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Reanalysis Workshop, 19 May 2016 Copernicus Climate Change Service Regional Reanalysis Workshop, 19 May 2016 Reanalysis: the global context Adrian Simmons Consultant, Copernicus Climate Change Service European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Data assimilation and reanalysis Data assimilation provides estimates of the state of the atmosphere, ocean and land by blending information from ̶ the most-recent observations, which generally are of diverse types ̶ a short “background” model forecast that spreads the information from earlier observations in time, space and from variable to variable ̶ estimates of observation-error and background-error statistics ̶ relationships built into the model and the background-error statistics It was first proposed in the 1950s, and has provided the starting states for routine numerical weather forecasting since the 1970s Better estimates of the state of the Earth system can come either from better observations or from better data assimilation Reanalysis applies a fixed, modern assimilation system to a sequence of past observations, generally extending over decades Atmospheric reanalysis: starting points Has its origins in the production of datasets by ECMWF and GFDL for the 1979 Global Weather Experiment ̶ widely used, but superseded by use of multi-year operational NWP analyses ̶ but that use was hampered by the frequent changes made to the operational systems Subsequently proposed for climate-change studies by Bengtsson & Shukla (1988) and Trenberth & Olson (1988) Though proposed earlier by Roger Daley in 1983 for monitoring impacts of forecasting system changes on forecast accuracy Global atmospheric reanalyses from ECMWF, JMA, NASA and NCEP The first three responses were in the early to mid 1990s ̶ ERA-15 (1979 - 93), NASA/DAO (1980 - 93) and NCEP/NCAR (1948 - …) A second round of production followed – ERA-40 (1958 - 2001), JRA-25 (1979 - 2014) and NCEP/DOE (1979 - …) And a third – ERA-Interim (1979 - …), JRA-55 (1958 - …), NASA/MERRA (1979 - 2016) and NOAA/CFSR (1979 - 2011; extended to present with CFSv2 system) A fourth round has begun – MERRA-2 (1979 - …) is now up-to-date and continued close to real time – ERA5 has entered production, under the auspices of Copernicus/ECMWF – JRA-3Q is planned to enter production in Japanese Fiscal Year 2018 Reanalysis: becoming more diverse Met Office Regional EURO4M domain HIRLAM EURO4M atmospheric North domain American reanalysis Regional Reanalysis Reanalysis: becoming more diverse Met Office Regional EURO4M domain HIRLAM EURO4M atmospheric North domain American reanalysis Regional Reanalysis Century-scale reanalysis assimilating only surface observations Reanalysis: becoming more diverse Met Office Regional EURO4M domain HIRLAM EURO4M atmospheric North domain American reanalysis Regional Reanalysis Century-scale reanalysis assimilating only surface observations Reanalysis assimilating early upper-air observations From ~11km ocean-wave model, driven by short-range ~16km forecasts that downscale the ~125km ERA-PreSAT reanalysis Reanalysis: becoming more diverse Including aerosols, greenhouse gases, and reactive gases that influence air quality Reanalysis: becoming more diverse Including aerosols, greenhouse gases, and reactive gases that influence air quality Ocean and land-surface reanalysis Coupling atmosphere, ocean and more Many users of atmospheric reanalyses Downloads from data servers to tens of thousands of users with widespread applications (“Climate” is surveyed users’ most common field of work; Gregow et al., 2015) ~1000 citations per year for reference papers on the most popular reanalyses (NCEP/NCAR and ERA-Interim) Continued use of older products can be problematic: spread among different generations of reanalyses has been cited as evidence that products in general are unsuitable Reanalysis at the centre of the provision of climate services Adapted from a 2009 talk, with acknowledgments to Kevin Trenberth and organisers of the 2009 World Climate Conference-3 Surface air temperature anomaly for December 2015 Relative to 1981-2010, from Copernicus Climate Change Service monthly summary Relative to 1961-1990, from ECA&D, plus 1961-1990 and 1981-2010 climate norms Surface air temperature anomaly for December 2015 relative to 1981-2010 Reanalyses based on comprehensive data use, including synoptic observations Conventional analyses based on in situ data, from monthly climatological reports over land, one without and one with infilling Surface air temperature anomaly for December 2015 ERA-Interim, JRA-55, HadCRUT4 and GISTEMP are relative to 1981-2010 Australian Bureau of Meteorology data relative to 1961-1990 Global- and European-mean ERA-Interim surface air temperature anomalies From Copernicus Climate Change Service monthly summary for April 2016 April values are shown with darker bars Global-mean surface air temperature anomalies relative to 1981-2010 ERA-Interim Darker bars show spread of ERA-Interim, JRA-55, GISTEMP, the HadCRUT4 median and NOAAGlobalTemp February 2016 values are 0.86OC for ERA-Interim and 0.85OC for JRA-55 GISTEMP gives 0.86OC; HadCRUT4 and NOAAGlobalTemp both give 0.72OC 12-month running mean European surface air temperature anomalies relative to 1981-2010 Darker bars show spread of ERA-Interim, JRA-55, GISTEMP, the HadCRUT4 median and NOAAGlobalTemp Provisional comparison of HIRLAM regional EURO4M reanalysis with ERA-Interim, over a larger area that includes Greenland (from Per Kållberg) Next step under Copernicus for global reanalysis: ERA5 Replacement for ERA-Interim, in early stage of production, using: ̶ 2016 (rather than 2006) version of ECMWF data assimilation system ̶ ~30km (rather than ~80km) horizontal resolution and 137 (not 60) levels ̶ new analyses of sea-surface temperature and sea-ice concentration ̶ various new and reprocessed satellite data records providing: ̶ hourly output fields and an observational feedback archive ̶ uncertainty estimates from a 10-member ensemble data assimilation ̶ a land-surface analysis, downscaled to ~9km horizontal resolution from 1979 onwards, with: ̶ prompt operational extension forward in time ̶ possible later extension backwards in time.
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