The New Normal − Weird Waters

November 2012 Vol. 37, No. 10

World Reports Covering Climate, Behavior, and Commodities Original Papers Historical Perspectives

©BRBREvelyn Browning Garriss WNINGWNINGN E W S L E T T E R A FRASER MANAGEMENT PUBLICATION THE NEW NORMAL − WEIRD WATERS

IN THIS ISSUE SUMMARY US National Hurricane Center model

Hurricane Sandy is a precursor for a stormier, but predicted that the tropical storm would • The hot Atlantic waters have produced not necessarily colder than average winter. The flow out of the Caribbean into the- At an extremely stormy hurricane season. El Niño conditions are fluctuating so they are lantic and shearing winds would kill it. Hurricane Sandy, for example, was able to hard for modelers to predict, but we will see the Instead, the waters off the East Coast grow to the largest Atlantic hurricane on were so hot that the storm grew faster record despite shearing winds. conditions and a potential weak El Niño will have some influence on the weather, warming the than the upper level winds could shear • In the Tropical Pacific, a cool Madden it and the winds ended up slamming the Julian Oscillation drifting through the West and providing cooler, wetter weather for system has stalled the warming El Niño the Southeast. storm into the US. [Editor’s note − Dis- conditions. This means that this year’s El cussion of Sandy’s impact will be in the Niño will be weak for most of its duration, News Notes] allowing cold air to plunge into the Mid- As you receive this issue, the US East west and Eastern US. Coast is recovering from Hurricane San- On the opposite side of the world, • Expect a warmer winter in western North dy, A.K.A. Frankenstorm. Originally, the scientists are going nuts because the America and a cooler, very wet winter in the East. This winter will see numerous Nor’easters. • Even a weak El Niño will be good for South American corn and soy production. • The hot Atlantic waters have shaped a poor growing season in Europe and are expected to create a cold winter, with plentiful Mediterranean moisture.

fig. 1 A busier than expected hurricane season, though relatively few storms CONTENTS menaced land. 1 The New Normal 5 South American 6 Europe and the 8 NEWS − Weird Waters Update Hot Atlantic NOTES Experts have had problems predicting hurricanes, Will a weak El Niño dim the How the hot waters that distorted the El Niño and the outlook for winter. Why is outlook for a good South Europe’s summer and hurt its crops this year so difficult and what is the best current American growing season? will shape the upcoming winter. outlook for winter?

This newsletter contains articles, observations and facts to We feel that the reader, attuned to the changes that are support our contention that man is significantly influenced occurring, may develop a competitive edge; and, by the climate in which he exists. Our calculations show the by understanding his now and future environment, can climate, over the next term, will cause dramatic changes in use the momentum of change to his advantage. our social and economic patterns. unfavorable winds. Instead of beheading the storm, the winds merely slammed Sandy into the East Coast. Meteorologists and climatologists look at weather differently. What the meteorologists are looking at is a dipping polar jet stream and the “Greenland block.” Nor- mally the eastward moving cold front would have pushed Sandy toward the Northeast. However, the “Greenland block”, a high- pressure area south of Greenland com- pletely blocked it from moving out into the Atlantic. Sandy was squeezed between the two, shooting her northwest. Climatologists are seeing such unusually hot water off the East Coast that normal shearing winds could not kill the storm. Instead, the hot waters kept the storm ex- panding in size even as the shearing winds kept it from growing in strength. (It is now the largest Atlantic hurricane on record.) Experts thought the cold front and hurricane would merge into a “weird hybrid” combining the cold storm with the hur- fig. 2 When monsters merge − a cold front and a hurricane. ricane. Instead, the hot waters kept Sandy http://www1.nasa.gov/images/content/700874main_20121026_Sandy-GOES_full.jpg tropical, so that she made landfall as a hurricane and retained tropical storm strength El Niño that most services were predicting Hot Water-The reasons are simple – and moisture all the way into eastern Penn- for late August/early September still hasn’t the waters off the East Coast are hot and sylvania. Then, the storm will merge with arrived! The Tropical Pacific has had El the expected El Niño never fully arrived. the cold front (like the notorious “Perfect Niño conditions for months, but is still too The El Niño will be discussed later; so Storm of 1991), and become a very power- wavering to fit the “official” definition of for now let’s focus on the Atlantic. The ful extratropical storm as it charges north an El Niño event. We see El Niño weather current off shore waters are between 1˚ towards New York and Canada. patterns, then a break, then a return to the -- 3.5˚C (1.8˚ -- 6.3˚F) warmer than nor- El Niño patterns. mal. Hurricanes are fueled by heat energy and Hurricane Sandy has In short, the weird ocean waters of 2012 Positive NAO entered a pool of fuel. The entire are bewildering the experts. Let’s see why North Atlantic has been abnor- and what the latest findings are. mally warm. Basically, the Atlantic heated up unusually fast (tempera- Sandy, Hurricanes tures in May were as warm as they Negative NAO normally are in July) and are slow- And Hot, Hot, Water ing down extraordinarily slowly. Did you hear the predictions about the The tropical Atlantic currents are quiet Atlantic hurricane season of 2012? flowing very fast and rushing warm Everyone, (including the Browning News- tropical waters north. letter) expected a normal to below normal The heat means stormier weather storm season. Groups that have had a 95% – more hurricanes and blizzards. accuracy rate predicted a low number of tropical storms. Instead, the East Coast is Hurricanes – Hot waters mean battling the remnants of Hurricane Sandy “zombie” hurricanes, storms that were and Tropical Storm Tony has already ap- supposed to die off but remain strong. peared and disappeared. The normal -sea We saw this early in the season with son has 9.6 storms and this season has had Hurricane Chris and we have just seen figs.3-4 nineteen. This is still far below the record it with Sandy. Tropical Storm Sandy was Negative NAO 28 storms in 2005, but it is still unusual. supposed to be destroyed by sheering patterns bring colder winds, but it kept reforming despite the and stormier weather along the East Coast.

Browning Newletter November 2012 page 2 It is extraordinary for a hurricane that warm, they tend to produce the “Green- of the El Niño. Its strong winds are over- has remained out to sea north of Virginia land bloc”. This is a characteristic pattern turning the region’s surface waters, cooling to veer inland. It has only happened six of a negative North Atlantic Oscillation the El Niño east of 120˚W, just as it previ- times in 143 years of records. All of these (NAO). ously had cooled the waters further west. were mid-season storms, occurring late Au- gust and in September, when the ocean is The NAO pattern can be described two This has baffled the models. Thema- hottest. (Even the “Perfect Storm” never hit ways. jority of global weather service models in August expected a mildly mod- land.) It is rare that the current waters are • Climatically, the Arctic air mass ex- so hot that this can happen. erate El Niño, with Tropical Pacific pands south in wintertime. When the temperatures between 0.5˚ − 1.0˚C (0.9˚ Sandy’s winds weren’t that strong, but Atlantic is hot, heating the air above − 1.8˚F), that would last until mid-spring. it entered a region that seldom sees hurri- forms a “high”, it limits the southward In September, the global models expected canes. As 2011’s Hurricane Irene and this movement of polar air. Instead, the air a weak event. In October, the official pro- summer’s derecho showed this region is un- plunges even deeper over the adjoin- nouncement by the US Climate Prediction usually vulnerable. ing air masses, in both North America Center was: and Europe Normally, the Atlantic Hurricane season “Borderline ENSO-neutral/ weak would end early with an El Niño out in • Meteorologically, the hot waters pro- El Niño conditions are expected to the Pacific. However, the Pacific El Niño duce blocking high-pressure areas over continue into Northern Hemisphere conditions are very weak and the Atlantic the Atlantic. This stops cool continen- winter 2012-13, possibly strengthen- is very hot. The hurricane season still has a tal storms from flowing out into the ing during the next few months.” month to go. ocean. Instead, cold front after cold front piles up over the East Coast. The “possibly strengthening” clause is Storms are quick to arrive over the because another MJO is drifting eastward Winter storms – This autumn’s Eastern Seaboard and slow to leave. hurricane season is an indication of what Just as Sandy was forced north into is coming in winter. It takes months for the Mid-Atlantic, so Gulf Coast land large water masses to cool and even as they storms will be forced north along the cool, they remain warmer than average for coastline in stormy Nor’easters. the season. Moreover, the recent measures of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, Expect a wet, stormy winter in the East. which indicates (among other things) In similar years, temperatures were near the speed of the Gulf Stream flow, show or slightly below normal in the Midwest, that the waters are speeding up. The same Northeast and Mid-Atlantic States, but the unusually warm ocean waters that have fu- stormy precipitation was above average. eled the tropical storm season will fuel the storms of winter. The Elusive El Niño The hot waters warm the atmosphere Since August, the Tropical Pacific has above, changing air pressure. Historically, repeatedly had El Niño conditions, with when the Northwest Atlantic is unusually water temperatures 0.5˚C (0.9˚F) above normal. However, according to international standards, the temperatures must remain above these temperatures for a three-month running average to be an official El Niño event. It hasn’t. Instead, smaller weather patterns, called Madden-Julian Oscilla- tions (MJO), have flowed eastward through the Tropical Pacific, cooling fig. 6-8The impact of different types portions of the develop- of El Ninos on US temperatures: ing El Niño. Currently, for example, a cool MJO top weak El Ninos, is in the eastern portion middle moderate to strong El Ninos, bottom the average impact of El Ninos

fig. 5 Models show an early exit for El Niño http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution- status-fcsts-web.pdf

Browning Newletter November 2012 page 3 through the Pacific and it is a warm, still canes, unlike most events. Part of that was Oscillation directed warm water off the oscillation that would increase the warm- that the Atlantic was hot, but unlike a pro- western coastline of North America. ing of the El Niño. What we have seen is longed El Niño event, the conditions have Current models are mostly based on that the El Niño has been warming in the occasionally allowed favorable winds for weather from the 1950s or later. We are waters behind the MJO. This new quieter storms to develop. It has provided enough trying to model some ancient weather MJO would increase the El Niños natural suppressing high altitude winds that only patterns with models designed based on warming, making the waters so still that one hurricane, Michael, grew to Category modern trends. Expect more surprises, the sun would bake the ocean’s surface. 3 strength. because the models are not working. This would increase the El Niño’s strength in mid-to-late November, lasting through Expect weak El Niño conditions December. through winter, with a strong probability Historical Patterns that the conditions will grow to mildly The strength of the El Niño is impor- moderate in December. Historical patterns are not as exact in tant to North America because it deter- their projections as models, but we have mines how far east the warming impact The Problem With hundreds of years of records. Let’s look at of the phenomenon will extend. In most what has happened in the past. In the five El Niños, Canada and the northern states Climate Models most similar years, we saw the following are warmer than normal and the southern weather patterns. states are colder. The Pacific jet stream flows What we see this year is that modelers through the southern states, bringing heavy who have been very good in the past have snows and rains. severe problems. El Niño models have dif- ficulty with warm tropical conditions that By contrast, a weak El Niño splits the fluctuate. The problem is that models need nation in an east/west pattern. The west is exact numbers and we have a very short warm, while the east is cool. The polar jet database. Satellite measurements started in stream brings more snow and moisture to the late seventies and early eighties. Uni- the Midwest, but California and the South- form land measurements for most of the western states are much drier. world’s landmasses date from 1950. Wide- The irony is that theEl Niño condi- spread measurements with reliable instru- tions may linger and strengthen, without ments started in the 1880s. In short, the ever fulfilling the official definition of models are using patterns seen over the “an El Niño” event. MJOs may continue past 60 – 130 years. Hurricane predictors to ripple through the El Niño waters cool- are constantly facing problems with the ing this or that portion of the phenome- turbulence of a super-heated ocean. non. The warm temperatures would appear Unfortunately, the natural patterns that repeatedly, influencing North American shape climate are older than the measure- weather, but with some interruptions, as ments. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation is we have seen since August. a 50-year cycle; the Atlantic Multidecadal For example, the wavering El Niño con- Oscillation lasts 70 years. There appears to ditions did not reduce the number of hurri- be a long-term solar cycle that lasts for cen- turies creating the Roman Warm Period, the cold Dark Ages, the Medieval Warm Early Winter* Period, the Little Ice Age and The Pacific Decadal contributing to our current Oscillation global warming. Models sup- plied with a century or less of data can’t cope. They were designed in cooler years. Most of their data is from the era when the Atlantic was much cooler and the Pacific Decadal

Mid Winter*

figs. 9-10 Cold Cool Warm Dry Wet Most models are based on weather patterns 5˚C or more 2-4˚C or 2-4˚C or 75% or 125% or above from the era when the Pacific Decadal Oscillation was lower than more more less of more of Warm phase normal lower than higher than normal normal Cool phase right positive. Now it is negative and changing the impact temps. normal normal moisture moisture of the cold tropical La Niñas and the hot El Niños. temps. temps. © Browning maps figs. 11-13 *, Moderate eruptions in the North Pacific will bring more moisture to the west. © Browning Newsletter Browning Newletter November 2012 page 4 The flickering El Niño has continued west. Western Canada gets warmer. The Warmer than average weather stretches to pile warmer water along the western Northeast and Southern Plains usually had from the Pacific Northwest through the shores of Central America and that water heavier precipitation. If, as satellite read- Prairie Provinces and northern states to is flowing north. The warmer than aver- ings indicate, a warm MJO will enter the Lake Michigan in 80% of similar years age waters are now as far north as San El Niño, increasing its warmth, we should and across to the East Coast in 40%. Francisco. When we have had weak El see the impact in late November and De- The Pacific jetstream usually ripples Niños, the wind patterns fluctuate more cember. through the entire southern tier of states than the warmth of the waters off the bringing cooler wetter weather. In 60% of California coast. The Pacific jet stream, EARLY WINTER: In early winter, the similar years, Florida and the Gulf states which in moderate El Niños brings cool, East and Midwest were hit by cold Arctic see winter tornadoes. wet weather through the southern tier of weather 80% of similar years. The cooler When looking at these types of years states, only consistently brings moisture temperatures extended through Canadian to the Gulf States and Southeast in weak from a heating and energy use perspective, eastern provinces down to the South- Canada usually has below average demand El Niños. It fluctuates in and out of Cali- east while the El Niño warmed the West fornia and the Southwest, bringing some while the Northeast and Midwest has av- Coast from British Columbia to Southern erage to slightly above average needs. The moisture but usually only normal to be- California. Storms brought rain and snow low normal amounts of snow and rain. early winter is usually deceptively cold, the through the Gulf and Eastern Seaboard. In rest of the season is normally wetter and In the five most similar years, we have 60% of similar years, the northern Great stormier than normal, but with near nor- usually seen the following weather pat- Plains was extremely stormy and the Ohio mal temperatures. terns: River Valley had below average precipitation. Meanwhile, we at the Browning News- letter extend our best wishes for those cli- Late Autumn: In most similar years, Mid-winter: The El Niño should ents in Hurricane Sandy’s path. November was normal to near normal be at its peak as mid-winter begins. This with warmer than average temperatures in usually brings a break to cold weather in the northern tier of states and the South- the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic states. SOUTH AMERICAN UPDATE

SUMMARY we can see that the main impact is The weaker El Niño will still provide good mois- more precipitation in northern re- ture levels for Brazilian and Argentinian corn gions of South America. and soybean crops. Further south Brazil saw the expected dry conditions in its north. Seasonal rains and favorable condi- Weaker El Niños have different impacts tions helped its central and southern than strong or moderate events. When summer crops. Indeed, the weakened 80% of weather services were expecting six El Niño may actually have improved months of El Niño and most expected a conditions, since abundant mois- moderate event, the Browning Newsletter ture was creating some problems for told its clients that South America would the nation’s winter wheat crop. The have a good crop season. moderating of the rain allowed some Now that it looks like the event will be drying of the wheat crop. fluctuating and be weak through much or Argentina has seen unseason- most of its duration, will it hurt the South able wetness across a large section American outlook? of its central croplands. This pro- Typically, the El Niño brings good rain vided abundant levels of moisture conditions for Southern Brazil and most for winter grains and summer crops of Argentina and dry weather for North- but kept some areas unfavorably wet ern South America and the Andes. The for planting. Corn planting is lag- drought conditions in Peru and Bolivia are ging by 8%. Now that the nation serious. Peru has historically been one of has good moisture for initial growth, the best record-keepers of the phenome- the weakening El Niño should non. Inca shaman could accurately predict allow some easing. the events weeks before they occurred. fig. 14 Most experts expect the El Niño Looking at the actual weather, during Predictions for South American rains conditions to strengthen in a few weeks. the weak, fluctuating El Niño conditions, November, December, January This will allow a return of abundant rain. http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/forecast/enso/index.html

Browning Newletter November 2012 page 5 fig. 15-16 Even weak El Niño conditions bring rainfall to South American croplands. Precipitation amounts, October 14-20 Argentina, left and Brazil, right http://www.usda.gov/oce/weather/pubs/ Weekly/Wwcb/wwcb.pdf

This fluctuation should be good crops, pro- Southern Hemisphere’s growing season posed. viding moisture but avoiding flooding. is just beginning. Unlike North America, where the weak El Niño is battling cold This is good news for a world that has In short, even a weak El Niño im- Arctic patterns, in South America the been waiting for better crops and lower proves the outlook for South American El Niño’s influence is relatively -unop food prices. soy and corn crops. Tropical climate patterns dominate summer weather and the EUROPE AND THE HOT ATLANTIC

SUMMARY natural Factors shaping Late Autumn and Winter’s Weather The warm Atlantics produced a very poor + growing season for many of Europe’s crops this + +9 + + + 9 + year. Typically, very cold winters follow sum- - 4 +2 3 - mers similar to this year. + + 1 - 3 ❂ 4 - 8 - + + + + 8 + - 6 + + Europe had a miserable summer this + + + year and its crop production reflects this. + - - + + - + + + 5 • Russia reported both an extremely - equator 5 + + 7 4 + low spring and winter wheat harvest + + + + - 4 - - due to drought. Its total wheat yield - + + + + + + + + is down 23% from last year, and 21% + + + below the 5-year average. + + - + • European Union (EU) corn produc- - - - tion is down 15% or 9.7 million from 1 The sun is entering the active phase of the 5 A cool MJO has interrupted the warm El Niño solar cycle. conditions. last year. After a promising beginning 2 The large eruption of Grímsvôtn has distorted 6 The Gulf Stream is fl owing fast and with good conditions and widespread Arctic winds. the North Atlantic is very warm, especially the planting, the southern tier of nations, 3 Large volcanic eruptions put climate-changing waters off North America’s East Coast. particularly the Rumania and Bulgaria debris in the stratosphere in 2009 and 2011. 7 The entire Indian Ocean is warming. were blasted with prolonged heat and 4 The Pacifi c volcanoes have been very active 8 Cool water off the West Coast, warmer off of dryness. Like the US crop, the heat was with many small and medium-sized eruptions. East Asia.

untimely and it hit during the sensitive © Browning Newsletter 9 Warm Arctic water. pollination season. The sunflower crop was also hit, affecting oil production, fig. 17 © Browning Newsletter though not as severely as corn.

Browning Newletter November 2012 page 6 • While Southern Europe baked, fig. 18 The Negative NAO brings Northeastern Europe faced day after cold, dry winters to Northern and day of rain. Persistent rain in the UK Eastern Europe. The Negative interfered with fieldwork and was NAO will dominate this winter. conducive to disease. As a result, the © Browning Newsletter wheat harvest is down 8% from last History indicates that the stronger the year. negative NAO, the further west the Arc- • Even more painful, drought, frost and tic air will plunge. Typically, the cold drops hail hit the French wine industry. Ex- through Scandinavia and Eastern Europe, perts predict the worst grape harvest including Russia and the Balkans. More in half a century. The harvest is- ex positive NAO years see the cold come from pected to slump by almost 20% and Siberia, like last year’s “Beast from the East” the Italian crop will be down 7%. Re- cold spell. Since the air is from the Arctic, it ports that are more specific show that Arctic intrusions of the negative NAO is dry. When it hits the warm marine mass of the harvest could decline by 40% in will be partially tempered by the warm- Mediterranean air, the moisture precipitates Champagne, with Bourgogne Beau- ing impact of an El Niño. The weather in out, creating extremely wet weather. Floods jolais expecting to decline 30%. Bor- Europe is more basic – the warm Atlan- occur 40% of the time. Meanwhile England deaux would get away lightly with a tic versus the cold Arctic. The prevailing is, as always, complex and complicated. It drop of 10 percent. westerlies bring warm, wet weather from frequently is hit with the cold weather, but the Atlantic while the Arctic air masses are usually is not as dry as its continental neigh- Just as the rapid flow of the Gulf Stream usually dry and frigid and frequently hit bors are. Indeed, in 60% of similar years, and hot Atlantic temperatures distorted Europe from Siberia. We have already seen Scotland and Northwest England had heavy precipitation patterns in the US, it shaped the first blast of cold, hitting the European rains while the southwestern counties were heat, drought and heavy rains in Europe. wine country. . In North America, the cold relatively dry. For Southern Europe, the Saharan High, Arctic intrusions of the negative NAO will Overall, planners looking for a good which normally brings heat and desert dry be partially tempered by the warming im- analogy year should look at the records for to North Africa, shifted north, baking all pact of an El Niño. shores of the Mediterranean. Meanwhile, the winter of 2005/2006. The year had bit- northern weather fronts passing through As noted in the first article, the warm ter cold, but was not as cold as the more the hot, moist Atlantic air mass rained out Atlantic waters tend to heat the atmo- recent winter of 2009/2010. sphere in the North Atlantic. This alters on the UK and Northeastern Europe. There is at least one compensation. Ac- air pressure, both highs and lows, which cording to experts, the quality of this year’s The heated Atlantic waters in turn alters wind and weather patterns. wine will be good as it is expected to be that shaped the summer will pro- The circumpolar winds weaken, allow- more concentrated. The memory of this duce a negative North Atlantic ing Arctic air to plunge south. In 80% year’s weather will be preserved with some Oscillation (NAO), which will intensify of similar years, Northern and Eastern excellent wine. this winter. In North America, the cold Europe had very cold, dry winters. News Notes

As this Newletter goes to press, the statistics for Hurricane $10 billion and economic losses of $10 billion to $20 billion.” Sandy, A.K.A. Frankenstorm, are beginning to emerge. If it hits $20 billion, it would be among the top 5 costliest U.S. Sandy affected 17 states and killed at least 55 people and left hurricanes — and the costliest one to hit the Northeast. eight million people without power before losing its tropical The trend used to be – “Go west, young man.” Now it’s characteristics. The storm has now merged with the cold front, “Go north, young corn!” As climate is changing, Kansas is energizing the storm front. It crossed Lake Ontario on Halloween abandoning corn and Canada is growing more. This year Kansas and is now wandering through Quebec and the Atlantic prov- planted fewer acres of corn, switching to less-thirsty crops such inces, while fortunately missing Toronto and Montreal. as wheat, sorghum and even triticale, a wheat-rye mix popular The combination of hot water and energy from the approaching in Poland. Meanwhile, corn acreage in Manitoba, a Canadian cold front allowed Sandy to break some major records. It was province about 700 miles north of Kansas, has nearly doubled the largest Atlantic hurricane on record, 945 miles in diameter. over the past decade due to weather changes and higher prices. According to analysis by Weather Decisions Technology (WDT) Agribusinesses, like giant Cargill Inc. have noted this trend and Sandy was a 500-to-1,000 year precipitation event for some parts are investing in northern U.S. facilities, anticipating increased of the Mid-Atlantic with a 100-250 year precipitation event for grain production in that part of the country. Areas that once only broader areas. Disaster modeling company Eqecat projected that produced wheat now have six to eight more days of frost-free “Hurricane Sandy is likely to cause insured losses of $5 billion to weather and can grow corn, soybeans and rapeseed (canola).

Browning Newletter November 2012 page 7 Even gardens are reflecting this trend. Look on the back of the o A warmer-than-usual Atlantic “favours a mild spring (espe- next pack of seeds you plant. The U.S. Department of Agriculture cially April), summer and autumn, in England and across this year updated its plant hardiness map for the first time since Europe.” 1990. Many regions have been shifted into zones that are 5˚F o The normal path of the jetstream changes dramatically be- warmer than in the late 20th century. tween phases but the exact path and mechanism has not been A new study is reporting what the Atlantic Multidecadal fully determined. Oscillation does to European climate. There have been o The warm Atlantic temperatures interact with the reduction multiple studies on the impact on North American, but combin- of Arctic sea ice and both influence the severity of European ing the records from the multiple European nations has been winters. much slower. This makes Rowan Sutton and Buwen Dong’s article “Atlantic Ocean influence on a shift in European climate While the warm Atlantic has brought heat and drought in the 1990s”, published in Nature Geoscience on October 7, this to North America and Southern Europe, less attention year, a milestone. has been paid to the impact the warm waters have had on Africa. However, the consequences have been just as dire. The warmer The study reviews European weather since 1930, covering two temperatures expanded the tropics, creating heavier monsoons that warm phases and one cold phase of the 60 – 70 year cycle. Here penetrated deeper into sub-Saharan Africa. As a result, flooding are some of the findings about the effects of the Positive AMO affected multiple countries in western and central Africa from July and its warmer waters. through October. Flood conditions continued in Nigeria in early fig. 19 October. The country’s National Emergency Management Agency reported that floods had killed 431 people and displaced 1.3 mil- When the lion more. Floods had also wiped out 152,575 hectares (377,020 North Atlantic acres) of farmland. Normally increased moisture would be good for is warm, rains agriculture, but decades of drought have led millions of Africans to shift through- settle in flood plains and low lands. The return of the African rains out Europe. was disastrous for this low-lying infrastructure. based on: “Atlantic Ocean So much attention has been paid to Hurricane Sandy that Influence on a Shift in European Climate in the no one has noticed another record-setting hurricane this 1990s”, by Rowan T. Sutton month. Tropical Storm Nadine tied the record this month & Buweng Dong, for the longest lasting Atlantic storm. On October 4, Nadine fi- Nature Geoscience-Letter October 7, 2012 nally broke up after wandering through the Atlantic for more than 21 days, the longest lasting storm since 1971’s Hurricane Ginger . During that time Nadine grew into a hurricane three times, lost its tropical status once, made two loops and brushed the Azores twice. The warm Atlantic waters kept providing fuel to resurrect Nadine, o The recent warming in the Atlantic Ocean is the main cause making Nadine another one of this season’s “zombie hurricanes”. of wet summers in northern and Central Europe. The longest lasting cyclone on record is 1994’s Hurricane John. o Meanwhile, southern Europe, from Portugal to Turkey, John formed during the strong El Niño waters of the Pacific, trav- gets far less rain than normal. eled 7,165 miles (13,280 km) and is one of the few storms to be both a hurricane (when it was in the east Pacific) and a typhoon (when it was in the west Pacific).

The opinions expressed are those of the writer, Meanwhile, decisions must be based on the best and although they are based on extensive studies available information and estimates. of physical data and phenomena, many statements This newsletter will not contain: published here are not entitled to be regarded as rig- The Browning • Analysis of, or recommendations concerning, orously proved in a scientific sense. Some decades any investment possibilities. Newsletter must pass before these issues are resolved. is published by • Recommendations on any particular course of action. Fraser NEW! PREMIER EDITION Management Need more in-depth information and analysis? We now offer a Premier Edition . Associates For more details, price, and subscribing information: a Registered Investment Advisor www.BrowningNewsletter.com For more information or an informational brochure call 1.802.658.0322 or e-mail us at [email protected] TheB ROWNING NEWSLETTER is published monthly at an annual subscription rate of $250 for print OR email version, $270 for both formats. Subscriptions should be directed to: TheB ROWNING NEWSLETTER www.BrowningNewsletter.com PO Box 1777 1-802-658-0322 Burlington, VT 05402 [email protected]

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