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The Pennsylvania State University The Graduate School College of the Liberal Arts BELOW REPLACEMENT FERTILITY IN EASTERN EUROPE: A CASE STUDY A Thesis in Sociology and Demography by Cristina Bradatan © 2004 Cristina Bradatan Submitted in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy December 2004 The thesis of Cristina Bradatan has been reviewed and approved* by the following: Nancy Landale Professor of Sociology and Demography Thesis Adviser Chair of Committee Robert Schoen Hoffman Professor of Family, Sociology and Demography Gordon De Jong Distinguished Professor of Sociology & Demography and Director, Graduate Program in Demography Michael Bernhard Associate Professor of Political Science Glenn Firebaugh Department Head and Professor of Sociology and Demography *Signatures are on file in the Graduate School. Abstract Below replacement level fertility currently characterizes most of the European countries. Researchers have tried to explain this particular situation; some of them have even characterized the situation as a “demographic shock,” following changes in political and economic systems, while others have interpreted the changes in fertility as a response to the pressure of a declining economy. Although there are significant changes in the attitudes regarding family and number of children all over Eastern Europe, and these attitudes play an important role in the fertility decline, the “second demographic transition” in Eastern Europe is not a very popular hypothesis, maybe because not all the characteristics of the second demographic transition (increase in number of children outside of marriage, high rates of cohabitation) are present in these countries. The present research analyzes fertility changes in Eastern European before and after 1990, focusing more on one country (Romania), and paying attention to the interrelationships between fertility and other demographic phenomena. The dissertation includes three chapters: Eastern European fertility, The politics of fertility in Romania and Influences of out-migration on fertility. Each of these chapters includes a short introduction, several sub-chapters and conclusions. Table of contents List of tables and figures………………………………………………………………v Acknowledgements……………………………………………………………………..vii Introduction ………………….……………………………………………………..1 1. Eastern European fertility..………………………………………………..........3 1.0. Introduction………………...............................................................................3 1.1. Demographic transition in Eastern Europe…………………………………...4 1.1.1. Theory of demographic transition………………………………….….4 1.1.2. Eastern Europe from the demographic transition perspective……….. 9 1.1.3. Demographic transition in Romania…………………………………19 1.2.Short history of fertility in Eastern Europe during communist era……….….24 1.2.2. Women and Family in Socialist Thinking……………………….......24 1.2.3. Policy context………………………………………………………...30 1.3.Fertility evolutions in Eastern Europe after 1990…………………………....41 1.3.2. Data…………………………………………………………………..42 1.3.3. Theories………………………………………………………………47 1.4.Conclusions…………………………………………………………….…….52 2. The Politics of Fertility and Their Effects in Romania………………............55 2.0. Introduction……………….............................................................................55 2.1.History matters ………………………………………………………………57 2.1.1. Short political history ………………………………..….……………57 2.1.2. Communism, abortion and eugenics………………………..…….…..60 2.2. Data and Interpretations…..……………………………………….………...67 2.2.1. Censuses………………………………….……………………….......67 2.2.2. Fertility surveys: 1967, 1974 and 1978……………………………….76 2.2.3. Individual data………………………………………………………...80 2.2.4. Postponement of fertility……………………………………………...88 2.3.Conclusions………………………………………..…………………………91 3. Influences of out -migration on fertility……………………………................92 3.0. Introduction………………..................................................................................92 3.1. Migration and fertility. Interrelationships………………………………………94 3.2. East –West Migration in Europe – levels and theories. ……………………….100 3.3. Data…………………………………………………………………………….107 3.3.1. Census data ………………………………..….…………………............109 3.3.2. Survey data ……………...………….…………………..………….……114 3.4. Conclusions…………………………………………………………………...124 4. Conclusions…………………………………………………………………………126 Bibliography………………………...………………………………………................132 List of tables and figures Table 1.1. Households in 1787…………………………………………………………..12 Table 1.2. Percentage never married in selected eastern European countries…………...13 Table 1.3. Age at marriage for regions from Eastern Europe…………………………..14 Table 1.4. Mean household size in the provinces of Bosnia-Herzegovina by religious affiliation, 1870………………………………………………………………...17 Table 1.5. Population by ethnicity, new and old territories, in 1930……………………20 Table 1.6. GFR rates for districts where the majority has a certain ethnicity, 1932…….21 Table 1.7. Natality rates for old Kingdom and Romania, 1910-1915…………………...22 Table 1.8. Proportion of legitimate-illegitimate births, 1932……………………………22 Table 1.9. Percentage of legitimate births in urban and rural settings, 1932……………22 Table 1.10. Rate of abortion ……………………………………………...……………..44 Table 1.11. Number of abortions, 1995……………………………………………...…44 Table 1.12. GDP in Eastern European countries, 1989-1992 …………………………..47 Table 2.1. Ethnic composition of Romania in 1930 and 2002…………………………..58 Table 2.2. Number of children born per 1000 women, by age groups…………………..67 Table 2.3. CFR from simulation and from 1977, 1992 censuses………………………..68 Table 2.4. Percentage of childless women………………………………………………68 Table 2.5. CFR for college educated women, 1977, 1992, 2002………………………..69 Table 2.6. CFR for high school educated women, 1977, 1992, 2002…………………...70 Table 2.7. CFR for elementary school educated women, 1977, 1992, 2002……………70 Table 2.8. Women with a college degree for all age groups, 1977, 1992, 2002………..70 Table 2.10. Women with elementary school education, 1977, 1992, 2002……………..71 Table 2. 11. CFR for Germans, Hungarian, Romanian and Gypsy women in 1992, 2002…………………………………………………………………………….73 Table 2.12. Number of children born per 1000 women in 2002, and simulated with 1992 ethnic structure………….………………………………………………………...74 Table 2.13. Distribution of births/abortions for first to fourth pregnancy………………82 Table 2.14. Distribution of births/abortions for the first pregnancy…………………….83 Table 2.15. Distribution of births/abortions for the second pregnancy…………………83 Table 2.16. Distribution of births/abortions for the third pregnancy…………………..83 Table 2.17. Distribution of births/abortions for the fourth pregnancy…………………83 Table 2.18. Percentage of women wanting another child………………………………90 Table 3.1. GDP in Eastern European countries……………………………….………...92 Table 3.2. Number of ethnic Germans living in Eastern Europe who migrated to Germany after 1990………………………………………………….……102 Table 3.3. Stock of immigrants from former Yugoslavian republics in European countries………………………………………………………………………………..103 Table 3.4. Difference in size between 1992 and 2002 ………………………………..109 Table 3.5. Number of women that are that should be alive in 2002, in the absence of migration………………………………………………………………………………..111 Table 3.6. Number of children ‘lost’ because of migration, for every 1000 women, 1992- 2002……………………………………………………………………………………112 Table 3.7. Estimated number of women-migrants ……………………………………112 v Table 3.8. TFR and number of women age 15-49 years………………………………113 Table 3.9.Demographic indicators in the poorest and richest counties………………..116 Table 3.10. Fertility of Romanians, Hungarians and Gypsies in Romania…………….118 Table 3.11. Regression coefficients……………………………………………………120 Table 3.12. Regression coefficients for analysis, fertility……………………………..122 Table 4.1. TFR for selected Eastern European countries……………………………....126 Table 4.2. Proportional change of TFR, 1986-2002…………………………………...127 Graphic 1.1. GDP per capita, Eastern Europe versus Western Europe …………………9 Graphic 1.2. Population in Eastern and Western Europe, 1820-1950………………….10 Graphic 1.3. Values of index of fertility control for selected countries………………..16 Graphic 1.4. TFR , Albania, 1960- 2003……………………………………………….32 Graphic 1.5. TFR in Hungary, 1950- 2003……………………………………………..34 Graphic 1.6. TFR in Poland, 1950-2003………………………………………………..35 Graphic 1.7. TFR in Czechoslovakia, 1950-1990………………………………………37 Graphic 1.8. TFR in Bulgaria, 1950-2003………………………………………………38 Graphic 1.9. TFR in Romania, 1956-2000……………………………………………...39 Graphic 1.10.Number of abortions per 1 live birth, Romania, 1967-1998……………...39 Graphic 1.11. Evolution of TFR between 1950-2000 in Eastern Europe, Western Europe and North America……………………………………………………………………….41 Graphic 1.12. TFR during 1960-1998, selected Eastern European countries…………..43 Graphic 1.13. Cohort fertility for females born during 1945-1965 in Eastern European countries………………………………………………………………………………….46 Graphic 1.14: TFR in Western, Southern, Eastern and Northern Europe……………....53 Graphic 2.1. Rate of natality, Romania, 1899-1966…………………………………….60 Graphic 2.2. Percentage of urban population, Romania, 1930-2000…………………...62 Graphic 2.3. TFR in Romania, 1956-2000……………………………………………...63 Graphic 2.4. Infant mortality, 1960-1972……………………………………………….65 Figure 2.5. States for model 1………………………………………………………...…82 Figure 2.6. States for model 2…………………………………………………………...82 Graphic 2.7..Rate of transition to a first pregnancy ending with a birth………………..85 Graphic 2.8. Rate of transition to a first