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Arctic Requirements for High Resolution Reanalysis

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Arctic Requirements for High Resolution Reanalysis Arctic requirements for high resolution reanalysis Harald Schyberg Thanks to: Jun She (DMI), Malte Müller (MET Norway), Trond Iversen (MET Norway) h.schyberg<at>met.no Norwegian Meteorological Institute Outline (1) The increasing importance of the Arctic: changes under global warming, new economic activities, governance (2) Examples of potential users/usage areas for Arctic regional reanalysis (3) Related projects and datasets. How can Arctic regional reanalysis add value to already existing or planned global reanalysis and other datasets (4) Thoughts and suggestions on requirements for design of Arctic reanalysis What do we mean with «the Arctic»? Definitions differ – there is no universally agreed southern border: . The Arctic circle 66° 33ʹ N . From climatology: The July 10°C isotherm (roughly coincides with N border for forest) Here: Will not adhere to a strict definition, but it could be natural for C3S to have an interest in 1. key earth system processes 2. a geographical domain corresponding to European economical/administrative interests Illustration: Igesund/NPI Arctic climate – rapid change is seen Temperatures increasing more rapidly than the global average – the “Arctic Amplification” Sea ice – last 20 years: . Approximately half the summer coverage . Satellite and other data indicate a reduction of the order of 50% in sea ice thickness Summer sea ice volume roughly reduced to ¼ Permafrost temperatures have increased in most regions since the early 1980s Impacts on ecosystems, economic activities, climate feedbacks, … Climate change: The sea ice decline Snow and ice data provided by the National Center for Environmental Prediction/NOAA, NSIDC, U. Bremen Climate change: The sea ice decline (Sept.) Projected and hindcasted September sea ice extent (colors and shading) for IPPC climate models and observations (black line). The shading indicates the one standard deviation range in the hindcasts and projections. Credit: J. Stroeve and A. Barrett, National Snow and Ice Data Center Governance of the Arctic Some main elements: •National states •International agreements •International cooperation entities •Arctic Council •EU has just adapted a new policy for the Arctic Climate monitoring is one input for Arctic governance Governance of the Arctic International legal frameworks that applies to the Arctic: •The UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), which asserts jurisdictional rights of nations in the various maritime zones. •The Arctic Council is an international, intergovernmental forum - ”the primary body for circumpolar regional cooperation”. (The EU is an ad hoc observer to Arctic Council proceedings, 3 Member States are members of the Arctic Council, Denmark, Finland and Sweden, while seven Member States are permanent observers); Governance of the Arctic On more specialized areas: • The Barents Euro Arctic Council (BEAC) is the forum for intergovernmental and interregional cooperation in the Barents Region. The European Commission is a full member. • The Northern Dimension is a joint policy between the EU, Russia, Norway and Iceland. It was initiated in 1999 and aims at providing a framework to promote dialogue and concrete cooperation in issues such as economy, culture, environment and transport. • Transatlantic Ocean Research Alliance (US-Canada-Europe), the Galway agreement on ocean research, includes the Arctic. • The OSPAR Convention aims to protect the marine environment and ecosystems from emerging threats linked to pollution, maritime activities, together with climate change and increased human presence. • The International Maritime Organisation (IMO), a specialised agency of the United Nations with responsibility for the safety and security of shipping and the prevention of maritime pollution by ships. All EU Member States are IMO Members. The European Commission has an observer status. 27 April 2016: An integrated European Union policy for the Arctic Background: The European Parliament and the Council in 2014 asked the Commission and the High Representative to develop an integrated policy on Arctic matters, with a more coherent framework for EU action and funding programmes. A policy proposal that will guide the actions of the European Union in the Arctic region. 3 main policy objectives: . protecting and preserving the Arctic in cooperation with the people who live there . promoting sustainable use of resources . international cooperation. 39 actions listed An integrated EU policy for the Arctic - some of the 39 actions: • Maintain current funding levels for Arctic research under Horizon 2020 (on average 20 million per year). Around 40 million has already been earmarked for 2016 and 2017 for projects on observation, weather and climate change in the northern hemisphere and permafrost decrease. • Support the transnational access to research infrastructures in the Arctic and the open access to data resources. The EU’s Copernicus space programme is to support international research on climate change in the Arctic. • Enhance coordination between EU funding programmes relevant for the Arctic, identify key investment and research priorities as well as facilitate capacity building of stakeholders to maximise financial support for the region. AMAP Arctic council has six Working Groups. One of them is Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP). Project under AMAP: AACA - “Adaptation Actions for a Changing Arctic” – series of reports Example – some key messages from the draft Barents area AACA assessment • The Arctic will warm faster than the average global warming, and temperature projections suggest a winter-time increase of the order 3-10 ºC between 2015 and 2080 if the future follows the path of RCP4.5. The RCP8.5 scenario may push the warming up to 20 ºC. • A higher proportion of the precipitation is expected to fall as rain in the future, amplified by the sea-ice retreat and increasing the risk of rain-on- snow events • A number of natural hazards are connected to synoptic storms, such as rain- on-snow events, avalanches, and extreme wave heights, but the current projection do not provide robust indications of a change other than a poleward shift in the storm tracks • Polar lows are small and violent storms that represent a risk to activities in the Arctic, and projections for the future suggest less favourable environment for their occurrence 13 Example – some key messages from the draft Barents area AACA assessment (2) • The snow cover extent has decreased most at high latitudes (60-70°N), and the decline of snow cover in Eurasia over 2007-2014 has accelerated compared to earlier periods • The duration of the snow season has decreased, and the melt onset date in spring has advanced about 1-2 weeks in the 1979-2012, and the duration of snow-cover in 2050 will be about 30-40 % less than in 2011 • Observations of the snow quality suggests an increase in very hard snow layers from 1961 to 2009, with harder snow in early winter, more moist snow during spring, and future warming may bring more rain-on-snow events • The permafrost is thawing because of the Arctic warming, and the projected warming and increases in snow thickness will result in near-surface permafrost degradation over large geographic area 14 Some potential use areas for reanalysis • Economic sectors: natural resource exploitation, fisheries, tourism, transportation • Climate system process studies • Climate model validation • Climate change effect studies • Ecosystem change studies: permafrost degradation, increasing runoff, coastal erosion, reduced ice thickness • Arctic Populations/communities commonly distributed along or dependent on coastal waterways and river systems for access and subsistence • Input to governance and resource management • For instance Arctic Council and its “Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme” Managing the risks in economic activities: Reanalysis can contribute . Icing from seaspray . Sea ice, icebergs . Significant wave height . Storms . Extremely low temperature . High wind and low temperature . Currents . Sea states . Darkness 24/7 . Environment The Northern sea route Arcticportal.org Lloyds (2012): «Arctic Opening: Opportunity and Risk in the High North» (1) Some points from analysis of a leading international insurance company: •“Rapid and disruptive change in the Arctic environment presents uneven prospects for investment and economic development. All across the Arctic, changes in climate will create new vulnerabilities for infrastructure and present new design challenges. •The Arctic is likely to attract substantial investment over the coming decade, potentially reaching $100bn or more. However, given the high risk/potentially high reward nature of Arctic investment, this figure could be significantly higher or lower. •Arctic conditions will remain challenging and often unpredictable. Many of the operational risks to Arctic economic development – particularly oil and gas developments, and shipping – amplify one another. At the same time, the resilience of the Arctic’s ecosystems to withstand risk events is weak, and political and corporate sensitivity to a disaster is high.” 18 Lloyds (2012): «Arctic Opening: Opportunity and Risk in the High North» (2) •“The environmental consequences of disasters in the Arctic are likely to be worse than in other regions. •The challenges of Arctic development demand coordinated responses where viable, common standards where possible, transparency and best practice across the north. These frameworks need to be in place to enable sustainable development and
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