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White Paper on the Future of Weather and Climate Forecasting

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White Paper on the Future of Weather and Climate Forecasting WEATHER CLIMATE WATER Public-Private Engagement Publication No. 3 WMO Open Consultative Platform White Paper #1 Future of weather and climate forecasting WMO-No. 1263 Cover photo credits: © iStock © World Meteorological Organization, 2021 The right of publication in print, electronic and any other form and in any language is reserved by WMO. Short extracts from WMO publications may be reproduced without authorization, provided that the complete source is clearly indicated. Editorial correspondence and requests to publish, reproduce or translate this publication in part or in whole should be addressed to: Chairperson, Publications Board World Meteorological Organization (WMO) 7 bis, avenue de la Paix P.O. Box 2300 CH-1211 Geneva 2, Switzerland Tel.: +41 (0) 22 730 84 03 Fax: +41 (0) 22 730 81 17 Email: [email protected] ISBN 978-92-63-11263-7 NOTE The designations employed in WMO publications and the presentation of material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of WMO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area, or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. The mention of specific companies or products does not imply that they are endorsed or recommended by WMO in preference to others of a similar nature which are not mentioned or advertised. The findings, interpretations and conclusions expressed in WMO publications with named authors are those of the authors alone and do not necessarily reflect those of WMO or its Members. WEATHER CLIMATE WATER Public-Private Engagement Publication No. 3 WMO Open Consultative Platform White Paper #1 Future of weather and climate forecasting WMO-No. 1263 i CONTENTS FOREWORD ......................................................................V ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ............................................................1 1. INTRODUCTION ................................................................3 1.1 The need for a vision for climate forecasting and weather prediction .................3 1.2 Objective and scope of this White Paper .........................................4 2. WEATHER AND CLIMATE FORECASTING: SETTING THE SCENE ........................6 2.1 Brief history ................................................................6 2.2 WMO coordination role .......................................................7 2.3 Baseline 2020 .............................................................. 11 3. CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES IN THE COMING DECADE ........................12 3.1 Infrastructure for forecasting .................................................12 3.1.1 Observational ecosystem ...............................................13 3.1.2 High-performance computing ecosystem ..................................14 3.1.3 Changing landscape: advances in infrastructure through public–private engagement ..................................................15 3.2 Science and technology driving advancement of numerical prediction ..............16 3.2.1 Evolution of numerical Earth-system and weather-to-climate prediction ........17 3.2.2 High-resolution global ensembles ........................................19 3.2.3 Quality and diversity of models ..........................................19 3.2.4 Innovation through artificial intelligence and machine learning ...............19 3.2.5 Advancing together: leveraging through public–private engagement ...........20 ii 3.3 Operational forecasting: from global to local and urban prediction .................21 3.3.1 Computational challenges and cloud technology ...........................22 3.3.2 Verification and quality assurance ........................................23 3.3.3 Further automation of post-processing systems and the evolving role of human forecasters .......................................................24 3.3.4 Leveraging through public–private engagement ............................25 3.4 Acquiring value through weather and climate services ............................25 3.4.1 User perspective ......................................................26 3.4.2 Forecasts for decision support ...........................................26 3.4.3 Bridging between high-impact weather and climate services .................26 3.4.4 Education and training for future operational meteorologists/forecasters .......27 4. CONCLUSIONS. .28 4.1 Towards improved systems for forecasting: global, regional and local approaches .....28 4.2 Progressing together with developing countries .................................30 REFERENCES ....................................................................32 BIBLIOGRAPHY ..................................................................33 iii © iStock Amazing supercell in Colorado iv FOREWORD The advancement of our ability to predict This White Paper on the Future of Weather and Climate the weather and climate has been the core Forecasting is a collective endeavour of more than aspiration of a global community of scientists 30 lead scientists and experts to analyse trends, and practitioners, in the almost 150 years challenges and opportunities in a very dynamic of international cooperation in meteorology environment. The main purpose of the paper is to and related Earth system sciences. set directions and recommendations for scheduled progress, avoiding potential disruptions and leveraging The demand for weather and climate forecast opportunities through public–private engagement over information in support of critical decision-making the coming decade. This is done through description has grown rapidly during the last decade, and of three overarching components of the innovation will grow even faster in the coming years. Great cycle: infrastructure, research and development, and advances have been made in the utilization of operation. The paper presents the converging views of predictions in many areas of human activities. the contributors, but also accounts for some variations Nevertheless, further improvements in accuracy of those views in areas where different options exist for and precision, higher spatial and temporal advancing our capacity to predict weather and climate. resolution, and better description of uncertainty Thus, it informs and provides for intelligent choices are needed for realizing the full potential of based on local circumstances and resources. forecasts as enablers of a new level of weather- and climate-informed decision-making. I am pleased to present the White Paper on the Future of Weather and Climate Forecasting to the global audience and to encourage the use of its findings and In June 2019, WMO launched the Open Consultative recommendations by decision makers, practitioners and Platform (OCP), Partnership and Innovation for the scientists from all sectors of the weather and climate Next Generation of Weather and Climate Intelligence, enterprise. I would like to acknowledge, with much in recognition that the progress in weather and climate appreciation, the work done by Dr Gilbert Brunet, Chair services to the society will require a community-wide of the WMO Scientific Advisory Panel, as the lead author approach with participation of the stakeholders from and coordinator of the group of more than 30 prominent the public and private sectors, as well as academia and scientists and experts worldwide who contributed to the civil society. The OCP is expected to serve as a vehicle for paper. I would like also to express my sincere thanks to sustainable and constructive dialogue among sectors, all the contributing authors and reviewers for devoting to help articulate a common vision for the future of the their time and sharing their knowledge and foresight for weather and climate enterprise in the coming decade the benefit of the whole enterprise. and beyond. Undoubtedly, the 2020s will bring significant changes to the weather, climate and water community: on the one hand through rapid advancement of science and technology, and on the other hand through a swiftly Prof. Petteri Taalas changing landscape of stakeholders with evolving Secretary-General capabilities and roles. Such changes will affect the way weather and climate forecasts are produced and used. This is the reason the OCP selected the theme of “Forecasting and forecasters” as one of the “grand challenges” of the coming decade, which will require collective analytics to identify opportunities and risks and provide advice to planners and decision makers of relevant stakeholder organizations. v ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This paper has been prepared by a drafting team led by Gilbert Brunet, Chief Scientist and Group Executive Science and Innovation, Bureau of Meteorology, Chair of the Science Advisory Panel, World Meteorological Organization. The team of contributing authors includes (in alphabetical order): Peter Bauer Deputy Director, Research Department, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Natacha Bernier Director, Meteorological Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada Veronique Bouchet Acting Director General, Canadian Centre for Meteorological and Environmental Prediction, Meteorological Service of Canada, Environment and Climate Change Canada Andy Brown Director of Research, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Antonio Busalacchi President, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, USA Georgina Campbell Executive Director, ClimaCell.org; CSO and Co-Founder, ClimaCell & Rei Goffer Paul Davies Principal Fellow of Meteorology and Chief Meteorologist, Met Office,
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