s no. 2, Lt. Gen. (res.) Gabi Ashkenazi, argues that Netanyahu at this moment has a Knesset majority to annex West Bank lands. “He does not need us to do so,” he told Al-Monitor. Ashkenazi also noted that each side in the government would have the same number of ministers and equal authority. “[This] will allow us to try and block the decision from within,” he continued. “Gantz and myself, slated as defense minister and foreign minister, will be members of the Security Cabinet. We will be in touch with the international community, with the Americans, with the states of the region. Netanyahu is a very experienced man, and we will help him understand the tremendous risks that lie in declaring unilateral annexation. We will also hold in-depth discussions of this issue in all relevant forums. If there is a way to block this process, we will find it.” • A group calling itself Commanders for Israel’s Security, comprised of hundreds of senior former army officers and security agency officials, have published major ads urging the government to forgo unilateral annexation. On April 23, Foreign Policy magazine ran an editorial by three members of the forum, among them former heads of the Mossad and Shin Bet, headlined “Netanyahu’s Annexation Plan Is a Threat to Israel’s National Security.” While ads and op-eds will not prevent annexation, discourse in the US media could be an important factor in the campaign to scuttle such a move. • Senior members of Commanders for Israel’s Security are not overly hopeful that pledges by Gantz and Ashkenazi to try to block the move using logic, common sense and risk assessments will carry the day. They believe more realistic prospects lie with the quartet of Jordanian King Abdullah II, Israel Defense Forces (IDF) Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Aviv Kochavi, Military Intelligence chief Tamir Hayman and Shin Bet Director Nadav Argaman. They are not counting too much on Mossad chief Yossi Cohen, who is perceived as a close Netanyahu associate and potential heir and as someone unlikely to sound the alarm against annexation as long as Netanyahu does not want him to do so. Still, Cohen is more independent than people give him credit, and he could end up surprising them.

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• A few more names can be added to the list of influential anti-annexation figures: Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden and his foreign policy staff and top Pentagon officials intimately familiar with the threat annexing the Jordan Valley poses, for example, to the Jordanian monarchy and to vital Jordan-Israel peace agreement (1994). Then there is President Donald Trump, who could find himself torn between pressure from his Christian evangelical base for immediate annexation by force, and some of his national security advisers, who could issue a stark warning against such a move. • Hectic contacts are underway behind the scenes among relevant parties, all of them under the radar and in complete secrecy. Abdullah is determined to prevent annexation and is mobilizing Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi to the cause. A dramatic move by these two leaders vis- à-vis the White House could also serve as a game changer. Two other influential regional players should also be taken into consideration: MBS and MBZ, i.e., the Saudi crown prince, Mohammed Bin Salman, and the crown prince of Abu Dhabi, Mohammed Bin Zayed Al Nahyan. The two previously delayed the annexation plan Netanyahu sought to implement last year. If they take advantage of the coronavirus crisis and regional instability to exert pressure on Trump, they would be putting the American president in a tough spot. A four-pronged offensive on Washington by Abdullah, Sisi and the two Gulf leaders could provide a counterbalance to the pressure Trump is likely to experience from his evangelical base, which is committed to Netanyahu, who is committed to annexation. • Netanyahu himself addressed American evangelicals by video on April 27 to mark the 100th anniversary of the San Remo Conference, which handed the mandate over Palestine to the British and expressed support for the establishment of a for the Jewish people there. In the speech, Netanyahu once again declared his determination to annex within months. “The option of presenting an Israeli annexation bill as of July is anchored in the coalition agreement,” he told his audience. • In addition to the clandestine struggle over annexation, the issue will also be played out in the Israeli domestic arena. Ashkenazi and Gantz, two former IDF chiefs and senior future members of the Security Cabinet, could exert their considerable influence to mobilize additional support for the view that unilateral annexation at this time is a real threat to regional stability and state security. They will need the support of the heads of Israel’s security and defense agencies. Their first task will be to block a hasty annexation of the kind Netanyahu tried to push through prior to the September 2019 elections. They will demand a series of in-depth Cabinet deliberations for which the IDF chief and other agency heads will present their assessments. Clear warnings about the repercussions of annexation voiced by Kochavi, Hayman and Argaman could provide the tailwind for influencing a linchpin member of the coalition, such as Chair Aryeh Deri, who throughout his long political career has taken some pragmatic and cautious approaches. • Cautious contacts on the issue are underway between various Israeli figures and the European Union. Both proponents and opponents of annexation are trying to mobilize support in Europe. According to an April 23 tweet by Channel 13 News correspondent Barak Ravid, France recently issued a stern warning against unilateral annexation. The US arena is more interesting, especially Biden’s stand on the issue. Biden does not seem keen on annexation, as reflected in various contacts, and is aware of the dangerous repercussions. (On April 28, one of Biden's top advisers confirmed the campaign opposed annexation of West Bank settlements.) The question is whether he will declare his position prior to the US elections in November, make do with leaks

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by his staff or opt for silence. Just as Trump is susceptible to the influence of his evangelical voters, Biden could likewise be vulnerable to the influence of “heavy” Jewish campaign donors who hold pragmatic, anti-annexation views. • Biden will also face pressure from the other side in the form of senior Jewish community figures beholden to Netanyahu. Could potential pressure from that direction encourage him to act even before November? Hard to say, at the moment. Either way, the Israeli government that is yet to be formed has a fascinating and complex obstacle course ahead if it moves toward the historic annexation of parts of the West Bank. It will be Netanyahu’s greatest test, but also a major challenge for his rival and partner, Gantz.

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